The Saturday DispatchTexas · Week 8 · The Scouting Report
Texas · Week 8 · The Scouting Report Game week of Oct 19–24 · published Oct 23

The Scouting Report: Without Colin Simmons, the Texas Defense Meets Trinidad Chambliss, and a Texas Line Near the Bottom of the Country Has to Keep Ole Miss Off Arch Manning

Texas is 4-2 and No. 19 after back-to-back three-point losses, the second of them a 17–3 lead in Austin that became Florida 27, Texas 24 on a strip-sack with 1:58 left. Ole Miss comes in 5-1 and No. 7, fresh off a 31–3 win over Missouri, with an offense SP+ rates sixth in the country and a quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss, at 8.0 an attempt with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. The line has come all the way down: DraftKings opened Texas at −8.5, both books sat at −3.5 Monday, and both were at −3 Friday. The board splits five chips to five with two Even, and the reason it is not more Texas is the SEC's Thursday report: Colin Simmons, 10 of the team's 19 sacks, is out with a high ankle sprain, and Hollywood Smothers is out. The widest gaps on the page run both ways: Texas's coverage against the Rebel deep game, 67 points, and the Rebel front against the Texas line in the run game, 49, with the Ole Miss rush against a Texas protection that allows havoc at the 8th percentile and gave up five sacks to Florida close behind at 41.

Everything we think about this game. Texas is 4-2 and ranked No. 19 after losing two straight games by three points, the second one in Austin after leading Florida 17 to 3, on a fumble while Arch Manning was being sacked with under two minutes left. Ole Miss comes in 5-1 and ranked No. 7 after beating Missouri 31 to 3, with one of the best offenses in the country and a quarterback, Trinidad Chambliss, who averages 8 yards a throw with 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions. The betting line has dropped a long way: one book opened Texas by 8.5, both had Texas by 3.5 on Monday, and both had Texas by 3 on Friday. We split the twelve matchups five to Texas, five to Ole Miss and two toss-ups, and the reason it is not more Texas is the official injury report: Colin Simmons, who has 10 of the team's 19 sacks, is out with a high ankle sprain, and running back Hollywood Smothers is out. The biggest mismatches on the page go both ways: Texas's pass defense against Ole Miss's long passing game, and Ole Miss's front against Texas's run blocking, with Ole Miss's pass rush against Texas blockers who let defenders into the backfield more than almost anyone, and gave up five sacks to Florida, close behind.

Sat, Oct 24 · 6:30 PM CT · ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin · forecast at kickoff 86°, partly cloudy, southeast wind 10 mph, no rain in it (National Weather Service hourly forecast for Austin, updated Saturday 5:32 AM CT) Line (Friday, Oct 23, and unchanged in the data service's Saturday 4:37 AM CT pull): Texas −3 at DraftKings and −3 at Bovada, a consensus of 3 (Monday: −3.5 at both; DraftKings opened −8.5, Bovada −3.5) · over/under 53.5 at DraftKings and 54 at Bovada (Monday: 52.5 at both; opened 54.5 and 52) Series: Texas leads 6-2 in our data service's count · last meeting Ole Miss 44, Texas 23 (2013, Austin) · the one before it Texas 66, Ole Miss 31 (2012, Oxford)
The Call · made Oct 23, on Friday's lines, and left alonegraded Sunday
Texas 28
the call
Ole Miss 25
their side
Texas −3
the betting line, Friday
Texas by 11.2
our computer model

Why this number: The 28–25 call rides the market, frozen on Friday's lines. DraftKings opened Texas at −8.5, sat at −3.5 Monday and −3 Friday; Bovada opened at −3.5, sat there Monday and was at −3 Friday, so the consensus is 3. The totals are 53.5 at DraftKings and 54 at Bovada (52.5 at both on Monday), a consensus of 53.75, so 3 points of margin on 53.75 points of scoring splits to 28.4 and 25.4, and we round down on both. The moneylines work out to about a 58% chance Texas wins at DraftKings and 59% at Bovada, roughly 59% between them, with the books' margin taken out. Our computer model, built on SP+ ratings with 2.5 points for the home field, says Texas 36.6–25.4, Texas by 11.2, eight points more Texas than the line on a total eight points higher; its ratings have Texas at +24.4 (6th) and Ole Miss at +15.9 (16th), and Monday's file carries the same ratings it carried a week earlier, so the model has not absorbed the Florida game, the Missouri game or Simmons's ankle. We print the model so it can be graded, not so anyone should bet it; on margin the market leads it 7 to 5 this season, and straight up the market is 9-3 to the model's 8-4. The history: since 2023, favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points in the first five weeks are 110-86 straight up, and the median margin across all 196 of those games is 3; the 89 played by a home favorite went 52-37. What makes this number wrong in Texas's favor: the Rebel defense allows success on 44.2% of plays (25th percentile) and 44.0% on third down, its secondary has three safeties and a corner out on Thursday's report, and Texas's coverage has allowed four touchdown passes all season. What makes it wrong in Ole Miss's favor: Texas's protection allows havoc at the 8th percentile and gave up five sacks to Florida, Texas has run for 61, 122 and 99 yards in its last three games, and the Texas rush without Simmons is a rush that has nine sacks in six games. And what the tells cannot see, said plainly: a tell measures a matchup over 12 to 20 snaps; it cannot see a punt return, a strip-sack at 1:58 or a star's ankle in the third quarter, and last Saturday in Austin had all three. That risk lives in the chips (Special Teams, Texas, slight; Coaching & Luck, Even) and in the four-in-nine the history gives a 3-point underdog. The tells say whether the game is going the way the board says; the margins say who wins a game this close.

