The call was PARTLY right: Texas 23, Missouri 20 against Texas 34, Missouri 20, the winner right and Missouri's 20 exactly, Texas 11 light and the margin 14 against 3. For three quarters it was the game we wrote: 10–10 at the half, 20–20 after three, Missouri's run game held to 3.5 a carry and its third downs to 3 of 16, a Texas offense that kicked two field goals and lost two fumbles. The fourth quarter was 14–0, and the 11 points of Texas the call did not see came from the places the board gave to Missouri. Manning, the slight Missouri chip, finished 28 of 38 for 297 and three touchdowns without an interception; the Texas backs, a full Missouri chip, ran 22 times for 101; and the special teams, Missouri slight, gave Texas a blocked punt and Missouri two missed field goals. Warren Roberson's strip of Cayden Lee and the 44-yard return by Graceson Littleton, a player we listed doubtful on our own pregame read (a contradiction named under Availability), set up the last touchdown.
Our score prediction was PARTLY right. We wrote down Texas 23, Missouri 20; it ended Texas 34, Missouri 20. We had the winner and Missouri's score exactly right, but Texas scored 11 more than we said. Through three quarters the game looked like our prediction, tied at 10 at halftime and at 20 after three. Then Texas scored the last two touchdowns. Three things we got wrong all went Texas's way: Arch Manning threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns against a pass defense we said had a small edge; Texas's running backs ran well against a run defense we said had a clear edge; and the kicking game, which we gave to Missouri, gave Texas a blocked punt while Missouri missed two field goals.
16 falsifiable claims graded: the score call, three tells, twelve matchup-board edges. The situation reads on the scouting report restated those twelve chips by id and added no claim of their own, so their grades are the chips' grades. Six storylines and the chatter check graded on whether they affected the game or the read. Full grades live in the season ledger (data/2026/season_ledger.csv), with each pregame claim quoted verbatim.
Manning's passing game against the Tiger secondary, Missouri slight: WRONG, in Texas's favor, and the miss that made the margin. We leaned on a Missouri pass defense at the 85th percentile in success allowed with DB havoc at the 93rd and seven interceptions, against a Texas passing game at the 52nd. Manning was 28 of 38 for 297, 7.8 an attempt, with touchdowns to Derrek Cooper for 24, Jermaine Bishop Jr. for 25 on third-and-10 and Raleek Brown for 23, and no interception; Emmett Mosley V caught 5 for 85, Bishop Jr. 4 for 60, Ryan Wingo 6 for 53. The secondary had its moments, Sione Laulea's two breakups and a pass-interference flag among them, and it was beaten anyway.
We gave Missouri's pass defense a small edge over Arch Manning, and that was WRONG. Manning completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns and threw no interceptions, against one of the best pass defenses Texas has played.
Brown, Terry and the backs against the Tiger run defense, Missouri full: WRONG, in Texas's favor. The bar leaned Missouri by 67 points, on a Tiger run defense allowing 2.96 a carry. The Texas backs ran 22 times for 101, 4.6 a carry: Brown 17 for 85 with a long of 13 and the 8-yard touchdown on third-and-8, Michael Terry III 3 for 14, Cooper 2 for 2. On the drive that broke the 20–20 tie Brown ran for 12 and 6 and caught the 23-yard touchdown.
We gave Missouri a clear edge over Texas's running backs, and that was WRONG. Texas's backs averaged 4.6 yards a carry against a defense that had allowed under 3. Raleek Brown ran for 85 yards and a touchdown and caught another.
Special teams and field position, Missouri slight: WRONG, in Texas's favor on the scoreboard. We gave Missouri the returners, DaMarion Fowlkes's punt-return touchdown among them, and a field-position bar at the 95th percentile. Missouri had the punting, Brunno Reus 5 for 49.6 with three inside the 20, and one break of its own, Brian Huff's strip of Ryan Niblett on the kickoff after its 48-yard field goal, recovered at the Texas 30; Missouri got nothing from it, Craig missing from 46. Texas got the rest: Jonathan Cunningham blocked Reus's punt at the Missouri 39 and Gianni Spetic kicked the field goal that tied it 10–10; Spetic was 2 of 2 and Craig 2 of 4, the misses from 38 and 46; Fowlkes had one punt return, a muff he fell on. The case for a softer grade is the field-position half, which was Missouri's; the points were Texas's.
