We said Texas 28, Ole Miss 25. Texas won 34–27. Right winner, the margin four points light and the total eight points light: PARTLY. The market had Texas by 3 and was off by 4; the model had Texas by 11.2 and was off by 4.2, the market's week by two tenths of a point. The game was three games. Texas led 24–3 at the half on a 50-yard Ryan Wingo touchdown, two short touchdown runs and a goal-line interception by Rasheem Biles; Ole Miss scored 21 straight, the first seven on Blake Purchase's strip-sack of Arch Manning that Kam Franklin recovered in the end zone, to tie it at 13:57 of the fourth; and Texas won it on the ground, Raleek Brown's 47-yard run breaking open the go-ahead drive and his 28-yarder setting up the field goal, before Jelani McDonald intercepted Trinidad Chambliss in the end zone on the last play. The board's misses were all on the ground and in Chambliss's arm: the two chips that leaned Ole Miss against the Texas run game were WRONG, Texas running for 207 and 6.3 a carry without the sacks and kneel-downs, and the Ole Miss edge on Chambliss against the Texas coverage was WRONG, 25 of 52 for 250 and three interceptions.
We wrote down Texas 28, Ole Miss 25. Texas won 34 to 27. We had the right winner, but the margin and the total points were both too low, so our prediction was PARTLY right. The betting line had Texas by 3 and our computer had Texas by about 11; the betting line was a hair closer. The game came in three parts. Texas led 24 to 3 at halftime. Ole Miss then scored 21 points in a row, starting with a sack that knocked the ball out of Arch Manning's hands for a touchdown, and tied the game early in the fourth quarter. Texas won it by running the ball: Raleek Brown's 47-yard run broke open the go-ahead touchdown drive, and Jelani McDonald intercepted the last pass of the game in the end zone. Where our matchup calls were WRONG: we expected Ole Miss to stop Texas's running game, and Texas ran for 207 yards; and we expected Chambliss to have the better of Texas's pass defense, and he completed fewer than half his passes and threw three interceptions.
16 falsifiable claims graded: the score call, three tells, twelve matchup-board edges. The situation reads on the scouting report restated those twelve chips by id and added no claim of their own, so their grades are the chips' grades. Six storylines and the chatter check graded on whether they affected the game or the read. Full grades live in the season ledger (data/2026/season_ledger.csv), with each pregame claim quoted verbatim.
Our confidence first. The 59% and the 110-86. We printed a moneyline chance of about 59% for Texas and a history: since 2023, favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points in the first five weeks went 110-86, with a median margin of 3, and the 89 playing at home went 52-37. Texas was one more home favorite's win, by 7. The call's winner was right; its shape was a field-goal game with 53 points, and it was a 21-point game at the half and a 61-point game at the end.
Our own confidence comes first. We said Texas had about a 59% chance to win, and we printed the history: teams favored by about a field goal this early in a season had won 110 games and lost 86, usually by about 3 points. Texas won, by 7. We expected a close, fairly low-scoring game; Texas led by 21 at halftime, and 61 points were scored in all.
The Texas line against the Rebel front, Ole Miss at full size: WRONG, in Texas's favor, and the worst chip on the page. The bar leaned Ole Miss by 49, a Texas line at the 14th percentile in line yards against a Rebel front that stuffs 24.0% of runs, and Texas had run for 61, 122 and 99 in its last three games. Texas ran 42 times for 207 in the box, 38 for 240 without the two sacks and two kneel-downs, 6.3 a carry; six of the 38 were stopped at or behind the line, 16%, under the Rebel front's 24%. Brown's 47-yarder up the middle on second-and-9 from the Texas 21, with the score 24–24, was the play of the game, and his 28-yarder on second-and-10 from the Ole Miss 44 set up the field goal that made it a two-score game. Texas also converted its one fourth down on the ground, Brown for 7 on fourth-and-1 at its own 26 in the third quarter.
Our worst miss: we said Ole Miss's defensive front would beat Texas's blockers, and that was WRONG. Texas had run poorly for three straight games and Ole Miss's front stops runs at the line more than most. Texas ran for 207 yards, more than 6 a carry leaving out sacks and kneel-downs, and Ole Miss stopped only about one Texas run in six at or behind the line. Raleek Brown's 47-yard run with the game tied 24 to 24 was the play of the game.