Why we picked this score: The people betting on this game have Texas as a 3-point favorite, and we wrote the score down from Friday's betting lines. One book opened Texas by 8.5, had Texas by 3.5 on Monday and by 3 on Friday; the other opened and sat at 3.5 on Monday and moved to 3 on Friday, so 3 is the number. Those same people expect about 54 points in the game, which splits to Texas 28, Ole Miss 25 after rounding down. The betting odds give Texas about a 58% chance to win at one book and 59% at the other, roughly 59% between them, once the books' built-in margin is taken out. Our own computer says Texas by about 11, Texas 37, Ole Miss 25, eight points more than the betting line; it rates Texas about the 6th-best team in the country and Ole Miss about 16th, but its ratings were not updated after last weekend, so it has not seen the Florida loss, Ole Miss's win over Missouri or Simmons's injury. We print the computer's number so you can see it, but the betting line has been the better guide this season (closer to the final margin six times to five, and right about the winner nine times in eleven to the computer's eight), so the line is what we follow. The history: since 2023, teams favored by about 3 points in the first five weeks of a season have won 110 games and lost 86, and the typical final margin is 3; the ones playing at home won 52 and lost 37. Where this number could be wrong, and how this goes better for Texas: Ole Miss's defense lets opponents stay on schedule more than most, allows 44% of third downs, and has three safeties and a cornerback ruled out, and Texas's pass defense has allowed only four touchdown passes all season. How it goes better for Ole Miss: Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost anyone and gave up five sacks to Florida, Texas has run for about 94 yards a game over its last three, and without Simmons the rest of the Texas pass rush has nine sacks in six games. And what our early signs cannot see, said plainly: an early sign measures one matchup over 12 to 20 plays; it cannot see a punt return, a fumble on a sack with two minutes left or a star player's injury in the third quarter, and last Saturday in Austin had all three. That risk lives in two of our matchup calls (the kicking game, a slight Texas edge; coaching-and-luck, a toss-up) and in the four-in-nine chance the history gives a 3-point underdog of winning. The early signs tell you whether the game is going the way our board says; the kicking game and the bounces decide a game this close.

Game day: Checked Saturday, Oct 24, 5:53 AM CT. The game-day line is the one this call was made on: Texas −3 at both DraftKings and Bovada, over/under 53.5 at DraftKings and 54 at Bovada, identical to Friday night at both books, so the call stands. The forecast is partly cloudy and dry, about 86 at the 6:30 PM kick. Nothing newer than the Friday availability reports below turned up for either team.

On game day: Checked Saturday morning, Oct 24, 5:53 AM CT. The betting line has not moved since Friday night: Texas by 3 at both books we follow, about 54 points expected, which is what this call was built on, so the call stands. The weather is partly cloudy and dry, about 86 degrees at the kick. We found nothing newer than Friday's injury reports for either team.

Three Tells, Measured Early

  1. Sacks and hurries on Manning over his first 20 dropbacks. Texas's protection allows havoc on 18.3% of plays, the 8th percentile, and has given up 17 sacks in six games, five of them to Florida, the last one the strip at 1:58; the Ole Miss front seven creates havoc at the 49th percentile with 11 sacks (Blake Purchase 3.5 with 6.5 tackles for loss, William Echoles and Luke Ferrelli two each). Two or fewer in 20 says the Rebel rush is the ordinary unit its numbers say, Manning gets to let it rip, and 28 points is there; five or more says it is Florida again, the protection chip is the game, and 28 is too many.The first sign is how often Ole Miss gets to Arch Manning on his first 20 passing plays, counting sacks and hurries together. Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost any line in the country and have allowed 17 sacks in six games, five of them to Florida, the last one the fumble with under two minutes left; Ole Miss's defense gets into the backfield about as often as an average team and has 11 sacks, 3.5 of them by Blake Purchase. Two or fewer in 20 says Ole Miss's pass rush is as ordinary as its season says, Manning gets to throw the way he says he wants to, and 28 points is there; five or more says it is the Florida game again, Texas's blocking decides the night, and 28 points is too many.
  2. Texas's first 15 carries by a running back. Texas rushing value sits at the 9th percentile and its line yards at the 14th, it has run for 61, 122 and 99 yards in its last three games, and with Smothers out the carries go to Raleek Brown (61 for 265, five touchdowns, the 32-yard score against Florida) and Derrek Cooper (28 for 98); the Ole Miss front stuffs 24.0% of runs, the 89th percentile, but allows 43.6% rush success (36th) and 4.0 a carry. Four yards a carry or better over 15 says the Ole Miss chips at the line are too big and Texas can stay out of third-and-long; under three says the protection tell gets worse by the series, because every dropback is a passing down.The second sign is how Texas's running backs do on their first 15 carries. Texas's running game has been among the least productive in the country, its blockers in the bottom sixth at opening lanes, and it has averaged about 94 rushing yards over its last three games; with Hollywood Smothers out, the carries go to Raleek Brown, who has five touchdowns including a 32-yarder against Florida, and Derrek Cooper. Ole Miss's front stops runs at the line more than most, but the runs that get past it go for four yards a carry. Four yards a carry or better over 15 says we made Ole Miss's edge at the line too big and Texas can stay out of long third downs; under three says the first sign gets worse every series, because every pass becomes an obvious one.
  3. Ole Miss's first 12 third downs. Ole Miss converts 47.9% (34 of 71), and its passing-downs value sits at the 95th percentile; Texas allows 33.3% (29 of 87) and success on 20.5% of passing downs, but Florida converted 8 of 19 last week, all eight after the break (the committed play-by-play). Sarkisian on Chambliss: "He's going to get out of the pocket." Four or fewer of 12 says the Texas defense is still the Texas defense without its best player; six or more says Chambliss's second play, the scramble that buys a throw, is the game, and 25 points is not enough.The third sign is how many of Ole Miss's first 12 third downs it converts. Ole Miss converts almost half its third downs, and on the downs where it has to throw, its offense has been among the very best in the country; Texas's defense allows about one in three, but Florida converted 8 of 19 last week, all eight of them after the break. Sarkisian on Ole Miss's quarterback: "He's going to get out of the pocket." Four or fewer of 12 says the Texas defense is still itself without its best player; six or more says Chambliss buying time and finding someone is the story of the night, and 25 points is not enough for Ole Miss's side.
The words we use
The words we use
The call is the final score we are predicting. We write it down before the game and leave it alone, the way you would write your guess on a napkin before kickoff and not touch it after.
The market is the betting line, which is the number of points the people wagering real money expect the favorite to win by. Those people have been better at this than our computer so far, so our call leans on their number.
The model is our computer's own guess at the score, built from the season's numbers. We print it next to the betting line so you can see when the two agree and when they do not.
Tells are three early signs to watch in the first stretch of the game. If they show up, the game is going the way we said; if they do not, we were probably wrong, and you will know it before we do.
Edges are our answer, one matchup at a time, to the question of which team has the better side of it.
Graded means that on Sunday we go back over everything we said and mark each piece right, partly right, or wrong.

