The money downs, both ways, in full: the pass ladder for each offense against the pass defense it meets, protection against havoc, the short-yardage and blitz wrinkles, and the bodies who decide them. Texas converts 56% on third down, best of the teams we cover, into a Tennessee defense with 12 sacks; Tennessee's freshman has not thrown an interception. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them.
Third down is the play where you either get the yards or, most of the time, punt. Today we look at how well each team throws when it has to, how well each defense stops it, who blocks and who rushes, and the short-yardage tricks both teams keep in the bag. Texas keeps drives alive on third down better than any team we follow, and it meets a Tennessee defense that has tackled the quarterback behind the line 12 times; Tennessee's freshman quarterback has yet to throw an interception. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them.
Read it top to bottom: whether Texas's throws work at all (efficiency, then value per throw), whether they work when everyone knows a throw is coming (the money downs, second and third and long), whether the line keeps Gilliam and Dye off Manning (protection against havoc, all plays), and whether anything goes over the top (big-pass danger). The shape of the ladder is the shape of the week. Texas's passing game grades average or below on four of six rungs, and the one it wins outright is the money downs: 80th percentile at success when it must throw, which is why 27 of 48 third downs have converted, 56%, even with Manning at 6.8 an attempt and nothing longer than 24 yards in two weeks. Tennessee's coverage numbers are the best on either ladder, 99th at value allowed and 98th at big-pass danger, and they came against Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State, which is the discount Monday's page put on every Tennessee bar. The rung that is not discounted is protection: Texas allows havoc at the 41st percentile, front-seven havoc at the 14th, against a Tennessee front at the 83rd with 12 sacks in three games. Against UTSA, per KETK, Texas was 7 of 17 on third down and 0 for 2 on fourth, its worst money-down day of the season. Monday's chips stand: Even at quarterback, Even on the deep ball, Tennessee in the pocket.
Read it top to bottom: whether Texas's passes work at all, whether they work on the downs where everyone knows a pass is coming, whether the blockers keep Tennessee's two best pass rushers away from Arch Manning, and whether Texas ever completes a long one. The shape of the ladder is the shape of the week. Texas's passing game is average or worse on four of the six rows, and the one it wins clearly is the must-pass downs, where it is better than 80 of 100 teams; that is why Texas has converted 27 of 48 third downs, 56%, even though Manning averages only 6.8 yards a throw and has not completed anything longer than 24 yards in two weeks. Tennessee's pass defense has the best numbers on either ladder, but they came against three weaker teams, which is the warning Monday's page put on every Tennessee number. The row that needs no warning is the blocking: Texas's line is below average at keeping rushers out, near the bottom of the country against defensive linemen and linebackers, and Tennessee's front gets into the backfield better than 83 of 100 teams, with 12 sacks in three games. Against UTSA, as KETK reported, Texas converted 7 of 17 third downs and failed both fourth downs, its worst day of the year on those plays. Monday's picks stand: a toss-up at quarterback, a toss-up on the long ball, Tennessee on the pass rush.
The mirror image, and the freshman's ladder. Faizon Brandon is 41 of 64 for 552 at 8.6 an attempt with six touchdowns and no interceptions, and Tennessee grades above average on every offensive rung but the deep ball: 67th percentile at value per throw, 76th at money-down success, 78th at protection, 33rd at big-pass danger, which is a run-first offense that throws on schedule and rarely over the top. Texas's coverage is the odd shape on this page: 77th at efficiency allowed and 41st at big-pass danger allowed (Jeremiah Smith's two 43-yarders are still in the sample), but 19th percentile at money-down value allowed, the one rung where the Ohio State and UTSA games disagree about this defense. The rush is a coin flip on paper, Texas havoc at the 75th against Tennessee protection at the 78th on all plays (75 against 69 on the front-seven measure), three sacks allowed all year, and the sack column says Texas has five with two of them Simmons's; Simmons left Saturday in a boot, and the Texas beat expects him to play, likely listed probable. Monday's chips stand: Even on Brandon against the coverage, Even in the pocket, Texas slight over the top.