Brown, Cooper and the backs against the Rebel run defense, Ole Miss slight: WRONG, in Texas's favor. The backs ran 31 times for 198, 6.4 a carry: Brown 23 for 157 with the 47 and the 28, and Michael Terry III, who was not named in the chip, 8 for 41 with a 2-yard touchdown and the 12 and 19 on the go-ahead drive. Derrek Cooper, probable, had no carry and one catch for 7. Two below-average units, we said, and the one with the worse number was Texas's; Texas's was the better one on Saturday by more than two yards a carry against Ole Miss's 4.0 allowed.
We gave Ole Miss a small edge against Texas's running backs, and that was WRONG. Texas's backs ran 31 times for 198 yards, more than 6 a carry. Raleek Brown had 157, and Michael Terry III, a back we did not even name, scored a touchdown and carried the go-ahead drive to the 1-yard line.
Chambliss's passing game against the Texas coverage, Ole Miss slight: WRONG, in Texas's favor. We built the chip from the quarterback, passing value at the 90th percentile and passing-downs value at the 95th, and quoted Sarkisian on "the second play." Chambliss threw 52 times for 250, 4.8 an attempt, 25 completions, two touchdowns to Horatio Fields and three interceptions: Justin Cryer's at the Texas 26 in the first quarter, Biles's on fourth-and-2 at the Texas 2 at the end of the half, and McDonald's in the end zone on the last play. His scrambles produced 15 yards on four carries. The Texas defense broke up eight passes in the box, Biles two of them, and he hurried Chambliss four times. Three pass-interference flags on Texas, two of them in or near the end zone, helped Ole Miss to two of its touchdowns, which is the case the coverage was not perfect; it was not Ole Miss's.
We gave Chambliss a small edge over Texas's pass defense, and that was WRONG; Texas won it. Chambliss completed 25 of 52 passes, under 5 yards a throw, with two touchdowns and three interceptions, including one at the Texas 2-yard line before halftime and one in the end zone on the last play of the game. His scrambling gained almost nothing. Texas did commit three pass-interference penalties that helped Ole Miss score, so the pass defense was not perfect, but the matchup was clearly Texas's.
Lacy, Frazier and the Rebel backs against the Texas run defense, Even: WRONG, in Texas's favor. The closest pairing on the page went to Texas by a distance. Kewan Lacy, 5.7 a carry coming in and 122 on 16 against Missouri, ran 16 times for 36, 2.3 a carry, with three carries for nothing and one for minus 2 on third-and-1; Makhi Frazier ran 6 for 47, 34 of them on one carry. The Rebel backs ran 23 times for 82 with no touchdown, against a run game at the 96th percentile in rush success. Ole Miss's longest run that was not Frazier's 34 was Oscar Bird's 17 on a fake punt.
We called Ole Miss's running backs against Texas's run defense a toss-up, and that was WRONG; Texas won it clearly. Kewan Lacy, who averaged almost 6 yards a carry coming in, ran 16 times for 36 yards. Ole Miss's backs had one long run, a 34-yarder by Makhi Frazier, and no touchdowns.
Two tells were PARTLY. Sacks and hurries on Manning over his first 20 dropbacks came in at four, between the two-or-fewer that said Manning lets it rip and the five-or-more that said Florida again; two dropbacks after the window closed, the 22nd by the box's count, came Purchase's strip-sack touchdown. Texas's first 15 carries by a back came in at 59 yards, 3.9 a carry, a tenth under the four that said the Rebel chips at the line were too big; they were, and the backs finished at 6.4.
Two of our three early signs were PARTLY right. Ole Miss pressured Manning four times in his first 20 passing plays, between the two lines we drew, and two passing plays later sacked him and scored on the fumble. Texas's backs averaged 3.9 yards on their first 15 carries, just under the 4 we said would show Texas could run; it could, and finished at more than 6 a carry.