The Bottom Line

A field goal either way, and the shape of it is a Texas protection near the bottom of the country against an ordinary Ole Miss rush, and a Texas defense without Colin Simmons against the sixth-best offense in SP+. Ole Miss's offense is the real thing: Chambliss is 142 of 210 for 1,676, 8.0 an attempt, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions with six more on the ground, Deuce Alexander has 35 catches for 523 and five touchdowns, Kewan Lacy 352 yards at 5.7 a carry, and the unit produces value at the 88th percentile and success at the 94th, with passing-downs value at the 95th; it put up 498 yards and 257 on the ground against Missouri. What it does not have is the long ball: its pass explosiveness is at the 19th percentile, against a Texas coverage at the 86th that has allowed four touchdown passes in six games. Its defense is the soft side: success allowed at the 25th percentile, 44.0% on third down, pass success allowed at the 24th, and Thursday's report has safeties Edwin Joseph, MJ Preston and Nascar McCoy and corner Pat Broomfield out. Texas's problem is still its own offense: value at the 17th percentile, rushing value at the 9th, havoc allowed at the 8th, 2 of 10 on third down and 50 plays against Florida, the fewest under Sarkisian (ESPN), and a coach who said Monday he needs to see "a better version of Arch Manning." Texas's defense remains the best unit on the field (success allowed at the 93rd percentile, 2.61 points a scoring chance at the 91st), but Simmons had 10 of its 19 sacks and 15.5 of its 46 tackles for loss, and he is out. Texas is No. 19 in the AP poll and No. 18 in the Coaches; Ole Miss is No. 7 in both.

We think it comes down to a field goal either way, and the shape of it is Texas blockers who have struggled more than almost any in the country against an ordinary Ole Miss pass rush, and a Texas defense without Colin Simmons against one of the best offenses in the country. Ole Miss's offense is for real: quarterback Trinidad Chambliss completes about 68% of his passes at 8 yards a throw with 14 touchdown passes, four interceptions and six rushing touchdowns, receiver Deuce Alexander has 523 yards and five touchdowns, running back Kewan Lacy averages almost 6 yards a carry, and the unit stays on schedule more than almost anyone and is among the best in the country on the downs where it has to throw; it gained 498 yards against Missouri, 257 of them running. What it does not do much is hit long passes, and Texas's pass defense allows those less than most and has given up only four touchdown passes all season. Ole Miss's defense is the soft side: it lets offenses stay on schedule more than most, allows 44% of third downs, and has three safeties and a cornerback ruled out for this game. Texas's problem is still its own offense: it is in the bottom fifth of the country in what it gets from each play, its running game is near the bottom, its blockers let defenders through more than almost anyone, and against Florida it converted 2 of 10 third downs and ran only 50 plays, the fewest in Sarkisian's time at Texas; its coach said Monday he needs to see "a better version of Arch Manning." Texas's defense is still the best unit on the field, but Simmons had 10 of its 19 sacks and is out. Texas is ranked No. 19 by the writers and No. 18 by the coaches; Ole Miss is No. 7 in both polls.

Common opponents: Florida. Florida beat Ole Miss 52–28 in Gainesville on Sept 26 and Texas 27–24 in Austin on Oct 17. Pace: Texas has run 379 offensive plays in six games, 63.2 a game, Ole Miss 364, 60.7; Texas has held the ball 29:38 a game, Ole Miss 26:57. Both teams had their bye in Week 5. Ratings in the table and the model are SP+ as published in the data leg's Monday Oct 19 pull, unchanged from the week before.

What success looks like for Texas

  1. Keep Manning clean, the gap with a strip-sack in it. The Texas protection allows havoc at the 8th percentile and 17 sacks; Florida had five, and the last one ended the game. The Ole Miss rush is at the 49th with 11 sacks, Purchase's 3.5 the most, so this is the one week the protection meets a rush its own size or smaller. Manning, Monday: "I'm going to die on the hill of I'm letting it rip" (Sporting News); the first tell counts whether he gets to.Keep Arch Manning on his feet, the mismatch that ended the Florida game. Texas's blockers let defenders through more than almost anyone and have allowed 17 sacks; Florida had five, and the last one ended the game. Ole Miss's pass rush is about average, with 11 sacks, so this is a week the Texas line meets a rush it can handle. Manning this week: "I'm going to die on the hill of I'm letting it rip." The first sign above counts whether he gets to.
  2. Throw at the safeties who are left. Ole Miss allows pass success on 44.4% of throws (24th percentile) and 236 passing yards a game, and Thursday's report has three safeties (Joseph, Preston, McCoy) and corner Broomfield out; Texas's deep game sits at the 59th against Rebel coverage at the 44th, with Emmett Mosley V's 62-yard catch against Florida, Cam Coleman's six touchdowns, tied for the SEC lead (SI Texas), and Ryan Wingo's 26 catches.Throw at a secondary missing players. Ole Miss's pass defense lets opponents complete useful throws more than most and gives up about 236 passing yards a game, and three of its safeties and a cornerback are ruled out; Texas's long passing game has been a little better than average, with Emmett Mosley V's 62-yard catch against Florida, Cam Coleman's six touchdowns, tied for the most in the conference, and Ryan Wingo's 26 catches.
  3. Make Chambliss play from the pocket, and make the second play short. Sarkisian Thursday: "The people that have defended him the best have tried to minimize him getting out of the pocket, but also not giving up those big kind of home run plays when the first play breaks down and it goes to the second play" (HottyToddy). Texas allows explosive passes at the 86th percentile and Ole Miss's deep game is at the 19th; the Texas front without Simmons still allows 2.48 line yards (91st). The third tell counts the third downs where the second play happens.Keep Chambliss in the pocket, and do not give up the long play when he gets out. Sarkisian said Thursday that the teams that defended him best "tried to minimize him getting out of the pocket, but also not giving up those big kind of home run plays when the first play breaks down and it goes to the second play." Texas's defense allows long passes less than most, and Ole Miss does not hit many; Texas's front, even without Simmons, has been among the best at the line. The third sign above counts the third downs where that second play happens.