The same ladder the other way, and the freshman's. Faizon Brandon has completed 41 of 64 passes for 552 yards, 8.6 a throw, with six touchdowns and no interceptions, and Tennessee is above average on every offensive row except the long ball: it throws well when it must, blocks well, and rarely goes deep, which is what a run-first offense looks like on paper. Texas's pass defense is the odd shape on this page: good at stopping passes overall, average against the long ball (Ohio State's two 43-yard catches are still in the numbers), but near the bottom of the country at what it gives up per play on the must-pass downs, the one row where the Ohio State and UTSA games disagree about this defense. The pass rush is a coin flip on paper: Texas gets into the backfield better than 75 of 100 teams, Tennessee's blockers keep rushers out better than 78 of 100 and have allowed three sacks all year. Texas has five sacks, two of them by Colin Simmons, who left Saturday's game in a walking boot but is expected to play, per the Texas beat. Monday's picks stand: a toss-up on Brandon against the coverage, a toss-up on the rush, a slight Texas edge on the long ball.
Both offenses convert the short ones; Tennessee's front does not stop them. Power success, the share of third- and fourth-and-two-or-less runs that convert, has Texas at 78% (67th percentile) against a Tennessee front that allows 75% (36th); Tennessee converts 83% (79th) against a Texas front that allows 67% (62nd). This is the one rung where Tennessee's defense, so good at everything in the air, is ordinary, and where the run-ladder core Tuesday's missed edition would have carried belongs: Tennessee's front allows line yards at the 10th percentile and second-level yards at the 4th. Texas ran for 4.2 a carry on the season and converted 4 of 7 fourth downs; two of the three it missed were against UTSA.
Both offenses get the short ones, and Tennessee's front does not stop them. On third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, Texas's runs convert 78% of the time, better than 67 of 100 teams, and Tennessee's defense allows 75% on those plays, worse than most; Tennessee converts 83% of its own against a Texas front that is a little better than average at stopping them. This is the one row where Tennessee's defense, so good against the pass, is ordinary, and it is where Tuesday's missed edition on the run game belongs: Tennessee's front has been near the bottom of the country at stopping runs at the line and just past it. Texas averages 4.2 yards a carry this season and has converted 4 of 7 fourth downs; two of the three misses were against UTSA.
Twelve sacks on one side, five on the other, and the boot. Tennessee's front-seven havoc sits at the 80th percentile and Texas's line has allowed front-seven havoc at the 14th (the ladder row uses havoc on all plays, 41 against 83); the sack column reads Tennessee 12, Texas's line 4 allowed. Gilliam (3 sacks, 5.5 for loss, 2 hurries), Dye (3 sacks, 4 for loss) and Norman (2 sacks, 3 for loss) are the names; Manning has taken a sack and four hurries from UTSA's two-sack rush. The other way, Texas's front-seven havoc sits at the 75th percentile against Tennessee protection at the 69th on that same front-seven measure; Texas has five sacks (Simmons 2, Lance Jackson 1, Maraad Watson 1), Cryer leads the hurries with three, and Tennessee has allowed three sacks all season. Tell 3 on Monday's page counts pressures on Manning's first 20 dropbacks; this panel is why the number is five and why it counts hurries.
Twelve sacks on one side, five on the other, and a walking boot. Tennessee's front gets into the backfield better than 80 of 100 teams, and Texas's blockers have been among the worst in the country at keeping defensive linemen and linebackers out; Tennessee has 12 sacks, Texas's line has allowed four. Xavier Gilliam, Mariyon Dye and Jordan Norman have eight of the 12 between them; UTSA, with two sacks all season, got Manning once and hurried him four times. Going the other way, Texas's front gets into the backfield better than 75 of 100 teams against Tennessee blockers who are a little better than that at keeping it out and have allowed three sacks all year. Texas has five sacks, two by Colin Simmons, and Justin Cryer leads the team with three hurries. Monday's third tell counts how often Manning is rushed on his first 20 throws; this box is why the number to watch is five and why it counts hurries.
Texas: Arch Manning, QB (60 of 97 for 664, 6.8 an attempt, seven touchdowns, two interceptions; 17 of 33 for 164 against UTSA; at Monday's session Sarkisian said he wants him "to be smarter when he runs," per KETK); Ryan Wingo, WR (13 catches, 165, two scores, the volume target); Cam Coleman, WR (10 for 164 and four touchdowns, the red-zone target); Emmett Mosley V, WR (11 for 130); Emaree Winston, TE (five catches with Nick Townsend out); Hollywood Smothers, RB (nine catches as the outlet). The rush: Colin Simmons, EDGE (two sacks, 3.5 for loss, a boot after halftime Saturday), Hero Kanu, DL (2.5 for loss, two hurries), Justin Cryer, LB (three hurries), Lance Jackson, EDGE and Maraad Watson, DL (a sack each); in coverage, Rasheem Biles, LB (two interceptions), Graceson Littleton, DB (an interception, two breakups), Derek Williams Jr., DB (two breakups), and Kobe Black, DB, probable after sitting UTSA. Tennessee: Faizon Brandon, QB (41 of 64 for 552, 8.6 an attempt, six touchdowns, no interceptions, in his first SEC start); Mike Matthews, WR (10 for 189, two scores, the deep target); Radarious Jackson, WR (8 for 113); Braylon Staley, WR (7 for 87, two scores); DaSaahn Brame, TE, with Ethan Davis out for the year. The rush: Xavier Gilliam, DL (three sacks, 5.5 for loss), Mariyon Dye, DL (three sacks, four for loss), Jordan Norman, DL (two sacks, three for loss); the linebackers Arion Carter (a sack, 16 tackles) and Jeremiah Telander (a sack, an interception, two breakups); in coverage, Dejuan Lane, DB (an interception, two breakups), Amare Campbell, LB (17 tackles, two breakups), and Edwin Spillman, LB (a sack, two breakups).
