We had the right winner and nowhere near the right game. We wrote LSU 31, Texas A&M 22, a nine-point loss, and LSU won by 29. We were four low on LSU and 16 high on the Aggies, whose only points were David Olano field goals of 24 and 53 yards. The market had LSU by 8.75 on Monday and the model by 2, so all three picked LSU and all three undersold it; the market was the least wrong. The game was decided where our board said it would be, at the line of scrimmage when A&M threw: four LSU sacks for 41 yards, Marcel Reed 10 of 26 for 106. What we did not see coming was the other side of it. Our board had the Aggie pass rush as an edge against a line that had given up seven sacks; Sam Leavitt was not sacked once and went 17 of 23 for 312, with 163 yards and two touchdowns to Jackson Harris.
We picked the right winner, but we were way off on how the game would go. We wrote down LSU 31, Texas A&M 22, a nine-point LSU win. LSU won by 29. Texas A&M scored only six points, two field goals by its kicker, David Olano, from 24 and 53 yards. The betting line had LSU by about 9 and our computer had LSU by 2, so everyone picked LSU and everyone guessed too small. We did say the game would be won where the two lines of big players meet when A&M tried to pass, and it was: LSU tackled A&M's quarterback, Marcel Reed, behind the line four times, and he completed only 10 of 26 passes for 106 yards. What we got WRONG was the other half. We said A&M's pass rushers would get to LSU's quarterback, Sam Leavitt. They never tackled him once, and he completed 17 of 23 passes for 312 yards.
16 falsifiable claims graded: the score call, three tells, twelve matchup-board edges. Six storylines graded on whether they affected the game or the read. Full grades live in the season ledger (data/2026/season_ledger.csv), with each pregame claim quoted verbatim.
The call got the winner and missed the margin by 20. LSU 31, Texas A&M 22 said a one-score-plus game; it was 28–3 with six minutes left in the third quarter. The base rate we printed, favorites of 8 to 10 points in the first five weeks at 82-23 since 2023 with a median margin of 9, pointed at the call we made. This game landed three touchdowns past that median. The call is PARTLY right: the winner, not the game.
Our score prediction was PARTLY right: we had the winner, and we missed the size of the win by 20 points. We expected a game that stayed within about a touchdown and a field goal. By the middle of the third quarter it was 28 to 3. The history we printed said teams favored by this much usually win by about 9 points. This one won by 29.
The Aggie pass rush against LSU's protection, Texas A&M: wrong, and the worst chip on the page. We called it the one pairing that pointed the same way both years and said to count hurries rather than sacks. There was nothing to count: no sacks, two hurries all night (Marco Jones on Leavitt in the first quarter, DJ Hicks on backup Landen Clark in the fourth). A line that had allowed seven sacks in three games kept Leavitt upright on 23 throws.
Our worst miss was A&M's pass rush. We said A&M's defenders would get after LSU's quarterback, because LSU's blockers had let him get tackled seven times in three games. A&M did not tackle him behind the line once, and only hurried an LSU throw twice all night. Leavitt had time on nearly every pass.
Leavitt against the Aggie coverage, Even: wrong in LSU's favor. We made this a toss-up because a coverage that allowed 53, 42 and 32 to Kentucky had not earned a lean, and the lean it did not earn was LSU's. Leavitt averaged 13.6 an attempt with completions of 57 (a touchdown on fourth-and-1), 40, 36, 35 and 26. Harris, a receiver the scouting report never named, caught six for 163. The one Aggie win in the matchup was safety Marcus Ratcliffe's interception at the LSU 40, which became the 53-yard field goal.
We called LSU's passing against A&M's pass defense a toss-up, and it was not close. Leavitt gained 13.6 yards a throw, on average, with completions of 57, 40, 36, 35 and 26 yards. His receiver Jackson Harris, a player our scouting report never even mentioned, caught six passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. A&M safety Marcus Ratcliffe did intercept one pass, which led to A&M's second field goal.