How Ole Miss wins it

  1. Win at the Texas line, both ways. The Rebel front stuffs 24.0% of runs (89th) against a Texas line at the 14th in line yards and the 30th in stuffs allowed; Texas has averaged 94 rushing yards over its last three games, and Smothers is out. The Rebel rush is ordinary on paper, but a Texas protection at the 8th percentile turns ordinary into five sacks, as Florida showed.Win at the Texas line on both kinds of plays. Ole Miss's front stops runs at the line more than most, against Texas blockers in the bottom sixth of the country; Texas has averaged about 94 rushing yards over its last three games, and Hollywood Smothers is out. Ole Miss's pass rush is average on paper, but Florida showed what an average rush can do against these Texas blockers: five sacks.
  2. Chambliss on third down, and the backs that just ran for 257. Ole Miss converts 47.9% on third down with passing-downs value at the 95th percentile; Chambliss has six rushing touchdowns, and Lacy (122 on 16) and Makhi Frazier (101 on 15) ran through Missouri (Field Level Media). The Texas run defense allows 2.9 a carry and rush success at the 85th, so the Even on the backs is the backs' best case, and the path is the quarterback's legs on the downs the board says Texas wins.Chambliss on third down, and the running backs who just ran through Missouri. Ole Miss converts almost half its third downs and is among the best in the country on the downs where it has to throw; Chambliss has six rushing touchdowns, and Kewan Lacy (122 yards on 16 carries) and Makhi Frazier (101 on 15) ran through Missouri. Texas's run defense allows under 3 yards a carry, so our toss-up on the running backs is their best case, and Ole Miss's real path is Chambliss running on the downs where Texas should win.
  3. A bounce, a kick, or a fourth-quarter turnover. Texas sits at minus 3 in turnover margin (interceptions minus 2, fumbles minus 1), and ESPN counts Manning's strip-sack against Florida as his third fourth-quarter turnover of the season, the most in the SEC. Ole Miss is minus 1, all of it fumbles. In a 3-point game the team that wins the margins wins the game, and Texas has lost the margins two Saturdays running.One bounce, one kick, or one late turnover. Texas has given the ball away three more times than it has taken it, and ESPN counts Manning's fumble against Florida as his third turnover in a fourth quarter this season, the most in the conference. Ole Miss is one behind, all on fumbles. In a game this close, the team that wins the small stuff wins the game, and Texas has lost the small stuff two Saturdays in a row.

The Matchup Board

Each bar is that side of the team's rank against every other team in the country, computed from 2026 through six games for each team with garbage time removed, or, where it tells the truer story, from the full 2025 season; the note says which. The edge label on each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years and at Thursday's report. Two chips are built without Colin Simmons, out with a high ankle sprain: the Texas front against the Rebel line goes from a full edge to slight, and the Texas rush against the Rebel protection goes to Ole Miss, slight, against a bar that leans Texas by 8, because the bar was built with Simmons in it.

Each bar shows how good that side of the team is compared with every other team in the country, using either this season's six games or all of last season, whichever tells the truer story; the note says which. The longer bar has the edge, and the label next to each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years and at the official injury report. Two of our calls are made without Colin Simmons, who is out: we shrink Texas's edge at the line of scrimmage on defense, and we give Ole Miss's pass blocking a slight edge over Texas's pass rush even though the bar leans Texas, because the bar was built with Simmons playing.

Where it gets decided

Early downs

First and second down, both ways. Texas stays on schedule on 46.9% of standard downs and Ole Miss's defense allows 51.5%, so the board's two Ole Miss chips in the run game are about whether Texas can get four yards at all against a front that stuffs 24.0%; the other way, Ole Miss is at 55.3% on standard downs against a Texas defense that allows 40.6%, and the Even on the backs and the slight Texas chip at the line say the Texas front is still the one unit on the field that can knock Ole Miss off schedule. The faint 2025 bars say the Rebel front is what changed.

First and second down, both ways. Texas gains enough on just under half its normal downs to stay on schedule, and Ole Miss's defense allows a bit more than half, so the question is whether Texas's running game can get four yards at all against a front that stops runs at the line more than most; the other way, Ole Miss stays on schedule more than most offenses, against a Texas defense among the best at knocking teams off it. The faint bars from last year say Ole Miss's front is what changed.

Third down and sub-packages

The money downs, both ways. Texas converts 41.7% (35 of 84) and was 2 of 10 against Florida; Ole Miss's defense allows 44.0% (40 of 91), and the Texas passing-downs value sits at the 20th percentile. Ole Miss converts 47.9% (34 of 71) on a passing-downs value at the 95th; Texas allows 33.3% (29 of 87) and success on 20.5% of passing downs. The sub-packages: the Rebel rush (49th) against the Texas protection (8th) is Ole Miss's chip; the Texas rush without Simmons against the best protection on the page is Ole Miss's, slight; the quarterbacks against the coverages are Texas, slight and Ole Miss, slight. The first and third tells live here.

