The Saturday DispatchTexas · Week 5 · The Bye Week Report
Texas · Week 5 · 2026 Season Bye Week Report · Thu, Oct 1

Texas at the Break

4–0, 1–0 SEC · AP No. 1 with 62 first-place votes · SP+ No. 7 (+22.4), the defense No. 5 · no game Saturday, Oct 3 · next: Oklahoma, Sat, Oct 10, 2:30 PM CT, ABC, Cotton Bowl, Dallas
Four games: 59–7 Texas State · 24–23 Ohio State · 30–6 UTSA · 20–17 at Tennessee Points: 133 for, 53 against Turnover margin: +1 Built Thu, Oct 1, 2026 from the Sept 28 data pull

The Bottom Line

Texas is 4–0 and ahead of every number we printed in August, and it got there with a defense we called Rebuilt and an offense we called a Strength, which is the reverse of the preseason report. The slate we called the second-hardest in the country has given up its two hardest September dates, Ohio State in Austin and Tennessee in Knoxville, and Texas won both by a combined four points. The preseason schedule math added up to about eight expected wins against a market total of 9.5; the same math run on this week's SP+ says 9.6, with one coin flip left (at LSU) where August had four. The honesty note: the four wins came with about 2.9 wins' worth of play by the postgame win expectancy, the two one-score wins were one-score wins, and the offense's value per play has gone down every week since the opener while the defense's has gone the other way. The defense is for real. The offense has not come along yet, and the schedule gives it eight Saturdays in a row to do so, starting in Dallas.

Texas has won all four games, is ahead of every number we wrote down in August, and did it the opposite way from how we expected: with a defense we said was starting over and an offense we said was the team's strength. The two hardest September games, Ohio State at home and Tennessee on the road, are both won, by a point and by three. Before the season, adding up Texas's chance of winning each game came to about eight wins, while the betting market said 9.5; the same arithmetic run on this week's ratings says 9.6, with only one true toss-up game left (at LSU) where August had four. The honest part: the two close wins were close, and by how the games were actually played Texas earned about 2.9 wins, not four. The offense has done less with each game since the opener while the defense has done more. The defense is real. The offense still has to catch up, and it has eight straight Saturdays to do it, starting in Dallas.

4–0The record
9.6Expected wins now (Aug: ~8 · market 9.5)
1Coin flips left (Aug: 4)
The words we use

The call was the score we wrote down before each game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed beside the market so you can compare · tells are the three early signs we said to watch each week · edges are the pregame matchup calls, one per pairing · chips are the preseason one-word reads on each unit, Strength, Lean strength, Open question or Rebuilt · graded means we went back on Sunday and marked each piece right, partly right, or wrong, and the grades live in a ledger anyone can open.

The Claims Scoreboard

The mini-December. Every falsifiable Texas claim the Dispatch printed in four game weeks, graded on the Sunday after each game and recorded in the season ledger (data/2026/season_ledger.csv), added up: the score calls, the tells, the matchup-board edges. The model-against-market rows come from predictions.csv, where each week's model score, closing line and final are logged. Storylines and chatter are graded on whether they affected the game or the read, not right or wrong, so they sit in their own row.

This is a smaller version of the December report card. Every Texas prediction we printed in four game weeks was marked right, partly right, or wrong on the Sunday after the game, and here they are added up: the score predictions, the early signs we said to watch, and the matchup calls. The rows comparing our computer with the betting market come from a file where we log each week's numbers before the game. The news items we wrote about are graded on whether they ended up mattering, not on right or wrong, so they get their own row.

