Right winner, the margin within a point, and a different game from the one we described. We said Texas 30, Tennessee 26; Texas won 20–17 with 19 fewer points than we wrote. Tennessee's pass rush was as advertised, six sacks of Manning, one of them turning first-and-goal into a field goal. Everything else on Tennessee's side went the other way: Texas sacked Faizon Brandon ten times, Colin Simmons five of them to tie the school record, and Tennessee's backs ran 20 times for 67. Tennessee's touchdowns were a 57-yard punt return and a drive that scored with 1:22 left, then an onside kick it recovered before Jelani McDonald broke up the last pass. The model (Texas by 2) edged the market (Texas by 4) for the week. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
Before the game we wrote down Texas 30, Tennessee 26, and the game gave us Texas 20, Tennessee 17, so we had the right winner and missed the margin by one point, but the teams scored far less than we expected. Tennessee did chase Texas's quarterback, Arch Manning, tackling him behind the line six times. But Texas did it to Tennessee's quarterback ten times, five by Colin Simmons, which ties the Texas record, and Tennessee's running backs got almost nowhere. Tennessee scored on a punt return and a late drive, recovered a short onside kick, and Texas knocked away the last pass. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Three of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, four PARTLY, five WRONG. Tennessee's pass rush held; its run game and its run blocking went to Texas, and the Even on its protection (ten sacks) was the worst chip on the page. Special teams, a Texas chip, was wrong on the punt return and the flags. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 3 right, 4 half right, and 5 WRONG. Tennessee's pass rush was as good as we said, but its running game and its blocking were not, and our worst miss was calling Tennessee's pass blocking a toss-up. We also gave Texas the kicking game, and Tennessee returned a punt for a touchdown.
The upset math applied: the base rate we printed said favorites of 3.5 to 4.5 points in the first five weeks were 77-50 since 2023, and the median margin across all of those games is only 3. Texas won by exactly 3.
What the history said: teams favored by about 4 points in September had won 77 games and lost 50, usually by about 3 points. Texas won by 3.
Margin: Texas by 3 · Line was Texas −4 on Sunday night, −5.5 and −5 Saturday
Settled: Hollywood Smothers, probable on the SEC's Friday report and cleared on the final pregame report, warmed up and did not play a snap; Raleek Brown carried 17 times with both touchdowns. Colin Simmons, cleared since Thursday, had five sacks. Kobe Black played. Terry, Filsaime, Coleman and Townsend were out as listed. For Tennessee, DeSean Bishop, cleared, ran 11 times for 34; Faizon Brandon missed a series in the medical tent and returned. No player listed out or doubtful appears in the box score.