Mississippi StateatTexas (11)

Three Tells, Measured Early

1. Sacks and hurries on Manning over his first 20 dropbacks. Texas's protection allows havoc on 18.3% of plays, the 7th percentile, and has given up 19 sacks in seven games, two to Ole Miss, one of them Blake Purchase's strip past Andre Cojoe that Ole Miss recovered in the end zone (Burnt Orange Nation); Cojoe, who finished Saturday there, is the likely left tackle, and Jordan Coleman, OL, is the other name (SI Texas). The Bulldog front seven creates havoc at the 30th percentile with 16 sacks, and only one against Oklahoma (Jaray Bledsoe leads with 2.5; Will Whitson, Tyler Lockhart and Marcus Williams have two each). Two or fewer in 20 says the line without Goosby is fine against an ordinary rush and 36 is there; five or more says Mississippi State's big chip is the game, and 36 is too many.The first sign is how often Mississippi State gets to Arch Manning on his first 20 passing plays, counting sacks and hurries together. Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost any line in the country and have allowed 19 sacks in seven games; Ole Miss's touchdown on a fumble came when Blake Purchase ran past Andre Cojoe, who replaced Trevor Goosby and is the likely left tackle now. Mississippi State's defense gets into the backfield less than most and had one sack against Oklahoma. Two or fewer in 20 says the Texas line without Goosby can handle an ordinary pass rush and 36 points is there; five or more says the blocking is the story of the night, and 36 points is too many.
2. Texas's first 15 carries by a running back. Texas rushing value sits at the 19th percentile and its line yards at the 14th, but against Ole Miss the backs ran 31 times for 198, Brown 23 for 157, his first 100-yard game this season, Michael Terry III 8 for 41; Sarkisian: "you need to get the number of carries to make that happen" (SI Texas). The Bulldog front stuffs 14.6% of runs, the 12th percentile, allows 3.14 line yards (23rd) and 3.7 a carry, but its second level is at the 89th. Five yards a carry or better over 15 says Saturday was the line finding itself and Texas can stay out of passing downs, which is the best protection Cojoe can have; under 3.5 says Saturday was the exception and the first tell gets worse by the series.The second sign is how Texas's running backs do on their first 15 carries. Texas's running game has been in the bottom fifth of the country this season, but against Ole Miss its backs ran 31 times for 198 yards, Raleek Brown 157 of them, his first 100-yard game this year; Sarkisian said afterward that to run like that, "you need to get the number of carries to make that happen." Mississippi State's front rarely stops runs at the line, though its linebackers clean up well. Five yards a carry or better over 15 says last Saturday was real and Texas can avoid obvious passing downs, which protects its new left tackle; under 3.5 says last Saturday was the exception, and the first sign gets worse every series.
3. Mississippi State's first 10 third downs. The Bulldogs convert 41.6% (37 of 89) on the season, but they were 1 of 11 against Oklahoma with Taylor out before halftime; Texas allows 33.3% (35 of 105) and success on 34.4% of plays, the 94th percentile, and held Ole Miss to 6 of 18. Three or fewer of 10 says the Texas defense without Simmons is still the best unit on the field and 15 points is plenty for the Bulldog side; five or more says whoever is at quarterback can extend drives, and 15 is not enough.The third sign is how many of Mississippi State's first 10 third downs it converts. Mississippi State converts about four in ten on the season, but it converted 1 of 11 against Oklahoma after its starting quarterback left; Texas's defense allows about one in three and is among the best in the country at stopping plays, and it held Ole Miss to 6 of 18. Three or fewer of 10 says the Texas defense is still itself without Simmons and 15 points is plenty for Mississippi State's side; five or more says whoever plays quarterback can keep drives going, and 15 points is not enough.

Edges at a Glance

The upset math: since 2023, favorites of 20.5 to 21.5 points in the first five weeks are 63-3 straight up, and the median margin across all 66 of those games is 18; the 52 played by a home favorite went 50-2. The winner is close to safe; the margin is not: 25 of the 66 won by more than 21. Mississippi State's path: Taylor healthy, the rush against a Texas protection without Goosby, and the turnovers Texas has been giving away.

How sure we are: since 2023, teams favored by about 21 points in the first five weeks of a season have won 63 games and lost 3, and the typical margin is 18; the ones playing at home won 50 and lost 2. So we are close to sure about the winner and much less sure about the margin: only about two in five of those favorites won by more than 21. Mississippi State's path: its starting quarterback plays, its pass rush gets past Texas's new left tackle, and Texas keeps giving the ball away.

Our record so far: on the final score, 2 right, 8 partly, 3 wrong; on tells, 19 right, 17 partly, 3 wrong; on matchup edges, 64 right, 44 partly, 47 wrong. Tells are the shakiest thing we print, so read them as things to watch, not verdicts.

Line: Texas −21 at DraftKings and Bovada (Monday; DraftKings opened −20.5, Bovada −21) · over/under 50.5 at DraftKings, 51.5 at Bovada (both opened 50.5) · Series: Texas leads 4–2 in our data service's count; Texas has won the last three; last meeting Texas 45, Mississippi State 38 in overtime (2025, Starkville)

Availability

No SEC report yet this week (the conference posts Wednesday to Friday); these are the coaches' and the beat's words since Saturday, and "our read" marks our own reading, not an official designation. Texas: OL Trevor Goosby out for the season (knee, injured against Ole Miss, per Pete Thamel as relayed by Burnt Orange Nation and SI); WR Cam Coleman doubtful, our read (left shoulder, did not return Saturday; Sarkisian: "neither of them look very good"); EDGE Colin Simmons out (ankle, reportedly multiple weeks); RB Hollywood Smothers out; RB Derrek Cooper questionable, our read ("banged up and sick"; probable on the SEC's Friday report, a handful of snaps); OL Andre Cojoe finished Saturday at left tackle and is the likely starter, with OL Jordan Coleman the other name (SI Texas); DB Kobe Black, a game-time decision Saturday, dressed and did not play; QB Arch Manning the starter. Mississippi State: QB Kamario Taylor questionable, our read (right foot re-aggravated against Oklahoma; Lebby: "we'll know more Monday"); QBs Parker Puckett and AJ Swann competing to start if he cannot. Rechecked on game day.

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