30
Right
20
Partly
13
Wrong
4 of 4
Winners called
15 / 6 / 5
Storylines & chatter: mattered / minor / didn't
WeekThe callThe finalThe marketThe modelClaims
1 · Texas StateTexas 45–15Texas 59–7Texas by 31.5, off 20.5Texas by 27.1, off 24.98 / 4 / 2 · call PARTLY
2 · Ohio StateTexas 26–24Texas 24–23Texas by 1.5, off 0.5Ohio State by 2.4, off 3.4, wrong winner8 / 5 / 4 · call RIGHT
3 · UTSATexas 44–14Texas 30–6Texas by 30.5, off 6.5Texas by 25.0, off 1.010 / 4 / 2 · call PARTLY
4 · at TennesseeTexas 30–26Texas 20–17Texas by 4, off 1.0Texas by 2.2, off 0.84 / 7 / 5 · call PARTLY
The call4 winners of 4 · 1 RIGHT, 3 PARTLY · average miss on the margin 7.5 points, median 3.5Right winner, every week
The market4 winners of 4 · average miss 7.1, median 3.8 · closer than the model in Weeks 1 and 22–2 vs the model
The model3 winners of 4 (Ohio State by 2.4 was the miss) · average miss 7.5, median 2.2 · closer than the market in Weeks 3 and 42–2 vs the market
Texas games only. Both teams' ledgers together run 1 right, 5 partly, 1 wrong on the score; 11, 7, 3 on tells; 34, 23, 26 on edges. The one week the market and the model picked different winners, Ohio State, the market was right.

What the 13 wrong claims have in common: six of the 12 wrong edges doubted the Texas defense, one doubted the Texas run blocking against Texas State, and five expected more from Texas than it delivered. We gave Texas State's Beau Sparks a slight edge on the new corners, gave Texas only a slight edge against Sayin's deep ball, called McCown against Texas coverage Even, and in Knoxville gave Tennessee the run game and the run blocking and called its protection Even against a Texas rush that produced ten sacks. Every one of those went Texas's way. The five misses in the other direction were Coleman and Wingo against Ohio State's rebuilt secondary (Even; the secondary won it), the Texas deep game (Even against Ohio State, Texas against UTSA, wrong both weeks), Smothers and Brown against Tennessee's run defense, and special teams at Neyland. The one tell that graded wrong, Simmons against the Ohio State right tackle, was pinned to a quarter, the kind of tell we stopped printing in Week 3. Tells have run 6 right, 5 partly, 1 wrong on the season and 4 right, 2 partly, none wrong since the Week 3 change; every tell since has been a sample.

Our wrong calls follow a pattern: six of the twelve wrong matchup calls doubted the Texas defense, one doubted the Texas run blocking against Texas State, and five expected more from Texas than it delivered. We thought Texas State's best receiver would beat the new Texas cornerbacks, that Ohio State's and UTSA's passing games would hold their own against Texas's coverage, that Tennessee would run the ball well and protect its quarterback. Texas won all of those. Our five misses the other way were expecting Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo to break even against Ohio State's rebuilt secondary (they did not), expecting the Texas deep passing game to win (it did not, two weeks running), expecting the Texas running backs to beat Tennessee, and expecting Texas to win the kicking game at Tennessee. The one early sign that graded fully WRONG was tied to the first quarter of the Ohio State game, a kind of prediction we stopped making in Week 3. The early signs have gone 6 right, 5 partly right, 1 wrong on the season, and 4 right, 2 partly right, none wrong since that change.

Preseason Questions, Regraded

The preseason report put a chip on each unit, Strength, Lean strength, Open question or Rebuilt, beside the unit's 2025 percentile on one headline number. Here is the same number for 2026, computed over four games against all 138 FBS teams from the committed Sept 28 snapshot (data/2026/week5/all__advanced.json, garbage time excluded), and the read we would put on the unit today. The grey bar is the 2025 bar the chip was set against; the orange bar is now. Four games is a sample, not a season, and Texas's four opponents have not been average, so read the direction more than the digit.

Before the season we gave each part of the team a one-word rating (Strength, Lean strength, Open question, or Rebuilt) and printed where that unit ranked among all 138 major-college teams last year, on a 0 to 100 scale where 100 is the best. Here is the same scale for this year's four games, from the data we saved on Sept 28, and what we would say about each unit today. The grey bar is last year's number; the orange bar is now. Four games is a small sample, and Texas's four opponents were not average teams, so trust the direction of each bar more than the exact figure.

QB & passing gameOutlook: StrengthNow: Open question
Pass value
63rdNow
49th

Passing PPA per play has slipped from the 63rd percentile to the 49th; passing success rate has climbed from the 26th to the 57th. Arch Manning (QB) is 74 of 116 for 865 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, 63.8%, 7.5 an attempt. The consistency we said was the growth axis arrived; the value per throw that made the unit a Strength did not. Not graded yet: the chip said Strength, and through four games the unit is average, with the best defense it has faced holding it to 201 yards.

