Texas · Week 10 · The Scouting Report Game week of Nov 2–7 · published Nov 2

The Scouting Report: Texas Goes to Columbia With Five Players Hurt and a Line That Gave Up Five Sacks, Against the Best Run Front It Has Seen, and the Line Says a Field Goal

Texas is 6-2 and No. 10 in the AP poll after Texas 31, Mississippi State 3: seven sacks for the defense, three by Rasheem Biles, and 16 of 20 for 220 and three touchdowns from Arch Manning, who was sacked five times behind a line that ran 32 times for 60. Five Texas players did not finish (Coleman, Wingo, Smothers, Littleton, Phillips), and Sarkisian said "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment." Missouri is 6-2 and No. 19 after Missouri 34, Arkansas 10, with Jamal Roberts past 1,000 yards and Austin Simmons at 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. DraftKings has Texas at −3 on 43.5, down from 49.5 when it opened. The board gives Texas five chips, Missouri five, with two Even, and it splits by side of the ball: Missouri owns every pairing in the Texas run game and protection, Texas owns every pairing against the Missouri run game.

Everything we think about this game. Texas is 6-2 and ranked No. 10 after beating Mississippi State 31 to 3: its defense sacked the quarterback seven times, three by Rasheem Biles, and Arch Manning completed 16 of 20 passes for three touchdowns, but he was sacked five times and Texas ran for 60 yards on 32 carries. Five Texas players got hurt and did not finish, including receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, and Sarkisian said "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment." Missouri is 6-2 and ranked No. 19 after beating Arkansas 34 to 10, with running back Jamal Roberts over 1,000 yards. The people betting on the game have Texas by 3, and expect fewer points than they did when the line opened. We give Texas five of the twelve matchups, Missouri five and call two toss-ups, and they split by side of the ball: Missouri wins every matchup when Texas tries to run or protect Manning, and Texas wins every matchup when Missouri tries to run.

Sat, Nov 7 · 11:00 AM CT · ESPN Memorial Stadium (Faurot Field), Columbia Line (Friday, Nov 6): Texas −3 at DraftKings (same as Monday; opened −3.5) and Texas −2.5 at Bovada (no Monday line to compare) · over/under 42.5 at both (DraftKings Monday 43.5, down a point; opened 49.5) · Monday's call was made on −3 and 43.5 · Forecast (National Weather Service, Saturday morning): partly sunny, 48 at kickoff, wind 1 mph Series: Texas leads 17-4 in our data service's count · last meeting Texas 33, Missouri 16 (Texas Bowl, Dec 27, 2017)

The Call · made Nov 2, on Monday's line, and left alonegraded Sunday

Texas 23

the call

Missouri 20

their side

Texas −3

the betting line, Monday

Texas by 3.2

our computer model

Why this number: The 23–20 call rides the market, frozen on Monday's lines. DraftKings opened Texas at −3.5 and sits at −3, and its total opened at 49.5 and sits at 43.5, six points of scoring gone in a week; the data service carried no Bovada line for this game, so DraftKings is the consensus. Three points of margin on 43.5 points of scoring splits to 23.25 and 20.25, so Texas 23, Missouri 20. The moneyline, Texas −148 and Missouri +124, works out to about a 57% chance Texas wins with the book's margin taken out. Our computer model, built on SP+ ratings with 2.5 points for the home field, says Texas 24.6–21.4, Texas by 3.2, within a quarter point of the line, on a total two and a half higher; its ratings have Texas at +20.4 (8th) and Missouri at +14.2 (18th). We print the model so it can be graded, not so anyone should bet it; on margin the market leads it 10 to 5 this season, and straight up the market is 12-3 to the model's 11-4. The history, from the first five weeks because that is the backtest we hold: since 2023, road favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points are 41-30 straight up, and the median margin across all 71 of those games is 3. A three-point road favorite is close to a coin with a thumb on it. What makes this number wrong in Texas's favor: the Texas defense is the best unit on the field, holding opponents to 33.3% on third down and success on 33.5% of plays (95th percentile), and the Missouri run game it faces sits at the 12th percentile in rushing success. What makes it wrong in Missouri's favor: the Texas line is at the 13th percentile in line yards and the 9th in havoc allowed against a Tiger front at the 91st and 74th, Manning was sacked five times by Mississippi State, and Missouri is plus 8 in turnovers to Texas's minus 3.

Why we picked this score: The people betting on this game have Texas as a 3-point favorite on the road, and we wrote the score down from Monday's betting line. The book we follow opened Texas by 3.5 and moved to 3, and it now expects about 43 or 44 points, down from about 50 when the line opened. That splits to Texas 23, Missouri 20. The betting odds give Texas about a 57% chance to win once the book's built-in margin is taken out. Our own computer says Texas by about 3, Texas 25, Missouri 21, almost exactly the line; it rates Texas about the 8th-best team in the country and Missouri about 18th. We print the computer's number so you can see it, but the betting line has been the better guide this season (closer to the final margin 10 times to 5, and right about the winner 12 times in 15 to the computer's 11), so the line is what we follow. The history: since 2023, in the first five weeks of a season, teams favored by about 3 points on the road have won 41 games and lost 30, and the typical final margin is 3. In other words, close to a coin flip that leans Texas. How this goes better for Texas: Texas's defense is among the very best in the country and Missouri's running game, for all its yards, gets stopped short more than almost anyone's. How it goes better for Missouri: Texas's blockers are among the worst in the country, Missouri's front is among the best, Arch Manning was sacked five times last week, and Missouri has taken the ball away eight more times than it has given it up.