Ole Miss went three-and-out to start, Bo Mascoe and Zina Umeozulu hurrying the third-down throw, and Texas took 12 plays and 5:46 to get a field goal: Cam Coleman for 12, Emmett Mosley V for 23, Manning for 6 on third-and-3, and then Brown for 1 and 2 at the 5 and a third-down throw to Wingo broken up by Suntarine Perkins under Keaton Thomas's hurry; Gianni Spetic from 23, 3–0. Deuce Alexander's 36-yard catch set up Lucas Carneiro's 46-yarder, 3–3, after Lacy was stopped twice for nothing at the 29. Then two interceptions in two snaps: Jalyn Crawford picked off Manning on third-and-7 at the Texas 33, and on the next play Justin Cryer picked off Chambliss at the Texas 26 and ran it back 15. Bird's 54-yard punt was returned 8 by Ryan Niblett to the Texas 40, a holding flag on Michael Masunas made it first-and-18, and Wingo caught a short throw and ran 43 yards to the 25; Brown went 23 to the 2 and Manning scored from there, 10–3 with 55 seconds left. Ole Miss's next possession ended on Chambliss's intentional grounding on third-and-10. Manning converted third-and-17 with a 19-yard run, and on second-and-11 from midfield hit Wingo deep down the middle for a 50-yard touchdown under Purchase's hurry, 17–3 at 12:38 of the second. Two Ole Miss flags, roughing the passer on Tah'j Butler and a face mask on Thomas, carried Texas from its own 35 to the 20 on its next drive, a pass-interference flag on Sharif Denson put the ball on the 2, and Terry scored, 24–3 at 9:21. Ole Miss's last drive of the half was its best, 12 plays and 82 yards with Bird's 17-yard run on a fake punt on fourth-and-6 and Frazier's 34-yarder, two unnecessary-roughness flags on Ian Geffrard and Lance Jackson moved it from the Texas 20 to the 5, and it ended with three Lacy runs to the 2 and Chambliss's fourth-and-2 throw intercepted by Biles. Texas had spent all three of its timeouts on that drive to save the clock, took over at its own 3 with 1:38 left, lost a 13-yard Brown run to a holding flag, and knelt out the half. The second half started with an unsportsmanlike-conduct flag on Kosi Okpala on the kickoff, Texas at its own 12, and four snaps later, after a Rebel offside flag turned third-and-6 into a third-and-1 that Terry converted, Purchase came free, sacked Manning for 23 yards and knocked the ball out, and Kam Franklin fell on it in the end zone, 24–10 at 13:19. Ole Miss then went 80 yards in 10 plays with two Texas pass-interference flags and a roughing-the-passer flag in it, and Chambliss hit Fields from 6, 24–17 at 6:46. Texas went three-and-out, Franklin sacking Manning for 8; converted a fourth-and-1 at its own 26 on Brown's 7-yard run and punted anyway; and Ole Miss tied it 63 seconds into the fourth quarter, Alexander for 11, another pass-interference flag on McDonald, and Fields from 27 down the left side, 24–24 at 13:57. Crawford intercepted Manning again three snaps later, at the Ole Miss 20, and the Texas defense forced a punt. Then the drive that won it: Brown for 1, Brown for 47 up the middle to the 32, Terry for 12 and 19 to the 1, Terry stopped, and Manning in from the 1, 31–24 at 8:04. A personal foul on Okpala on the kickoff gave Ole Miss the ball at its 47, and the drive died at the Texas 41 on three incompletions, Biles breaking up one; Alex January blocked Carneiro's 58-yard try. Texas ran the next 3:48 off the clock, Brown for 12 and 28, and Spetic made it 34–24 from 33 at 2:25. Ole Miss went 53 yards in 63 seconds for Carneiro's 39-yarder, recovered the onside kick at its 37, converted a third-and-10 and a fourth-and-8 and got to the Texas 24, and on second-and-15 from the 29 with two seconds left McDonald intercepted Chambliss in the end zone.
The first quarter was close: a Texas field goal, an Ole Miss field goal, and then an interception each on back-to-back plays. Texas's Ryan Wingo turned a short catch into a 43-yard gain, Raleek Brown ran 23 yards to the 2-yard line, and Arch Manning scored on a short run, 10 to 3. Early in the second quarter Manning ran for a first down on third-and-17 and then threw a 50-yard touchdown pass to Wingo, 17 to 3. Two Ole Miss penalties moved Texas down the field again, and Michael Terry III ran in from the 2, 24 to 3. Ole Miss drove to the Texas 2-yard line before halftime, helped by a fake punt, but Rasheem Biles intercepted Chambliss's fourth-down pass. The second half started badly for Texas: an Ole Miss defender sacked Manning, knocked the ball loose, and Ole Miss recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown, 24 to 10. Ole Miss then drove 80 yards, helped by three Texas penalties, for a touchdown, and early in the fourth quarter Chambliss threw a 27-yard touchdown pass to Horatio Fields to tie the game at 24. Manning threw his second interception soon after, but Texas's defense held. Then Brown broke a 47-yard run, Terry carried twice for 31 yards to the 1, and Manning scored, 31 to 24. Texas blocked a long Ole Miss field-goal try, ran more than three and a half minutes off the clock, and kicked a field goal, 34 to 24. Ole Miss kicked a field goal, recovered an onside kick, and drove to the Texas 24, and on the final play Jelani McDonald intercepted Chambliss in the end zone.