The passing game's value per play dropped from better than 63 of 100 teams to 49; its share of throws that gain enough has climbed from 26 to 57. Quarterback Arch Manning has completed 74 of 116 passes for 865 yards, 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He is more consistent than last year, which is what we hoped for, but the big-value throws that made us call this a strength have not come. Through four games this unit is about average.

Run gameOutlook: Open questionNow: Open question
Rush value
39thNow
24th

Rushing PPA per play: 24th percentile, below the 39th the portal was supposed to fix. Rushing success rate is a respectable 55th, so the carries that work are frequent enough; what is missing is the long one, open-field yards at the 9th percentile. Hollywood Smothers (RB) has 41 carries for 198 (4.8) and 2 touchdowns and sat Tennessee as "an emergency for us"; Raleek Brown (RB) 48 for 196 and 4 touchdowns; Derrek Cooper (RB) 20 for 57 around an ankle injury; Arch Manning, whose legs carried most of the returning rushing value, has 31 carries for 79 and no rushing touchdown. The question stays open and is trending the wrong way: 61 rushing yards on 36 carries at Tennessee, sacks included.

The running game's value per carry ranks 24th of 100, below last year's 39th, which the two transfer running backs were supposed to fix. Texas gets a useful run often enough (55 of 100 on that measure); what it almost never gets is a long one (9 of 100). Hollywood Smothers has 198 yards on 41 carries and sat out Tennessee as an emergency option; Raleek Brown has 196 yards and four touchdowns; Derrek Cooper 57 yards around an ankle injury; Arch Manning, whose running was most of what returned, has 79 yards on 31 carries and no rushing touchdown. Still an open question, and at Tennessee it went the wrong way: 61 rushing yards on 36 carries, counting the sacks.

Receivers & TEOutlook: Lean strengthNow: Open question
Big plays
90thNow
17th

The fall of the season: offensive explosiveness from the 90th percentile to the 17th. Texas has nine completions of 20 or more yards in four games, four of them against Texas State, one each against Ohio State and UTSA. Ryan Wingo (WR) has 19 catches for 239 and 2 touchdowns, Cam Coleman (WR) 11 for 194 and 4, Emmett Mosley V (WR) 12 for 173. The deep-game chip graded WRONG in Weeks 2 and 3 and Even-to-PARTLY in Week 4. The deep speed we said "is still here" has not shown up on the stat sheet, and the chip comes down to Open question.

The biggest fall on the board: last year Texas's successful plays were bigger than 90 of 100 teams'; this year, bigger than 17. Texas has nine completions of 20 or more yards all season, four of them in the opener. Ryan Wingo has 19 catches for 239 yards, Cam Coleman 11 for 194 and four touchdowns, Emmett Mosley V 12 for 173. We predicted the deep passing game would win its matchup and were WRONG two weeks running, then partly right at Tennessee. We said the speed was still here; it has not shown up yet, so this unit drops to an open question.

Offensive lineOutlook: Open questionNow: Open question
Line yds
36thNow
17th

Line yards per carry at the 17th percentile, down from the 36th; havoc allowed at the 20th; ten sacks allowed, six of them at Tennessee. Power success (62nd) is the one rung that holds, which is why Brown's short touchdowns keep landing. Jordan Coleman (OL) joined the injury list the week of Tennessee and stays out with no dated update. "The quiet risk under everything" is no longer quiet; it is the first thing Oklahoma's front will test.

The blocking on running plays ranks 17th of 100 teams, down from 36th, and the line has given up ten sacks, six of them at Tennessee. Short-yardage pushes are the one thing it does well (62 of 100), which is why Raleek Brown's short touchdown runs keep working. Lineman Jordan Coleman went on the injury list before Tennessee and there is no new word on him. We called this line the quiet risk in August; it is not quiet now.

Defensive line & edgeOutlook: Lean strengthNow: Strength
F7 havoc
82ndNow
89th

Front-seven havoc at the 89th percentile, up from the 82nd; 15 sacks in four games, ten of them in Knoxville. Colin Simmons (EDGE) has seven sacks, five of them against Tennessee a week after leaving the UTSA game in a walking boot, in a brace on his left arm, and this week collected national player of the week honors from the Bednarik, Nagurski and Walter Camp awards (their count is 5.5; the box score we grade from says 5). Line yards allowed 75th, stuff rate 67th. The most intact piece of the defense is now its best piece. Strength.