Game day: Checked Saturday morning. The conference's Friday evening availability report could not be read here, so Monday's statuses stand, and the 90-minute report is still to come. DraftKings kept Texas at −3 and took a point off the total, to 42.5; Bovada has Texas at −2.5 on 42.5. The call is Texas by 3, so the line has not crossed it and the call stands. Columbia is forecast partly sunny and 48 degrees at kickoff with a 1 mph wind.

On game day: Checked Saturday morning. The conference's Friday evening injury report could not be read here, so Monday's injury news stands, and the last report comes 90 minutes before the game. The betting line still has Texas by about 3 (3 at DraftKings, 2.5 at Bovada), and the expected total points came down a point, to 42.5. We predicted Texas by 3, so our call stands. Columbia should be partly sunny and 48 degrees at kickoff with almost no wind.

Three Tells, Measured Early

Sacks on Manning over his first 20 dropbacks. Texas allows havoc on 18.1% of plays, the 9th percentile, has given up 24 sacks in eight games, and gave up five to a Mississippi State rush that last week's board had at the 30th; the Tiger front seven creates havoc at the 74th with 19 sacks, Daeden Hopkins seven and Donta Simpson five. One or none in 20 says the protection without Goosby can hold up against a real rush and Texas reaches 23; three or more says Missouri's front is the game, and 23 is too many.The first sign is how many times Missouri sacks Arch Manning on his first 20 passing plays. Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost any line in the country, have allowed 24 sacks in eight games and gave up five to Mississippi State last week. Missouri's pass rush is better than most, led by Daeden Hopkins with seven sacks. One or none in 20 says the Texas line can hold up and Texas gets to 23 points; three or more says Missouri's front is the story of the game, and 23 is too many.
Jamal Roberts's first 15 carries. Roberts has 1,005 yards at 5.3 a carry with nine touchdowns and an 80-yard long, but Missouri's rushing success rate is 37.7%, the 12th percentile: a few long runs and a lot of short ones. Texas allows rush success on 32.3% (96th), 2.84 a carry and four rushing touchdowns in eight games. Under 4 a carry over 15 says the Texas front owns the line and 20 is plenty for the Tiger side; 6 or better says Roberts found the long one and Missouri can stay out of passing downs, and 20 is not enough.The second sign is how Missouri's running back Jamal Roberts does on his first 15 carries. Roberts has run for over 1,000 yards, but Missouri's running game is all or nothing: some long runs and a lot of short ones. Texas's run defense is among the best in the country and has given up four rushing touchdowns all season. Under 4 yards a carry over 15 says Texas's front is winning and 20 points is plenty for Missouri's side; 6 or better says Roberts broke loose and Missouri can keep the ball, and 20 is not enough.
Texas's first 10 third downs. Texas converts 39.6% (44 of 111); Missouri allows 37.9% (47 of 124) and pass success on 35.9% (85th), with 7 interceptions and DB havoc at the 93rd. Four or more of 10 says Manning is moving the chains against one of the best secondaries Texas has seen and 23 is there; two or fewer says the Texas offense is stuck behind its line, and the Texas side of the call is too high.The third sign is how many of Texas's first 10 third downs it converts. Texas converts about four in ten; Missouri's defense allows a bit fewer and is among the best in the country at defending passes and breaking them up. Four or more of 10 says Arch Manning is moving the ball against a good defense and 23 points is there; two or fewer says the Texas offense is stuck behind its blockers, and 23 points is too many.

The words we use

The call is the final score we are predicting. We write it down before the game and leave it alone, the way you would write your guess on a napkin before kickoff and not touch it after.

The market is the betting line, which is the number of points the people wagering real money expect the favorite to win by. Those people have been better at this than our computer so far, so our call leans on their number.

The model is our computer's own guess at the score, built from the season's numbers. We print it next to the betting line so you can see when the two agree and when they do not.

Tells are three early signs to watch in the first stretch of the game. If they show up, the game is going the way we said; if they do not, we were probably wrong, and you will know it before we do.

Edges are our answer, one matchup at a time, to the question of which team has the better side of it.

Graded means that on Sunday we go back over everything we said and mark each piece right, partly right, or wrong.

The Bottom Line

Texas by a field goal, and the shape of it is the best defense on the field against a Missouri offense that runs for big plays and rarely converts the short ones, and a Texas line at the bottom of the country against a Tiger front near the top. Missouri is 6-2 and No. 19 after Missouri 34, Arkansas 10 at Fayetteville, where Jamal Roberts ran 23 times for 138 and passed 1,000 yards (SI Missouri). Austin Simmons is 151 of 239 for 1,935, 8.1 an attempt, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions; Cayden Lee has 730 receiving yards and Donovan Olugbode seven touchdowns. The Tiger defense allows success on 35.7% of plays (88th percentile), pass success at the 85th, and it has 19 sacks and seven interceptions. Its soft spot is the big play: explosiveness allowed at the 14th percentile. Texas is 6-2 and No. 10 after Texas 31, Mississippi State 3: seven sacks, three by Rasheem Biles, and 187 yards allowed, but 32 carries for 60 yards and five sacks on Arch Manning, who went 16 of 20 for 220 and three touchdowns. Five Texas players did not finish (Sarkisian: "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment," SI Texas). The two teams have three common opponents: Texas beat Mississippi State and Ole Miss and lost to Florida; Missouri beat Florida 45–17 and lost at Mississippi State and at Ole Miss.

