Right winner, wrong shape, by a lot. We wrote Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23, a field-goal game decided by Austin Simmons throwing on the Aggie coverage; Missouri won by 21, A&M did not score a touchdown, and the game was decided by the thing we gave A&M: the run. Jamal Roberts carried 34 times for 222 yards and both Missouri touchdowns, Missouri ran for 252 on 44, and the Aggies ran 23 times for 29 yards, sacks included, 55 on the 20 carries that were not sacks, with no run longer than 9. Simmons, the quarterback with no interceptions, threw one on his third pass of the day and finished 14 of 28 for 147, 5.3 an attempt; the Aggie coverage we called the game's shape was the one unit that did its job. Marcel Reed was 19 of 39 for 187 with two interceptions and three sacks, and 133 of those yards came in the fourth quarter, down 20 and then 21 (Missouri Athletics' count; the play-by-play sums two yards higher for the game). The board was inverted: the three chips we leaned toward A&M on defense, the run defense, the run-blocking matchup and the pass rush, were all WRONG, and the one full Missouri edge on offense, Simmons against the coverage, was WRONG the other way. Five wrong chips, four of them in Missouri's favor, and the fifth, the coverage, in A&M's, for the fourth week running.
We picked the right winner and got the kind of game wrong, by a lot. We wrote down Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23, a close game that Missouri's passing would decide; Missouri won by 21, A&M never scored a touchdown, and Missouri won by running the ball, which is the part of the game we thought A&M would win. Missouri's running back Jamal Roberts carried 34 times for 222 yards and both touchdowns, and A&M ran 23 times for 29 yards, counting the three times its quarterback was tackled trying to pass; its longest run of the day was 9 yards. Missouri's quarterback, Austin Simmons, who had not thrown an interception all season, threw one on his third pass, and A&M's pass defense, the unit we expected to lose the game, was the one unit that held up. A&M's quarterback, Marcel Reed, completed 19 of 39 passes for 187 yards with two interceptions, and most of those yards came in the fourth quarter with the game already decided. Five of our matchup calls were WRONG: the three we gave A&M on defense, which Missouri won by running the ball, the toss-up on A&M's long passing, which Missouri won, and the one we gave Missouri on its passing, which A&M's pass defense won. That is the fourth week in a row we have been WRONG about A&M's pass defense.
16 falsifiable claims graded: the score call, three tells, twelve matchup-board edges. Six storylines graded on whether they affected the game or the read. Full grades live in the season ledger (data/2026/season_ledger.csv), with each pregame claim quoted verbatim. This recap was built Tuesday, Oct 13: the laptop's scheduling chain died Friday afternoon after the Walkthrough, so the Saturday card and the Sunday recap never ran on their slots. The Friday evening and 90-minute availability reports were read after the fact and are labeled that way below.
The call had the winner and nothing else: PARTLY, and a generous PARTLY. Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23 said a one-score game with 49 points in it; it was 10–3 at the half, 20–3 after three quarters and 27–6 at the end, 33 points, and the margin was 21 against the 3 we wrote. We were three points high on Missouri and seventeen high on A&M. Our confidence claims first: we printed the moneyline's 58% for Missouri on Monday and 63% by Friday, 37% for A&M at the close, and the base rate for favorites of 1.5 to 3.5 points in the first five weeks, 147-125 straight up since 2023 with a median margin of 2, and called it close to a coin flip. The favorite won, which is the 147 side, by 21, which is ten times the median; the base rate described a game this was not. The market's 2.5 was off by 18.5 and our model's 7.5 by 13.5, so the thing we print as a caution beat the thing we follow, by five points, for the fifth time in eleven games.
Our score prediction was PARTLY right, and only barely: we had the winner and nothing else. We expected a close game with about 49 points in it; Missouri led 10 to 3 at halftime, 20 to 3 after three quarters, and won 27 to 6, a 21-point margin where we said 3. We were three points too high on Missouri and seventeen too high on A&M. We said the odds gave Missouri about a 63% chance to win and called the game close to a coin flip based on the history of games with lines this small; the favorite won, as it usually does, but by ten times the typical margin. The betting line missed by 18.5 points and our own computer by 13.5, so the computer beat the line this week, for the fifth time in eleven games.
Roberts and the Tiger backs against the Aggie run defense, Texas A&M slight: WRONG, and the worst chip on the page. We leaned A&M because its rushing value allowed sat at the 85th percentile and Missouri's rushing value at the 25th, and we wrote the asterisk ourselves: "the asterisk is Jamal Roberts." He was the whole game. Thirty-four carries for 222, 6.5 a carry, a 54-yard touchdown with 2:49 left and the 2-yard one that ended the third quarter, runs of 19, 17, 15, 14 and 14 and a 23-yarder wiped out by a holding flag; Missouri as a team ran 44 times for 252, 5.7 a carry, and the 12-play, 76-yard touchdown drive that took the last 6:51 of the third quarter was twelve runs and no completion, with a pass-interference flag on a nullified thirteenth snap. The Aggie front had held Arkansas's backs to 18 carries and we said the test was four quarters; Missouri gave it four quarters, and the fourth was the worst. The chip has now graded WRONG against Kentucky and LSU, PARTLY against Arkansas and WRONG here.
Our worst miss was giving A&M a small edge against Missouri's running game. That was WRONG. We leaned A&M because its run defense had good season numbers and Missouri's running game had poor ones, and we wrote the warning ourselves: the exception was Jamal Roberts. He was the whole game: 34 carries for 222 yards, 6.5 a carry, a 54-yard touchdown late and a 2-yard one at the end of the third quarter, and a 12-play touchdown drive that used up the last seven minutes of the third quarter, every play of it a run. Missouri as a team ran for 252 yards. We said last week we would not trust this part of A&M's defense until it stopped a running game for a whole game; Missouri ran for all four quarters, and the fourth was the worst. This call has now been WRONG against Kentucky and LSU, PARTLY right against Arkansas, and WRONG again here.
