Texas · Week 3 · The Scouting Report Install week of Sept 14–19

The Scouting Report: UTSA Comes to Austin

The whole plan, published Monday: a No. 1 team six days removed from the biggest comeback in program history hosts a 2-0 UTSA team with a three-year starting quarterback and a coach who is 1-16 against ranked opponents. Friday's Walkthrough affirmed the call at kickoff minus 24 hours; the daily install editions start Week 4.

Everything we think about this game, published Monday. Texas is the No. 1 team in the country, six days removed from the biggest comeback in the program's history, and it is hosting a UTSA team that is 2-0, has a quarterback in his third year as the starter, and has a coach who has beaten a ranked team once in 17 tries. On Friday we checked our call once more and kept it; the daily editions start next week.

Sat, Sept 19 · 7:00 PM CT · SEC Network+ (streaming, ESPN app; listed Friday) DKR–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin Line on Monday: Texas −30.5 · over/under 58.5 Line on Friday: Texas −30.5 (DraftKings) · −30 (Bovada) · over/under 58.5 / 58 Line on Saturday morning: unchanged Series: Texas leads 2-0 · last meeting Texas 56, UTSA 7 (Sept 14, 2024)

The Call · made Mon, Sept 14, and left alone · affirmed Fri, Sept 18graded Sunday

Texas 44

the call

UTSA 14

their side

Texas −30.5

the betting line, Monday

Texas by 25

our computer model

Why this number: The 44–14 call rides the market. DraftKings has Texas −30.5, Bovada −30, the total 58.5, and the moneyline works out to about a 95% chance Texas wins. Our computer model, built on SP+ ratings, says Texas 44–19, five and a half points kinder to the underdog than the market, and we print it so it can be graded, not so anyone should bet it; the market took the season's only split between the two. The history we printed in Week 1 still holds: since 2023, favorites of 29.5 or more are 274-1 with a median winning margin of 39, so the line is not a ceiling. What makes this number wrong: a hangover after Ohio State that shows up as early turnovers, and a UTSA offense that has already hit plays of 62, 75 and 53 yards against a Texas defense that ranks better than only 27 of 100 teams at holding a runner down once he gets past the first wave.

Why we picked this score: The people betting on this game have Texas as a 30-point favorite, so we wrote down a 30-point win, 44 to 14. Our own computer is a little kinder to UTSA and says Texas by 25, and we print that number so you can see it, but the betting line has been the better guide this season, so the line is what we follow. If 30 points sounds like a lot, here is the history: since 2023, teams favored by this much have won 274 games and lost one, and the usual win is by about 39 points, so if anything our number is on the modest side. How this goes wrong: Texas comes out flat after an emotional win, gives the ball away early, and UTSA, which already has three plays of 50 yards or more this season, breaks off a couple more.

The Walkthrough Revision, Fri Sept 18, 7:15 PM CT, kickoff minus 24 hours: the call stands at 44–14. What changed since Monday, and why none of it moves the number: DraftKings still has Texas −30.5 (it opened at −29.5) with the total 58.5; Bovada sits at −30 and 58, both unchanged all week, so the market has not moved off the call. The injury list resolved the way Monday's page assumed. Nick Townsend is out; Sarkisian said Thursday he "won't be able to go Saturday," so Spencer Shannon and Michael Masunas carry the tight end snaps with Emaree Winston. Derrek Cooper is back: "I think we'll get Derrek Cooper back this week, which will be great for us." Justus Terry got no update after Monday's "unable to push off of his foot" (Orangebloods reports turf toe), so he stays questionable; Xavier Filsaime was not mentioned this week. Sarkisian's Thursday line covers the rest: "We've got other guys with some bumps and bruises, and that's where the depth needs to start to step up so we can rotate some guys." None of it touches an edge on the board; the two names that matter to our read, Terry on the interior and Townsend as a blocker, were already discounted Monday. UTSA files no availability report for a non-conference game and its beat has nothing material; David Amador II, a Week 1 question mark, played against Texas State. Kickoff 7:00 PM is confirmed and the network is now listed: SEC Network+, the streaming feed on the ESPN app, not a cable channel. Saturday's two-minute read carries anything that changes overnight.