We think Texas wins by about a field goal, and the shape of it is Texas's defense, among the best in the country, against a Missouri offense that gets big plays and often gets stuck on short ones, and Texas's blockers, among the worst in the country, against one of the best fronts Texas will see. Missouri is 6-2 and ranked No. 19 after beating Arkansas 34 to 10, with running back Jamal Roberts going over 1,000 yards for the season. Its quarterback, Austin Simmons, has thrown 16 touchdown passes and two interceptions. Missouri's defense is among the best in the country at stopping plays and defending passes, and has 19 sacks; what it gives up is the long play. Texas is 6-2 and ranked No. 10 after beating Mississippi State 31 to 3: its defense sacked the quarterback seven times, three by Rasheem Biles, and gave up 187 yards. But Texas ran 32 times for 60 yards, and Arch Manning was sacked five times, though he completed 16 of 20 passes with three touchdowns. Five Texas players got hurt and did not finish, and Sarkisian said "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment." The two teams have played three of the same opponents: Texas beat Mississippi State and Ole Miss and lost to Florida; Missouri beat Florida by 28 and lost to Mississippi State and Ole Miss on the road.

Common opponents: Mississippi State (Texas 31–3 at home on Oct 31; Missouri lost 31–24 in Starkville), Florida (Texas lost 27–24 at home; Missouri won 45–17 at home) and Ole Miss (Texas won 34–27 at home; Missouri lost 31–3 in Oxford). Pace: Texas has held the ball 30:02 a game, Missouri 30:23. Missouri was off in Week 8 and is in its second game back; Texas has played eight games in nine weeks, with its only bye in Week 5. Ratings in the table and the model are SP+ as published on Monday, Nov 2.

What success looks like for Texas

Get the ball out. Five sacks against Mississippi State, 24 in eight games, a protection at the 9th percentile in havoc allowed without Trevor Goosby, against a front at the 74th with Daeden Hopkins's seven sacks. Sarkisian: "I don't want a bloody hand and him getting sacked five times. That's not a recipe for success" (Burnt Orange Nation). Manning's 16 of 20 says the throws are there when he has the time.Throw it quickly. Manning was sacked five times last week and 24 times this season, and Missouri's pass rush is better than Mississippi State's. Sarkisian: "I don't want a bloody hand and him getting sacked five times. That's not a recipe for success." When Manning had time he completed 16 of 20.
Go deep at the one soft spot. Missouri allows success on few plays but allows explosive passes at the 38th percentile and explosive plays overall at the 14th. Texas's pass explosiveness is at the 73rd; Emmett Mosley V had a 42-yard touchdown on Saturday, 4 catches for 98, and averages 16.8 a catch. Whether Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are on the field is the week's question.Take shots down the field. Missouri's defense rarely gives up short gains but gives up long plays more than most. Emmett Mosley V caught a 42-yard touchdown pass on Saturday. Whether receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, both hurt last week, can play is the question of the week.
Do not give the Tigers the ball. Missouri is plus 8 in turnover margin, two interceptions thrown in 255 attempts and seven made, with Trajen Greco's three; Texas is minus 3, and Manning accounts for 10 of its 12 giveaways (seven interceptions, three lost fumbles, one of them on a sack Saturday). In a game the market makes three points, one short field is the margin.Do not turn it over. Missouri has taken the ball away eight more times than it has given it up, and has thrown only two interceptions all season; Texas is three behind, and most of its giveaways are Manning's: seven interceptions and three lost fumbles, one on a sack last week. In a game this close, one turnover can decide it.

How Missouri wins it

Win at the line. The widest bars on the board are Missouri's: its front at the 91st percentile in line yards allowed against a Texas line at the 13th, and its run defense at the 83rd against a Texas run game at the 16th. Texas ran 32 times for 60 on Saturday. If Texas is in third and long all morning, the rush gets its chances.Win up front. The biggest gaps on our board are Missouri's: its front against Texas's blockers, and its run defense against Texas's running game. Texas ran for 60 yards on 32 carries last week. If Texas faces long third downs all day, Missouri's pass rush gets its chances.
Find the long run. Roberts's 80-yard long and 5.3 a carry sit on a rushing success rate at the 12th percentile; Missouri's run game lives on a few big ones. Ahmad Hardy, back on Saturday from 309 days out, had two carries (SI Missouri). Texas allows rush success at the 96th percentile and 2.84 a carry, so the Tigers need the one that gets through.Break a long run. Jamal Roberts averages over 5 yards a carry because of a few long runs; most of his carries are short. Ahmad Hardy, last year's 1,600-yard back, is back for the first time since he was shot in the leg in May, and adds a second back. Texas's run defense is among the best in the country, so Missouri needs the one run that gets through.
The early kick, the home crowd and the kicking game. The kick is 11 AM CT in Columbia, Missouri's field position is at the 95th percentile to Texas's 45th, DaMarion Fowlkes has a punt-return touchdown and a 30.7 kickoff-return average, and Texas has allowed two punt-return touchdowns. Blake Craig is 13 of 19 on field goals, so the kicking game cuts both ways.Field position. Missouri starts its drives in better spots than almost anyone, its returner DaMarion Fowlkes has a punt-return touchdown, and Texas has given up two punt-return touchdowns. Missouri's kicker has missed six field goals, though, so the kicking game cuts both ways.