Texas's defensive front wrecks plays more often than 89 of 100 teams, up from 82 last year, with 15 sacks in four games, ten of them at Tennessee. Colin Simmons has seven sacks, five of them against Tennessee a week after leaving the UTSA game in a walking boot, while wearing a brace on his left arm, and this week three national awards named him their player of the week (they count 5.5 sacks; the box score we grade from says 5). We called this the most intact part of the defense; it is now the best part. A strength.

LinebackersOutlook: RebuiltNow: Open question
2nd level
54thNow
43rd

Second-level yards allowed at the 43rd percentile, down from the 54th, against rush success allowed at the 70th. The two numbers disagree only on the surface: runs that reach the linebackers gain about what they did last year (1.02 a carry against 1.04; the percentile fell because the field moved), and fewer runs are successful at all, because the front is eating them first. Rasheem Biles (LB) leads the team with 30 tackles and has two interceptions, Justin Cryer (LB) has 23; the new trio has not been the leak the Rebuilt chip allowed for. Up from Rebuilt to Open question, which is what a rebuilt unit that is holding looks like at four games.

Runs that get past the defensive line gain about what they did last year (43 of 100 teams on that measure, down from 54, because other teams improved), but fewer runs succeed at all (70 of 100), because the front stops them first. Linebacker Rasheem Biles leads the team with 30 tackles and has two interceptions, and Justin Cryer has 23; the new group has not been the weak spot we allowed for. We move it up from Rebuilt to an open question, which is what holding up for four games earns.

SecondaryOutlook: RebuiltNow: Lean strength
DB havoc
69thNow
59th

DB havoc at the 59th percentile, below the 69th that left with the draft picks, but passing success rate allowed is at the 90th and passing PPA allowed at the 84th. The headline rate is about what it was (6.5% against 6.7%); the percentile fell because the field moved. Everything else says the new scheme covers: Ohio State's 278 passing yards is the most anyone has managed, UTSA got 70 and Tennessee 151. Jelani McDonald (DB), the one returning starter, is second on the team with 26 tackles and broke up the last pass at Neyland. Three of our wrong edges doubted this unit. Lean strength, and the regrade we are least sure of, because Ohio State is the only top-ten offense by SP+ it has faced.

The defensive backs wreck plays at about last year's rate (59 of 100 teams on that measure, down from 69 because other teams improved), and opposing passing games succeed against them less often than against 90 of 100 teams. Ohio State's 278 passing yards is the most anyone has managed; UTSA got 70 and Tennessee 151. Jelani McDonald, the one starter back from last year, is second on the team with 26 tackles and knocked away the last pass at Tennessee. Three of our wrong matchup calls doubted this group. We move it up two notches to Lean strength, and it is the regrade we are least sure of, because Ohio State is the only top-ten offense it has faced.

Special teamsOutlook: Open questionNow: Open question
Field pos
85thNow
79th

Starting field position at the 79th percentile, down from the 85th but still good. Gianni Spetic (PK) is 7 of 7 on field goals with a long of 52 and 16 of 16 on extra points, and Mac Chiumento (P) averages 43.9 on 13 punts; the two new specialists have been the answer we hoped for. Ryan Niblett (RB), the carried-forward weapon, has 8 punt returns for 96. Then Neyland: a 57-yard punt return touchdown, the first against Texas since 2013, and an onside kick recovered. The chip was Open question on the specialists and the specialists are fine; the coverage units reopened it.

Texas starts its drives in better spots than 79 of 100 teams, down a little from 85 last year. Kicker Gianni Spetic has made all seven field goals, one from 52 yards, and all 16 extra points, and punter Mac Chiumento averages 43.9 yards on 13 punts, so the new specialists have answered the question we had about them. Ryan Niblett, the returner we counted on, has 8 punt returns for 96 yards. Then at Tennessee the punt coverage gave up a 57-yard return for a touchdown, the first against Texas since 2013, and the kickoff team lost an onside kick. Still an open question, for a different reason.