Our Friday check, Sept 18, a day before kickoff: we are keeping the score at 44 to 14. Here is what changed since Monday and why none of it moves our number. The betting line has not moved: Texas by 30.5 points at one book and 30 at another, with 58.5 total points expected, the same as Monday. The injuries settled the way we expected. Tight end Nick Townsend will not play; coach Steve Sarkisian said Thursday he "won't be able to go Saturday," so Spencer Shannon, Michael Masunas and Emaree Winston take his snaps. Running back Derrek Cooper is back: "I think we'll get Derrek Cooper back this week, which will be great for us." Defensive lineman Justus Terry got no new word after Monday, when Sarkisian said he was "unable to push off of his foot," so he is still a maybe; safety Xavier Filsaime was not mentioned this week. Sarkisian on the rest of the roster: "We've got other guys with some bumps and bruises, and that's where the depth needs to start to step up so we can rotate some guys." None of this changes any matchup on our board; we already counted on Terry and Townsend being out when we wrote the call. UTSA does not publish an injury list for a game outside its conference, and its beat writers report nothing new; receiver David Amador II, hurt in Week 1, played last week. The game is still 7:00 PM, and we now know where to watch: SEC Network+, which streams on the ESPN app rather than airing on a cable channel. Saturday's two-minute read will carry anything that changes overnight.

Three Tells, Measured Early

Texas's first two possessions. Against Ohio State they produced a fumble, an interception, and a 10–0 hole before the band had sat down. Two clean drives with points on one of them says the emotional hangover stayed in the locker room; a turnover says the 30-point line is about to feel long. This is the one tell we tied to the clock this week, because the start is the whole point.The first sign is the first two times Texas has the ball. Against Ohio State those two possessions produced a fumble, an interception, and a 10 to 0 hole before anyone had settled in. Two clean drives with points on at least one of them would tell us the emotional hangover from that night stayed in the locker room where it belongs. A turnover would tell us the 30-point betting line is about to feel very long. How Texas starts is the whole question.
UTSA's yards per snap over its first 25 plays. UTSA has runs of 75 and 53 and a catch of 62 already this season, and through two games Texas ranks better than only 27 of 100 teams at holding a runner down once he gets past the first wave. Under 4.0 a snap across those 25 says the tackling took; 6.0 or more, or a 20-yard play that starts with a missed tackle, says the Ohio State problem is still in the building.The second sign is how far UTSA moves the ball on its first 25 plays. UTSA has already had a 75-yard run, a 53-yard run, and a 62-yard catch this season, and Texas, through two games, has been one of the worst teams in the country at bringing a runner down once he gets past the first tackler. If UTSA averages under 4 yards a play on those first 25, the tackling has been fixed. If it averages 6 or more, or breaks off a 20-yard play that starts with a missed tackle, the problem from the Ohio State game is still there.
Third down, both ways, over each team's first six tries. Texas went 9 of 16 against Ohio State; UTSA is converting 25% this season. If UTSA converts two of its first six while Texas converts fewer than three of its own, the game is following UTSA's script, not ours.The third sign is third down, the play where you either get the yards or, most of the time, punt, and we are counting each team's first six of them. Texas came through on 9 of 16 against Ohio State; UTSA has come through on about one in four this season. If UTSA converts two of its first six while Texas converts fewer than three of its own, the game is following UTSA's script, not ours.

The words we use

The call is the final score we are predicting. We write it down on Monday and leave it alone, the way you would write your guess on a napkin before kickoff and not touch it after.

The market is the betting line, which is the number of points the people wagering real money expect the favorite to win by. Those people have been better at this than our computer so far, so our call leans on their number.

The model is our computer's own guess at the score, built from the season's numbers. We print it next to the betting line so you can see when the two agree and when they do not.