The downs that decide drives, both ways. Texas converts about 42% of its third downs and went 2 of 10 against Florida, and Ole Miss's defense allows 44%; on the downs where Texas has to throw, its offense has been in the bottom fifth of the country. Ole Miss converts almost 48% and is among the very best on the downs where it has to throw; Texas's defense allows about a third. The matchups within the matchup: Ole Miss's pass rush against Texas's blockers is an Ole Miss edge; Texas's pass rush without Simmons against Ole Miss's blockers is a slight Ole Miss edge; the quarterbacks against the pass defenses are a slight edge each way. The first and third signs above live here.

Red zone, goal line and special teams

The compressed field and the kicking game. Texas scores 4.37 points per scoring opportunity (75th percentile) against a Rebel defense that allows 3.37 (51st); Ole Miss scores 4.86 (93rd) against a Texas defense that allows 2.61 (91st), the best offense and the best defense on the page meeting inside the 40. The deep game is Texas's both ways, the long ball being the shortcut past a red-zone defense, and the Rebel deep game is the softest number in its offense. Field position leans Texas by 40 (Texas, slight): Spetic's 9 of 10 against Carneiro's 9 of 11 and a foot his coach called "an issue," Bird's 46.8 against Chiumento's 43.0, and Niblett's 63-yard return. Turnovers: Texas minus 3, Ole Miss minus 1, no luck in either (Even).

Close to the goal line, and the kicking game. Once a drive crosses the other team's 40, Texas scores an average of 4.37 points against an Ole Miss defense that allows about 3.4; Ole Miss scores 4.86, among the best in the country, against a Texas defense that allows 2.61, also among the best, so the best offense and the best defense on the page meet there. Long passes are a Texas edge both ways, and a long pass is the shortcut past a goal-line defense. Texas has had much better field position this season, its kicker has been more accurate, and Ole Miss's kicker has a sore foot, though Ole Miss's punter kicks it farther; Ryan Niblett's 63-yard return touchdown is the biggest special-teams play either team has. Turnovers: Texas is three behind and Ole Miss one, and we call that a toss-up.

