We called the winner, undersold the margin, and the game was stranger than the score. Texas A&M won by 28 while being outgained 369 to 255, converting 3 of 12 third downs and running for 2.6 a carry. It won because Arizona State gave the ball away four times: a muffed punt at its own 8 that became the first touchdown, and two fourth-quarter interceptions that Marco Jones and Julio Humphrey returned for scores. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
Before the game we wrote down Texas A&M 33, Arizona State 18, and the game gave us 48 to 20, so we had the right winner and undersold the margin by 13 points, and the way A&M got there was stranger than the score lets on. A&M won by 28 while gaining fewer yards than Arizona State, 255 to 369, converting only 3 of its 12 third downs, and averaging 2.6 yards every time it ran the ball, which is about the distance from your floor to your ceiling. It won because Arizona State gave the ball away four times: a dropped punt at its own 8-yard line became A&M's first touchdown, and two interceptions in the fourth quarter were run back for touchdowns by A&M defenders Marco Jones and Julio Humphrey.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model was our computer's own guess, printed so you could compare · tells were three early signs; if they showed up, the game was going the way we said · edges were which team had the better side of each matchup · graded means we went back over each thing we said and marked it right, partly right, or wrong.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Six of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, three PARTLY, three WRONG: both Even chips on Aggie run blocking (92 yards at 2.6 a carry) and the Even on Coaching & Luck (turnover margin 4-1). The pass-rush chip graded PARTLY: one sack, seven hurries, and the pick-six that came off one. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 6 right, 3 half right, and 3 WRONG. Two of the misses were about A&M running the ball, which we called a toss-up twice and which went 92 yards at 2.6 a carry, and the third was calling coaching and luck a toss-up when the luck went all A&M's way, four turnovers to one. Our pass-rush call was half right: one sack, seven hurries, and one of those hurries became an interception returned for a touchdown. The full grading is in the recap.
The upset math did not apply: the base rate we printed said favorites of 14.5 or more win by a median of 28. Texas A&M won by exactly 28.
Why the big win was not a surprise: before the game we printed the history, which says teams favored by this much usually win by about 28 points. Texas A&M won by exactly 28.
Margin: 28 · Line was Texas A&M −14.5
Daymion Sanford dressed and did not play; Tawfiq Byard was not in pads. No late scratches to grade.