Three more chips went the wrong way. Jones and Leavitt against the Aggie run defense, Texas A&M slight: LSU ran for 194 at 5.1 with three rushing touchdowns, and even before a fourth quarter of backups it was 22 carries for 95, 4.3 a carry and no Aggie edge. Owens and Edwards against the Tiger run defense, LSU: the two backs ran 15 times for 83 yards, 5.5 a carry, Rueben Owens 11 for 62; the two backs got only 15 carries, with Carsyn Baker taking 7 more. Coaching & Luck, Even: LSU went for it on fourth-and-1 from its own 43 and scored on a 57-yard throw; A&M went for it on fourth-and-1 from its own 34, Carsyn Baker was stopped for no gain, and LSU scored five plays later. Turnovers went 2-1 LSU's way.
Three more of our matchup calls were WRONG. We gave A&M a small edge in stopping LSU's running game; LSU ran for 194 yards and three touchdowns. We gave LSU the edge against A&M's running backs; the backs actually ran well, 83 yards on 15 carries, but they only got 15 carries. And we called coaching and luck a toss-up; both coaches went for it on fourth down needing one yard, LSU's try became a 57-yard touchdown pass, and A&M's was stopped short and turned into an LSU touchdown a few plays later.
Three of the LSU chips were right in direction and wrong in size. Reed's passing game against the Tiger secondary, LSU slight: 4.1 an attempt, no touchdowns, an interception by LSU safety Tamarcus Cooley at the Aggie 19. Aggie protection against the Tiger rush, LSU slight: four sacks, from Deuce Geralds, Cooley, Stephiylan Green and Princewill Umanmielen (a 17-yarder), for 41 yards. We graded both PARTLY, because "slight" is a size and the size was wrong. The Aggie line against the Tiger front in the run game, LSU big, is PARTLY for the opposite reason: the box says 2.8 a carry, but that counts the four sacks as runs; the non-sack carries went 29 for 132, 4.6 a carry, and LSU's front won big only on the two short-yardage snaps that mattered, the goal-to-go stall inside the 10 and the fourth-and-1.
Three of our LSU edges pointed the right way but were the wrong size. We said LSU had a small edge against Reed's passing; he gained 4.1 yards a throw, threw no touchdowns and had one caught by LSU safety Tamarcus Cooley. We said LSU had a small edge in rushing Reed; LSU tackled him behind the line four times for 41 lost yards. Both are PARTLY right, because we said small and it was not small. We said LSU's defensive front would win big against A&M's running game. That is PARTLY right too, for a different reason: the official total of 2.8 yards a carry counts those four quarterback tackles as runs, and A&M's real running plays gained 4.6 a carry. LSU's front won the two short runs that mattered most, near its goal line and on the fourth-and-1.
LSU went three-and-out on its first series, then went the length of the field from its own 18 in eight plays, a 19-yard catch by Harris, a 36-yard Dilin Jones run and Winston Watkins Jr.'s 15-yard catch on third-and-5 setting up Jones from the 1 for 7–0. The Aggies' first three possessions produced 33 yards and three punts, one of them set back by an ineligible-man-downfield flag that erased a 15-yard completion. Their fourth was the best drive they had: 15 plays from their own 32 across the quarter break, first-and-goal at the 7, then a one-yard Carsyn Baker run, two incompletions and a 24-yard Olano field goal for 7–3. After an exchange of punts, LSU answered just before the half with 83 yards in six plays, Watkins catches of 35 and 36 and Harris from 16 for 14–3. The third quarter was the game. A&M went three-and-out behind an 11-yard Cooley sack; LSU went for fourth-and-1 at its own 43 and Leavitt hit Harris for 57 and 21–3; A&M went for fourth-and-1 at its own 34 and Davhon Keys stopped Baker for nothing; Landen Clark, sharing the snaps since Leavitt pulled a hamstring in the second quarter, ran it in from the 4 five plays later for 28–3. Ratcliffe's interception set up Olano from 53, and LSU went 75 yards in six plays the other way, Harris for 40 and Clark from the 2 with 31 seconds left in the quarter, 35–6. The fourth quarter held two A&M interceptions, Cooley's off Reed at the Aggie 19 and Michael Turner Jr.'s off backup Brady Hart, and an LSU field goal miss from 24; nobody scored.