| Ole Miss | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 363 | 419 |
| Passing / rushing | 250 / 113 | 212 / 207 |
| Yards an attempt (pass) | 4.8 | 7.1 |
| Rushing, carries (a carry) | 30 (3.8; an intentional grounding and a fake punt counted as runs) | 42 (4.9; two sacks and two kneel-downs counted as runs) |
| Sacks made · hurries | 2 · 7 | 0 · 6 |
| First downs | 23 | 23 |
| Third downs · fourth downs | 6 of 18 · 2 of 3 | 3 of 13 · 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 3 (3 interceptions) | 3 (2 interceptions, 1 fumble returned for a touchdown) |
| Penalties | 8 for 58 | 14 for 134 |
| Time of possession | 25:03 | 34:57 |
| The board's decisive gap | The Texas run game, which the board gave to Ole Miss twice: 240 yards on 38 carries without sacks and kneel-downs, and the 47-yard run that broke open the winning drive | |
Next is Mississippi State, at home. Texas hosts Mississippi State at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct 31, kickoff TBD. The Game Plan comes Monday. Two things carry to it: a run game that found 207 yards against a front that stuffs a quarter of the runs it sees, and a pass rush that went without a sack in the first game without Colin Simmons.
Next Saturday, Texas plays Mississippi State at home. The game is Oct 31 in Austin, with the kickoff time not yet set; our scouting report comes Monday. Two things carry over: Texas finally ran the ball well, and its pass rush did not sack the quarterback once without Colin Simmons.
| Line score | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | 3 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 27 |
| Texas | 10 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 34 |
Two field goals, two interceptions on consecutive snaps, and the first long play. Texas's 12-play opening drive stalled at the 5 when Brown ran for 1 and 2 and the third-down throw was broken up, a first look at the Rebel front the board feared; the second tell read 13 on Brown's first two carries and minus 2 on Terry's first. Crawford's interception of Manning and Cryer's of Chambliss on the next snap cancelled out. Then Wingo's 43-yard run after a short catch on first-and-18 and Brown's 23-yarder made it 10–3, the first of the plays the deep-game chip, Texas, was about. Two of Ole Miss's three third-down misses in the quarter came under hurries, Mascoe and Umeozulu's and Biles's; the third tell stood at 1 of 4 after the quarter, Alexander's 7 on third-and-5 at 0:11 the conversion. The number: 43.
Each team kicked a field goal, and each quarterback threw an interception on back-to-back plays. Then Ryan Wingo turned a short catch into a 43-yard gain, Raleek Brown ran 23 yards, and Arch Manning scored from the 2, 10 to 3. Ole Miss converted one of its four third downs in the quarter.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss | own 25 at 15:00 | 3 | 0 | PUNT | 0–0 |
| Texas | own 26 at 14:13 | 12 | 69 | FG | 3–0 |
| Ole Miss | own 25 at 8:27 | 7 | 46 | FG | 3–3 |
| Texas | own 25 at 6:01 | 3 | 3 | INT | 3–3 |
| Ole Miss | Texas 32 at 4:34 | 1 | 0 | INT | 3–3 |
| Texas | own 41 at 4:27 | 3 | 2 | PUNT | 3–3 |
| Ole Miss | own 11 at 3:32 | 3 | 3 | PUNT | 3–3 |
| Texas | own 40 at 2:12 | 4 | 60 | TD | 10–3 |
| Ole Miss | own 25 at 0:55 | 6 | 4 | PUNT | 3–10 |
Fourteen for Texas, a 21-point lead at the half, and the goal-line stop that kept it there. Manning's 19-yard run on third-and-17 and Wingo's 50-yard touchdown on the next series, Purchase's hurry and all, put the Texas deep game on the board, 17–3; two Rebel personal fouls and a pass-interference flag set up Terry's 2-yard run, 24–3. Ole Miss then ran its best drive of the half, 12 plays and 82 yards with a fake punt and Frazier's 34, and Lacy ran three times from the 10 to the 2 before Biles intercepted Chambliss on fourth-and-2. The third tell was at 1 of 9 by then, Ole Miss 0 for 5 on third down in the quarter, one of them an intentional grounding. The first tell settled here too, at four pressures on Manning's first 20 dropbacks counting the snaps flags erased; by the box's count, which leaves those out, the 20th came on the first series of the third quarter and the count was still four. The number: 2, the yard line Ole Miss left with nothing.