The Tiger line against the Aggie front, Texas A&M slight: WRONG. The bar said A&M by 21 points of percentile on line yards, and we held the chip to slight because it had graded PARTLY four weeks running, "the direction right and the per-carry number wrong each time." This time the direction was wrong too. Missouri's line made 5.7 a carry; the Aggie front stopped six of 42 non-kneel carries at or behind the line and made four tackles for loss on runs, Jordan Shaw's 5-yarder on Roberts in the third quarter the biggest, and that is the whole stop list against eight runs of 10 or more. Nicholas Rodriguez's line afterward: "We got some dudes up front. They practice their butts off, and it showed up today."
We also gave A&M a small edge for its defensive front against Missouri's blockers, and that was WRONG. We had been half right on this matchup four weeks in a row, right about who would win it and wrong about how much; this time we were wrong about who. Missouri's runners averaged 5.7 yards a carry, A&M stopped only six of 42 runs at or behind the line, and Missouri had eight runs of 10 yards or more.
Tiger pass protection against the Aggie pass rush, Texas A&M slight: WRONG. No sacks and two hurries in the box on 28 dropbacks, Ray Coney's on a third-and-8 in the second quarter and Daymion Sanford's on a 25-yard completion in the third; a third hurry, Chance Collins's, came on a snap wiped out by a pass-interference flag. We held the chip to the third tell, and the tell came in at one pressure on the first 20 dropbacks, which is the fail state we wrote. Simmons did not need to throw much, 28 attempts against 44 runs, and when he did he was not touched; Missouri's quarterbacks have been sacked six times in six games.
We gave A&M a small edge for its pass rush, and that was WRONG. A&M did not tackle Simmons behind the line once and hurried him twice in 28 passing plays. We had said the pass rush had to show up on five of his first 20 passing plays to prove it was real; it showed up on one.
Simmons's passing game against the Aggie coverage, Missouri, full size: WRONG, in A&M's favor, and the coverage chip is now wrong four weeks running. We built this chip from the quarterback, as last week's lesson said to, and the quarterback was the best on the schedule: 9.3 an attempt, 13 touchdowns, none of his 136 throws intercepted. He was 14 of 28 for 147, 5.3 an attempt, his third throw was tipped by T.J. Searcy and caught by Sanford at the Missouri 27, and his four deep throws all fell incomplete, one into the end zone and one to the 3 from the A&M 33 in the third quarter. The one touchdown was Cayden Lee's 32-yarder on third-and-4 at the start of the second quarter; Lee caught 7 for 94, Roberts 3 for 8 out of the backfield, and no other receiver caught more than one. The first tell measured it and came in at 5.0 an attempt over the first 15 throws, under the six that said the coverage was real. The chip has graded WRONG against Kentucky and LSU, too kind to A&M, and against Arkansas and Missouri, too harsh; last week's fix, build it from the opponent, did not fix it, because the opponent's quarterback had his worst day. Simmons, afterward: "It wasn't my best game, in my perspective."
We gave Missouri a full edge for its passing game against A&M's pass defense, and that was WRONG, in A&M's favor; it is the fourth week in a row we have been WRONG about A&M's pass defense. Simmons came in averaging 9.3 yards a throw with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. He completed 14 of 28 for 147 yards, 5.3 a throw, his third pass was tipped and intercepted by A&M linebacker Daymion Sanford, and all four of his long throws fell incomplete, one of them into the end zone and one to the 3-yard line. His one touchdown pass was a 32-yarder to Cayden Lee early in the second quarter. Last week we changed how we build this call, to start from the other team's quarterback instead of from A&M's last game, and it did not help, because the other team's quarterback had his worst day of the year.
The Aggie deep game against Tiger coverage, Even: WRONG, in Missouri's favor. Reed threw deep six times and completed one, TK Norman's 32-yarder with 2:02 left and the score 27–6; the other five were two incompletions to Isaiah Horton in the first half, one to Ashton Bethel-Roman to open the fourth quarter, one to Mario Craver that Chris Graves Jr. broke up, and the fourth-and-10 to Bethel-Roman at 3:03 that ended the drive. Two bars at the bottom of the country, we said, and neither has shown it can do the thing this pairing is about; Missouri's coverage showed it could stop it, which is the pairing.
We called A&M's long passing against Missouri's pass defense a toss-up, and that was WRONG: Missouri won it. Reed threw six long passes and completed one, a 32-yarder to TK Norman with two minutes left and the game long over. Missouri's defenders broke up or outran the other five.
Edwards, Owens and the backs against the Tiger run defense, Missouri slight: PARTLY, because slight was the wrong size. The backs ran 16 times for 47 yards, 2.9 a carry, KJ Edwards 6 for 20 with a long of 6, Jamarion Morrow 6 for 14, Rueben Owens II 4 for 13 and the day's longest Aggie run, 9, with 2:02 left; Carsyn Baker has no carry in the box. We held the chip to slight because Mississippi State had run for 122 on this front and Missouri's own safety said so; the second tell was supposed to tell us which Missouri showed up, and it did, at 38 yards on the first 15 carries. Direction right, size wrong.
We gave Missouri a small edge against A&M's running backs, and it was PARTLY right: the edge was Missouri's, and it was not small. A&M's backs ran 16 times for 47 yards, under 3 a carry, and the longest run by any Aggie all day was 9 yards. We kept the edge small because another team had run on Missouri two weeks earlier; nobody ran on Missouri on Saturday.
Lee, Olugbode and the deep game against the Aggie big-play problem, Missouri: PARTLY. Missouri had three completions of 20 or more, all to Lee: the 32-yard touchdown, a 25-yarder on the first drive of the second half that was 11 yards in the air and 14 after the catch, and a 20-yarder in the two-minute drill. The deep ball, which is the thing this chip was about, went 0 for 4, and Donovan Olugbode, 27 catches and six touchdowns coming in, had none on one target. The big-play problem that allowed eight long completions in the two losses allowed none that was thrown long; the 32-yard score was a third-and-4 throw the play-by-play does not tag for depth.
We gave Missouri the edge on long passes against A&M's defense, and it was PARTLY right. Missouri had three catches of 20 yards or more, all by Cayden Lee, including the touchdown, but its four true long throws all fell incomplete, and Donovan Olugbode, who had six touchdown catches coming in, did not catch a pass.