We gave Missouri a small edge in the kicking game, and that was WRONG. Missouri punted better and forced a fumble on a kickoff return, but it scored nothing off that, and its kicker missed two field goals. Texas blocked a punt and turned it into a field goal, and its kicker made both of his.
Four PARTLY. The call, covered above. The Texas line against the Tiger front, Missouri by the widest bar on the board: the front won its share, 7 of 26 Texas runs stopped at or behind the line and two runs for minus 1 at the 7 before Brown scored, but Texas ran for 4.1 a carry without the sacks and kneel-downs. Texas pass protection against the Tiger rush, Missouri: three sacks, two of them ending drives, and eight hurries in the box, Daeden Hopkins three, but only one sack in Manning's first 20 dropbacks, and Manning's 7.8 an attempt. The Tiger line against the Texas front, Texas: Roberts was held to 3.5 and stopped for minus 1 on third-and-1 at the 1, but Missouri made four of its other five short-yardage runs.
Four calls were PARTLY right. Our score prediction. Missouri's defensive front stuffed a lot of Texas runs, as we expected, but Texas still averaged about 4 yards a carry. Missouri sacked Manning three times, as we expected, but he still played well. And Texas held Missouri's star running back, Jamal Roberts, to 3.5 yards a carry, but Missouri's blockers won most of the short-yardage plays.
Texas's first drive ended on Darris Smith's sack on third-and-5. Missouri went 68 yards in seven plays with two Texas flags in it, a personal foul on top of Donovan Olugbode's 15-yard catch and pass interference on Warren Roberson, DaMarion Fowlkes running 16 to the 6; Rasheem Biles and Zina Umeozulu stopped Roberts for minus 1 on third-and-1 at the 1, and Austin Simmons threw to Brett Norfleet on fourth-and-2 for 7–0 at 8:40. Texas answered in seven plays and 65 yards, Brown for 13, 12 and 7, and Manning to Cooper for 24 with Daeden Hopkins hurrying him, 7–7. On the next Texas snap Mosley caught a 22-yarder and Jeremiah Beasley stripped him, Trajen Greco recovering and returning it to the Texas 47; Ian Geffrard's personal foul added 15, review took a Montgomery touchdown off the board from the 6, and Blake Craig kicked from 22, 10–7. Missouri's next drive went 77 yards from its 3 in 12 plays and ended on Craig's miss from 38. Two three-and-outs later Cunningham blocked Reus's punt, Wingo caught a 22-yarder to the 18, two Manning runs lost a yard, and Spetic made it 10–10 from 27 at 1:57. Spetic's second-half kickoff went out of bounds, Missouri drove from its 35 to the Texas 29 and Craig made a 48-yarder, 13–10; on the kickoff Brian Huff stripped Niblett and Cameron Keys recovered at the Texas 30, and the Texas defense gave up 3 yards and forced Craig's 46-yard miss. Texas tied it with ten plays, Mosley for 14 and 31, Terry III for 3 on third-and-3 to the 7, then Cooper for minus 3 and a 9-yard sack by Beasley and Nicholas Rodriguez, and Spetic from 34, 13–13 at 5:41. Two snaps later Naeshaun Montgomery caught a short throw and went 72 yards, 20–13. Texas answered with nine plays and 75 yards: Brown for 12 on a catch, a 15-yard pass-interference flag on Laulea, and on third-and-10 at the Missouri 39 Huff hit Manning and the ball came loose, ruled a fumble on review, Mosley recovering at the 27 and carrying to the 25 for a first down. Two throws missed; on third-and-10 Manning found Bishop Jr. for 25 and the tie, 20–20 at 1:52. The fourth quarter opened with three Missouri incompletions and a punt, and a Texas drive to the Missouri 43 that lost a 34-yard catch to a holding flag on Brandon Baker and ended in a 25-yard Chiumento punt. Colton Vasek sacked Simmons for 10 and Missouri punted from its 10. Texas went 54 yards in six plays, Brown for 12 and 6, Wingo for 12 to the 20, and Brown's 23-yard catch down the right side, 27–20 at 5:03. Missouri's next drive went backward, Matt Zollers throwing its third-down pass, and Texas's went three plays and a muffed punt Fowlkes recovered at the Missouri 43. On third-and-5 from midfield, at 1:44, Roberson knocked the ball from Lee and Littleton returned it 44 yards to the 6; Brown lost a yard twice and scored from 8 on third-and-8, 34–20 at 1:25. Missouri reached its own 47 and Lance Jackson broke up the fourth-and-3 throw.