When Texas has the ball
Manning's Passing Game vs. the Rebel SecondaryThird downEdge: Texas, slight
51%
32%
202565%
85%
The 2026 bar leans Texas by 19 (Texas passing value at the 51st percentile, Ole Miss at the 32nd at value allowed and the 24th at pass success allowed); the 2025 bar leaned Ole Miss by 20 (65 vs. 85). Manning is 107 of 167 for 1,298, 7.8 an attempt, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, and went for 173 and one touchdown against Florida, 68 of it before halftime (ESPN). The Rebel secondary allows 236 a game and has five interceptions (Nick Cull two), and Thursday's report has Joseph, Preston and McCoy at safety and Broomfield at corner out. Golding on Manning: "the perception that he's not an elite player right now is crazy to me" (The Rebel Walk transcript). Texas, slight: the opponent's secondary is the reason, not the quarterback's month. This year's numbers lean Texas: Texas's passing game has been about average, and Ole Miss's pass defense has been in the bottom quarter at stopping useful throws; last year leaned Ole Miss. Manning has completed 64% of his passes at 7.8 yards a throw with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, and threw for 173 yards and a touchdown against Florida. Ole Miss gives up about 236 passing yards a game, and three of its safeties and a cornerback are ruled out. Ole Miss's coach on Manning: "the perception that he's not an elite player right now is crazy to me." A slight Texas edge, because of who is missing on the other side, not because of how Manning has played lately.
The Texas Line vs. the Rebel Front (Run Blocking)Early downsEdge: Ole Miss
14%
63%
202535%
24%
The bar leans Ole Miss by 49 (Texas line yards at the 14th percentile, 2.71 a carry, against a Rebel front that allows 2.76, the 63rd), and the stuff rates lean the same way: the Rebel front stuffs 24.0% of runs (89th), Texas is stuffed on 20.0% (30th), and its power success is 71.4% (40th). The 2025 bar leaned Texas (35 vs. 24), with a different Rebel front. Texas has run for 61, 122 and 99 yards in its last three games, Jaydon Chatman, OL, is out on Friday's report, and Jackson Christian, OL, is questionable. Ole Miss, on this year's bars and three weeks of film. This year's numbers lean Ole Miss by a lot: Texas's blockers have been in the bottom sixth of the country at opening running lanes, and Ole Miss's front stops runs at the line more than most; last year leaned Texas, against a different Ole Miss front. Texas has averaged about 94 rushing yards over its last three games, lineman Jaydon Chatman is out, and lineman Jackson Christian is questionable. An Ole Miss edge.
Brown, Cooper and the Backs vs. the Rebel Run DefenseEarly downsEdge: Ole Miss, slight
9%
32%
Texas rushing value at the 9th percentile against Ole Miss at the 32nd at value allowed and the 36th at rush success allowed (43.6%); the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 37 (49 vs. 12). With Smothers (65 for 289, the team's long of 45) out, Raleek Brown, 61 for 265 at 4.3 with five touchdowns and the 32-yard score against Florida, gets the carries, with Derrek Cooper, probable, 28 for 98. Ole Miss allows 4.0 a carry and 11 rushing touchdowns in six games. Ole Miss, slight: two below-average units, and the one with the worse number is Texas's. Texas's running game has been near the bottom of the country, and Ole Miss's run defense below average; last year leaned Texas by a lot. With Hollywood Smothers out, Raleek Brown, who has five touchdowns, gets the carries, with Derrek Cooper behind him. Ole Miss allows 4 yards a carry and has given up 11 rushing touchdowns in six games. A slight Ole Miss edge: neither unit is good, and Texas's is the worse of the two.
Texas Pass Protection vs. the Rebel Pass RushThird downEdge: Ole Miss
8%
49%
Built from the rush: the Ole Miss front seven creates havoc at the 49th percentile (9.5% of plays) with 11 sacks (Purchase 3.5 with 6.5 tackles for loss, Echoles two, Ferrelli two, Suntarine Perkins 1.5), an ordinary rush; Texas allows havoc at the 8th (18.3%) with 17 sacks allowed, five of them against Florida (ESPN), the last one Myles Graham's strip with 1:58 left. The 2025 bar leaned Ole Miss too (43 vs. 55). Ole Miss, a 41-point gap, the second-widest on Texas's side of the ball behind the 49 at the line; the first tell counts what it costs. This one is built from how good the other team's pass rush is: Ole Miss's gets into the backfield about as often as an average team, with 11 sacks, 3.5 by Blake Purchase. Texas's blockers let defenders through more than almost anyone in the country and have allowed 17 sacks, five to Florida, the last one the fumble with under two minutes left. Last year leaned Ole Miss too. An Ole Miss edge, one of the two biggest gaps on Texas's side of the ball; the first sign above counts what it costs.
Texas Deep Game vs. Rebel CoverageRed zoneEdge: Texas
59%
44%
The bar leans Texas by 15 (Texas pass explosiveness at the 59th percentile, Rebel coverage at the 44th at explosives allowed, 1.57 a play), and the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 40 (92 vs. 52). Mosley is 19 for 292 with the 62-yarder that set up the Coleman touchdown against Florida (AP), Coleman 19 for 322 at 16.9 with six touchdowns and a 44, Wingo 26 for 345 with a 45. Three of the safeties who would cover them are out. Texas, on both years and the injury report. This year's numbers lean Texas, and last year's leaned Texas by a lot: Texas's long passing game has been a little better than average, and Ole Miss's defense allows long passes a bit more than an average team. Emmett Mosley V has a 62-yard catch, the one that set up Texas's last touchdown against Florida, Cam Coleman averages almost 17 yards a catch with six touchdowns, and Ryan Wingo has a 45-yarder. Three of the safeties who would cover them are ruled out. A Texas edge, on both years and the injury report.
When Ole Miss has the ball
Chambliss's Passing Game vs. Texas CoverageThird downEdge: Ole Miss, slight
76%
90%
Built from the quarterback: Ole Miss's passing value is at the 90th percentile, its passing success at the 89th and its passing-downs value at the 95th; Chambliss is 142 of 210 (67.6%) for 1,676, 8.0 an attempt, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, with four fumbles, two lost. Texas allows passing value at the 76th and pass success at the 91st (34.3%), has given up four touchdown passes in six games, and has three interceptions (Rasheem Biles two, Graceson Littleton one). Sarkisian Thursday: "It's him scrambling to buy time to create the second play in the passing game, the explosive plays down the field" (HottyToddy). The 2025 bar leaned Ole Miss as well (73 vs. 94). Ole Miss, slight: the best unit on the field against the second-best, and the rush that would shorten Chambliss's second play is missing its best player. This one is built from how good the quarterback is: Ole Miss's passing game has been among the best in the country, and on the downs where it has to throw it has been among the very best. Chambliss completes about 68% of his passes at 8 yards a throw with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, and has fumbled four times, losing two. Texas's pass defense has been among the best at stopping useful throws and has given up only four touchdown passes in six games. Sarkisian on Chambliss: "It's him scrambling to buy time to create the second play in the passing game, the explosive plays down the field." Last year leaned Ole Miss too. A slight Ole Miss edge: the pass rush that would cut his scrambles short is missing its best player.
Lacy, Frazier and the Rebel Backs vs. the Texas Run DefenseEarly downsEdge: Even
82%
83%