Two tells were PARTLY. Simmons's yards per attempt over his first 15 throws came in at 5.0, under the six that said "the Arkansas night was the coverage and not the opponent, and the call is light on A&M." The first half of that read was right and the second half could not have been more wrong, because the tell assumed an Aggie offense that would score if the coverage held. Sixty yards on the Aggies' first 15 carries came in at 38, three yards over the 35 that said "the Aggies are one-dimensional again, in the wrong direction, and the fourth quarter belongs to Simmons": the number sat between the bars, the one-dimensional read was right, and the fourth quarter belonged to Roberts, not Simmons, who completed one pass in it.
Two of our three early signs were PARTLY right. The first said that if Simmons averaged under six yards a throw over his first 15 passes, A&M's pass defense was for real and our score was too low on A&M; he averaged 5.0, the pass defense was for real, and our score was far too high on A&M, because the sign assumed A&M's offense would score if its defense held. The second said that under 35 yards on A&M's first 15 runs meant A&M could not run and the late going would belong to Simmons; A&M got 38, could not run, and the late going belonged to Roberts instead.
The first quarter was two interceptions on third down inside the 30 and a 53-yard field goal. Simmons's third throw of the day, on third-and-3 from his own 27, was tipped by Searcy and caught by Sanford, who returned it 13 yards to the 14, the first interception of Simmons's season after 139 attempts without one (AP) and A&M's second opening-drive interception in two weeks. Daeden Hopkins jumped offside, Edwards ran for 4, Lamont Rogers false-started, Morrow ran for 4, and on third-and-2 from the 6 Reed's throw into the end zone was broken up by Trajen Greco and caught by Elijah Dotson for a touchback. Brunno Reus's 26-yard punt out of bounds gave the Aggies the Missouri 40; a holding flag on Trovon Baugh wiped out an Edwards run, Bethel-Roman caught one for 11, and David Olano hit from 53 for 3–0 at 4:46. Missouri's answer began at 2:07 of the first quarter and ended at 12:58 of the second: ten plays and 77 yards, Brett Norfleet for 14, Lee for 8 on third-and-4 and 6 on third-and-5, and Lee from 32 on third-and-4 for 7–3, the only touchdown pass of the day. The Aggie offense's next three possessions were a three-and-out after a holding flag on Micah Riley, Greco's interception on first down at the A&M 36, which Blake Craig turned into a 50-yard field goal and 10–3 at 8:40, and another three-and-out with two hurried incompletions. Donta Simpson's 8-yard sack on third-and-6 ended the last one, and Missouri's two-minute drive from its own 22, Kenric Lanier II for 16, Lee for 20, a 23-yard Roberts run to the 7 erased by holding on Curtis Peagler, a 13-yard Simmons scramble, reached the 21 before Brandon Davis-Swain blocked Craig's 39-yard try as the half ended. At the half the Aggies had 71 yards, two first downs and five completions in 13 throws, with two interceptions and a sack. Missouri opened the third quarter with Lee for 25 and Roberts for 17, Noah Mikhail stopped Roberts for a loss and a throw into the end zone and one to the 3 fell incomplete, and Craig hit from 51 for 13–3; the Aggies' reply was a holding flag on Baugh and a 12-yard sack by Rodriguez and Hopkins on third-and-8, fourth-and-20, and a 58-yard punt. Shaw's 5-yard tackle for loss on Roberts forced a Missouri three-and-out; Kensley Louidor-Faustin's breakup of a third-down throw to Craver forced an Aggie one. Then the drive that decided it: 12 plays, 76 yards and the last 6:51 of the quarter, Roberts for 1, 10, 3 and 14, Xai'Shaun Edwards for minus 2 and 0, a pass-interference flag on Bravion Rogers on third-and-12, Roberts for 3 and 6, Simmons for 2 on third-and-1, Roberts for 19 to the 10, Simmons for 8 to the 2 with a fumble that Tawfiq Byard forced and Simmons recovered himself, and Roberts from the 2 as the clock hit zero, 20–3. A&M's offense had 3 yards in the quarter. Morrow's 45-yard kickoff return started the fourth, and a 12-play drive with Morrow converting fourth-and-1 at the Missouri 46 and Richie Anderson III converting third-and-1 reached the 8 before Rodriguez stopped Morrow for minus 2 on third-and-3; Olano from 27 at 9:51, 20–6. The Aggies got the ball back at their own 20 with 5:08 left, took a sack from Simpson and Langden Kitchen on first down, converted fourth-and-3 on a 13-yard throw to Bethel-Roman, reached the Missouri 43 on Horton's 17-yarder, and threw four incompletions, Dante McClellan, Graves and Bobby Washington Jr. each breaking one up. Two plays later Roberts ran 54 yards up the middle for 27–6 at 2:49. The last Aggie drive went 65 yards in eight plays, Norman for 32 and Morrow for 20, to the 11; Aaron Gregory's 11-yard touchdown catch was nullified because he had stepped out of bounds and come back, Rogers false-started, and Reed's fourth-and-15 throw to Horton was broken up by Jahlil Florence. Missouri became the fourth team to hold A&M without an offensive touchdown since the Aggies joined the SEC (Missouri Athletics), two weeks after LSU was the third.
The first quarter was two interceptions and a long field goal. Simmons's third pass of the day was tipped and intercepted by A&M linebacker Daymion Sanford, who returned it to the Missouri 14; it was the first interception Simmons had thrown all season. A&M got to the 6-yard line and on third down Reed threw into the end zone, where safety Trajen Greco knocked the ball up and safety Elijah Dotson caught it. A 26-yard Missouri punt gave A&M the ball at the Missouri 40, and David Olano kicked a 53-yard field goal for a 3 to 0 lead. Missouri then drove 77 yards in ten plays, converting three third downs, the last of them a 32-yard touchdown pass to Cayden Lee early in the second quarter, 7 to 3. A&M's next three possessions produced a punt, an interception by Greco that set up Blake Craig's 50-yard field goal, 10 to 3, and another punt; a sack on third down ended the one after that. Missouri drove to the A&M 21 in the last two minutes of the half, but A&M's Brandon Davis-Swain blocked the field goal as time ran out. At halftime A&M had 71 yards and two first downs. Missouri opened the second half with a drive to the A&M 33 and Craig's 51-yard field goal, 13 to 3; A&M's answer was a holding penalty, a 12-yard sack and a punt. Both teams then punted, and Missouri put together the drive that decided the game: 12 plays, 76 yards, nearly seven minutes of clock, almost all of it Jamal Roberts running, ending with his 2-yard touchdown as the third quarter ended, 20 to 3. A&M gained 3 yards in the third quarter. In the fourth, Jamarion Morrow returned the kickoff 45 yards, and A&M drove to the Missouri 8 before stalling; Olano's 27-yard field goal made it 20 to 6. A&M's next drive reached the Missouri 43 and ended on four straight incomplete passes, and two plays later Roberts ran 54 yards for the touchdown, 27 to 6, with 2:49 left. A&M's last drive reached the 11-yard line; a touchdown catch by Aaron Gregory was wiped out because he had stepped out of bounds before catching it, and the final pass was knocked away. A&M did not score a touchdown, for the second time in three games.