Tells are three early signs to watch in the first stretch of the game. If they show up, the game is going the way we said; if they do not, we were probably wrong, and you will know it before we do.

Edges are our answer, one matchup at a time, to the question of which team has the better side of it.

Graded means that on Sunday we go back over everything we said and mark each piece right, partly right, or wrong.

The Bottom Line

Texas should win this by four touchdowns, and the only path UTSA has to something closer is the one Ohio State walked for three quarters: early Texas mistakes and a quarterback who does not give the ball back. UTSA's Owen McCown has made 28 straight starts and has four touchdowns without an interception this season; UTSA is 2-0, took the I-35 game from Texas State on a touchdown with 14 seconds left, and averages 7.0 yards a play, a number that drops to 5.7 without its three longest plays. Our board says Texas almost everywhere the ball is in the air and in both trenches when UTSA has it; the one place it does not is the pocket, where last year's numbers gave UTSA's front a 40-point edge and this year's show a pass rush with one sack in two games. Texas has been the No. 1 team in the country since Sunday, coming off a night that ended at 11:30 with a one-point win, and that letdown spot is the reason the line is 30 and not 35.

We think Texas wins this one by about four touchdowns, and the only way UTSA makes it interesting is the way Ohio State did for three quarters last Saturday: Texas makes a couple of early mistakes, and the UTSA quarterback does not give the ball back. UTSA has the quarterback for that job. Owen McCown has started 28 games in a row, has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions this year, and just beat Texas State on a touchdown with 14 seconds left to go to 2-0. UTSA gains 7 yards every time it snaps the ball, which is a lot, though that drops to 5.7 once you set aside its three longest plays. Almost every number we have points to Texas, whether the ball is in the air or the two lines are pushing on each other. The one exception is when Texas drops back to throw: last year UTSA's pass rush was very good, though this year it has one sack in two games. What keeps the betting line at 30 instead of something bigger is the letdown question, because Texas woke up Sunday ranked No. 1 for the first time this season after a night that ended at 11:30 with a one-point win, and that is the kind of game that can leave a team a step slow the next week.

Common opponent: both teams beat Texas State this month, Texas 59–7 and UTSA 31–26, and each forced three Bobcat turnovers. Pace: these offenses averaged about 67 (Texas) and 71 (UTSA) snaps a game in 2025.

What success looks like for Texas

No early gifts. Two turnovers on the first two possessions built Ohio State's 10–0 lead; the first quarter against a 30-point underdog is about ball security, not style.No early gifts. Ohio State's 10–0 lead came from two Texas turnovers on the first two possessions; against a 30-point underdog, the first quarter is about holding onto the ball, not looking pretty.
Run it at the interior. UTSA's front is 13th percentile at line yards allowed and 12th at stuff rate in 2026; Smothers and Brown at 4.1 a carry last week should see 5 here.Run it up the middle. UTSA's front has been near the bottom of the country at stopping runs at the line this year; Smothers and Brown averaged 4.1 a carry last week and should see 5 here.
Keep McCown in front. UTSA's three longest plays account for the difference between 7.0 and 5.7 yards a snap; Texas's second-level tackling (27th percentile) is the thing to fix before Tennessee.Keep McCown in front of you. UTSA's three longest plays are the difference between 7.0 and 5.7 yards a snap; Texas's tackling once a runner gets past the first man (better than only 27 of 100 teams) is the thing to fix before Tennessee.

How UTSA keeps it interesting

Steal the first quarter. A clean McCown drive and a Texas turnover is the only script that makes DKR uneasy; Traylor's one win over a ranked team (Memphis, 2024) came from the front.Steal the first quarter. A clean McCown drive plus a Texas turnover is the only script that makes the stadium nervous; Traylor's one win over a ranked team (Memphis, 2024) came from his defensive front.
Get Henderson and Peterson to the second level. Runs of 75 and 53 yards already this season; UTSA's rushing success rate sits at the 90th percentile through two games.Get Henderson and Peterson past the first tackler. They already have runs of 75 and 53 yards this season, and UTSA's run game has been among the most consistent in the country through two games (better than 90 of 100 teams).
Win third down twice as often as usual. UTSA is 25% on third down in 2026; Texas converted 9 of 16 against the Buckeyes. Sustaining two long drives is how a 30-point line becomes a 20-point game.Win third down twice as often as usual. UTSA converts 25% this season; Texas converted 9 of 16 against Ohio State. Two long drives is how a 30-point line becomes a 20-point game.