The Matchup Board

Each bar is that side of the team's rank against every other team in the country, computed from 2026 through eight games for each team with garbage time removed, with last year's bar for the same pairing faint beneath where it tells the trend. The edge label on each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years and at the injuries. Two are made slight on what the bars cannot see: the Texas deep game, because Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo did not finish Saturday, and the Texas coverage, because Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips did not either.

Each bar shows how good that side of the team is compared with every other team in the country, using this season's eight games, with last year's bar faint beneath where it helps. The longer bar has the edge, and the label next to each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years and at the injuries. Two of our calls are made smaller on what the bars cannot see: Texas's long passing game, because receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo got hurt Saturday, and Texas's pass defense, because defensive backs Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips did too.

Where it gets decided

Early downs

First and second down, both ways, and the board splits cleanly. Missouri takes both when Texas runs: the Tiger front against the Texas line by 78 points, the Tiger run defense against the Texas backs by 67. Texas takes both when Missouri runs, by 59 and 50. The faint 2025 bars say the Texas line has slid from the 35th percentile to the 13th.

First and second down, both ways, and our board splits cleanly. Missouri wins both matchups when Texas runs the ball, by a lot; Texas wins both when Missouri runs it, by a lot. Last year's faint bars say the Texas blocking has gotten worse since last season.

Third down and sub-packages

The money downs. Texas converts 39.6% and Missouri allows 37.9%; Missouri converts 42.0% and Texas allows 33.3%. The sub-packages: the Tiger rush against the Texas protection is Missouri's, at full size; the Texas rush against a Tiger protection that has allowed seven sacks in eight games is Texas's, slight; Manning against the Tiger secondary is Missouri's, slight; Simmons against the Texas coverage is Texas's, slight with two defensive backs hurt. The first and third tells live here.

The downs that decide drives. Texas converts about four in ten third downs and Missouri allows a bit fewer; Missouri converts about four in ten and Texas allows a third. Missouri's pass rush against Texas's blockers is a Missouri edge; Texas's pass rush against Missouri's blockers, who have allowed only seven sacks, is a slight Texas edge; each quarterback faces a good pass defense. The first and third signs above live here.

Red zone, goal line and special teams

The compressed field and the kicking game. Texas scores 4.53 points per scoring opportunity (87th percentile) against a Tiger defense that allows 2.95 (81st); Missouri scores 3.57 (38th) against a Texas defense that allows 2.32 (96th). The deep game leans Texas on Texas's side, slight, and is Even on Missouri's. Field position is Missouri's, slight: the Tigers start at the 95th percentile, Texas at the 45th, though Spetic is 12 of 13 and Craig 13 of 19.

Close to the goal line, and the kicking game. Once a drive gets close, Texas scores more than most offenses and Missouri less; Texas's defense is among the very best at keeping those drives to field goals. Long passes lean Texas slightly on its side and are a toss-up on Missouri's. Missouri starts drives in better field position, a slight Missouri edge, though Texas's kicker is more accurate.

When Texas has the ball

Manning's Passing Game vs. the Tiger SecondaryThird downEdge: Missouri, slight

52%

76%

202565%

84%

The bar leans Missouri by 24 (Texas passing value at the 52nd percentile, Missouri pass value allowed at the 76th, pass success allowed at the 85th, 35.9%, DB havoc at the 93rd); the 2025 bar leaned Missouri by 19 (65 vs. 84). Manning is 141 of 217 for 1,730, 8.0 an attempt, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and 16 of 20 for 220 with three touchdowns on Saturday. Missouri has seven interceptions, Greco three. Missouri, slight: the secondary is the best Texas has seen in weeks, and Manning has thrown well when he has had time. This year's numbers lean Missouri: Texas's passing game has been about average, and Missouri's pass defense is among the better ones in the country at stopping throws and breaking them up. Last year leaned Missouri too. Manning has 15 touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and completed 16 of 20 last week. A slight Missouri edge.

The Texas Line vs. the Tiger Front (Run Blocking)Early downsEdge: Missouri

13%

91%

202535%

85%

The widest bar on the board, 78 points: Texas line yards at the 13th percentile (2.71 a carry), the Tiger front allowing 2.53, the 91st, and stuffing 22.0% of runs (79th). The 2025 bar leaned Missouri by 50 (35 vs. 85). Texas ran 32 times for 60 on Saturday against a front the board had Even, without Goosby. Missouri. The biggest gap on our board: Texas's blockers are in the bottom seventh of the country at opening running lanes, and Missouri's front is among the best at closing them. Last year leaned Missouri too. Texas ran for 60 yards on 32 carries last week against a weaker front. A Missouri edge.

