Nailbiter for Texas this week. I thought the game would be close but didn't expect it to come down to the last play! In any case I'm glad to be 4-0. The defense is for real and just need the offense to come along for the ride. Glad to have a bye week for a breather!
Texas, Week 6: we said Texas 24, Oklahoma 15; the game said Oklahoma 27, Texas 24. Wrong winner, for our call, the market and the model, the second of the season; of 16 claims, 6 right, 6 partly, 4 wrong, all three tells right, the kicking game and Coaching & Luck wrong in Oklahoma's favor and the Texas run blocking wrong in Texas's.
Texas A&M, Week 6: we said Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23; the game said 27–6. Winner right for the call, the market and the model, and the shape wrong by a lot: Missouri won on the ground, the Aggies ran for 29 yards and never scored a touchdown; of 16 claims, 6 right, 5 partly, 5 wrong, the three chips we gave A&M on defense all wrong, the coverage chip wrong a fourth week. Texas A&M, Week 5: we said Texas A&M 33, Arkansas 19; the game said 34–7. Winner right and the shape right, for the call, the market and the model, and all three undersold it by 13 to 15; of 16 claims, 5 right, 7 partly, 4 wrong, all four wrongs in A&M's favor, the coverage chip wrong a third week. Texas, Week 4: we said Texas 30, Tennessee 26; the game said 20–17. Winner right, margin off by one, and 19 fewer points than we wrote; of 16 claims, 4 right, 7 partly, 5 wrong, the worst an Even on Tennessee's protection against ten sacks. Texas A&M, Week 4: we said LSU 31, Texas A&M 22; the game said 35–6. Winner right for the call, the market and the model, and all three undersold it; of 16 claims, 5 right, 6 partly, 5 wrong, the coverage wrong a second week, the pass rush all the way wrong. Texas, Week 3: we said 44–14; the game said 30–6. Winner right, six high on each side, and the market's 30.5 did not cover; of 16 claims, 10 right, 4 partly, 2 wrong, the deep game wrong for a second week. Texas A&M, Week 3: we said 33–17; the game said Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21. Wrong winner, the first of the season, for our call, the market and the model; of 16 claims, 4 right, 4 partly, 8 wrong, every "big" chip wrong or partly. Texas, Week 2: we said Texas 26, Ohio State 24; the game said 24–23. Winner right, margin off by one; of 17 claims, 8 right, 5 partly, 4 wrong, every wrong chip about Texas throwing the ball. Texas A&M, Week 2: we said 33–18; the game said 48–20. Winner right, margin undersold by 13; of 16 claims, 7 right, 5 partly, 4 wrong. Texas, Week 1: we said 45–15; the game said 59–7; of 14 claims, 8 right, 4 partly, 2 wrong. Model vs. market, both teams through Week 6: market 6, model 5 on margin; the one game they picked different winners, the market was right and the model was wrong; straight up the market is 9-2 and the model 8-3. The wrong calls lead each recap, not a footnote at the bottom.
The Saturday Dispatch exists because I love college football, life gets busy, and I wanted one place where I could get the latest on my team to figure out if we’re good. Who the players are, how we’re playing, and how we match up against the opponent - kind of like the sports page of the newspaper.
I needed a scouting report, the kind I got when I played, and that is how the week runs here. The weekly scouting report goes out Monday morning and we’ll predict the winner based on advanced analytics of player performance statistics, flag injuries, and track storylines from beat writers and forums. On Sunday we’ll send a recap of the game by comparing our prediction to the armchair quarterbacks, talking heads, and beat writers, and break down each position by their stats to see where the team came up short or excelled. Then the fun part: by the end of the season we sort out which of those variables actually predicted winning and which just sounded like they should.
Gameday is special. I love the marching band - the snap of a snare drum, the crackle of the woodwinds, and the pop of a brass section finally getting to play as loud as humanly possible in the name of school spirit. I love the tailgate - the rumble of fresh ice settling between the layers of drinks in a fresh cooler, the swell of chatter around the sizzle of the grill, and the surprise of a new banger mixing in with the classic country hits on my Texas Tailgate playlist. I love the camaraderie - the walk down the hill to the stadium with the crowd, the faint echo of player warmups as the stadium fills up, and the sound of a hundred thousand strong singing “The Eyes of Texas” on a Saturday Night.
I started this project with the Texas Longhorns and the texas a&m aggies. If you like where this is going but prefer a different fight song, please request your team using the Sign Up button and we’ll get them in the rotation.
Enjoy!
The week runs like a team’s week. Monday is the Scouting Report: I pull the season’s play-by-play data, score every matchup unit against unit, name the players carrying each side, and make the call, a projected score, locked by a timestamped commit so nobody can move it later. Tuesday through Thursday are install days, one phase of the game a day, both sidelines: early downs and the run game, third down and the passing game, then the red zone, goal line, and special teams. Friday is the Walkthrough: who is in, who is out, where the betting line sits, and whether I am sticking with Monday’s call.
Sunday is the Film Session. Monday’s call, Friday’s revision, and every claim I printed during the week gets graded right, partly right, or wrong, and the misses go at the top. Every number either recomputes from the data or has a named source behind it. And every edition comes in two voices, the stat-head one and a plain-English one, for readers who want the answer without the vocabulary.
The long game is the part I am most curious about. Every graded call is also a test of the metrics themselves, and over a season the ledger shows which numbers actually saw the result coming and which just sounded smart. Making a call Monday and again Friday also answers a question nobody keeps score on: what is a week of information worth?