| Texas A&M | Missouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 216 | 399 |
| Passing / rushing | 187 / 29 | 147 / 252 |
| Yards an attempt (pass) | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Rushing, carries (a carry) | 23 (1.3; three sacks counted as runs) | 44 (5.7; two kneel-downs included) |
| Sacks made · hurries | 0 · 2 | 3 · 13 |
| First downs | 10 | 20 |
| Third downs · fourth downs | 5 of 18 · 1 of 3 | 6 of 16 · none tried |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 50 | 5 for 45 |
| Time of possession | 28:48 | 31:12 |
| The board's decisive gap | The ground, both ways: 44 carries for 252 one way, 23 for 29 the other, and the two chips we leaned A&M on were the two it lost worst | |
The install week's own questions, answered. Thursday's Red Zone edition had the Aggies scoring on 19 of 23 red-zone trips with 16 touchdowns; Saturday they had three trips, from the 14 after Sanford's interception, the 8 on the fourth-quarter field-goal drive and the 11 at the end, and came away with 3 points and no touchdown. Tuesday's Early Downs edition measured the run share on first and second down: 72% runs against Arkansas, and against Missouri the Aggies threw on about 71% of their early downs. Wednesday's Third Down edition: A&M 5 of 18, three of them by run, against a Missouri defense that allowed a third of its third downs; Missouri 6 of 16 against an Aggie defense that had allowed 26.4%. Blake Craig's blocked 39-yarder was his third blocked kick of the season, and Bethel-Roman's 8-yard return was the first punt return Brunno Reus had allowed. Elko said afterward that he gave up defensive play-calling "a few weeks ago" to be more of "the CEO" (KBTX's Brown). Maroon helmets, white jerseys and white pants, as the Walkthrough said; the DJ helmet sticker Missouri wore for its freshman lineman after his heart transplant (AP); a dry 11 AM kick with no weather note in any source we read.
The week's three install editions, graded against the game. Thursday's edition said A&M had scored on 19 of its 23 trips inside the 20-yard line this season; on Saturday it had three such trips and got 3 points and no touchdown. Tuesday's edition tracked how often A&M runs on first and second down: nearly three of every four plays against Arkansas, and against Missouri it threw on about seven of every ten. Wednesday's edition was about third down: A&M converted 5 of 18, Missouri 6 of 16. Missouri's kicker had his third kick of the season blocked, and A&M's 8-yard punt return was the first Missouri's punter had allowed all year. Elko said afterward that he handed off the defensive play-calling a few weeks ago to oversee the whole team. A&M wore maroon helmets and white jerseys, Missouri wore a helmet sticker for its lineman who had a heart transplant last week, and the weather was a non-factor.
Next week is The Citadel, and the card only. Texas A&M vs. The Citadel, Saturday, Oct 17, 12:00 PM CT on SEC Network+ at Kyle Field, per Texas A&M Athletics. The Citadel plays in the FCS, so by the owner's rule there is no scouting report and no recap edition for it: the two-minute read carries the line and the model's number for the record and flips to the score Sunday morning. From that week on, the Dispatch's normal week is three editions a team, the Monday scouting report with the install folded in, the Saturday pre-dawn read and the Sunday recap. The next full week is at Alabama, Oct 24, 2:30 PM CT on ABC, set Monday (KBTX). Two things carry to it: an offense that has now gone without a touchdown in both of its road games, and a board that has had the Aggie run defense right in none of four SEC weeks.
Next week is The Citadel, and only the short card. A&M plays The Citadel on Saturday, Oct 17, at noon Central on SEC Network+ at Kyle Field. The Citadel plays in college football's second division, so there will be no scouting report and no recap for that game: the two-minute card will carry the betting line and our computer's number for the record and will show the score on Sunday morning. Starting that week, our normal week is three editions a team: the Monday scouting report, the Saturday morning read and the Sunday recap. The next full week is at Alabama on Oct 24, at 2:30 PM Central on ABC. Two things carry over: an A&M offense that has not scored a touchdown in either of its road games, and a set of matchup calls that has not had A&M's run defense right in four conference games.
| Line score | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Missouri | 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 27 |
Two picks and the 9. Sanford's interception on Simmons's third throw, with 9:53 left, is the kind of break the call needed and the chip on Coaching & Luck leaned against: first-and-10 at the Missouri 14, then first-and-5 at the 9 after Hopkins's offside. The Aggies ran Edwards for 4 and Morrow for 4 around a false start, and on third-and-2 from the 6 Reed's end-zone throw was tipped by Greco to Dotson. That was the drive the game turned on, because the Aggie offense would not see the Missouri 30 again until the fourth quarter. Reus's shanked 26-yard punt gave A&M the 40 and the Aggies could not make a first down from it; Olano's 53-yarder was the result. The run-game tell was already reading badly: nine Aggie carries in the quarter for 20 yards, Reed's included, and the pass rush had no pressure on Simmons's first eight dropbacks. Missouri's 77-yard drive, three third downs converted, started at 2:07. The number: 9, the yard line A&M had first-and-5 from and did not score.