The Matchup Board

Each bar is that side of the team's rank against every other team in the country, computed from the full 2025 season with garbage time removed; where this year's two games say something different, the note says so. The edge label on each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years.

Each bar shows how good that side of the team was last season compared with every other team in the country. The longer bar has the edge, and the label next to each matchup is our judgment after looking at both last season and the two games so far this year.

When Texas has the ball

The Quarterbacks: Manning vs. McCownEdge: Texas

63%

38%

Texas's passing offense sat at the 63rd percentile last season; UTSA allowed passing value at the 38th. Manning is coming off 5.3 an attempt against Ohio State's rebuilt secondary but led three fourth-quarter touchdown drives; McCown (28 straight starts, 489 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT in 2026) is the steadier stat line and the lesser arm. Texas threw the ball better than 63 of 100 teams last season, and UTSA's pass defense was better than only 38 of 100. Arch Manning had a rough day against Ohio State, 5.3 yards a throw, but led three touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. UTSA's Owen McCown has the steadier numbers this year, 489 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in 28 straight starts, and the weaker arm.

Texas OL vs. the Roadrunner Front (Run Blocking)Edge: Even

36%

54%

The baseline leans UTSA (36th percentile line yards against a 54th-percentile front), and the 2026 watch says the opposite: Texas 18th, UTSA 13th at line yards allowed, with a 12th-percentile stuff rate. Called Even until the interior shows the 103 second-half rushing yards from Saturday were a trend. Last season's numbers lean UTSA: its front was a little above average at stopping runs near the line and Texas's blocking a little below. This season's two games say the opposite, with UTSA's front near the bottom of the country at that job. We call it a toss-up until Texas's blockers show that the 103 rushing yards they got after halftime Saturday were a trend.

Smothers and Brown vs. the Roadrunner Run DefenseEdge: Texas, slight

39%

38%

A dead heat on the bar (39 vs. 38) that the roster tilts: UTSA allows rushing value at the 22nd percentile through two games, and Texas has two backs averaging 4.1 a carry against a real front. Slight, because Texas's own rushing efficiency (39th) is not a strength yet. On paper the two sides are dead even, 39 against 38 out of 100. What tips it is UTSA giving up a lot to running backs so far this year (better than only 22 of 100 teams) while Texas has two backs who averaged 4.1 a carry against a real defense. Only a slight edge, because Texas's own running game is not a strength yet either (39 of 100).

Texas Pass Protection vs. the Roadrunner Pass RushEdge: Even

42%

82%

The board's hardest chip. The 2025 baseline gives UTSA's front an 82nd-percentile havoc rate against 42nd-percentile Texas protection, a 40-point gap; the 2026 watch has UTSA at the 6th percentile with one sack in two games and Texas allowing three. Even until the first Manning dropback tells us which year it is. The hardest call on the board. Last season UTSA's pass rush blew up plays behind the line better than 82 of 100 teams and Texas's protection was below average, a 40-point gap. This season UTSA has one sack in two games and ranks near the bottom, while Texas has allowed three. A toss-up until Manning's first dropback tells us which year we are watching.

Texas Deep Game vs. Roadrunner CoverageEdge: Texas

92%

The widest gap on the board: a 92nd-percentile explosive passing offense against coverage that allowed explosive passes at the 4th percentile. The honest counter is last week, when Texas completed nothing longer than 21 yards, and the 2026 watch (UTSA 92nd at explosiveness allowed, two games). Texas, not big, because we called the last two deep-game chips wrong. The widest gap on the board: Texas hit long passes better than 92 of 100 teams last season, and UTSA gave them up worse than almost everyone (better than only 4 of 100). Two honest counters: last week Texas completed nothing longer than 21 yards, and UTSA has been good against long passes this year (92 of 100, two games). Texas gets the edge but not a big one, because we called the last two deep-passing matchups wrong.

