Wrong winner. We said Texas 31, Florida 21; Florida won 27–24. The market (Texas by 10 Monday, 11 to 11.5 by Friday) and the model (Texas by 16.2) were wrong with us, for the second week running. Texas led 17–3 in the second quarter on Ryan Niblett's 63-yard punt return, and then Florida scored 24 straight behind Tramell Jones Jr., a sophomore making his first career start because Aaron Philo had a shoulder injury. Florida ran 81 plays to Texas's 50 and held the ball 38:11; Texas was 2 of 10 on third down, failed on two fourth downs at midfield or its own 48 that both became Florida touchdowns, and lost the ball on Myles Graham's strip-sack with 1:58 left. The widest gap on our board, the Texas front against the Gator line, was the one Florida won. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
We picked the WRONG winner. We wrote down Texas 31, Florida 21, and Florida won 27 to 24. The betting line and our computer were wrong with us, for the second week in a row. Texas led 17 to 3 in the second quarter after Ryan Niblett returned a punt 63 yards for a touchdown, and then Florida scored 24 points in a row behind Tramell Jones Jr., a second-year quarterback starting his first college game because Aaron Philo had hurt his shoulder. Florida ran 81 plays to Texas's 50 and had the ball for 38 minutes; Texas converted only 2 of 10 third downs, failed twice on fourth down near midfield, and both times Florida went on to score a touchdown, and Texas fumbled on a sack with two minutes left. The biggest mismatch we predicted, Texas's defensive front against Florida's blockers, was the one Florida won. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Four of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, five PARTLY, three WRONG. The worst was the widest gap on the board, the Gator line against the Texas front, Texas at full size: Florida ran 42 times for 175 without the sack and the kneel-downs and made all five of its runs at two yards or less. The two chips about neither offense went the reverse of Dallas: Special Teams, Florida slight, was WRONG in Texas's favor (Niblett's touchdown), and Coaching & Luck, Even, was WRONG in Florida's (two failed Texas fourth downs, two Florida touchdowns). The Florida rush chip was right by five sacks. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 4 right, 5 half right and 3 WRONG. The worst was the one we were surest of, Texas's defensive front against Florida's blockers: Florida ran 42 times for 175 yards, leaving out a sack and the kneel-downs, and made every short-yardage run it tried. The two matchups that are not about either offense went the opposite way from Dallas: we gave the kicking game to Florida, and Texas scored a punt-return touchdown, which makes it WRONG; and we called coaching and luck a toss-up, and two failed Texas fourth downs turned into two Florida touchdowns, which makes that WRONG too. We said Florida's pass rush would win, and it sacked Manning five times. The full regrade is in the recap.
The upset math applied: the base rate we printed said favorites of 9.5 to 10.5 points in the first five weeks were 67-17 since 2023. Saturday was the one in five, for the second straight week. The sample is 2023 to 2025 and does not change.
What the history said: teams favored by about 10 points this early in a season had won 67 games and lost 17, so about one in five loses. Saturday was the one in five, for the second week in a row.
Margin: Florida by 3 · Line was Texas −10 on Monday, −11.5 at DraftKings and −11 at Bovada by Friday · Season line, model vs. market, all twelve graded rows: market 7, model 5 on margin; straight up market 9-3, model 8-4
Settled: Florida QB Aaron Philo, the starter on our scouting report, did not play; an AP source said Oct 14 he had a shoulder injury, the SEC's Wednesday report listed him questionable, and by Friday Florida was expected to start QB Tramell Jones Jr., who took every snap. WR Vernell Brown III (knee, questionable) has no stat; RB Duke Clark was ruled out; WR Bailey Stockton, questionable, played (4 catches). Texas: DL Justus Terry (questionable), WR Kaliq Lockett, DL Zion Williams and OL Jordan Coleman (out) have no stat; RB Hollywood Smothers ran 12 times. The AP reports EDGE Colin Simmons left in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury. No player listed out or doubtful appears in the box score.