Missouri scored first: a 68-yard drive helped by two Texas penalties, finished by a short touchdown pass on fourth down, 7 to 0. Texas tied it with a 65-yard drive, Raleek Brown running three times for 32 yards and Arch Manning throwing 24 yards to Derrek Cooper for the touchdown. Then Emmett Mosley V lost a fumble and Missouri kicked a field goal, 10 to 7. Missouri missed a field goal in the second quarter, and Texas blocked a Missouri punt and kicked the tying field goal before halftime, 10 to 10. In the third quarter the teams traded field goals, and Missouri's Naeshaun Montgomery took a short pass 72 yards for a touchdown, 20 to 13. Texas tied it again: a play where Manning lost the ball as he was hit was ruled a fumble that Texas recovered for a first down, and two plays later Manning threw 25 yards to Jermaine Bishop Jr. for the touchdown, 20 to 20. In the fourth quarter Brown caught a 23-yard touchdown pass for a 27 to 20 lead, and with under two minutes left Warren Roberson knocked the ball loose from a Missouri receiver and Graceson Littleton returned it 44 yards; Brown ran it in from the 8 for 34 to 20. Texas scored the last 21 points.
| Texas | Missouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 373 | 336 |
| Passing / rushing | 297 / 76 | 252 / 84 |
| Yards an attempt (pass) | 7.8 | 5.7 (Simmons 5.9) |
| Rushing, carries (a carry) | 31 (2.5; three sacks and two kneel-downs counted as runs) | 24 (3.5; one sack counted as a run) |
| Sacks made · hurries | 1 · 4 | 3 · 8 |
| First downs | 21 | 17 |
| Third downs · fourth downs | 6 of 13 · none tried | 3 of 16 · 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 (fumbles) | 1 (fumble) |
| Penalties | 7 for 65 | 5 for 45 |
| Time of possession | 32:26 | 27:34 |
| The board's decisive gap | Third down and the kicking game: Missouri 3 of 16 against Texas 6 of 13, and the kicking game: Spetic 2 of 2, one of them off Cunningham's blocked punt, against Craig's two misses | |
Next is LSU, at Tiger Stadium. Texas plays at LSU on Saturday, Nov 14; kickoff TBD. Two things carry: a protection that allowed one sack in Manning's first 20 dropbacks against a front with 19 sacks coming in, and a Texas run defense that has now held two straight opponents under 3.6 a carry.
Texas plays at LSU next. The game is Saturday, Nov 14, in Baton Rouge, with the kickoff time not yet set. Two things carry over: Texas's blockers protected Manning far better than the week before, and its run defense has shut down two straight opponents.
| Line score | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 7 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| Missouri | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 |
Missouri's quarter on two Texas flags and a fumble. The Tiger touchdown drive went 68 yards with 25 of them on a personal foul and Roberson's pass interference; the goal-line stand that followed, Roberts for minus 1 on third-and-1, was the Texas front chip's best snap and Missouri scored on fourth down anyway. Texas's touchdown drive was the backs chip going the other way, Brown for 32 on three carries; Mosley's fumble and Geffrard's flag gave Missouri the 32 and three points. Smith's sack on Texas's first third down was the first tell's only sack in 20. The number: 25, the yards Missouri got from Texas flags on its touchdown drive.