LSU scored first, driving 81 yards in the first quarter, including a 36-yard run by running back Dilin Jones, and Jones ran it in from one yard out. A&M's first three drives went nowhere, three punts. Its fourth drive was its best of the night, 15 plays, but it stalled seven yards from the end zone and A&M settled for a field goal, 7 to 3. Just before halftime LSU drove 83 yards in six plays, mostly on two long catches by receiver Winston Watkins Jr., and scored on a 16-yard pass to receiver Jackson Harris, 14 to 3. The third quarter decided it. Both teams went for it on fourth down needing one yard. LSU's try was a 57-yard touchdown pass to Harris; A&M's try was a run by Carsyn Baker that gained nothing, and LSU scored a few plays later. A&M safety Marcus Ratcliffe intercepted a pass, which set up a 53-yard field goal, but LSU scored again before the quarter ended to make it 35 to 6. Nobody scored in the fourth quarter. A&M's quarterbacks threw two interceptions, and LSU missed a short field goal.
| Texas A&M | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 197 | 506 |
| Passing / rushing | 106 / 91 | 312 / 194 |
| Yards an attempt (pass) | 3.9 | 11.1 |
| Rushing, carries (a carry) | 33 (2.8; four sacks count as runs) | 38 (5.1) |
| Sacks made | 0 | 4 |
| Third downs · fourth downs | 4 of 15 · 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 · 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 44 | 5 for 35 |
| Time of possession | 29:41 | 30:19 |
| The board's decisive gap | Both lines when the ball was thrown: four LSU sacks and 3.9 an attempt one way, zero Aggie sacks and 11.1 the other | |
Next week is Arkansas. Texas A&M and Arkansas, Saturday, Oct 3, 6 PM on ESPN2, per Texas A&M Athletics. The scouting report and a frozen call publish Monday morning. Two things carry over from Baton Rouge: the protection gave up four sacks in a night after four in the first three games, and the coverage allowed completions of 57, 40, 36, 35 and 26 a week after Kentucky's 53, 42 and 32.
Next week is Arkansas, on Saturday, Oct 3, at 6 PM on ESPN2. Our preview and our score prediction publish Monday morning. Two problems come with A&M from this game: its blockers let the quarterback get tackled behind the line four times in one night, as many as in the first three games combined, and its pass defense gave up long completions for the second week in a row, five of 26 yards or more this time.
| Line score | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| LSU | 7 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 35 |
One LSU touchdown drive and six punts, three each. The drive was 81 yards in eight plays, and the play in it was Jones's 36-yard run up the middle, which put LSU at the Aggie 24 and is most of why our third tell cleared its bar. Otherwise the defenses held: LSU's other three series gained 14 yards, and A&M's first three gained 33, with an ineligible-man flag wiping out its one long completion and no other catch longer than a yard. The quarter ended with the Aggies starting the 15-play drive that became their best of the night.
LSU scored once and both teams punted the rest of the time. LSU's scoring drive went 81 yards, and the biggest piece of it was one 36-yard run by Dilin Jones. Otherwise both defenses held up. A&M lost a 15-yard catch to a penalty for having a blocker too far down the field on a pass, and its first three drives gained 33 yards in all. The quarter ended with A&M in the middle of its best drive of the night.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | own 25 at 15:00 | 3 | 6 | PUNT | 0–0 |
| Texas A&M | own 30 at 13:51 | 4 | 15 | PUNT | 0–0 |
| LSU | own 18 at 12:23 | 8 | 81 | TD | 7–0 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 9:37 | 3 | -5 | PUNT | 0–7 |
| LSU | own 24 at 7:59 | 3 | 4 | PUNT | 7–0 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 5:47 | 4 | 23 | PUNT | 0–7 |
| LSU | own 20 at 2:57 | 3 | 4 | PUNT | 7–0 |
| Texas A&M | own 32 at 1:53 | 15 | 62 | FG | 3–7 |
The Aggies' drive reached first-and-goal at the 7 and got one yard on a Baker run before two incompletions, the first with Reed hurried by Dylan Carpenter and Malik Blocton; Olano's 24-yarder was the only time A&M reached the red zone. LSU's answer came late: after a punt, Leavitt hit Watkins for 35 on third-and-7 and, after a holding flag made it first-and-20, for 36 more, then Harris from 16 with 1:54 left. Reed was sacked by Geralds on the last Aggie snap of the half. The chip we called big for LSU, the front against the Aggie run game, showed up here and on the third-quarter fourth-and-1, and nowhere else.