One point apart: Ole Miss rushing value at the 83rd percentile and rush success at the 96th (52.0%), against a Texas run defense at the 82nd at value allowed and the 85th at rush success allowed (34.9%), 2.9 a carry (638 on 217) and four rushing touchdowns allowed in six games. Lacy is 62 for 352 at 5.7 with five touchdowns, Frazier 45 for 254 at 5.6, Chambliss 36 for 127 and six touchdowns; against Missouri the Rebels ran for 257, Lacy 122 on 16 and Frazier 101 on 15 (Field Level Media). The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 23 (86 vs. 63). Even, the closest pairing on the page. Ole Miss's running game has been among the best in the country at staying on schedule, and Texas's run defense among the best at stopping it, allowing under 3 yards a carry and four rushing touchdowns in six games. Kewan Lacy averages almost 6 yards a carry with five touchdowns, Makhi Frazier almost as much, and Chambliss has six rushing touchdowns; against Missouri, Ole Miss ran for 257 yards. Last year leaned Texas. A toss-up, the closest matchup on the page.
The Rebel Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking)Early downsEdge: Texas, slight
91%
62%
202578%
25%
The bar leans Texas by 29 (the Texas front allows 2.48 line yards, the 91st percentile, and stuffs 23.4% of runs, the 86th; the Rebel line creates 3.18, the 62nd, and is stuffed on 15.8%, the 68th), and the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 53 (78 vs. 25). The chip is slight because Simmons, out, has 15.5 of the Texas defense's 46 tackles for loss, and because Ole Miss's line just opened 257 rushing yards against Missouri. The Rebel line has its own questions: Terez Davis, OL, the left tackle, is questionable, Emanuel Faulkner, OL, is out, and Brycen Sanders, OL, was upgraded to probable Friday. Texas, slight. This year's numbers lean Texas, and last year's leaned Texas by more: Texas's front has been among the best at the line, and Ole Miss's blockers a little better than average. We keep it to a slight Texas edge because Simmons, who is out, has a third of Texas's tackles behind the line, and because Ole Miss's blockers just opened 257 rushing yards against Missouri. Ole Miss has its own questions up front: its left tackle, Terez Davis, is questionable and Emanuel Faulkner is out; Brycen Sanders was upgraded to probable on Friday. A slight Texas edge.
Rebel Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass RushThird downEdge: Ole Miss, slight
91%
83%
202581%
74%
The bar leans Texas by 8 (Texas front-seven havoc at the 91st percentile, 13.6% of plays; the Rebel protection allows havoc at the 83rd, 12.0%, and five sacks in six games, the best protection number on the page), and the chip goes the other way, said so: the bar was built with Simmons, who has 10 of Texas's 19 sacks and is out, as is Richard Wesley, EDGE. Without him the rush is Maraad Watson's three sacks, Hero Kanu's four hurries, and Lance Jackson, EDGE, who said, "If (Simmons) can't go, I mean, just like for me, I got to step up" (The Daily Texan). The 2025 bar leaned Texas (81 vs. 74). Ole Miss, slight. This year's numbers lean Texas a little: Texas's defense gets into the backfield more than almost anyone, and Ole Miss's blockers have allowed only five sacks in six games, the best blocking number on this page. We give Ole Miss a slight edge anyway, and say so, because those Texas numbers were built with Colin Simmons, who has 10 of Texas's 19 sacks and is out, along with another pass rusher, Richard Wesley. Without him the rush is Maraad Watson's three sacks and Lance Jackson, who said, "If (Simmons) can't go, I mean, just like for me, I got to step up." Last year leaned Texas. A slight Ole Miss edge.
Alexander, Ray and the Deep Game vs. Texas CoverageRed zoneEdge: Texas
86%
19%
The widest gap on the board, 67 points. Ole Miss's pass explosiveness is at the 19th percentile, the one soft number in its offense: Deuce Alexander is 35 for 523 at 14.9 with five touchdowns and a 62, Traylon Ray 20 for 276, Caleb Odom, TE, 21 for 267, Horatio Fields 19 for 233, and nobody else has a catch longer than 36. Texas allows explosive passes at the 86th (1.40 a play), and the 2025 bar leaned Texas as well (71 vs. 56). Texas, on both years; Sarkisian's worry is the scramble that turns a short play into a long one, which is why the chip on Chambliss is Ole Miss's and this one is Texas's. Long passes are the one soft spot in Ole Miss's offense: it completes them less often than most teams, even though Deuce Alexander has 523 yards, five touchdowns and a 62-yarder. Texas's defense allows long passes less than most, and last year leaned Texas too. A full Texas edge, the biggest gap on the page; Sarkisian's worry is Chambliss scrambling and turning a short play into a long one, which is why we gave the quarterback matchup to Ole Miss and this one to Texas.
The margins
Special Teams & Field PositionSpecial teamsEdge: Texas, slight
62%
22%
202585%
24%
The bar leans Texas by 40 (average starting spot at the 62nd percentile, the Texas 30.0, to Ole Miss's 22nd, its own 27.1; last year 85 vs. 24). The kickers lean Texas: Gianni Spetic 9 of 10 with a 52, 22 of 22 on extra points; Lucas Carneiro 9 of 11 with a 57, and Golding said Monday, "Lucas' foot has kind of been an issue that we really didn't realize going into Florida" (The Rebel Walk transcript). The punters lean Ole Miss (Oscar Bird 46.8 on 18 with six inside the 20; Mac Chiumento 43.0 on 24). The returners lean Texas: Ryan Niblett has 15 punt returns for 192 and the 63-yard touchdown that made it 17–3 against Florida; Alexander averages 9.2 on five. The Texas cover units have allowed a punt-return touchdown at Tennessee and a blocked punt in Dallas, which is why it is slight. Texas has started its drives in better field position than Ole Miss this season, by a lot, and last year too. Texas's kicker, Gianni Spetic, has made 9 of 10; Ole Miss's, Lucas Carneiro, has made 9 of 11, and his coach said his foot "has kind of been an issue." Ole Miss's punter averages almost 47 yards to Texas's 43. Texas's punt returner, Ryan Niblett, returned one 63 yards for a touchdown against Florida. Texas's punt team has given up a long return touchdown at Tennessee and a blocked punt in Dallas this season, which is why the edge is only slight.
Coaching & LuckEdge: Even
No computed bar, and Even. The luck half: Texas sits at minus 3 in turnover margin (three interceptions made, five thrown; two fumbles recovered, three lost), and Ole Miss at minus 1 (five and five on interceptions, a fumble margin of minus 1); neither has luck in the bank, and the one number for Texas that is not luck is ESPN's three fourth-quarter Manning turnovers. The coaching half: Pete Golding, in charge since Lane Kiffin left, on Sarkisian: "I think he's one of the best play callers in the country, and it's not close," and on Texas's record, "a lot of it to me has been bad luck, to be honest with you" (The Rebel Walk transcript); Sarkisian after Florida: "We're going to evaluate everything from an offensive perspective. Part of that is playcalling" (ESPN). Discipline: Texas 54.3 penalty yards a game, Ole Miss 63.8. Even. No bar here, and a toss-up. On turnovers, Texas has given the ball away three more times than it has taken it, and Ole Miss one more; neither team is sitting on a lucky streak waiting to run out, and the one Texas number that is not luck is Manning's three turnovers in fourth quarters. On coaching: Ole Miss's Pete Golding, who took over when Lane Kiffin left, said of Sarkisian, "I think he's one of the best play callers in the country, and it's not close," and of Texas's season, "a lot of it to me has been bad luck, to be honest with you"; Sarkisian said after the Florida game that he would evaluate everything on offense, "Part of that is playcalling." Texas is penalized about 54 yards a game, Ole Miss about 64. A toss-up.