Missouri led 10 to 7. Its touchdown drive was helped by two Texas penalties worth 25 yards; Texas answered with a touchdown of its own; then a Texas fumble set up a Missouri field goal.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 25 at 15:00 | 5 | 10 | PUNT | 0–0 |
| Missouri | own 32 at 11:52 | 7 | 68 | TD | 7–0 |
| Texas | own 35 at 8:40 | 7 | 65 | TD | 7–7 |
| Missouri | own 31 at 6:03 | 5 | 11 | PUNT | 7–7 |
| Texas | own 28 at 4:20 | 1 | 19 | FUMBLE | 7–7 |
| Missouri | Texas 47 at 4:06 | 9 | 43 | FG | 10–7 |
| Texas | own 25 at 1:06 | 8 | 28 | PUNT | 7–10 |
The Texas defense's quarter. Missouri's 12-play drive from its own 3 reached the 20 on Lee's 22 and Roberts's 12 on third-and-1, then Roberts was stopped for nothing, two throws missed and Craig missed from 38. Biles broke up two passes on the next three-and-out, and Cunningham blocked the punt; Texas got from the Missouri 39 to the 9 and kicked the tying field goal on fourth-and-1, Sarkisian taking the points. The third tell stood at 1 of 5 at the half, Texas's offense stuck behind its line for a quarter in the way the fail state described. The number: 0, Missouri's points on the 12-play drive that reached the Texas 20.
Neither offense did much. Missouri drove deep into Texas territory and missed a field goal; Texas blocked a Missouri punt and kicked a field goal to tie it 10 to 10 at halftime.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | own 3 at 11:27 | 12 | 77 | MISSED FG | 10–7 |
| Texas | own 20 at 6:47 | 3 | 8 | PUNT | 7–10 |
| Missouri | own 28 at 5:49 | 3 | 2 | BLOCKED PUNT | 10–7 |
| Texas | Missouri 39 at 4:59 | 6 | 30 | FG | 10–10 |
| Missouri | own 25 at 1:57 | 3 | 7 | PUNT | 10–10 |
Every kind of break, both ways. Missouri got a short field off Spetic's kickoff out of bounds and kicked a 48-yarder, then a shorter one off Niblett's fumble and missed it; Texas kicked from 34 after a sack at the 10. Montgomery's 72-yard catch-and-run was the Even deep chip's one Missouri play. Then the play of the game: third-and-10 at the Missouri 39, Huff's hit, the ball loose, review, Mosley's recovery for a first down, and Bishop Jr.'s 25-yard touchdown three snaps later on another third-and-10. The third tell stood at 4 of 9 after that throw, 3 without the fumble, and closed at 5 of 10 on Bishop Jr.'s 14 to open the fourth; Manning's 20th dropback, Wingo's 11 at 10:04, had closed the first at one sack. The number: 2, Missouri's field-goal tries off Texas mistakes in the quarter, and the 3 points they produced.
Both teams kicked field goals, and Missouri's Montgomery broke a 72-yard touchdown. Texas tied it on a lucky break, a fumble by Manning that was ruled a recovery and a first down for Texas, and a 25-yard touchdown pass to Jermaine Bishop Jr., 20 to 20.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | own 35 at 15:00 | 7 | 36 | FG | 13–10 |
| Missouri | Texas 30 at 11:43 | 4 | 3 | MISSED FG | 13–10 |
| Texas | own 27 at 10:38 | 10 | 56 | FG | 13–13 |
| Missouri | own 25 at 5:41 | 2 | 75 | TD | 20–13 |
| Texas | own 25 at 4:52 | 9 | 75 | TD | 20–20 |
| Missouri | own 12 at 1:48 | 6 | 16 | PUNT | 20–20 |
Fourteen to nothing, and Missouri's three drives that started in the quarter before the last minute gained minus 2 yards. Vasek's sack forced a punt from the 10, and the Texas drive that followed was Brown's: 12 and 6 on the ground, the 23-yard catch for 27–20. Missouri's next drive lost Simmons for one snap and went backward. The clinching turnover came on third-and-5 at midfield, Roberson's strip and Littleton's return, a doubtful player by our pregame read making the play of the quarter; Brown scored on third-and-8 after two runs for minus 1. The number: 21, the straight points Texas scored after trailing 20–13.
