We called the winner by four touchdowns and got it by three and a half, and the game was the shape the page described, minus the points. Biles intercepted McCown on the first snap, Manning hit Coleman from 24 four plays later, and UTSA finished with 142 yards, a longest play of 13 and 1 of 11 on third down. The offense did not hold up its half: 4.9 an attempt, a sack and five hurries, 0 for 2 on fourth down, eight penalties. The market's 30.5 did not cover; the model's 44–19 was off by one. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
Before the game we wrote down Texas 44, UTSA 14, and the game gave us Texas 30, UTSA 6, so we had the right winner and were six points high on each side. Texas picked off UTSA's first pass and scored four plays later, and UTSA never had a play longer than 13 yards all night. The Texas offense was the problem: under five yards a throw, a quarterback running to escape pressure, two failed fourth downs, eight penalties. The betting line said Texas by 30.5, so the people who bet on Texas lost. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Seven of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, three PARTLY, two WRONG: the Texas deep game (nothing longer than 24, wrong for the second week) and Even on McCown against Texas coverage (70 yards, an interception on the first snap; wrong in Texas's favor). The three PARTLY chips were Evens that undersold Texas. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 7 right, 3 half right, and 2 WRONG: we said Texas would win the long-pass matchup and it did not, and we called UTSA's passing a toss-up when Texas shut it down. The three half-right calls were toss-ups that Texas won clearly.
The upset math held: favorites of 29.5 or more were 274-1 since 2023 with a median winning margin of 39. Make it 275-1, and Texas came in 15 under the median.
Why nobody was surprised by the winner: teams favored by this much had won 274 games and lost one. Now it is 275 and one. Texas just won by less than usual.
Margin: Texas by 24 · Line was Texas −30.5, and Texas did not cover
Settled: Derrek Cooper returned and scored (11 carries, 44 yards). Nick Townsend did not play, as Sarkisian said Thursday. Manning left with 11:25 to play after an incompletion, the game in hand; Karle Lacey Jr. finished. Justus Terry's status stays with Monday's report.