Two interceptions, and the one that mattered most was A&M's. Sanford's interception gave A&M the ball at the Missouri 14, and an offside penalty moved it to the 9 with a fresh set of downs; two runs gained 8, and on third down from the 6 Reed's pass into the end zone was tipped and intercepted. That was the drive the game turned on, because A&M's offense would not get back inside the Missouri 30 until the fourth quarter. A short Missouri punt gave A&M the ball at the Missouri 40, A&M could not make a first down, and Olano kicked a 53-yard field goal. A&M ran the ball nine times in the quarter for 20 yards, which was already a bad sign for the running game we expected. Missouri started its 77-yard touchdown drive with two minutes left in the quarter.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 15:00 | 6 | 23 | PUNT | 0–0 |
| Missouri | own 9 at 12:09 | 5 | 18 | INT | 0–0 |
| Texas A&M | Missouri 14 at 9:53 | 3 | 8 | INT | 0–0 |
| Missouri | own 20 at 8:14 | 3 | -6 | PUNT | 0–0 |
| Texas A&M | Missouri 40 at 6:46 | 4 | 5 | FG | 3–0 |
| Missouri | own 25 at 4:46 | 3 | 2 | PUNT | 0–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 31 at 4:01 | 3 | 9 | PUNT | 3–0 |
| Missouri | own 23 at 2:07 | 10 | 77 | TD | 7–3 |
Lee's 32-yard touchdown on third-and-4 at 12:58 finished the drive from the first quarter, and the Aggie offense then had four possessions and 16 yards. A holding flag on Riley made the first one first-and-20, and Simpson hurried the third-down throw; Greco intercepted the second on its first snap, a ball KBTX's Travis L. Brown saw come off Bethel-Roman's hands, and Craig's 50-yarder at 8:40 made it 10–3; the third was two hurried incompletions, McClellan and Simpson, and a 72-yard punt; the fourth got a first down on Reed's 2-yard keeper on third-and-1, A&M's second first down of the game, and ended with Simpson's 8-yard sack on third-and-6. Two tells closed in this quarter: Simmons's 15th throw, a deep incompletion to Caleb Goodie Sr. at 10:23, left him at 5.0 an attempt, and his 20th dropback, the 16-yarder to Lanier at 0:31, had one pressure in the 20. The two-minute drive that followed, 57 yards in nine plays with Roberts's 23-yard run to the 7 taken away by holding on Peagler, ended on Davis-Swain's block of a 39-yard field goal, the one break of the half that went A&M's way. The number: 2, the Aggie first downs at the half.
Lee's 32-yard touchdown catch came 13 seconds into the quarter, and A&M's offense then had four possessions and gained 16 yards. The first was wrecked by a holding penalty, the second ended on the first play with an interception, which Craig turned into a 50-yard field goal and a 10 to 3 lead, the third was two hurried incomplete passes and a punt, and the fourth ended with Reed tackled 8 yards behind the line on third down. Two of our early signs were settled in this quarter, both against us: Simmons averaged 5.0 yards a throw over his first 15 passes, and A&M hurried or tackled him on one of his first 20 passing plays. Missouri drove to the A&M 21 in the last two minutes, but A&M's Brandon Davis-Swain blocked the 39-yard field goal as the half ended, the one break of the half that went A&M's way. At halftime A&M had two first downs.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 12:58 | 3 | -4 | PUNT | 3–7 |
| Missouri | own 31 at 10:55 | 3 | 6 | PUNT | 7–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 10:02 | 1 | 0 | INT | 3–7 |
| Missouri | Texas A&M 34 at 9:53 | 4 | 2 | FG | 10–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 8:40 | 3 | 3 | PUNT | 3–10 |
| Missouri | own 20 at 7:28 | 6 | 28 | PUNT | 10–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 17 at 4:53 | 6 | 7 | PUNT | 3–10 |
| Missouri | own 22 at 1:42 | 9 | 57 | MISSED FG | 10–3 |
Three yards for the Aggie offense and the 12-play drive that decided it. Missouri's first possession went Lee for 25, with Sanford's hurry on the throw, and Roberts for 17 to the 32, where Mikhail stopped Roberts for a loss and two end-zone throws missed; Craig from 51, 13–3. The Aggies' answer: Craver for 6, a Baugh holding flag, Edwards for 6, and Rodriguez and Hopkins sharing a 12-yard sack on third-and-8, fourth-and-20 from the 15. The second tell closed on Edwards's 6-yard run at 11:33, the 15th Aggie carry, 38 yards. Shaw's tackle for loss and Louidor-Faustin's breakup traded three-and-outs, and then Missouri took the ball at its own 24 with 6:44 left and did not give it back until the quarter was over: 12 plays, 76 yards, every one of them a run, with a pass-interference flag on Rogers on a nullified throw in the middle of it, Roberts for 19 to the 10, Simmons for 8 to the 2 with Byard forcing a fumble he recovered himself, and Roberts from the 2 at 0:00. That drive is the run-defense chip, graded in one possession. The number: 3, A&M's yards in the quarter.
A&M's offense gained 3 yards in the quarter, and Missouri put the game away. Missouri's first drive reached the A&M 33 and Craig kicked a 51-yard field goal, 13 to 3. A&M's answer was a holding penalty and a 12-yard sack on third down. Our second early sign closed here: A&M had 38 yards on its first 15 running plays, which said the running game was not going to work. After an exchange of punts, Missouri took the ball at its own 24 with 6:44 left in the quarter and kept it until the quarter was over, 12 plays, 76 yards, every play a run, and Roberts scored from the 2 as the clock ran out, 20 to 3. That one drive is why our call on A&M's run defense was WRONG.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | own 25 at 15:00 | 7 | 42 | FG | 13–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 25 at 12:30 | 3 | -10 | PUNT | 3–13 |
| Missouri | own 27 at 9:55 | 3 | -2 | PUNT | 13–3 |
| Texas A&M | own 29 at 8:23 | 3 | 3 | PUNT | 3–13 |
| Missouri | own 24 at 6:44 | 12 | 76 | TD | 20–3 |
Morrow's 45-yard kickoff return opened it, and the Aggies' best drive followed: 12 plays and 45 yards, Morrow on fourth-and-1 at the 46 for 3, Anderson on third-and-1 for 9, a Missouri holding flag on Isaac Jensen, and then Rodriguez's stop of Morrow for minus 2 on third-and-3 at the 8, so Olano from 27 at 9:51, 20–6. Reus's 56-yard punt pinned the Aggies at their own 20 with 5:08 left, and the drive that followed was the offense in one possession: a sack on first down, Houston Thomas for 11 and 2, Bethel-Roman for 13 on fourth-and-3, Horton for 17 to the Missouri 43, then four straight incompletions, three of them broken up. Roberts ran 3 and then 54, up the middle and gone, 27–6 at 2:49, his second 200-yard game in a row. The last Aggie drive got to the 11 on Norman's 32 and Morrow's 20, and Gregory's touchdown catch on third-and-10 was taken back for illegal touching. The desperation yards count: 133 of Reed's 187 came in this quarter by Missouri Athletics' count, which is why the box score reads better than the game. The number: 54.