A&M got to the LSU 7-yard line and could not get into the end zone: one short run, two missed passes, and a 24-yard field goal. It was the only time all night A&M got that close. LSU scored right before halftime on a six-play drive with two long catches by Watkins, 35 and 36 yards, and a 16-yard touchdown catch by Harris. LSU's front had been expected to win big against A&M's running game. The two places it clearly did were by its own goal line and on A&M's fourth-and-1.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | own 25 at 8:46 | 4 | 27 | PUNT | 7–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 6:12 | 3 | 3 | PUNT | 3–7 |
| LSU | own 17 at 4:06 | 6 | 83 | TD | 14–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 1:54 | 5 | 21 | END OF HALF | 3–14 |
Twenty-one points in nine possessions and two fourth-and-1 decisions. Kiffin went for it from his own 43 on LSU's first series of the half and Harris ran under a 57-yard touchdown. Elko went for it from his own 34 on the next one; Baker was stopped for no gain by Keys, and Clark, in for stretches since Leavitt pulled a hamstring in the second quarter, scored from the 4 five plays later. A&M's three possessions before Ratcliffe's interception netted 3 yards, with sacks of 11, 6 and 17 yards. The interception gave the Aggies the ball at the LSU 40 and they gained 4 yards and kicked from 53. LSU's reply was 75 yards in six plays, and the kickoff after it was muffed and recovered by Owens at his own 1. LSU lost linebacker Whit Weeks to a right ankle injury in the quarter; he left in a walking boot, and Kiffin said, "It looked really bad."
LSU scored three touchdowns and the game was over. The turning point was two fourth-down gambles, each needing one yard. LSU's coach, Lane Kiffin, went for it in his own half and got a 57-yard touchdown pass. A&M's coach, Mike Elko, went for it in his own half and got nothing, and LSU's backup quarterback, Landen Clark, ran in a touchdown five plays later. A&M's quarterback was tackled behind the line three times in the quarter, for 11, 6 and 17 yards. A&M's field goal came after an interception handed it the ball in LSU territory, and even then it gained only 4 yards. After LSU's last touchdown, A&M fumbled the kickoff and recovered it at its own 1-yard line.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 15:00 | 3 | -4 | PUNT | 3–14 |
| LSU | own 21 at 13:29 | 6 | 79 | TD | 21–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 10:57 | 4 | 9 | DOWNS | 3–21 |
| LSU | Texas A&M 34 at 8:39 | 5 | 34 | TD | 28–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 6:16 | 3 | -2 | PUNT | 3–28 |
| LSU | own 24 at 4:09 | 1 | 0 | INT | 28–3 |
| Texas A&M | LSU 40 at 4:04 | 4 | 4 | FG | 6–28 |
| LSU | own 25 at 3:22 | 6 | 75 | TD | 35–6 |
| Texas A&M | own 1 at 0:29 | 4 | 5 | INT | 6–35 |
Garbage time, with one thing worth keeping. Cooley intercepted Reed on third-and-15 from the Aggie 6, the Aggies' drive from their own 1; LSU got nothing from the Aggie 19 when Scott Starzyk missed from 24. Clark played the rest of the way and LSU ran 16 times for 99 yards, which is why LSU's rushing line reads 194 and why the ledger grades the run defense on the first three quarters as well as the total. Hart replaced Reed and threw an interception to Turner on his only attempt. The thing worth keeping is the punting: Tyler White averaged 51.9 on seven punts with three inside the 20, the one part of the board that went A&M's way all night.
Nobody scored. LSU's safety Tamarcus Cooley intercepted Reed deep in A&M territory, and LSU missed a 24-yard field goal after it. Both teams put in backups. LSU ran for 99 yards in the quarter, mostly with backups, which makes LSU's running total look bigger than the game really was. A&M's backup quarterback, Brady Hart, threw one pass and it was intercepted. The one bright spot for A&M all night was its punter, Tyler White, who averaged 51.9 yards on seven punts.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | Texas A&M 19 at 14:07 | 6 | 13 | MISSED FG | 35–6 |
| Texas A&M | own 20 at 12:08 | 6 | 20 | PUNT | 6–35 |
| LSU | own 7 at 9:45 | 7 | 25 | PUNT | 35–6 |
| Texas A&M | own 28 at 5:54 | 3 | 19 | INT | 6–35 |
| LSU | own 42 at 4:33 | 9 | 51 | DOWNS | 35–6 |
| Texas A&M | own 7 at 0:07 | 1 | 4 | END OF GAME | 6–35 |
Drives and the line score from the committed postgame snapshot (drives.json, games.json); the prose is ours and is graded with everything else. Two drives the snapshot leaves uncategorized, LSU's fourth-quarter series from its own 7 (a punt) and the last Aggie snap (the end of the game), are filled in from the play-by-play, as is the first one's start time.