Brown, Terry and the Backs vs. the Tiger Run DefenseEarly downsEdge: Missouri

16%

83%

202549%

76%

The bar leans Missouri by 67 (Texas rushing value at the 16th percentile, Missouri run value allowed at the 83rd, rush success allowed at the 81st, 2.96 a carry and four rushing touchdowns allowed in eight games). The 2025 bar leaned Missouri by 27 (49 vs. 76). Raleek Brown is 92 for 452 with five touchdowns; Hollywood Smothers left Saturday with what SI Texas, relaying Orangebloods, called "severe shoulder and knee injuries," and Derrek Cooper has been dealing with "a lingering injury seemingly all season long" (SI Texas). Missouri. Texas's running game has been in the bottom fifth of the country, and Missouri's run defense near the top. Last year leaned Missouri too. Raleek Brown leads Texas with 452 yards; Hollywood Smothers was hurt Saturday and may be out a long time, and Derrek Cooper has been banged up all season. A Missouri edge.

Texas Pass Protection vs. the Tiger Pass RushThird downEdge: Missouri

74%

202543%

93%

The bar leans Missouri by 65 (Texas havoc allowed at the 9th percentile, 18.1% of plays, 24 sacks allowed; Tiger front-seven havoc at the 74th, 11.0%, with Daeden Hopkins's seven sacks and Donta Simpson's five, each with seven hurries). The 2025 bar leaned Missouri by 50 (43 vs. 93). Goosby is out for the season and Mississippi State, a rush at the 30th on last week's board, had five sacks Saturday. Missouri, at full size. Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost anyone, and have allowed 24 sacks; Missouri's pass rush is better than most, with Daeden Hopkins at seven sacks and Donta Simpson at five. Last year leaned Missouri too. Left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season, and a weaker pass rush got five sacks last week. A Missouri edge; the first sign above counts what it costs.

Texas Deep Game vs. Tiger CoverageRed zoneEdge: Texas, slight

73%

38%

202592%

40%

The bar leans Texas by 35 (Texas pass explosiveness at the 73rd percentile, Missouri explosiveness allowed on passes at the 38th, 1.58 a play); the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 52 (92 vs. 40). Mosley is 25 for 419 at 16.8 with a 42-yard touchdown on Saturday; Coleman is 22 for 395 at 18.0 with seven touchdowns and left Saturday "in street clothes" after trying to return from the shoulder (Burnt Orange Nation); Wingo, 36 for 470, did not finish either. Texas, slight, on who is healthy. Texas's long passing game is better than most, and Missouri's defense gives up long passes more than most; last year leaned Texas too. Emmett Mosley V caught a 42-yard touchdown Saturday, but Cam Coleman, Texas's touchdown leader, and Ryan Wingo, its catch leader, both got hurt. A slight Texas edge, slight because of the injuries.

When Missouri has the ball

Austin Simmons vs. Texas CoverageThird downEdge: Texas, slight

86%

77%

202573%

26%

The bar leans Texas by 9 (Texas pass value allowed at the 86th percentile, pass success allowed at the 91st, 34.7%; Missouri passing value at the 77th, passing-downs value at the 67th). Simmons, not the Texas edge rusher, is 151 of 239 for 1,935, 8.1 an attempt, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. Texas has allowed six touchdown passes in eight games. The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 47 (73 vs. 26). Texas, slight: Graceson Littleton, arguably Texas's best defensive back by SI Texas's reckoning, and Kade Phillips did not finish Saturday, and Orangebloods via SI Texas reports Littleton could miss the rest of the regular season. Texas's pass defense is among the best in the country, and Missouri's passing game is good too: quarterback Austin Simmons has 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Last year leaned Texas by more. A slight Texas edge, slight because two Texas defensive backs, Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips, were hurt Saturday, and one report says Littleton could be out for the rest of the regular season.

Roberts, Hardy and the Tiger Backs vs. the Texas Run DefenseEarly downsEdge: Texas

86%

36%

202586%

88%

The bar leans Texas by 50 (Texas run value allowed at the 86th percentile, rush success allowed at the 96th, 32.3%, four rushing touchdowns allowed; Missouri rushing value at the 36th and success at the 12th). Roberts is 190 for 1,005 and nine touchdowns with an 80-yard long, 23 for 138 at Arkansas; Hardy is back. The 2025 bar leaned Missouri by 2 (86 vs. 88), so this is the pairing that flipped. Texas. Texas's run defense is among the best in the country; Missouri's running game piles up yards on a few long runs but is stopped short more than almost anyone's. Jamal Roberts has over 1,000 yards. Last year this was even. A Texas edge.

The Tiger Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking)Early downsEdge: Texas

91%

32%

202578%

75%

The bar leans Texas by 59 (the Texas front allows 2.54 line yards, the 91st percentile, and stuffs 21.8% of runs, the 76th; the Tiger line creates 2.92, the 32nd). The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 3 (78 vs. 75). The front had seven sacks without Colin Simmons on Saturday. Texas. Texas's front is among the best in the country at the line, and Missouri's blockers are below average at opening lanes. Last year was close to even. A Texas edge.

