Right winner, wrong game. We said LSU 31, Texas A&M 22; LSU won by 29, and the market (LSU by 8.75 on Monday) and the model (LSU by 2) undersold it too. Half the board came true: LSU sacked Marcel Reed four times for 41 yards and held him to 10 of 26 for 106, with an interception. The other half did not. The Aggie pass rush we called an edge never sacked Sam Leavitt, who went 17 of 23 for 312 with completions of 57, 40, 36, 35 and 26, 163 yards and two scores to Jackson Harris. Both coaches went for it on fourth-and-1 in the third quarter; LSU's became a 57-yard touchdown and A&M's became an LSU touchdown five plays later. The Aggies' six points were David Olano field goals of 24 and 53. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
Before the game we wrote down LSU 31, Texas A&M 22, and the game gave us LSU 35, Texas A&M 6, so we had the right winner and guessed the size of the win far too small, and so did the betting line and our computer. Part of our plan came true: LSU tackled A&M's quarterback, Marcel Reed, behind the line four times, and he completed only 10 of 26 passes. Part of it was WRONG: we said A&M's pass rushers would get to LSU's quarterback, Sam Leavitt, and they never tackled him once, while he completed 17 of 23 passes for 312 yards. Both coaches went for it on fourth down needing one yard; LSU's try was a 57-yard touchdown pass, and A&M's was stopped short. A&M's only points were two field goals. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Three of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, four PARTLY, five WRONG. Five of the six chips that leaned LSU pointed the right way, two of them too small; of the six that leaned Texas A&M or sat at Even, only special teams went the Aggies' way (Tyler White, 51.9 a punt). The coverage chip graded wrong for a second straight week, and the pass rush went from partly right against Kentucky to WRONG. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 3 right, 4 half right, and 5 WRONG. Most of the matchups where we favored LSU went LSU's way, often by more than we said. Of the ones where we favored A&M or called it a toss-up, only the kicking game went A&M's way. A&M's pass defense was one of our worst misses for the second week in a row, and its pass rush, half right against Kentucky, was WRONG this time.
The upset math applied: the base rate we printed said favorites of 8 to 10 points in the first five weeks were 82-23 since 2023, with a median margin of 9. LSU was one more favorite's win, by 29.
What the history said: teams favored by this much in September had won 82 games and lost 23, usually by about 9 points. LSU won, as most of them do, but by 29.
Margin: LSU by 29 · Line was LSU −8.75 on Monday, −8.5 and −7.5 Saturday
Settled: KJ Edwards, not listed after leaving the Kentucky game hurt, played and ran 4 times for 21. Ashton Bethel-Roman, questionable all week, was targeted once. Jamarion Morrow, doubtful on the SEC's Friday report, did not record a stat. Tamarcus Cooley, off LSU's report since Thursday, had a sack, an interception and three tackles. Ja'Keem Jackson, questionable, did not record a stat. No player listed out or doubtful appears in the box score.