Seven of 15 for 75 yards, 5.0 an attempt, under the five and a half we set; the 15th throw came with 49 seconds left in the half. The Kentucky problem followed him: he finished 10 of 26 for 106, 4.1 an attempt, with an interception and nothing longer than Isaiah Horton's 27-yarder. This is the tell rebuilt from last week's lesson, yards an attempt instead of completions, and it read the game correctly. RIGHT.
RIGHT. We said that if Reed gained under five and a half yards a throw over his first 15 passes, his struggles against Kentucky had followed him to LSU. He gained 5.0 a throw over those 15, and finished the night with 106 passing yards on 26 throws. Last week we watched the wrong number; this week the right number told the truth.
Five exactly, counting pass attempts and sacks the way the box does: hurries by Whit Weeks and by Carpenter and Blocton together, then sacks by Geralds, Cooley and Green, the 20th dropback coming midway through the third quarter. The game finished at four sacks and two hurried throws on 30 dropbacks. The pressure was real and it decided the passing game. RIGHT, though the chip it was meant to test was the one we called slight, not the one we called big.
RIGHT. We said that if LSU hurried or tackled Reed on five of his first 20 passing plays, LSU's pass rush was for real. It got exactly five: two hurried throws and three tackles behind the line. By the end LSU had tackled him behind the line four times. We had called LSU's pass-rush edge a small one, so the sign was right and the size we printed was not.
Seventy-four yards on the first 15, past the 60 we set, with the 15th coming at 2:20 of the second quarter. But 36 of the 74 came on one Jones carry; the other 14 went for 38, 2.7 a carry. The eye-discipline problem was still there, and it showed up in the air, 57, 40, 36, 35 and 26, far more than on the ground. Counting only Jones and Leavitt, as the tell's wording has it, the first 15 went for 75 and ran into the third quarter; the grade is the same. The read was right in direction and wrong in mechanism: PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We said that if LSU ran for 60 yards on its first 15 runs, A&M's defense still had the problem its coach described, defenders looking in the wrong place. LSU ran for 74, so the sign fired. But half of that came on one 36-yard run, and the other 14 runs gained only 38 yards. The defense did still have the problem; it just showed up on long passes much more than on runs. Counting only Jones and Leavitt, the total is 75, and the grade is the same.
All twelve pregame pairings, the edge we printed Tuesday, and what the game said. Chips are quoted verbatim from the scouting report.
| Pairing | Our call | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reed's Passing Game vs. the Tiger Secondary | Edge: LSU, slight | 10 of 26 for 106 (4.1), 0 TD, 1 INT (Cooley); longest 27; four passes broken up | Partly |
| The Aggie Line vs. the Tiger Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: LSU, big | 91 on 33 in the box, with four sacks counted as runs; non-sack carries 132 on 29 (4.6); stopped on fourth-and-1 and at the goal line | Partly |
| Owens and Edwards vs. the Tiger Run Defense | Edge: LSU | Owens 11-62 (5.6), Edwards 4-21 (5.3); Baker 7-15 with the fourth-and-1 stop | Wrong |
| Aggie Pass Protection vs. the Tiger Pass Rush | Edge: LSU, slight | 4 sacks for 41 yards and 2 hurried throws on 30 dropbacks; slight undersold it | Partly |
| Aggie Deep Game vs. Tiger Coverage | Edge: LSU, slight | One completion over 20 yards, Horton's 27; the deep game stayed where its number said | Right |
| Leavitt's Passing Game vs. Aggie Coverage | Edge: Even | 17 of 23 for 312 (13.6), 2 TD, 1 INT; completions of 57, 40, 36, 35, 26 | Wrong |
| Jones and Leavitt vs. the Aggie Run Defense | Edge: Texas A&M, slight | 194 on 38 (5.1), 3 rushing TD; 22 for 95 (4.3) through three quarters; Jones 14-63 | Wrong |
| The Tiger Line vs. the Aggie Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Even | 3 Aggie tackles for loss all night; about even through three quarters, LSU's at the goal line and in the fourth | Partly |
| Tiger Pass Protection vs. the Aggie Pass Rush | Edge: Texas A&M | 0 sacks; 2 hurries all night, one of them on the backup | Wrong |