Tiger Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass RushThird downEdge: Texas, slight

88%

41%

202581%

81%

The bar leans Texas by 47 (Texas front-seven havoc at the 88th percentile, 12.8%, 26 sacks; the Tiger protection allows havoc at the 41st, 15.4%), and the chip is slight, said so: Missouri has allowed seven sacks in eight games, fewer than any team Texas has played except Ole Miss (five). Biles had three sacks, four tackles for loss and two forced fumbles Saturday; Simmons, out two games with the ankle, is the one Sarkisian named ("obviously Colin," Burnt Orange Nation). The 2025 bars were level (81 vs. 81). Texas, slight. Texas's defense gets into the backfield more than almost anyone, with 26 sacks, and Missouri's blockers let defenders through about as often as average. But Missouri has allowed only seven sacks all season, so we keep it slight. Rasheem Biles had three sacks Saturday; Colin Simmons may be back. A slight Texas edge.

Lee, Olugbode and the Deep Game vs. Texas CoverageRed zoneEdge: Even

87%

80%

Seven points apart (Texas explosiveness allowed on passes at the 87th percentile, 1.42 a play; Missouri pass explosiveness at the 80th). Cayden Lee is 51 for 730 with a 47, Donovan Olugbode 41 for 593 with seven touchdowns and a 65. With two Texas defensive backs hurt, the seven points are not enough to lean on. Even. Texas's defense rarely gives up long passes, and Missouri's long passing game is better than most: Cayden Lee has 730 yards and Donovan Olugbode seven touchdowns. With two Texas defensive backs hurt, a toss-up.

The margins

Special Teams & Field PositionSpecial teamsEdge: Missouri, slight

45%

95%

202585%

24%

The bar leans Missouri by 50 (average starting spot at the 45th percentile, 71.2 yards from the goal, to Missouri's 95th, 66.9; last year 85 vs. 24, Texas's). The returners lean Missouri: Fowlkes 8 punt returns for 131 and a touchdown and 30.7 on kickoffs, to Ryan Niblett's 20 for 217 and a touchdown; Texas's cover units have allowed two punt-return touchdowns. The kickers lean Texas: Gianni Spetic 12 of 13 with a 52, Blake Craig 13 of 19 with a 53. Punting is close (Brunno Reus 43.9, 13 inside the 20; Mac Chiumento 42.9). Missouri, slight. Missouri starts its drives in better spots than almost anyone, and its returner, DaMarion Fowlkes, has a punt-return touchdown; Texas's punt team has given up two. But Texas's kicker has made 12 of 13 field goals and Missouri's 13 of 19. A slight Missouri edge.

Coaching & LuckEdge: Even

No computed bar, and Even. The luck half: Missouri is plus 8 in turnover margin, fumbles plus 3 and interceptions plus 5; the fumble part is the kind that does not hold, and two interceptions in 255 attempts is part quarterback. Texas is minus 3. The coaching half: Drinkwitz after Arkansas, on nine penalties for 80, "That's a self-control penalty. That's uncalled for" (SI Missouri); Sarkisian on the injuries, "That recovery has to start now for a lot of these guys" (SI Texas). Missouri is at home, in its second game since a bye; Texas is on its first road trip since Tennessee. Even. No bar here, and a toss-up. Missouri has taken the ball away eight more times than it has lost it; some of that is luck on fumbles, which does not last, and some is a quarterback who rarely throws interceptions. Texas is three behind. Missouri's coach was angry about nine penalties at Arkansas; Sarkisian is managing a long injury list. Missouri is at home. A toss-up.

Game-Week Intel

Texas Storylines

Five did not finish. Sarkisian after Mississippi State: "Graceson Littleton didn't finish the game, Cam Coleman didn't finish the game, Kade Phillips didn't finish the game, Hollywood Smothers didn't finish the game, Ryan Wingo didn't finish the game," and "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment" (SI Texas, Oct 31). On Sunday SI Texas relayed Anwar Richardson of Orangebloods that Smothers and Littleton "could miss the rest of the regular season," Smothers with "severe shoulder and knee injuries" (SI Texas, Nov 1); that is a report, not an official word. Coleman spent the second half "in street clothes after trying to return from the shoulder injury he sustained against Ole Miss" (Burnt Orange Nation, Nov 1). Sarkisian: "We'll have a better gauge midweek of where everybody is."
Biles, and seven sacks. Rasheem Biles had three sacks, four tackles for loss and two forced fumbles, one of them the strip Maraad Watson returned 61 yards for a touchdown; Sarkisian: "Anytime you have three sacks, four TFLs, two force fumbles, pretty incredible performance for him" (SI Texas, Nov 1). Texas moved from No. 11 to No. 10 in the AP poll and stayed No. 11 in the Coaches (Burnt Orange Nation, Nov 1). The first committee rankings come Tuesday.
Manning, sacked five times. Manning was 16 of 20 for 220 and three touchdowns and was sacked five times; Sarkisian: "I don't want a bloody hand and him getting sacked five times. That's not a recipe for success. Is he going to run it some? Yes... But there's a line we got to be careful we don't cross over with him" (Burnt Orange Nation, Nov 1). Texas ran 32 times for 60, which Burnt Orange Nation called "a dud against one of the weaker run defenses" (Nov 1). The first and third tells measure both halves of it.

