Texas by a point and a half is a coin flip with a home crowd attached, and the board says the flip lands on one question: whether Ohio State's rebuilt defense is still the unit that held Texas to 7 and 14 points in the last two meetings. The best offense on the field is Ohio State's; the deeper roster and the pass rusher are Texas's. Our own model leans Ohio State by two, printed so it can be graded; the call stays with the market.
We think Texas wins a very close game, 26 to 24, but this is close to a coin flip. Ohio State has the better offense. Texas has more good players and the best pass rusher on the field. The big question is Ohio State's defense: it stopped Texas cold twice in the last two years, but eight of its starters left for the NFL. Our computer model actually leans Ohio State by two points; we are printing that so we can grade it too.
The upset math: there is no upset here. Favorites of 1 to 3 points went 111-115 straight up since 2023, and home favorites in that band went 60-66; the line is the market shrugging. Ohio State wins it the way it won the last two: hold Texas to field goals and let Sayin's efficiency do the rest.
Why it is a coin flip: since 2023, teams favored by 1 to 3 points have won 111 games and lost 115. Ohio State wins this the same way it won the last two: keep Texas out of the end zone and let its quarterback pick up first downs.
Availability: RB Derrek Cooper out (ankle, boot); LT Trevor Goosby healthy and started the opener; Ohio State DE Qua Russaw expected back after a full week of practice; RT Phillip Daniels benched, not hurt. Checked Sept 10; Friday's pass re-checks.