Texas scored twice more: a 50-yard touchdown pass to Wingo and a 2-yard run by Michael Terry III after two Ole Miss penalties, 24 to 3. Ole Miss drove 82 yards to the Texas 2 before halftime, including a fake punt, and Rasheem Biles intercepted Chambliss on fourth down. Ole Miss had converted one of its first nine third downs.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 39 at 14:28 | 5 | 61 | TD | 17–3 |
| Ole Miss | own 25 at 12:38 | 3 | 6 | PUNT | 3–17 |
| Texas | own 38 at 11:36 | 6 | 62 | TD | 24–3 |
| Ole Miss | own 25 at 9:21 | 3 | 7 | PUNT | 3–24 |
| Texas | own 25 at 7:52 | 3 | 8 | PUNT | 24–3 |
| Ole Miss | own 16 at 5:40 | 12 | 82 | INT | 3–24 |
| Texas | own 3 at 1:38 | 3 | 0 | END OF HALF | 24–3 |
Fourteen for Ole Miss, and the play the first tell warned about. The second-half kickoff flag put Texas at its 12, and on Manning's 22nd dropback by the box's count Purchase sacked him for 23 and Kam Franklin recovered in the end zone, 24–10, the strip-sack the chip on the Texas protection was about. The second tell closed on Brown's 3-yard run at 12:08, 59 yards on the first 15 back carries, 3.9 a carry. Ole Miss's touchdown drive was 80 yards with 40 of them from Texas flags, McDonald's and Phillips's pass interference and a roughing call, and Fields's 6-yard catch made it 24–17. Texas's four possessions in the quarter went fumble, punt, punt, punt, a fourth-and-1 conversion in the last of them, and Fields's 17-yard catch at 0:10 started the tying drive. The number: 21, the Ole Miss points in a row from 24–3.
Ole Miss scored 14 points in the quarter and the momentum flipped. On Texas's first drive, a sack knocked the ball out of Manning's hands and Ole Miss recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown. Then Ole Miss drove 80 yards, almost half of it on Texas penalties, and scored again, 24 to 17. Texas punted on each of its other three possessions.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 12 at 15:00 | 4 | -12 | FUMBLE TD | 24–10 |
| Texas | own 25 at 13:19 | 4 | 18 | PUNT | 24–10 |
| Ole Miss | own 20 at 11:19 | 10 | 80 | TD | 17–24 |
| Texas | own 25 at 6:46 | 3 | 0 | PUNT | 24–17 |
| Ole Miss | own 46 at 4:21 | 3 | 1 | PUNT | 17–24 |
| Texas | own 17 at 3:28 | 7 | 13 | PUNT | 24–17 |
| Ole Miss | own 29 at 0:10 | 4 | 71 | TD | 24–24 |
Twenty for both, and the run that decided it. Fields's 27-yard touchdown after Texas's third pass-interference flag, McDonald's second tied it at 13:57, and Crawford's second interception three snaps later gave Ole Miss the ball at its 20 with the game even; the Texas defense forced a punt, the third tell closing at 3 of 12 on Alexander's 6 on third-and-3 at 12:43. Then Brown for 47 up the middle, Terry for 12 and 19, and Manning from the 1, 31–24 at 8:04. January's block of a 58-yard try and Brown's 12 and 28 on a 3:48 drive put the game two scores away, and Ole Miss's field goal, onside recovery and last drive ended in McDonald's end-zone interception with two seconds left. The board's two WRONG chips on the Texas run game were graded in this quarter: Texas ran 12 times for 121 in it. The number: 47.