Missouri Storylines

Roberts past 1,000, and Hardy back. Missouri 34, Arkansas 10 in Fayetteville on Oct 31: Jamal Roberts ran 23 times for 138 and a touchdown and passed 1,000 yards for the season, and Ahmad Hardy played for the first time in 309 days, two carries for five; he was shot in the upper leg after a concert on May 10 and had surgery, and last year he set Missouri's single-season record with 1,649 yards (SI Missouri, Nov 1). Roberts: "I feel like we back." Drinkwitz: "I'm really, really proud of Ahmad Hardy. It's been a long road to get back here."
Slow starts and flags. Missouri was 2 for 9 on third down in the first half at Arkansas and was flagged nine times for 80 yards; Drinkwitz on one of them: "That's a self-control penalty. That's uncalled for," and on the offense, "continually (stubbing) our toe with penalties" (SI Missouri, Nov 1). Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss transfer, was 20 of 31 for 179 and two touchdowns: "Really just starting fast, it's always been the mindset with us as an offense" (SI Missouri, Nov 1).
No. 19, and the stretch ahead. Missouri rose from No. 23 to No. 19 in both polls and is 1-1 against currently ranked teams, a 31–3 loss at Ole Miss and a 45–17 win over Florida; after Texas come Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma (SI Missouri, Nov 1). Missouri also beat Texas A&M 27–6 on Oct 10. The last meeting with Texas was the Texas Bowl, Texas 33, Missouri 16, on Dec 27, 2017.

Chatter check: Longhorn talk on Sunday was the injury list and the protection: Burnt Orange Nation's observations (Nov 1) on Manning's "internal clock," and SI Texas (Oct 31) on fans who "feel that Coleman has yet to fully live up to the expectations." Burnt Orange Nation's odds piece (Nov 1) had Texas favored by 3.5 at FanDuel. Nothing in it moves a number on this page.

Availability & Injury Report · no SEC report yet this week (the conference posts Wednesday to Friday); what follows is the coaches' and the beat's word since Saturday's games, and this block is rechecked on game day. Texas: Trevor Goosby · OL · Out for the season (SI Texas, Oct 31), knee (the Oct 30 SEC report, Burnt Orange Nation). Colin Simmons · EDGE · Questionable (our read), ankle, out the last two games; Sarkisian wants him back ("obviously Colin," Burnt Orange Nation, Nov 1). Richard Wesley · EDGE · Out (our read), ankle, out on the last SEC report (Oct 30), no word since. Hollywood Smothers · RB · Doubtful (our read), shoulder and knee, helped off Saturday; Orangebloods via SI Texas reports he could miss the rest of the regular season. Graceson Littleton · DB · Doubtful (our read), left after 10 snaps; SI Texas saw an ankle or heel injury, the Orangebloods report says knee and possibly the rest of the regular season. Cam Coleman · WR · Questionable (our read), shoulder, second half in street clothes. Ryan Wingo · WR · Questionable (our read), did not finish, injury unclear. Kade Phillips · DB · Questionable (our read), did not finish, injury unclear. Derrek Cooper · RB · Questionable (our read), a lingering injury. Kaliq Lockett · WR · Available, off the SEC report Oct 30. Arch Manning · QB · Available, the starter. Missouri: Ahmad Hardy · RB · Available, back Saturday after 309 days (gunshot wound, May 10). Austin Simmons · QB · Available, the starter. No Missouri injury news found since Saturday. Statuses marked "our read" are ours from the coaches' and reporters' words, not an official designation; the SEC's Wednesday, Thursday and Friday reports replace them. Rechecked on game day.

Press Conferences

Coach Sarkisian

Nov 8 · Postgame press conference (Texas Athletics) Hear from Head Coach Steve Sarkisian after today's win at Missouri
Nov 7 · Postgame press conference (Texas Athletics) Hear from Head Coach Steve Sarkisian after today's win at Missouri
Nov 5 · Media availability (Texas Athletics) Hear from Head Coach Steve Sarkisian ahead ot his weekend's matchup against Missouri
Nov 2 · Press conference (Texas Athletics) Hear from Head Coach Steve Sarkisian as he recaps this past weekend's win and looks ahead to Missouri
Nov 1 · Postgame press conference (Texas Athletics) Steve Sarkisian addresses the media following Texas' 31-3 win over Mississippi State.

The Players

No player interviews found this week.

Player interviews are posted on the official channel, youtube.com/@TexasLonghorns.

Checked Nov 9. Video is linked from the official Texas Athletics site, with no transcripts. When the school posts no player session, beat coverage from Burnt Orange Nation is linked instead, with no quote text.

What the Data Says

Two sets of numbers: the full 2025 season, and 2026 through eight games for each team. The SP+ rows are as the data service published them on Monday, Nov 2. Definitions for every metric live in the Data Dictionary.

Two sets of numbers: all of last season, and the eight games so far this year for each team. The ratings rows are as the data service published them on Monday. Every number is defined in the Data Dictionary.