Game-Week Intel

Texas Storylines

Ole Miss Storylines

Chatter check: Longhorn spaces are on Manning, the play-calling and a 4-2 team at No. 19 (Sarkisian named it himself: "the sky is falling and the season is over"); national items on benching Manning and on the "most important game of Sarkisian's career" surfaced in search and were not read. Rebel spaces are on the Missouri win and the Austin crowd at night. Nothing in it moves a number on this page.

Availability & Injury Report · from the SEC's Wednesday Oct 21, Thursday Oct 22 and Friday Oct 23 reports as the beat relayed them; the report 90 minutes before kickoff is the last word, and this block is rechecked on game day. Texas: Colin Simmons · EDGE · Out, high ankle sprain against Florida; doubtful Wednesday, out Thursday and Friday; expected to miss a few weeks (Sporting News). Richard Wesley · EDGE · Out, out on all three reports. Hollywood Smothers · RB · Out, questionable Wednesday, doubtful Thursday, out Friday, an upper-body injury (SI Texas). Kaliq Lockett · WR · Out and Jaydon Chatman · OL · Out, questionable Wednesday and Thursday, out Friday. Jackson Christian · OL · Questionable, added Friday. Derrek Cooper · RB · Probable, added Thursday. Arch Manning · QB · Available, the starter (Sarkisian, Oct 19: "He's our starter"). Ole Miss: Izaiah Hartrup · WR · Out, Edwin Joseph · S · Out, MJ Preston · S · Out, Ant Davis Jr. · LB · Out, Pat Broomfield · CB · Out (downgraded from questionable Thursday), Kervin Johnson Jr. · WR · Out, Nascar McCoy · S · Out, Emanuel Faulkner · OL · Out. Terez Davis · OL · Questionable, the left tackle. Brycen Sanders · OL · Probable, upgraded Friday. Kewan Lacy · RB · Available, Patrick Kutas · OL · Available and Caleb Cunningham · WR · Available, probable Wednesday and off the later reports. Trinidad Chambliss · QB · Available, the starter, on no report. Checked Saturday, Oct 24, 5:53 AM CT; nothing newer than Friday's lists was found. Friday's lists are from The Rebel Walk (Oct 23) and the Clarion Ledger (Oct 23, updated), Thursday's from The Rebel Walk (Oct 22) and HottyToddy (Oct 23), Wednesday's from SB Nation via Yahoo (Oct 22). Rechecked on game day.

Press Conferences

Coach Sarkisian

The Players

As reported

Player interviews are posted on the official channel, youtube.com/@TexasLonghorns.

Checked Oct 25. Video is linked from the official Texas Athletics site, with no transcripts. When the school posts no player session, beat coverage from Burnt Orange Nation is linked instead, with no quote text.

What the Data Says

Two sets of numbers: the full 2025 season, and 2026 through six games for each team, which is a read and not yet a verdict. The SP+ rows are as the data service published them in Monday's pull, unchanged from the week before. Definitions for every metric live in the Data Dictionary.

Two sets of numbers: all of last season, and the six games so far this year for each team, which is still early to trust fully. The ratings rows are as the data service published them on Monday, the same as a week earlier. Every number is defined in the Data Dictionary.

Schedule-adjusted view (SP+)TexasOle Miss
SP+ overall, 2025 (rank)+16.2 (No. 17)+24.0 (No. 7)
SP+ overall, 2026 (rank), Monday's pull+24.4 (No. 6)+15.9 (No. 16)
SP+ offense, 2026+36.4+39.9
SP+ defense, 2026 (lower is better)+12.2+24.4
Off. success rate, 2026 (pctl)42.7% (44th)51.1% (94th)
Off. explosiveness, 2026 (pctl)1.16 (20th)1.20 (32nd)
Def. success rate, 2026 (pctl)34.2% (93rd)44.2% (25th)
Def. points per scoring opportunity, 2026 (pctl)2.61 (91st)3.37 (51st)
Third down, 2026 (offense / defense)41.7% / 33.3%47.9% / 44.0%
Turnover margin, 2025 / 2026+14 / −3+1 / −1
Sacks made / allowed, 202619 / 1711 / 5
Penalty yards a game, 202654.363.8
2025 record10-313-2
2026 results59-7 Texas State, 24-23 Ohio State, 30-6 UTSA, 20-17 at Tennessee, 24-27 Oklahoma (Dallas), 24-27 Florida41-38 Louisville (Nashville), 41-9 Charlotte, 32-24 LSU, 28-52 at Florida, 52-17 at Vanderbilt, 31-3 Missouri

What the table says: the two offenses rate 3.5 points apart in SP+, Ole Miss's the better, and the two defenses 12.2 apart, Texas's the better, which is the whole of the model's number: the Texas offense plus the Ole Miss defense adds to 60.8, the Ole Miss offense plus the Texas defense to 52.1, and 2.5 for the home field makes it Texas by 11.2. The rows underneath say why the market is at 3: the Ole Miss offense stays on schedule at the 94th percentile and the Texas offense at the 44th, and the SP+ rows are a week old, from before Florida, Missouri and Simmons's ankle. The Texas defense's rows are the best on the page (93rd at stopping plays, 91st at keeping opponents out once they get close); the Ole Miss defense is a 25th-percentile unit at stopping plays. Last year's rows describe a 10-3 team and a 13-2 one, and a Texas turnover margin that was +14 and is now minus 3.

Sources & Method

Our call follows the betting line, and our computer model is printed beside it for comparison, because the line has been the better guide this season. This week the two disagree by eight points, the model more Texas, on ratings that have not moved since before last weekend, and the call stays with the line. Ole Miss's navy fails our color check in both modes (too dark for a bar) and its red cannot be told from burnt orange in light mode, so Ole Miss appears on this page in a lifted shade of its own navy, rung 3 of our clash ladder, validated against burnt orange in both modes, with the team named on every label. Not betting advice. Every claim on this page is graded Sunday, misses first.