Ole Miss tied the game at 24 early in the quarter, and Manning threw his second interception soon after. Texas's defense held, and then Raleek Brown broke a 47-yard run, Terry carried twice to the 1, and Manning scored, 31 to 24; Texas ran for 121 yards in the quarter, which is why our two calls giving Ole Miss the edge against Texas's running game were WRONG. Texas blocked a long Ole Miss field goal, ran almost four minutes off the clock and kicked a field goal, 34 to 24. Ole Miss kicked a field goal, recovered an onside kick and drove to the Texas 24, and Jelani McDonald intercepted the last pass in the end zone.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 25 at 13:57 | 3 | 18 | INT | 24–24 |
| Ole Miss | own 20 at 13:17 | 6 | 19 | PUNT | 24–24 |
| Texas | own 20 at 11:17 | 6 | 80 | TD | 31–24 |
| Ole Miss | own 47 at 7:59 | 7 | 12 | MISSED FG | 24–31 |
| Texas | own 41 at 6:13 | 8 | 44 | FG | 34–24 |
| Ole Miss | own 25 at 2:25 | 6 | 53 | FG | 27–34 |
| Ole Miss | own 35 at 1:20 | 11 | 34 | INT | 27–34 |
Drives and the line score from the committed postgame snapshot (drives.json, games.json); the prose is ours and is graded with everything else. Drives that crossed a quarter break are listed under the quarter they started in: Ole Miss's punt drive that began at 0:55 of the first, and its tying touchdown drive that began at 0:10 of the third (scored at 13:57 of the fourth). The last Ole Miss drive began after an onside kick that the play-by-play puts at the Ole Miss 37. The score after each drive reads the offense first. The snapshot carries 24–17 after the strip-sack drive that opened the third quarter; it was 24–10, corrected here by hand.
Four in 20: Thomas's hurry on the third-and-5 throw at the 5 in the first quarter, Franklin's on a deep incompletion to open the second, Purchase's on the 50-yard touchdown and Thomas's again at 9:51 of the second; Butler's roughing-the-passer flag at 11:01 would make five if it counted, and the count is four whether or not the snaps flags erased are in it. Between the bars, so the tell as written did not fire. Both readings came true in pieces: Manning let it rip at times, Wingo for 50 and 43, and Texas scored 34, more than the 28; and two dropbacks after the window closed, the 22nd by the box's count, was Purchase's 23-yard strip-sack for a Rebel touchdown, the protection chip's one decisive play. PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We drew two lines: two or fewer pressures on Manning's first 20 passing plays would mean Ole Miss's rush was ordinary and Texas would score at least 28, and five or more would mean the Florida problem was back. Ole Miss got four, in between. Texas scored 34, but two passing plays after those 20 came the sack and fumble that Ole Miss recovered for a touchdown.
Fifty-nine yards on the first 15, 3.9 a carry: Brown's 6, 7, 1, 2, 23, minus 3, 6, 4, 2, 4 and 3, Terry's minus 2, 2, 2 for the touchdown and 2 on third-and-1; the 15th was Brown's 3 at 12:08 of the third quarter. A 13-yard Brown run erased by holding at the end of the half would have put it over four. A tenth short of the bar, so the tell as written did not fire, and the read it stood for came true anyway: the Rebel chips at the line were too big, two of them WRONG, and the backs finished 31 for 198, 6.4 a carry, 139 of it after the 15th carry. Texas was 3 of 13 on third down, so the half about staying out of third-and-long did not. PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We said 4 yards a carry or better on Texas's first 15 running-back carries would mean Ole Miss's front was not as good as we said. Texas got 3.9, just short, but Ole Miss's front was not as good as we said, and both of our calls giving it the edge were WRONG: Texas's backs finished at more than 6 a carry. Texas still had plenty of long third downs, converting 3 of 13.
Three of 12: Alexander for 7 on third-and-5 at the end of the first quarter, for 6 on third-and-2 in the third and for 6 on third-and-3 at 12:43 of the fourth, the 12th. The nine misses included Lacy's minus 2 on third-and-1 and his 2 on third-and-4 at the Texas 4, an intentional grounding, and Chambliss's 3-yard scramble on third-and-9; the second play the tell watched for produced 15 yards on four scrambles all game. Ole Miss finished 6 of 18, converting three of the last six, two of them on the final two drives. Four or fewer said the Texas defense is still the Texas defense without Simmons, and it was: 4.8 an attempt, three interceptions. Ole Miss scored 27, two more than 25, but seven of them came on a fumble return and not on a third down. RIGHT.
RIGHT. We said that if Ole Miss converted four or fewer of its first 12 third downs, Texas's defense was still good without Colin Simmons. Ole Miss converted three, and Chambliss's scrambling, the thing we worried about, gained 15 yards all game. Ole Miss did score 27, but seven of those came when its defense returned a fumble.