CoachingOutlook: Rebuilt (defense)Now: Strength (defense)
Def value
n/aNow
80th

No 2025 bar, by design; the 2026 number is defensive PPA per play allowed at the 80th percentile, success rate allowed at the 87th, points per scoring opportunity allowed at the 93rd, and an SP+ defense rating of No. 5. Will Muschamp's first four games are the reason the season reads the way it does. The other half of the chip, Sarkisian's year-six offense, is the half that is now the question: offensive PPA per play at the 30th percentile, and 25 penalties for 250 yards, 11 for 115 at Tennessee, including the sack celebration that drew a flag, one of two celebrations Sarkisian called "unacceptable" on Monday.

We gave the coaching no number last year on purpose; this year the defense allows less value per play than 80 of 100 teams, stops drives before they score better than 93 of 100, and rates fifth in the country. Will Muschamp's first four games as the defensive coordinator are the reason the season looks the way it does. The half we did not question, Steve Sarkisian's sixth-year offense, is the half that is now in question: its value per play ranks 30th of 100, and the team has 25 penalties for 250 yards, 11 of them at Tennessee, including a flagged celebration after a sack, one of two celebrations Sarkisian called "unacceptable" on Monday.

Percentiles computed by tools/build_metrics.py's method over the committed snapshot: the share of FBS teams the value beats, direction-aware. The 2025 bars are as the preseason page printed them. Positions are from the committed Sept 22 roster (data/2026/week4/roster_texas.json), which lists Simmons and Lance Jackson at EDGE.

Grade me in December, at the halfway mark of September

ClaimHow it gets gradedWhere it standsRead
7–9 wins (SP+ reference) vs 9.5 marketFinal regular-season record vs both numbers.4–0 banked where the preseason math expected 2.8 wins; the gauntlet below adds 5.6 more for 9.6. On course to clear both numbers.Pending, above both
Unit outlook chipsEach unit's end-of-2026 percentile vs its 2025 bar.By the chips, four units up (defensive front, linebackers, secondary, coaching), two down (passing game, receivers), three held (run game, offensive line, special teams). By the 2025 bars, only the defensive front is above its bar. The board above.Partly, so far
The portal fixed the run game2026 rushing PPA percentile vs the 2025 39th.24th through four games. Smothers 4.8 a carry when he plays; the long run has not come; 61 yards at Tennessee.Trending wrong
Breakouts: Lockett, Winston, JacksonUsage up meaningfully AND per-play value held, both required.Kaliq Lockett (WR): 1 catch for minus 3. Emaree Winston (TE): 6 catches for 70, up from 2 all of 2025, value positive (0.39 a play); the TE job opened when Nick Townsend's knee did. Lance Jackson (EDGE): 7 tackles, 1 sack, a rotation role.One of three
Turnover regression ≈ one win of drag2026 TO margin (expect near zero) and whether the record undershoots.+1 through four games (2025 finished +14). The margin came back to earth as written; the record has not paid for it yet, because the two one-score games went Texas's way.Margin: right · record: not yet

Season to Date: The Data

The form chart

Four games: the margin, then each side's value per play from the committed postgame files
Texas offense, value per playOpponent offense against the Texas defense (lower is better for Texas)

The offense's PPA per play has fallen every game: +0.46 against Texas State, +0.17 against Ohio State, −0.06 against UTSA, −0.16 at Tennessee. The defense's allowed PPA has gone the other way: +0.14, +0.15, −0.17, −0.17. These are the raw single-game values from the postgame snapshots (data/2026/week<N>/postgame/ppa.json), not opponent-adjusted; Ohio State and Tennessee are better than Texas State and UTSA, so some of the offense's slide is the schedule. Not all of it: the UTSA game is the third point, and the line does not bend there.

The offense has produced less with each game: well above average in the opener, a little above against Ohio State, a little below against UTSA, and its worst at Tennessee. The defense has gone the other way: ordinary in the first two games, excellent in the last two. These are the plain game-by-game numbers, not adjusted for who Texas played, and Ohio State and Tennessee are much better than Texas State and UTSA, so part of the offense's slide is the schedule. Not all of it: UTSA is the third game, and the line keeps falling there.