When UTSA has the ball

McCown's Passing Game vs. Texas CoverageEdge: Even

61%

68%

UTSA's passing offense graded 68th last season against a Texas pass defense at the 61st, and the 2026 watch is uglier for Texas: 16th percentile at passing value allowed after Sayin's 278. McCown does not turn it over; Devin McCuin and DJ Allen are the targets. Even, and the tell below says when to move it. UTSA's passing was better than 68 of 100 teams last season and Texas's pass defense better than 61 of 100. This season is uglier for Texas: after Julian Sayin's 278 yards, Texas ranks near the bottom at pass defense (better than only 16 of 100). McCown does not give the ball away, and Devin McCuin and DJ Allen are his targets. A toss-up, and the tell below says when to move it.

Roadrunner Run Game vs. the Texas FrontEdge: Texas, slight

86%

74%

UTSA's rushing value sat at the 74th percentile last year and the 72nd so far; Texas's run defense at the 86th and 78th. The bar says Texas by 12; Henderson's 75-yarder and Peterson's 53 say the Texas second level (27th percentile at second-level yards allowed in 2026) is where it gets interesting. UTSA runs the ball well (better than 74 of 100 teams last year, 72 so far), and Texas stops the run better (86 last year, 78 so far). The bar says Texas by 12. Where it gets interesting is after the first tackler: Henderson's 75-yard run and Peterson's 53 are the kind Texas has been giving up this year, better than only 27 of 100 teams at stopping them.

Roadrunner OL vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking)Edge: Texas, big

78%

31%

Texas allowed line yards at the 78th percentile in 2025; UTSA's line generated them at the 31st. A 47-point gap, and Ohio State's line just managed 3.0 a carry against this front. Texas's front was very good at stopping runs at the line last season (better than 78 of 100 teams); UTSA's blockers were below average at creating them (31 of 100). That is a 47-point gap, and Ohio State's line, a much better one, just managed 3.0 a carry against this Texas front.

Roadrunner Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass RushEdge: Texas, big

82%

37%

An 82nd-percentile Texas front-seven havoc rate against 37th-percentile UTSA protection. Simmons, Lance Jackson and Cryer produced 2 sacks and 4 hurries against the best line they will see all year. The Sunday lesson applies here: count pressures, not sacks. Texas's pass rush blew up plays behind the line better than 82 of 100 teams last year; UTSA's protection was better than only 37 of 100. Colin Simmons, Lance Jackson and Cryer produced two sacks and four hurries against the best line they will see all season. The lesson from Sunday: count the hurries, not just the sacks.

Roadrunner Deep Game vs. Texas CoverageEdge: Texas

71%

29%

UTSA's explosive passing sat at the 29th percentile last year and the 9th so far; Texas allowed explosives at the 71st. The 43-yarders to Jeremiah Smith were a Jeremiah Smith problem. UTSA rarely hits the long pass (better than 29 of 100 teams last year, 9 so far), and Texas defends the long pass fairly well (71 of 100). The two 43-yard catches by Jeremiah Smith last week were a Jeremiah Smith problem, not a Texas one.

The margins

Special Teams & Field PositionEdge: Even

85%

88%

Both teams started drives at the 85th-to-88th-percentile spot last year and the kickers are a wash (83% vs. 85%). Texas started at its own 21 on average against Ohio State, mostly on its own turnovers. Both teams got good field position last year, among the best in the country, and the kickers are a wash (83% against 85%). Texas started at its own 21 on average against Ohio State, mostly because of its own turnovers.