Texas scored twice and Missouri did not score. Brown's touchdown catch gave Texas the lead for good, and a forced fumble returned to the Missouri 6 set up Brown's touchdown run with 1:25 left.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 24 at 14:00 | 8 | 33 | PUNT | 20–20 |
| Missouri | own 18 at 9:33 | 3 | -8 | PUNT | 20–20 |
| Texas | own 46 at 7:41 | 6 | 54 | TD | 27–20 |
| Missouri | own 25 at 5:03 | 3 | -1 | PUNT | 20–27 |
| Texas | own 17 at 3:31 | 3 | 6 | PUNT | 27–20 |
| Missouri | own 43 at 2:00 | 3 | 7 | FUMBLE | 20–27 |
| Texas | Missouri 6 at 1:35 | 3 | 6 | TD | 34–20 |
| Missouri | own 29 at 1:24 | 5 | 18 | DOWNS | 20–34 |
| Texas | Missouri 47 at 0:43 | 2 | -2 | END OF GAME | 34–20 |
Drives and the line score from the committed postgame snapshot (drives.json, games.json); the prose is ours and is graded with everything else. Cells corrected by hand from the play-by-play: the snapshot writes four starts in the other half as "own 53", "own 61", "own 94" and "own 53" (printed here as the Texas 47, the Missouri 39, the Missouri 6 and the Missouri 47), the Missouri possession after Niblett's fumble started at the Texas 30, not its own 35, the second-quarter Missouri drive ended in the blocked punt, the last Missouri drive of the half ended in a punt (the snapshot says end of half), the Texas field-goal drive after the block gained 30 (the snapshot says 20), the last Missouri fumble drive gained 7 (the snapshot's minus 37 counts the return), and the last Texas possession ended the game. The score after each drive reads the offense first.
One in 20: Darris Smith on third-and-5 on the first drive. The 20th dropback was Wingo's 11-yard catch at 10:04 of the third quarter; the next two sacks, Beasley and Rodriguez's at the 10 and Huff's hit that became Mosley's recovery, came later in the third quarter. Missouri's rush hurried Manning eight times in the box and Hopkins three, so the front was not quiet; but one or none said the protection holds and Texas reaches 23, and Texas reached 34. RIGHT.
RIGHT. Missouri sacked Manning once in his first 20 passing plays. We said one or none meant Texas's blockers could hold up and Texas would score at least 23. Texas scored 34.
Fifty-two yards on 15, 3.5 a carry, the 15th his 3 at 11:30 of the third quarter, counting the 0-yard carry on which Geffrard's personal foul was called after the play; his long was 12, on third-and-1. He finished 19 for 66 with no touchdown. Under 4 said 20 is plenty for the Tiger side, and 20 is what Missouri scored. RIGHT.
RIGHT. Roberts averaged 3.5 yards on his first 15 carries, under the 4 we said meant Texas's front was winning, and Missouri scored exactly the 20 we wrote down for it.
Five of 10 as the box counts them: Mosley for 14 on third-and-6, Terry III for 3 on third-and-3, the Huff fumble Mosley recovered past the line to gain, Bishop Jr.'s 25-yard touchdown on third-and-10 and his 14 on third-and-4 to open the fourth quarter. Four without the fumble, and four is still the bar. It was 1 of 5 at the half, the fail state's half; the second half was the read's. Texas finished 6 of 13. RIGHT.
RIGHT. Texas converted at least 4 of its first 10 third downs (5 if you count a fumble Texas recovered past the first-down marker), and scored 34. It was only 1 of 5 at halftime.