Efficiency, four games in

OffenseTexasvs all FBS
Value per play+0.08130th
Success rate44.9%59th
Explosiveness1.1317th
Points per scoring chance4.2561st
Third downs30 of 60 (50.0%)
Sacks allowed10
Yards · penalties1,514 · 25 for 250 yds
DefenseTexas allowsvs all FBS
Value per play allowed−0.04480th
Success rate allowed34.4%87th
Explosiveness allowed1.1279th
Points per scoring chance allowed2.1993rd
Third downs allowed19 of 55 (34.5%)
Sacks made15
Yards allowed1,084

Percentiles against all 138 FBS teams in the Sept 28 snapshot, garbage time excluded, direction-aware (a low number allowed is a high percentile). Counting stats are summed from the four committed box scores. SP+ after four weeks: Texas +22.4, No. 7; offense No. 16 (+35.7), defense No. 5 (13.6 allowed).

The "vs all FBS" column is where Texas ranks among all 138 major-college teams on a 0 to 100 scale, 100 being best, so a defense that allows little scores high. The counts are added up from the four official box scores. The rating system we use has Texas seventh in the country, with the 16th-best offense and the fifth-best defense.

The turnover watch, first real read

GameTexas gave awayTexas took awayMarginRunning
Texas State1 (an interception)3 (two fumbles, an interception)+2+2
Ohio State2 (a fumble, an interception)1 (an interception)−1+1
UTSA01 (an interception)+1+2
at Tennessee1 (an interception)0−1+1

Texas's +1 is a fumble margin of +1 and an interception margin of zero, three thrown and three taken. The preseason page said 2025's +14 was about one win of flattery on the record and that 2026's margin should sit near zero; through four games it does. The discount has not reached the record because the two one-score games both broke Texas's way, which is the other kind of luck: against Ohio State, Texas scored on three fourth-quarter drives and Ohio State missed a 45-yard field goal; at Tennessee, the last pass was broken up at the goal line. By the postgame win expectancy in the committed game files (94%, 30%, 78%, 86%), four games of this play are worth about 2.9 wins. That is not a forecast of losses; it is the size of the cushion the record is sitting on.

Texas has taken the ball away once more than it has given it away: one more fumble recovered than lost, and interceptions even at three each. Before the season we said last year's +14 was worth about one extra win in the record and would not repeat; four games in, it has not. The record has not paid for that yet, because both close games went Texas's way, which is its own kind of good fortune: Texas came from behind with three fourth-quarter scoring drives against Ohio State, which missed a 45-yard field goal, and knocked away Tennessee's last pass at the goal line. Judged by how each game was actually played, this four-game stretch was worth about 2.9 wins, not four. That is not a prediction of losses; it is how much slack is in the record.

The Remaining Gauntlet

Eight games, eight straight Saturdays, no second bye. The win probabilities below use the preseason page's method with this week's numbers: the SP+ ratings gap from the Sept 28 pull (data/2026/week5/all__sp_ratings.json, in-season ratings after four weeks, not the August projections), plus 2.5 points for the home team and nothing at the Cotton Bowl, converted to a win chance by how far our model's projections have historically missed (the Data Dictionary has the curve). The grey column is what the preseason page printed for the same game. Shaded rows are coin flips, 40 to 60 percent. Treat them as a shape, not picks.

Eight games in eight straight weeks, with no more weeks off. For each game we take the gap between the two teams' current ratings, add 2.5 points for the home team (nothing for the Oklahoma game, which is on a neutral field in Dallas), and turn that into a chance of winning using how far off our predictions have been in the past. The grey column is the chance we printed in August for the same game. Shaded rows are true toss-ups, between 40 and 60 percent. These describe the shape of the schedule; they are not picks.

WkDateOpponent (SP+ rank now)SiteSP+ marginWin chance nowIn August
9.6–2.4Expected final record (4 wins + 5.6)
5.6Expected wins, 8 games left (Aug: 5.35)
47%at LSU, the one coin flip

So what: the expected final record is 9.6–2.4, four wins in hand plus 5.6 from the eight left, against the 8.1 the preseason page's own table added up to and the market's August total of 9.5. Three games moved most. Oklahoma went from a 59% coin flip to 71%, because the Sooners' rating fell from 11th to 27th at 2–2. Texas A&M went from 49% to 73%, from 9th to 39th after two losses by 39 combined points. Mississippi State went the other way, from an 88% walkover to 71%, up from 52nd to 18th. LSU at Tiger Stadium is the lone coin flip left, 47%; Florida in Austin and the trip to Missouri (64% each) are the next-closest things to one. The honesty note still applies: the backtest says this model loses to the market on margins, so the market's number is the anchor when one exists. For Oklahoma it does: FanDuel posted Texas by 9.5 as a look-ahead line on Tuesday, Sept 29, almost exactly the 9.6 the ratings say; the Dispatch's own committed line for the game arrives with the Sunday night pull, and the preseason futures (a 9.5 win total, +650 for the title) are the last dated prices on record.