| The Tiger Deep Game vs. the Aggie Big-Play Problem | Edge: LSU | Harris 57 (TD) and 40, Watkins 36 and 35, Harris 26; five completions of 25 or more | Right |
| Special Teams & Field Position | Edge: Texas A&M | White 7 punts at 51.9, 3 inside the 20; Olano 2 of 2 incl. a career-long 53; Starzyk missed from 24; one muffed kickoff, recovered at the 1 | Right |
| Coaching & Luck | Edge: Even | LSU's fourth-and-1 from its 43 became a 57-yard TD; A&M's from its 34 was stopped and became an LSU TD; turnovers 2-1 LSU | Wrong |
Reading the grades honestly: three of twelve right, four partly, five wrong. Five of the six chips that leaned LSU pointed the right way, two of them too small and one, the run-blocking chip, too big; the sixth, LSU over the Aggie backs, was wrong in A&M's favor. Of the six that leaned Texas A&M or sat at Even, only special teams went the Aggies' way. The two passing-game chips on LSU's side of the ball were the worst misses on the page. The coverage chip has now graded WRONG two weeks running, and the pass-rush chip went from PARTLY against Kentucky to WRONG. The lesson the next scouting report applies: a unit that has lost the same matchup two weeks running does not start the third week at Even or better on its 2025 number.
The honest summary: we got 3 of our 12 matchup calls right, 4 half right and 5 WRONG. Five of the six matchups where we favored LSU went LSU's way, often by more than we said; the exception was A&M's running backs, who ran well. Of the six where we favored A&M or called it a toss-up, only the kicking game went A&M's way. Our worst misses were A&M's pass defense, WRONG for the second week in a row, and its pass rush, which went from half right against Kentucky to WRONG. The lesson we are taking: when a part of a team has lost the same matchup two weeks in a row, we stop giving it the benefit of the doubt because of last year's numbers.
Our model said LSU by 2 (25.8–23.8); the market said LSU by 8.75 on Monday. Actual: LSU by 29. Model error 27, market error 20.25. Both had the winner; the market takes the week by being less wrong, which makes the season line market 4, model 3 on margin, and straight up the market 6-1 and the model 5-2. The one game they picked different winners is still the market's. The model's SP+ inputs had the two teams a tenth of a point apart; the market priced the home field plus the week's injury news, as our Tuesday page said, and neither priced a 29-point game. The published call stays with the market.
Our computer said LSU by 2, the betting line said LSU by about 9, and LSU won by 29. Both picked the right winner, and both guessed far too small. The betting line was closer, so it wins this week. Over the season, the betting line has now been closer in four games and our computer in three, and the betting line has picked the right winner six times out of seven. That is why our published score keeps following the betting line.
The base rate we printed Tuesday: favorites of 8 to 10 points in the first five weeks were 82-23 straight up since 2023, and the median margin across all 105 of those games was 9. Saturday was one more favorite's win, by 29, and the total came in 41 against 51.5 and 52. Raw rows: predictions.csv.
The film behind the grades. Every link below was verified live before publish; anything we could not verify was dropped rather than guessed at.
No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 10 LSU Tigers | Game Highlights (SEC, YouTube). Jones's 36-yarder, the goal-line stall, Watkins's two catches before the half, the fourth-and-1 touchdown and the one that failed. The condensed game is on the same channel.
Football Drops Road Contest at No. 10 LSU (Texas A&M Athletics), with Elko's full transcript and the postgame notes. The other side: Football Dominates No. 23 Texas A&M (LSU Athletics).
Leavitt's accuracy and Kiffin's 4th-down call ignite No. 10 LSU (AP via ESPN). Both coaches postgame, Leavitt's hamstring, Whit Weeks's ankle, and Reed pulled for Hart in the fourth.
Lane Kiffin Postgame Press Conference (Sept. 26, 2026) (LSU Sports, YouTube). Elko's is on KBTX.
How the game is landing, as of Sunday afternoon. These are conversations, not our claims; our claims are graded above.