Morrow's 45-yard kickoff return started A&M's best drive, which reached the Missouri 8 before a 2-yard loss on third down; Olano's 27-yard field goal made it 20 to 6. A 56-yard punt pinned A&M at its own 20 with five minutes left, and that drive was A&M's offense in miniature: a sack on the first play, two first downs on short throws, a 17-yard catch to the Missouri 43, then four straight incomplete passes. Two plays later Roberts ran 54 yards up the middle for the touchdown, 27 to 6, with 2:49 left; it was his second 200-yard game in a row. A&M's final drive reached the 11-yard line, where a touchdown catch was wiped out by a penalty. Most of Reed's passing yards came in this quarter, with the game already decided, which is why his final numbers look better than the game did.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | own 45 at 15:00 | 12 | 45 | FG | 6–20 |
| Missouri | own 25 at 9:51 | 6 | 19 | PUNT | 20–6 |
| Texas A&M | own 20 at 5:08 | 9 | 37 | DOWNS | 6–20 |
| Missouri | own 43 at 2:58 | 2 | 57 | TD | 27–6 |
| Texas A&M | own 19 at 2:49 | 8 | 65 | DOWNS | 6–27 |
| Missouri | own 16 at 0:39 | 2 | -2 | END OF GAME | 27–6 |
Drives and the line score from the committed postgame snapshot (drives.json, games.json); the prose is ours and is graded with everything else. Three snapshot glitches are corrected by hand from the play-by-play: the Aggie field-goal drive that opened the fourth quarter is listed under the third (its first snap followed the kickoff at 15:00 of the fourth), the running score on four second-quarter drives came through as negative numbers, and the score after Missouri's first fourth-quarter possession, a punt, came through as 27–6 (it was 20–6).
Fifteen throws for 75 yards, 5.0 an attempt, under the six; the 15th was the deep incompletion to Goodie at 10:23 of the second quarter, with Missouri up 7–3. The interception on the third throw, the two deep misses and a minus-2 completion to Lee are the shape of it; the one play that moved the number was Lee's 32-yard touchdown, the 14th throw. The read that the number stood for was half right and half wrong: the Arkansas night was the coverage, because Simmons finished at 5.3 an attempt against 9.3 for the season and the coverage won the chip; but "the call is light on A&M" assumed an Aggie offense that could do something with a held opponent, and the Aggies scored six. The tell measured the coverage and said nothing about the call, which is the lesson for the next one: a tell on the opponent's quarterback grades the chip it sits on, not the score. PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We said that if Simmons averaged under six yards a throw over his first 15 passes, A&M's pass defense was for real and our score was too low on A&M. He averaged 5.0, with an interception on his third throw and two long misses, so the pass defense was for real, and he finished the day at 5.3 a throw against his season's 9.3. But our score was not too low on A&M; it was seventeen points too high, because the sign assumed A&M's offense would score if its defense held, and it scored six. Half right, half wrong.
Thirty-eight yards on the first 15, 2.5 a carry, three yards over the fail line and 22 under the bar; the 15th was Edwards's 6-yard run at 11:33 of the third quarter, the longest of the 15. Reed's four keepers went 1, 0, 5 and 2; no carry in the 15 went for more than 6, and the game's longest Aggie run was Owens's 9 with 2:02 left. The number sat between the two readings we wrote, so the tell as written did not fire, and the game fired it anyway: the Aggies were one-dimensional in the wrong direction, 39 throws against 20 carries, and the fourth quarter belonged to Roberts, 84 yards on six carries including the 54, not to Simmons, who completed one pass in it for 5 yards. Direction right, the named mechanism wrong, and the bars set too low: under 35 was the right read at 38. PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We said that under 35 yards on A&M's first 15 running plays would mean A&M could not run and the late going would belong to Simmons. A&M got 38, three over the line we drew, and could not run anyway: no run longer than 6 among the 15, and none longer than 9 all day. The late going belonged to Missouri's running back, not its quarterback, who completed one pass in the fourth quarter. We read the running game right and named the wrong Missouri player to finish it.
One of the first 20, counting attempts and sacks the way the box does: Coney's hurry on third-and-8 at 8:46 of the second quarter, the 17th dropback, an incompletion to Olugbode. The 20th dropback was the 16-yard completion to Lanier at 0:31 of the half. The rest of the day added one more, Sanford's hurry on Lee's 25-yarder in the third, and no sack: two pressures on 28 dropbacks, with a third on a snap erased by a pass-interference flag. One or none, we wrote, says the rush is the problem again, and it was; the slight A&M edge on the Tiger protection came off, as the tell said it would. The read was right, and the rush graded WRONG. RIGHT.
RIGHT. We said that if A&M hurried or tackled Simmons on five of his first 20 passing plays, its pass rush was back, and that one or none meant the pass rush was the problem again. It got one, a hurried throw in the second quarter, and finished the day with two hurries and no sacks in 28 passing plays. The sign read the pass rush correctly, and the matchup it was attached to was WRONG.