Coaching & LuckEdge: Even

No computed bar. Traylor is 55-26 in year seven and 1-16 against ranked teams; Sarkisian's team just played the most emotional game of his tenure and gets the Roadrunners before Tennessee. UTSA is +5 in turnovers, Texas +1. Even, with the letdown noted. No bar here. UTSA's coach, Traylor, is 55-26 in year seven and 1-16 against ranked teams. Texas's coach, Sarkisian, just coached the most emotional game of his time here and gets UTSA the week before Tennessee. UTSA has come out 5 turnovers ahead this year, Texas 1. A toss-up, with the letdown noted.

Game-Week Intel

Texas Storylines

No. 1, for the first time this season. Both polls moved Texas to the top after the 24–23 comeback, with Ohio State sliding to sixth. Sarkisian spent Monday on the injury list and on UTSA; the letdown question is the week's real storyline and nobody on the roster will answer it before Saturday.
The injury list got longer. Tight end Nick Townsend hurt a knee on punt coverage in the third quarter against Ohio State ("We're going to continue to evaluate him to see when we can get him back. How long that will be, I don't know."); defensive tackle Justus Terry hurt a foot in warmups and did not play ("we were counting on him"); Xavier Filsaime missed a second straight game; Derrek Cooper dressed but did not play. Updated Sept 18: Townsend is out for UTSA (Sarkisian, Thursday), Cooper is back, Terry has had no update since Monday. The Walkthrough Revision in the call box carries it. No chip or number changed.
The second half was the offense we expected. Texas outgained Ohio State 239 to 132 after halftime and ran for 103 yards; Jeff Howe's Snap Judgments credited Kyle Flood's line for reestablishing the line of scrimmage. Tuesday's Early Downs slice is built on whether that carries against a front at the 13th percentile.

UTSA Storylines

McCown finally beat Texas State. The three-year starter (28 straight starts, son of Josh) lost his first two I-35 games and won the third on a 25-yard Brandon High Jr. run with 14 seconds left, after converting two fourth-and-5s from his own side of midfield. Win No. 100 in program history; 55 of them are Traylor's.
Three plays are the offense's whole reputation. A 62-yard catch by DJ Allen, a 75-yard Will Henderson III run and a 53-yard A'Marion Peterson run carry the 7.0 yards a play; without them the Roadrunners average 5.7. The board's second-level tell is built on this.
Traylor against ranked teams: 1-16. The one win was 44–36 over Memphis (25) in 2024. Texas has won the two meetings by 35 points on average (56–7 in 2024).

Chatter check: Longhorn spaces are still replaying the fourth quarter and arguing about the AP ballot; the UTSA game is being treated as a scrimmage before Tennessee, which is exactly the tone Sarkisian spent Monday pushing back on. Nothing in it moves a number on this page.

Availability & Injury Report · Texas, from Sarkisian's Monday and Thursday sessions (no conference report for a non-conference game). Nick Townsend · TE · knee · Out: "won't be able to go Saturday" (Thursday); Shannon, Masunas and Winston at tight end. Derrek Cooper · RB · ankle · Available: back this week, behind Smothers and Brown. Justus Terry · DT · foot · Questionable: no update since Monday; turf toe per Orangebloods. Xavier Filsaime · S · Out, no update: two straight games missed, not mentioned this week. Laurence Seymore III · OL · No concern: an "injury hiccup," Sarkisian. UTSA: no availability report; ESPN's injury page lists no Roadrunners; Amador II played Week 2 after a Week 1 scare. None of it changes our read; the Walkthrough Revision in the call box says why. Checked Friday, Sept 18, 7:15 PM CT; re-checked Saturday, Sept 19, 6:00 AM CT, nothing new from either beat, UTSA athletics confirms SEC Network+.

What the Data Says

Two sets of numbers: the full 2025 season, and 2026 through two games, which is a watch and not a verdict. Definitions for every metric live in the Data Dictionary.

Two sets of numbers: all of last season, and the two games so far this year, which is too early to trust. Every number is defined in the Data Dictionary.