So what: adding up the chances, Texas should finish about 9.6 wins and 2.4 losses, the four it has plus 5.6 more from the eight games left. In August the same arithmetic said about 8, and the betting market said 9.5. Three games changed the most. Oklahoma went from a toss-up (59%) to 71%, because the Sooners are 2–2 and their rating has fallen from 11th to 27th. Texas A&M went from 49% to 73% after two losses by 39 points combined. Mississippi State went the other way, from 88% to 71%, after a strong start. The trip to LSU is the only true toss-up left, at 47%; Florida at home and the trip to Missouri (64% each) are the next-closest. One caution: over the years the betting market has been better at this than our computer, so when a line exists we lean on it. For Oklahoma one does: on Tuesday, Sept 29, FanDuel's early line had Texas favored by 9.5 points, almost exactly what our ratings say. We will save the official line for the game on Sunday night.

Three Tells for October

The revised tells: three things to count in the first two October games (Oklahoma in Dallas, Florida in Austin) that would say whether the offense has come along or the defense is carrying it for the season. Samples, not clocks; none of these is pinned to a quarter.

Three things to count in the first two October games (Oklahoma in Dallas, then Florida at home) that will tell you whether the offense has caught up or the defense is carrying the team. Each one is a count over a set number of plays, not a stretch of the game clock.

  1. Completions of 20 or more yards over Manning's first 25 throws in Dallas. Texas has nine in four games, never more than four, and one each against Ohio State and UTSA. Two or more in the first 25 says the Receivers chip is climbing back off the 17th percentile and the Open question above was the right read; none again says the fall is the offense, not the schedule.How many of Arch Manning's first 25 passes in Dallas go for 20 yards or more. Texas has nine such completions all season, and only one in each of the Ohio State and UTSA games. Two or more in the first 25 says the receivers are getting their big plays back; none says the problem is the offense and not the opponents.
  2. Sacks allowed over Manning's first 25 dropbacks against Oklahoma. Ten allowed this season, six at Neyland. Two or fewer says Knoxville was the Volunteer front and the line's 17th-percentile line yards are a run-blocking problem only; four says protection is the October problem and the Open question on the line is closing the wrong way.How many times Manning is tackled behind the line on his first 25 passing plays against Oklahoma. Texas has given up ten sacks this season, six of them at Tennessee. Two or fewer says Tennessee's pass rush was the exception; four says pass blocking is October's problem.
  3. Oklahoma's and Florida's first 12 third downs apiece. Texas has allowed 19 conversions of 55, 34.5%, and Ohio State is the only top-ten offense by SP+ it has faced. Four or fewer of 12 for each says the 87th-percentile success rate allowed is the defense and not the schedule; six or more for either says the Lean strength on the secondary was a chip too far and the November trips are tighter than 47% and 64% say.How many of Oklahoma's and Florida's first 12 third downs each team converts. Texas's defense has allowed 19 of 55 this season, about one in three, and Ohio State is the only top-ten offense it has faced. Four or fewer of 12 for each says the defense is as good as its numbers; six or more for either says we moved the secondary up too fast and the November road games are tougher than the chances above suggest.

Go Deeper

The two-minute read for the bye sits on the Texas card. Availability as of this report, dated sources only: Hollywood Smothers (RB), lower leg, "I think he'll be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU" (Sarkisian, Monday, Sept 28); Cam Coleman (WR), a bone bruise from landing on the Neyland grass, "nothing serious" (Sarkisian, Sept 28); Colin Simmons (EDGE) played Tennessee in a large brace on his left arm; Nick Townsend (TE, knee) and Justus Terry (DL, toe) were out at Tennessee and Sarkisian did not address them Monday; Xavier Filsaime (DB) has not played this season and Jordan Coleman (OL) was out at Tennessee, no dated word on either since; Cole Hutson (OL) remains eligibility-pending with nothing dated this week. The SEC's next availability report comes the week of the game. Sarkisian after the Tennessee game: "I do think we need to get healthy. We were a little banged up coming out of the game."