We called the wrong team, and so did the market and the model. Kentucky won by 10 as a 16.5-point underdog, the first wrong-winner call of the season for all three. It was 7–7 at the half; Kentucky scored 21 straight in the third, one drive off a failed fourth-and-2 at the Aggie 32. Kenny Minchey went 14 of 18 for 252 with throws of 53, 42 and 32 against a coverage we called a big Aggie edge; Reed threw 49 times for 236 at 4.8 an attempt with two interceptions. The run game we worried about was fine, 187 at 5.3. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
Before the game we wrote down Texas A&M 33, Kentucky 17, and the game gave us Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21, so we picked the wrong winner, and so did the betting line and our computer. It was tied at halftime. Kentucky then scored three straight touchdowns in the third quarter, one of them after A&M failed on a fourth-down try deep in its own end. Kentucky's quarterback completed 14 of 18 passes for 252 yards with three long completions against a pass defense we had said was A&M's strength, while A&M's quarterback threw 49 times for only 236 yards and had two passes caught by Kentucky. A&M ran the ball well, which was the part we worried about. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Two of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, four PARTLY, six WRONG. Every "big" chip pointed at Texas A&M and every one graded wrong or partly: Minchey's passing game (14 of 18 for 252) and Reed's (4.8 an attempt) were the two worst. The one chip that leaned Kentucky on the run game was wrong in the Aggies' favor. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 2 right, 4 half right, and 6 WRONG. Every matchup we called a big A&M advantage turned out wrong or only half right, and the two passing matchups were the worst misses. The one matchup where we favored Kentucky, A&M running the ball, went A&M's way instead.
The upset math applied: the base rate we printed said favorites of 14.5 or more were 712-38 since 2023. Make it 712-39.
Why the upset was rare, not impossible: before the game we printed the history, which said teams favored by this much had won 712 times and lost 38. This was loss number 39.
Margin: Kentucky by 10 · Line was Texas A&M −16.5
Settled: Tawfiq Byard made his Aggie debut (one tackle). Daymion Sanford, listed out on the SEC's Friday report, appears in the box score with four tackles; the recap carries it as the box score reports it. Morrow and Bethel-Roman, doubtful Friday, did not record a stat.