Schedule-adjusted view (SP+)	Texas	UTSA
SP+ overall, 2025 (rank)	+16.2 (No. 17)	+3.7 (No. 62)
SP+ overall, 2026 (rank)	+25.0 (No. 6)	+2.1 (No. 65)
SP+ offense, 2026	+38.7	+31.4
SP+ defense, 2026 (lower is better)	+14.2	+29.4
Off. success rate, 2025 (pctl)	40.5% (29th)	45.5% (74th)
Off. explosiveness, 2025 (pctl)	1.37 (90th)	1.34 (83rd)
Def. success rate, 2025 (pctl)	39.4% (68th)	39.6% (65th)
Def. explosiveness, 2025 (pctl)	1.18 (79th)	1.38 (7th)
Turnover margin, 2025 / 2026	+14 / +1	+6 / +5
Sacks made, 2025 / 2026	39 / 4	24 / 1
2025 record	10-3	7-6
2026 results	59-7 Texas State, 24-23 Ohio State	45-16 UTRGV, 31-26 at Texas State

What the table says: UTSA's 2025 offense was better than Texas's on success rate and nearly as explosive, and its defense was the problem (7th percentile at explosiveness allowed). The 2026 Roadrunners are the reverse so far, efficient and not explosive, with a defense that has not been tested. The SP+ gap (25.0 vs. 2.1) is the whole line.

The install · daily editions start Week 4 (Sept 22)

The Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday editions start in Week 4. This week publishes the Walkthrough on Friday, the two-minute read Saturday, and the recap Sunday. Below is what the daily editions will cover when they start.

Tue · Early DownsThe Texas ground game against a UTSA front that has not stopped anyone yet. UTSA ranks 13th percentile at line yards allowed and 12th at stuff rate through two games; Texas ran for 3.4 a carry against Ohio State and 140 yards in the second half alone. The run ladder in full, both sides, plus the play-action it sets up for Manning.

Wed · Third DownManning on third down, and McCown on third down. Texas converted 9 of 16 against Ohio State; UTSA is 25% on third down in 2026. The pass ladder, protection against pressure (Texas has allowed 3 sacks; UTSA has made 1), and the Texas secondary after Jeremiah Smith's 164.

Thu · Red Zone & STThe red zone, again, and the field-position swing. Texas finished 3 of 3 inside the 5 in the fourth quarter last week after a field goal on its first trip; UTSA has scored on 36% of scoring opportunities' worth of points per trip in 2026. Goal-line power, turnovers (UTSA is +5), special teams.

Fri · WalkthroughThe digest, the availability sweep, and the Walkthrough Revision: our second look at the call, changed for a stated reason or confirmed, at kickoff minus 24 hours. Done Friday, Sept 18, 7:15 PM: the call affirmed.

Sources & Method

Data Dictionary, definitions, calculations and rationale for every metric used here.
CollegeFootballData.com: advanced metrics, SP+, player PPA, season stats, lines, rankings and the series (snapshots committed under data/2025/week3 and data/2026/week3); Friday lines from the data leg's 3:02 PM pull (data/2026/week3/lines_friday_texas.json).
Friday Walkthrough sources: Hook'em Headlines and The Daily Texan (Sarkisian, Thursday: Townsend out, Cooper back), Orangebloods (Terry, turf toe), SI Texas (SEC Network+, DraftKings line), ESPN UTSA injuries (none listed).
Austin American-Statesman, via Yahoo. Five things to know about UTSA (McCown's streak, the three explosive plays, Traylor's record vs. ranked teams).
247Sports. Sarkisian's Monday press conference: Townsend, Terry, Filsaime, Cooper.
On Texas Football (Jeff Howe). Snap Judgments on the Ohio State comeback (second-half yardage, the line of scrimmage).
Yahoo Sports. UTSA 31, Texas State 26: McCown's fourth-down conversions, High's winning run.

Our call follows the betting line, and our computer model is printed beside it for comparison, because the line has been the better guide: the one time they disagreed this season, Ohio State at Texas, the line was right. Not betting advice. Every claim on this page is graded Sunday, misses first.