All twelve pregame pairings, the edge we printed Monday, and what the game said. Chips are quoted verbatim from the scouting report.
| Pairing | Our call | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manning's Passing Game vs. the Tiger Secondary | Edge: Missouri, slight | 28 of 38 for 297 (7.8), 3 TD (Cooper 24, Bishop Jr. 25, Brown 23), no INT; Mosley V 5-85, Bishop Jr. 4-60, Wingo 6-53; Laulea 2 breakups and a PI | Wrong |
| The Texas Line vs. the Tiger Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Missouri | 107 on 26 without three sacks and two kneel-downs (4.1); 7 of 26 stopped at or behind the line (27%) against a front that stuffs 22.0%; 9 Missouri tackles for loss, 3 of them sacks; minus 1 twice at the 7 before Brown's TD | Partly |
| Brown, Terry and the Backs vs. the Tiger Run Defense | Edge: Missouri | Backs 22 for 101 (4.6), 1 TD: Brown 17-85 (long 13; the 8-yard TD on third-and-8), Terry III 3-14, Cooper 2-2 | Wrong |
| Texas Pass Protection vs. the Tiger Pass Rush | Edge: Missouri | 3 sacks (Smith on third-and-5, a punt; Beasley and Rodriguez at the 10, a field goal; Huff's hit, the fumble Mosley recovered for a first down); 8 hurries, Hopkins 3; one sack in the first 20 dropbacks | Partly |
| Texas Deep Game vs. Tiger Coverage | Edge: Texas, slight | Mosley V 31; Bishop Jr. 25 TD and Brown 23 TD, both deep right; a 15-yard PI on Laulea on a deep ball; a 34-yarder to Mosley erased by holding; deep misses to Wingo (2), Bishop Jr., Mosley | Right |
| Austin Simmons vs. Texas Coverage | Edge: Texas, slight | 23 of 43 for 252 (5.9), 2 TD, no INT; 22 of 42 for 180 (4.3) without the 72; Missouri 3 of 16 on third down | Right |
| Roberts, Hardy and the Tiger Backs vs. the Texas Run Defense | Edge: Texas | Roberts 19-66 (3.5, long 12), Hardy 1-3, Fowlkes 1-16; no Missouri rushing TD | Right |
| The Tiger Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Texas | Roberts minus 1 on third-and-1 at the 1 (Biles and Umeozulu) and 0 at the 20; Texas 3 tackles for loss, 1 a sack; Missouri made four of its other five short-yardage runs | Partly |
| Tiger Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass Rush | Edge: Texas, slight | 1 sack (Vasek, 10 yards, fourth quarter) and 4 hurries, Biles 3; Biles 2 breakups; Simmons 5.9 an attempt | Right |
| Lee, Olugbode and the Deep Game vs. Texas Coverage | Edge: Even | Montgomery 72 TD on a short throw; Lee 22 deep; deep misses to Goodie Sr., Fowlkes, Montgomery and Lee (2); Lee 9-79, Olugbode 3-40 | Right |
| Special Teams & Field Position | Edge: Missouri, slight | Craig 2 of 4 (22, 48; missed 38 and 46); Spetic 2 of 2 (27, 34); Cunningham's blocked punt (3 Texas points); Niblett's kickoff fumble (0 Missouri points); Reus 5 at 49.6, Chiumento 5 at 36.0 | Wrong |
| Coaching & Luck | Edge: Even | Turnovers 2-1 Missouri: 3 Missouri points off them, 7 Texas points; Manning's fumble recovered for a first down and upheld on review, a TD three snaps later; penalties Texas 7-65, Missouri 5-45; Missouri 1 of 2 on fourth down | Right |
Reading the grades honestly: six of twelve right, three partly, three wrong, and all three wrongs went Texas's way. The board split by side of the ball and so did the grades: every chip we gave Texas held, the run defense, the coverage, the deep game, the slight rush, and the Even deep chip held through one 72-yard play; every chip we gave Missouri on the Texas offense, the line, the backs, the protection and the secondary, was too big or wrong. The standing lesson: the Texas backs have now beaten a chip that leaned the other way in two of the last three weeks (Ole Miss, Missouri), with Mississippi State's slight chip right in between, so the season bar on the Texas run game is pricing a worse unit than the one on the field.
The honest summary: 6 of our 12 matchup calls were right, 3 half right and 3 WRONG, and every miss underrated Texas. Everything we said about Texas's defense held up. Everything we said about Missouri's defense stopping Texas's offense was too strong.