Schedule-adjusted view (SP+)	Texas	Missouri
SP+ overall, 2025 (rank)	+16.2 (No. 17)	+14.4 (No. 21)
SP+ overall, 2026 (rank)	+20.4 (No. 8)	+14.2 (No. 18)
SP+ offense, 2026	+34.6	+30.9
SP+ defense, 2026 (lower is better)	+14.5	+16.5
Off. success rate, 2026 (pctl)	41.8% (43rd)	41.3% (42nd)
Off. explosiveness, 2026 (pctl)	1.21 (37th)	1.31 (70th)
Def. success rate, 2026 (pctl)	33.5% (95th)	35.7% (88th)
Def. points per scoring opportunity, 2026 (pctl)	2.32 (96th)	2.95 (81st)
Third down, 2026 (offense / defense)	39.6% / 33.3%	42.0% / 37.9%
Turnover margin, 2025 / 2026	+14 / −3	−5 / +8
Sacks made / allowed, 2026	26 / 24	19 / 7
Penalty yards a game, 2026	62.8	65.2
2025 record	10-3	8-5
2026 results	59-7 Texas State, 24-23 Ohio State, 30-6 UTSA, 20-17 at Tennessee, 24-27 Oklahoma (Dallas), 24-27 Florida, 34-27 Ole Miss, 31-3 Mississippi State	54-14 Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 38-21 at Kansas, 27-17 Troy, 24-31 at Mississippi State, 45-17 Florida, 27-6 Texas A&M, 3-31 at Ole Miss, 34-10 at Arkansas

What the table says: Texas's offense rates 3.7 points better than Missouri's in SP+ and its defense 2.0 better, which is the model's number: the Texas offense plus the Missouri defense adds to 51.1, the Missouri offense plus the Texas defense to 45.4, and 2.5 for Missouri's home field makes it Texas by 3.2. The rows underneath are two good defenses (95th and 88th at stopping plays) and two offenses that move it in different ways: Missouri on big plays (70th in explosiveness) and Texas on finishing (87th in points per scoring chance). The two rows that argue are the sacks, 24 allowed by Texas to 7 by Missouri, and the turnovers, Texas minus 3 and Missouri plus 8.

Sources & Method

Data Dictionary, definitions, calculations and rationale for every metric used here.
CollegeFootballData.com: advanced metrics, SP+, player PPA, season stats, rosters, media and the series (snapshots under data/2025/week10 and data/2026/week10: the data leg's Sunday night pull of Nov 1 for both teams, and the all-teams files and SP+ refreshed by a direct read on Monday, Nov 2). The line (DraftKings, the only book the data service carried for this game) and the AP and Coaches polls are from two direct reads of the same service on Monday, Nov 2, because the committed lines and rankings files carried neither; the moneyline is converted with the book's margin removed. Last Saturday's Texas numbers are from the committed Week 9 box and play-by-play.
SI Texas (Oct 31). The five who did not finish; "severity... unknown"; Littleton, Phillips, Wingo, Cooper. SI Texas (Nov 1). Smothers and Littleton, per Orangebloods. SI Texas (Oct 31). Coleman; Goosby for the season. SI Texas (Nov 1). Biles; the AP poll.
Burnt Orange Nation (Nov 1). Coleman in street clothes; Simmons; "a bloody hand"; "midweek." Burnt Orange Nation (Nov 1). The run game. Burnt Orange Nation (Nov 1). Manning's clock. Burnt Orange Nation (Nov 1). No. 10 and No. 11. Burnt Orange Nation (Nov 1). The FanDuel number. Burnt Orange Nation (Oct 30). The last SEC report: Simmons, Goosby, Wesley out; Lockett off.
SI Missouri (Nov 1). Roberts, Hardy. SI Missouri (Nov 1). Drinkwitz on the penalties and on Hardy. SI Missouri (Nov 1). No. 19; Simmons; the schedule; the 11 AM kick.
Kickoff and network: CFBD games and media snapshots (17:00 UTC, ESPN, isStartTimeTBD false), and SI Missouri (Nov 1) has 11 AM. Series count from the committed CFBD matchup file (17-4).
Base rates: computed from the committed backtest snapshots (data/backtest, 2023 to 2025, weeks 1 to 5, every game with a line, the books' mean spread), the way the gate recomputes them.
The sweep ran as one subagent and returned dated, quoted, cited findings; every quote on this page is from a page it opened. Not opened: Sarkisian's and Drinkwitz's Monday sessions (not yet posted), Texas Athletics' official recap (the site refused the request), the Orangebloods report itself (off our reading list; quoted through SI Texas), Missouri's own site. Everything on this page is dated Saturday, Oct 31, or later, the last game day for both teams, except last season's numbers and the series.

Our call follows the betting line, and our computer model is printed beside it for comparison, because the line has been the better guide this season. This week the two agree within a quarter point, and the call stays with the line. Only one book's line was in the data service for this game, so it is the consensus. Missouri's gold cannot be told from burnt orange on the dark page and its black is not a chart color, so Missouri appears here in the site's fallback blue, rung 4 of our clash ladder, validated against burnt orange in both modes, with the team named on every label. Not betting advice. Every claim on this page is graded Sunday, misses first.