All twelve pregame pairings, the edge we printed Monday, and what the game said. Chips are quoted verbatim from the scouting report.
| Pairing | Our call | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reed's Passing Game vs. the Tiger Secondary | Edge: Missouri | 19 of 39 for 187 (4.8), 0 TD, 2 INT (Dotson in the end zone, Greco at the A&M 36), 3 sacks, 13 hurries; 7 of 16 for 54 through three quarters | Right |
| The Aggie Line vs. the Tiger Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Missouri | 29 on 23 in the box (1.3), 55 on the 20 non-sack carries (2.8); longest run 9; 3 of 20 carries stopped at or behind the line, 1 tackle for loss on a run; 3 sacks allowed, one against a three-man rush (KBTX) | Right |
| Edwards, Owens and the Backs vs. the Tiger Run Defense | Edge: Missouri, slight | Edwards 6-20 (long 6), Morrow 6-14 (5), Owens 4-13 (9); the backs 16 for 47 (2.9), no touchdown; Baker no carry; 38 on the first 15 Aggie carries | Partly |
| Aggie Pass Protection vs. the Tiger Pass Rush | Edge: Missouri | 3 sacks (Simpson 1.5, Rodriguez 0.5, Hopkins 0.5, Kitchen 0.5) and 13 hurries on 42 dropbacks; Reed hurried on 6 of his 13 first-half throws | Right |
| Aggie Deep Game vs. Tiger Coverage | Edge: Even | Deep throws 1 of 6: Norman's 32 at 2:02 of the fourth, down 27–6; incompletions to Horton (2), Bethel-Roman (2) and Craver (Graves breakup) | Wrong |
| Simmons's Passing Game vs. Aggie Coverage | Edge: Missouri | 14 of 28 for 147 (5.3), 1 TD, 1 INT (Sanford, on the third throw, his first in 139 attempts); 5.0 over the first 15; deep throws 0 of 4; Lee 7-94-1, Roberts 3-8, no other receiver more than one catch | Wrong |
| Roberts and the Tiger Backs vs. the Aggie Run Defense | Edge: Texas A&M, slight | Roberts 34-222-2 (long 54), his second straight 200-yard game; Simmons 4-24; Xai'Shaun Edwards 3-5; Missouri 252 on 44 (5.7) with two kneel-downs; the 12-play, 76-yard drive that closed the third quarter was twelve runs and no completion | Wrong |
| The Tiger Line vs. the Aggie Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Texas A&M, slight | 5.7 a carry; 6 of 42 non-kneel carries stopped at or behind the line (14%); 4 tackles for loss on runs (Davis-Swain, Mikhail, Shaw for 5, Coney) against runs of 54, 19, 17, 15, 14, 14, 13 and 10, plus 23 and 14 erased by Missouri flags | Wrong |
| Tiger Pass Protection vs. the Aggie Pass Rush | Edge: Texas A&M, slight | 0 sacks, 2 hurries (Coney Q2, Sanford Q3) on 28 dropbacks; a third hurry (Collins) on a snap erased by pass interference; one pressure on the first 20 dropbacks | Wrong |
| Lee, Olugbode and the Deep Game vs. the Aggie Big-Play Problem | Edge: Missouri | Three completions of 20 or more, all Lee: 32 (TD), 25 (11 in the air), 20; deep throws 0 of 4, one into the end zone and one to the 3 from the 33; Olugbode 0 catches on 1 target | Partly |
| Special Teams & Field Position | Edge: Texas A&M, slight | Olano 2 of 2 (53, 27), 9 of 9 on the season; Craig 2 of 3 (50, 51; 39 blocked by Davis-Swain) and 3 of 3 on extra points; White 7 punts at 52.7, long 72; Reus 6 at 41.8 with a 26-yarder; Morrow's 45-yard kickoff return; Aggie drives started at their own 33 on average, Missouri's at its 27 | Right |
| Coaching & Luck | Edge: Missouri, slight | Turnovers 2-1 Missouri, the two Aggie interceptions worth at least 3 points at the 6 and 3 for Missouri at the 34; the blocked field goal and the nullified 23-yard run were A&M's breaks; fourth downs A&M 1 of 3, Missouri none tried; 44 runs to 28 throws for Drinkwitz, 23 runs to 39 throws for Elko; Drinkwitz 1-3 against A&M | Right |
Reading the grades honestly: five of twelve right, two partly, five wrong, and the pattern is a board turned inside out. The five chips that leaned Missouri on offense and protection held, four of them outright; Missouri's run-stopping front and its pass rush did to the Aggie offense exactly what the bars said. The three chips that leaned Texas A&M on defense, the run defense, the front against the Tiger line and the pass rush, were all WRONG, and all three by the same mechanism: Roberts and a line that moved the Aggie front for four quarters. The one full Missouri edge on the Tiger offense, Simmons against the coverage, was WRONG the other way, and the Even on the Aggie deep game was Missouri's. The standing lessons: the coverage chip has now graded WRONG in all four SEC weeks, twice too kind to A&M and twice too harsh, and building it from the opponent's quarterback did not save it, so it needs a wider hedge than one week's quarterback; the run-defense chip has been right against nobody but Arizona State; and Coaching & Luck, which took a side for the first time, was RIGHT, so the default stays off Even.
The honest summary: we got 5 of our 12 matchup calls right, 2 half right and 5 WRONG, and the pattern is that we had the board backward. Everything we gave Missouri on offense and blocking held up. The three calls we gave A&M on defense, against Missouri's running back, against Missouri's blockers, and for A&M's pass rush, were all WRONG, and all for the same reason: Jamal Roberts and a Missouri line that pushed A&M's defensive front around for four quarters. Our one strong Missouri call on offense, Simmons against A&M's pass defense, was WRONG the other way, and our toss-up on A&M's long passing was Missouri's. The lessons: we have been WRONG about A&M's pass defense four weeks in a row, in both directions, so that call needs more caution than one quarterback's numbers; our call on A&M's run defense has been right only against Arizona State; and our coaching-and-luck call, which picked a side for the first time, was RIGHT.
Our model said Missouri by 7.5 (29.6–22.1); the market said Missouri by 2.5 on Monday and 3.5 by Friday. Actual: Missouri by 21. Model error 13.5, market error 18.5 against the Monday number predictions.csv holds and 17.5 against the close. Both had the winner; the model takes the week by five points, the thing we print as a caution beating the thing we follow. With both of the Dispatch's Week 6 games graded, the season line is market 6, model 5 on margin, straight up market 9-2 and model 8-3, and the one game they picked different winners is still the market's. The model's SP+ inputs were stale, as the Game Plan said, published before the Week 5 games, with neither the 34–7 nor the 45–17 in them; the stale ratings had Missouri five points better than the fresh line did, and were still 13.5 short. The published call stays with the market, and the week says why that is a policy and not a prophecy.