Our model said Texas by 3.2 (24.6–21.4); the market said Texas by 3 on Monday. Actual: Texas by 14. Model error 10.8, market error 11; both had the winner, and the model takes the week by two tenths of a point. The total was 54 against 43.5 Monday and 42 to 44.5 Saturday. Across every game we have called this season, 17 rows now scored, the market is closer on margin 11 to 6 and 14-3 straight up to the model's 13-4. The call follows the market; this week neither saw the fourth quarter.
Our computer said Texas by about 3, the betting line said Texas by 3, and Texas won by 14. Both had the right winner and both were about 11 points short; our computer was a hair closer. Over the season the betting line has been closer in 11 games and our computer in 6, which is why our published score follows the betting line.
The base rate we printed Monday: since 2023, road favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points were 41-30 straight up with a median margin of 3. Saturday was one more favorite's win, by 14. Raw rows: predictions.csv.
The last statuses on our Game Plan were Monday's reads; the Saturday pregame pass could not read the SEC's Friday report. Burnt Orange Nation, on game day (Nov 7, late morning ET), relayed the SEC's pregame report: Cam Coleman and Colin Simmons game-time decisions, and Ryan Wingo, Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton off the report after Friday's upgrade to probable. One contradiction, named as the gate requires: we listed Graceson Littleton, DB, as doubtful by our own read on Monday, from the SI Texas and Orangebloods reports of an ankle, heel or knee injury that might cost him the rest of the regular season; he played, made 4 tackles, and recovered Roberson's forced fumble and returned it 44 yards to set up the last touchdown. Our doubtful was wrong, and the SEC's own report had him probable by Friday; we did not read that report before the game. Against the box for the rest: Wingo caught 6 for 53 and ran once for 6; Phillips made 2 tackles; Derrek Cooper, our questionable, ran twice and caught the first touchdown; Coleman and Colin Simmons have no stat, and the Daily Texan (Nov 7) reports Coleman was ruled out; Hollywood Smothers (out for the season, the Daily Texan, Nov 7) and Richard Wesley have no stat; Trevor Goosby was out for the season. For Missouri, Ahmad Hardy ran once for 3 and Austin Simmons started, with Matt Zollers in for one third-down throw in the fourth quarter. In-game, Burnt Orange Nation's live post (Nov 7) has Ian Geffrard taking "a knock" in the second quarter, and the play-by-play has him back making tackles in the third; Hero Kanu went down before the end of the third, and his status is not reported anywhere we could read. Missouri's Austin Simmons was hurt on Vasek's tackle on a fourth-quarter draw and missed one snap; Burnt Orange Nation has him hobbling off.
One of our injury reads was wrong: we said defensive back Graceson Littleton would probably not play, and he played and made one of the biggest plays of the game, a 44-yard fumble return. The conference's own report had cleared him by Friday; we had not read it. Receiver Cam Coleman did not play, and edge rusher Colin Simmons does not appear in the statistics. Receiver Ryan Wingo and defensive back Kade Phillips, who both left last week's game, played. Running back Hollywood Smothers is out for the season. Two Texas defensive linemen were hurt during the game: Ian Geffrard came back, and we found no word on Hero Kanu. Missouri's quarterback, Austin Simmons, was hurt in the fourth quarter and missed one play.
Postgame pieces we opened and dated, all from Texas's beat: Burnt Orange Nation (Nov 7: the takeaways, Sarkisian's postgame, Roberson and Littleton, the final score and injuries) and the Daily Texan (Nov 7, the game story). The official Texas recap, the postgame press conference and the highlight video were not readable from here this morning, and Missouri's postgame words live on sites outside this page's reach; we link nothing we did not open. Where the beat and the box differ (Burnt Orange Nation counts six Texas penalties for 65, the Daily Texan seven, the box seven), the box is printed.
The pregame chatter note said Longhorn talk was the injury list and the protection, and that nothing in it moved a number on the page. The injury half held: Coleman did not play and Smothers is done for the season. The protection worry did not come true. Postgame, the talk turned to toughness at the line and the officiating.