All twelve pregame pairings, the edge we printed Friday, and what the game said. Chips are quoted verbatim from the scouting report.
| Pairing | Our call | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manning's Passing Game vs. the Rebel Secondary | Edge: Texas, slight | 18 of 30 for 212 (7.1), 1 TD (Wingo 50), 2 INT (both Jalyn Crawford, Q1 at the Texas 33 and Q4 at the Ole Miss 20); Wingo 7-111, Masunas 3-37 | Partly |
| The Texas Line vs. the Rebel Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Ole Miss | 207 on 42 in the box (4.9); 240 on 38 without the sacks and kneel-downs (6.3); 6 of 38 stopped at or behind the line (16%, against a front that stuffs 24.0%); 1 of 1 on fourth down, on a run | Wrong |
| Brown, Cooper and the Backs vs. the Rebel Run Defense | Edge: Ole Miss, slight | Backs 31 for 198 (6.4), 1 TD: Brown 23-157 (long 47), Terry III 8-41 (TD 2); Cooper no carry, one catch for 7 | Wrong |
| Texas Pass Protection vs. the Rebel Pass Rush | Edge: Ole Miss | 2 sacks: Purchase's 23-yard strip-sack recovered by Kam Franklin in the end zone (Q3 13:19), Franklin's 8 (Q3 6:10); 7 hurries in the box, Thomas 3; a roughing-the-passer flag | Right |
| Texas Deep Game vs. Rebel Coverage | Edge: Texas | Wingo's 50-yard touchdown down the middle (Q2) and his 43-yard catch and run (Q1) that set up the first touchdown; Mosley 23; deep incompletions to Coleman (2), Winston and Mosley | Right |
| Chambliss's Passing Game vs. Texas Coverage | Edge: Ole Miss, slight | 25 of 52 for 250 (4.8), 2 TD (Fields 6 and 27), 3 INT (Cryer, Biles at the 2, McDonald in the end zone on the last play); 8 Texas pass breakups; 3 Texas pass-interference flags | Wrong |
| Lacy, Frazier and the Rebel Backs vs. the Texas Run Defense | Edge: Even | Rebel backs 23 for 82 (3.6), no TD: Lacy 16-36 (2.3), Frazier 6-47 (one 34-yarder), Dye 1 for minus 1 | Wrong |
| The Rebel Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Texas, slight | 7 of 28 runs stopped at or behind the line, leaving out the grounding and the fake punt (25%); 3 Texas tackles for loss on runs (Vasek on Lacy's minus 2 on third-and-1, Umeozulu and Kanu on Frazier's minus 4 at the 2, Williams Jr. and Umeozulu on Dye's minus 1) | Right |
| Rebel Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass Rush | Edge: Ole Miss, slight | No Texas sack on 52 throws; one intentional grounding; 6 hurries in the box (Biles 4, Mascoe 1, Umeozulu 1); a roughing-the-passer flag on Texas | Right |
| Alexander, Ray and the Deep Game vs. Texas Coverage | Edge: Texas | One deep completion, Fields's 27-yard touchdown (Q4 13:57), after a pass-interference flag on a deep ball to Alexander; Alexander's 36 was a short throw; deep incompletions to Alexander (3), Cook II, Fields (2) and Ray, breakups by Phillips, McDonald and Littleton | Right |
| Special Teams & Field Position | Edge: Texas, slight | Spetic 2 of 2 (23, 33); Carneiro 2 of 3 (46, 39; 58 blocked by January); Chiumento 5 at 48.4 (long 57), Bird 7 at 43.3; Ole Miss converted a fake punt (Bird 17) and recovered an onside kick; two Texas flags on kickoffs (Okpala) | Partly |
| Coaching & Luck | Edge: Even | Turnovers 3-3; 7 Ole Miss points off them (the fumble return), none for Texas, while Biles's interception at the 2 and McDonald's on the last play took points off the board; fourth downs Texas 1 of 1, Ole Miss 2 of 3; penalties Texas 14 for 134, Ole Miss 8 for 58 | Right |
Reading the grades honestly: six of twelve right, two partly, four wrong, and the four WRONGs are two pairs. The two chips that leaned Ole Miss against the Texas run game were WRONG, by 6.3 a carry; the two that leaned Ole Miss's way or Even on the other side of the run and pass, the Rebel backs and Chambliss against the coverage, were WRONG the other way. All four wrongs went in Texas's favor. What held: the Rebel rush got its one decisive play, the strip-sack touchdown; the Texas deep game hit for 50 and 43; the Texas front won at the line; and the Rebel protection kept a Texas rush without Simmons off Chambliss entirely, which is the one Ole Miss edge on the Texas defense the board got right. The lessons: the Texas run-game chips have been built on three bad weeks and a bar at the 9th percentile, and Saturday says the bar is not the whole story; the chip on the opponent's quarterback against the Texas coverage leaned the opponent's way and the coverage won.