Our computer said Missouri by 7.5, the betting line said Missouri by 2.5 and then 3.5, and Missouri won by 21. Both picked the right winner, and both guessed far too small; the computer was closer by five points, so it wins this week. Over the season, with both of our teams' games graded this week, the betting line has been closer in six games and our computer in five, and the betting line has picked the right winner nine times out of eleven to the computer's eight. That is why our published score keeps following the betting line, even in a week the computer did better.
The base rate we printed Monday: favorites of 1.5 to 3.5 points in the first five weeks were 147-125 straight up since 2023, and the median margin across all 272 of those games, wins and losses together, was 2. Saturday was one more favorite's win, by 21, and the total came in 33 against our 49 and the books' 48.5. Raw rows: predictions.csv.
Read after the fact, because the Saturday card did not run: the SEC's Friday evening report, which we could not find reproduced as its own item by any outlet we read (the Columbia Daily Tribune's Saturday story counts the reports "between Wednesday and Friday" as one set of 16 Missouri names, and Texas A&M On SI's Saturday morning piece carries Thursday's list as the latest, so nothing we can see changed Friday on either side), and the 90-minute report, which the Tribune published at 9:36 AM Saturday: Missouri removed all eleven of its probable and questionable players, "meaning all players who were not previously ruled out are available to play," leaving the five outs, Ahmad Hardy, Malae Fonoti, JaDon Blair, Gavin Hoffman and Josh Atkins; Texas A&M listed three, Mario Craver a game-time decision, Blake Ivy and Terry Bussey out. Against the box: Craver played 30 snaps (PFF via KBTX), caught one pass for 6 yards on six targets, had a one-handed try on third-and-7 in the second quarter that KBTX's Brown called "a good enough pass from Reed" and not "a good enough effort from Craver," and was "not moving very quickly" in the pregame walk; Elko afterward: "Mario's battling things. He was able to give us some stuff today and he's not nearly full go." Ivy, out with no reason given all week, was hurt in practice and is out for the season (Brown, KBTX). Jamarion Morrow and Tamarion Watkins, never listed: Morrow ran 6 times for 14, caught one for 20 and returned the second-half kickoff 45 yards; Watkins has no stat. One in-game injury on the Aggie side: Anto Saka, a defensive end, went down with 13 seconds left in the half holding his left leg, needed help off and did not return (KBTX; the Austin American-Statesman), and no stat is in the box beside his one tackle. For Missouri, the seven questionables all played: Langden Kitchen two tackles, half a sack and two hurries; Robert Woodyard Jr. seven tackles; Santana Banner seven and a hurry; Kensley Louidor-Faustin three and a breakup; DaMarion Fowlkes two punt returns, a carry and a catch; Cayden Green started at left tackle and, by PowerMizzou's account, limped off after a first-quarter series with no later word; Darris Smith was on the field for one third down in the first quarter by PowerMizzou's account and has no stat in the box; how many other snaps he took, nothing we read says. The four probables: Bobby Washington Jr. a tackle and a breakup, Jahlil Florence a start, two tackles and the breakup that ended the game, Brett Norfleet a 14-yard catch, Jaden Jones no stat. The five outs have none. No player we listed out or doubtful has a meaningful line in the box (tools/availability.py --check), so there is nothing to contradict. Gigem Gazette's Saturday morning read of Missouri's 16-name report, before kickoff: "it's looking more and more like that was all for show."
We read the last two injury reports after the game instead of before it, because our Saturday card did not run. The Friday evening list, as far as any outlet we read reported it, changed nothing from Thursday. The final list, released 90 minutes before kickoff, took all eleven Missouri players who had been listed as probable or questionable off the report, which means they were cleared to play, and left the five who had already been ruled out. A&M listed three: receiver Mario Craver would be decided at game time, and lineman Blake Ivy and receiver Terry Bussey would not play. What happened: Craver played 30 snaps and caught one pass for 6 yards, could not hold a one-handed try on a third down, and was described by KBTX as moving slowly before the game; Elko said afterward that he is "not nearly full go." Ivy, it turns out, was hurt in practice during the week and is out for the season. Running back Jamarion Morrow, who was never listed, played and returned a kickoff 45 yards. A&M defensive end Anto Saka hurt his left leg just before halftime and did not return. All seven of Missouri's questionable players played, including the two starting pass rushers, the linebacker who wears the helmet radio and both starting safeties; left tackle Cayden Green started and limped off at one point in the first quarter, and we found no later word on him. Nobody who was listed as out showed up in the statistics, so nothing on the injury lists turned out to be wrong.
The film behind the grades. Every link below was opened before publish; anything we could not open was dropped rather than guessed at.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Missouri Tigers | Game Highlights | 2026 SEC Football (SEC, YouTube). Sanford's interception, Dotson's in the end zone, Lee's 32-yard score, the blocked field goal, the 12-play drive, Roberts from 54. The condensed game and Roberts's 222 yards, every carry are on the same channel; ESPN College Football's highlights and Mizzou Athletics' own reel cover the same ground.
Football Drops 27-6 Decision to No. 14 Missouri (Texas A&M Athletics), with Elko's, Reed's and Shaw's postgame words and the game notes. The other side: No. 14 Football Smothers Texas A&M 27-6 (Missouri Athletics), with Drinkwitz's.
Jamal Roberts runs for 222 yards and 2 TDs to lead No. 14 Missouri past Texas A&M 27-6 (AP via KY3). Simmons's 139-attempt streak, Elko's first October loss in nine, the DJ Jones helmet sticker. The AP has Reed at 189 yards and Roberts's third-quarter score from the 1; the box and both schools have 187 and 2.
Elko on the quarterback, the fan base and "Billy's cesspool" (Dallas Sports Journal, Sunday). Drinkwitz, Simmons and Roberts after the win (ABC17, Sunday). The KBTX grades with PFF's snap counts (Monday).
How the game is landing, as of Tuesday midday. These are conversations, not our claims; our claims are graded above. The pregame chatter note said nothing in the Aggie or Tiger spaces moved a number on the page, and it did not: the Aggie spaces were on "Sonic and Knuckles" and the kicker, and the backs ran 16 times for 47 while the kicker made both of his.