Texas: quarterback Arch Manning, who has completed 60 of 97 passes for 664 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, was 17 of 33 for 164 against UTSA, and on Monday his coach said he wants him "to be smarter when he runs," as KETK reported. His receivers: Ryan Wingo, the one he throws to most (13 catches, 165 yards), Cam Coleman, the one he finds near the goal line (four touchdowns), Emmett Mosley V and tight end Emaree Winston, and running back Hollywood Smothers as the safety valve. The pass rushers: Colin Simmons, with two sacks and a walking boot, Hero Kanu, Lance Jackson and Maraad Watson, and Justin Cryer with three hurries. The pass defenders: Rasheem Biles with two interceptions, Graceson Littleton with one, Derek Williams Jr., and Kobe Black, expected back after sitting out last week. Tennessee: quarterback Faizon Brandon, the freshman (41 of 64 for 552 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions), his top receiver Mike Matthews (189 yards, two touchdowns), Radarious Jackson and Braylon Staley, and tight end DaSaahn Brame with Ethan Davis out for the year. The pass rushers: Xavier Gilliam, Mariyon Dye and Jordan Norman, eight sacks between them, and linebackers Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander with one each. The pass defenders: Dejuan Lane and Telander with an interception apiece, Amare Campbell, and Edwin Spillman.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. Texas's passing game underperforms its SP+ offense (38.7) on value and on the deep ball and overperforms it on the money downs, which is the whole Manning season in one line: no big plays, drives that keep going anyway. Tennessee's pass defense overperforms its SP+ defense (21.1, the weaker of the two) on every rung, against a schedule that has not tested it. Tennessee's passing attack outperforms its rating on schedule and underperforms it over the top; Texas's pass defense underperforms its rating on exactly one rung, the money downs, and that rung is where a freshman's first SEC start usually breaks. The one structural mismatch the game tests first is the pocket: five pressures on Manning's first 20 dropbacks, tell 3, means Tennessee's rush is the story and the money-down rung Texas actually wins never gets its chance; two or fewer, and 56% on third down travels to Knoxville. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Even at quarterback, Tennessee in the pocket, Even on the Texas deep ball, Even on Brandon against the coverage, Even in Tennessee's pocket, Texas slight over the top. The call stays Texas 30, Tennessee 26.
Our bottom line for today. Texas's passing game is worse than its overall numbers say on value and on the long ball, and better than they say on the must-pass downs, which is Manning's season in one line: no big plays, but the drives keep going. Tennessee's pass defense is better than its overall numbers say on every row, against three teams that did not test it. Tennessee's passing game is better than expected on schedule and worse over the top; Texas's pass defense is worse than expected on exactly one row, the must-pass downs, and that is where a freshman's first big conference game usually goes wrong. The one matchup the game will answer first is the blocking: if Manning is rushed on five of his first 20 throws, Tennessee's pass rush is the story and the one row Texas wins never matters; if he is rushed on two or fewer, Texas's third-down habit travels to Knoxville. Monday's picks do not change: toss-ups at quarterback, on the long ball, on Brandon against the coverage and on Tennessee's blocking; Tennessee on the pass rush; a slight Texas edge against the long ball. The score we picked stays Texas 30, Tennessee 26.
Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week4: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, the percentiles computed against them; season and player stats for both teams; positions from the committed rosters), KETK (Texas 7 of 17 on third down and 0 for 2 on fourth against UTSA; Sarkisian on Manning's running), the Week 3 recap (Manning's UTSA line) and the committed Week 3 box (a sack and four hurries on Manning; the recap's prose says five and carries a note). Definitions in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's first availability report is Wednesday evening; Friday's Walkthrough reads it.