The honest summary: 6 of our 12 matchup calls were right, 2 half right and 4 WRONG, and all four WRONG calls went in Texas's favor. We expected Ole Miss to stop Texas's running game, twice, and Texas ran for 207 yards. We expected Ole Miss's backs and quarterback to hold their own against Texas's defense, and they did not. What we got right: Ole Miss's pass rush made its one big play, Texas's long passing game worked, Texas's defensive front won at the line, and Ole Miss's blockers kept Texas from sacking Chambliss even once.
Our model said Texas by 11.2 (36.6–25.4); the market said Texas by 3 on Friday and Saturday morning. Actual: Texas by 7. Model error 4.2, market error 4.0; both had the winner, and the market takes the week by two tenths. The total was 61 against 53.5 and 54 at the books and the call's 53; the model's 62.0 was the closer total. The model's SP+ inputs were a week stale, as the Game Plan said, carrying neither the Florida loss nor Simmons's ankle; the stale number overshot by 4.2 and the fresh line undershot by 4. Across all fourteen graded rows the market is closer on margin 9 to 5, and 11-3 straight up to the model's 10-4.
Our computer said Texas by 11, the betting line said Texas by 3, and Texas won by 7. Both had the right winner and missed by about 4 in opposite directions; the betting line was closer by a fraction of a point. Over the season the betting line has been closer in nine games and our computer in five, and the betting line has picked the right winner 11 times in 14 to the computer's 10.
The base rate we printed Friday: favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points in the first five weeks were 110-86 straight up since 2023, with a median margin of 3 across all 196; home favorites 52-37. Saturday was one more home favorite's win, by 7. Raw rows: predictions.csv.
The last reports we read before kickoff were the SEC's Friday reports, as The Rebel Walk and the Clarion Ledger relayed them; the recap sweep could open no page from this run's allowlist that carried the 90-minute report. Against the box, for Texas: Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley, both edge rushers and both out, have no stat, and Texas had no sack; Hollywood Smothers, out, has no stat, and his carries went to Brown (23) and Michael Terry III (8); Kaliq Lockett and Jaydon Chatman, out, have none; Derrek Cooper, probable, had one catch for 7 and no carry; Jackson Christian, questionable, is a lineman and cannot be settled from the box. For Ole Miss: the eight outs, Izaiah Hartrup, Edwin Joseph, MJ Preston, Ant Davis Jr., Pat Broomfield, Kervin Johnson Jr., Nascar McCoy and Emanuel Faulkner, have no stat; Terez Davis, the questionable left tackle, and Brycen Sanders, probable, cannot be settled from the box; Kewan Lacy ran 16 times. No player we listed out or doubtful has a meaningful line in the box (tools/availability.py --check), so there is no contradiction to name. In-game injuries: none we could confirm; no dated postgame report could be opened from this run.
The last injury reports we read before the game were the conference's Friday lists. We could not find a copy of the final report, released 90 minutes before kickoff. What happened: Texas played without edge rushers Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley, and did not sack the quarterback once; running back Hollywood Smothers was out, and Raleek Brown and Michael Terry III took his carries; Derrek Cooper, listed as probable, caught one pass and did not carry the ball. None of the eight Ole Miss players listed as out appear in the statistics. The statistics do not show whether the linemen who were listed as questionable played. Nobody listed as out or doubtful showed up in the statistics, so nothing on the injury lists turned out to be wrong.
The cloud run that built this page can open only an allowlist of sites, and none of the official recaps, wire stories, postgame transcripts or highlight videos for this game could be opened and dated from it. Rather than cite what we could not read, this page is built from the box score and the play-by-play alone, and it links nothing it did not open. The postgame quotes and the film will be added when they can be read and checked.
The pregame chatter note said Longhorn spaces were on Manning, the play-calling and a 4-2 team at No. 19, and that nothing in it moved a number on the page. Manning threw for 212 with two interceptions and ran for two touchdowns, Texas ran for 207, and the play-calling question got its answer on the ground. No postgame fan space or column could be opened from this run, so none is quoted here.