We said Texas 36, Mississippi State 15. Texas won 31–3. Right winner, the margin seven points light and the total 17 points heavy: PARTLY. The market had Texas by 21 and was off by 7; the model had Texas by 16.5 and was off by 11.5, the market's week. Texas scored on its first drive, Cam Coleman for 47 and then 14 for the touchdown, and the Texas defense did the rest: seven sacks, three by Rasheem Biles, one of them a strip of AJ Swann that Maraad Watson returned 61 yards for a touchdown with 1:13 left in the half, and 187 yards allowed. Mississippi State's 3 points came on a 28-yard field after Jaray Bledsoe's strip-sack of Arch Manning. The board's two misses were both Mississippi State's way: the Texas line against the Bulldog front, Even on the board, lost at the line, the backs running 19 times for 50; and special teams, Texas slight, went to the Bulldogs on punting and field position, with Ryan Niblett's 84-yard punt-return touchdown erased by a flag.
We wrote down Texas 36, Mississippi State 15. Texas won 31 to 3. We had the right winner, but Texas won by more than we said and far fewer points were scored, so our prediction was PARTLY right. The betting line had Texas by 21 and our computer had Texas by about 16; the betting line was closer. Texas scored a touchdown on its first drive and its defense did the rest: it sacked Mississippi State's quarterbacks seven times, scored a touchdown on a fumble, and gave up one field goal. Where our matchup calls were WRONG: we called the Texas blockers against Mississippi State's defensive line a toss-up, and Mississippi State's line won, holding Texas's running backs to under 3 yards a carry; and we gave Texas a small edge in the kicking game, and Mississippi State punted better and started its drives with better field position.
16 falsifiable claims graded: the score call, three tells, twelve matchup-board edges. The situation reads on the scouting report restated those twelve chips by id and added no claim of their own, so their grades are the chips' grades. Six storylines and the chatter check graded on whether they affected the game or the read. Full grades live in the season ledger (data/2026/season_ledger.csv), with each pregame claim quoted verbatim.
Our confidence first. The 90% and the 63-3. We printed a moneyline chance of about 90% for Texas and a history: since 2023, favorites of 20.5 to 21.5 points in the first five weeks went 63-3, with a median margin of 18, and 25 of the 66 won by more than 21. Texas was one of the 25, by 28. The call's winner was right; its shape was a 36–15 game with 51 points, and it was a 31–3 game with 34. We had the Texas side five points heavy and the Bulldog side 12 points heavy, and the miss on the Bulldog side is the Texas defense.
Our own confidence comes first. We said Texas had about a 90% chance to win, and we printed the history: teams favored by about 21 points this early in a season had won 63 games and lost 3, usually by about 18, and only about two in five won by more than 21. Texas won by 28. We expected 51 points in the game; there were 34, because Mississippi State scored only 3.
The Texas line against the Bulldog front, Even: WRONG, in Mississippi State's favor, and the worst chip on the page. We called two bottom-quarter units a coin, Texas's at the 14th percentile in line yards against a Bulldog front at the 23rd, and leaned on the week before, when Texas ran for 207 against Ole Miss. Texas ran 32 times for 60 in the box; without Manning's five sacks it was 27 for 93, 3.4 a carry, and the backs were 19 for 50, 2.6. Five of the 19 back carries were stopped at or behind the line, 26%, against a front that stuffs 14.6% of the runs it sees. Zakari Tillman had 2.5 tackles for loss and the Bulldogs eight. Texas's longest run by a back was Brown's 11. Ole Miss was the exception, as the second tell's under-3.5 side said.
Our worst miss: we called Texas's blockers against Mississippi State's defensive line a toss-up, and that was WRONG; Mississippi State's line won. Texas's running backs ran 19 times for 50 yards, under 3 yards a carry, and about one carry in four was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, far more often than this defense usually manages. The 207 rushing yards against Ole Miss a week earlier did not carry over.
Special teams and field position, Texas slight: WRONG, in Mississippi State's favor. The punting was the Bulldogs': Ethan Pulliam punted seven times at 48.1 with three inside the 20, and Mac Chiumento six at 38.2 with none, one of them a 23-yarder out of bounds that gave Mississippi State the ball at the Texas 48 late in the third quarter. The average start was Mississippi State's own 33.8 to Texas's own 23.6, part of it the two turnovers. Ryan Niblett returned a punt 84 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter, and an illegal block in the back on Rett Andersen took it back to the Texas 8. Kyle Ferrie's missed 38-yarder and Gianni Spetic's 45-yarder are the case for Texas, and they are not enough to carry the chip.
We gave Texas a small edge in the kicking game, and that was WRONG. Mississippi State's punter averaged 48 yards a punt and Texas's 38, and Mississippi State started its drives about 10 yards farther up the field on average. Texas had a punt returned for a touchdown, but a Texas penalty took it away. Mississippi State did miss a 38-yard field goal.
Five were PARTLY, the call among them. The deep game, Texas slight, was Texas's and then some, four completions of 22 to 47 yards, but we said the coin had Ryan Wingo on it and Wingo caught three for 14; it was Mosley's 42 and 37 and Coleman's 47. Coaching and luck, Even: the coaching half came out even and Texas's penalties fell from 14 to five, but the luck half went Texas's, seven points off the turnovers to three. The first tell came in at four sacks and hurries on Manning's first 20 dropbacks by the play-by-play, between the bars; the box credits Mississippi State a second hurry, Bledsoe's, that the play text does not place, and if it fell inside the 20 the count is five. Texas scored 31, short of the 36, and the protection was the Texas offense's problem, five sacks in all. The third tell came in at 4 of 10, one over the bar, while the read it stood for held: Mississippi State scored 3.
Five of our calls were PARTLY right, including the score. Texas's long passing game worked, but through Emmett Mosley V and Cam Coleman, not Ryan Wingo, the receiver we named. We called coaching and luck even; Texas got the better of the luck, a fumble returned for a touchdown. Mississippi State got to Manning four times in his first 20 passing plays by our count, between our two lines, and five times in the game. Mississippi State converted four of its first 10 third downs, one more than our line, but scored only 3 points.
Texas took four plays to score. Brown ran for 3, DJ Reed and Amaree Williams sacked Manning for 2, and on third-and-9 Cam Coleman, removed from the injury report on Thursday after the shoulder injury against Ole Miss, caught a short throw over the middle and ran 47 yards to the Bulldog 14; Manning hit him again for the 14-yard touchdown, 7–0 at 12:59 of the first. AJ Swann started at quarterback for Mississippi State with Kamario Taylor out for the season, and the Bulldogs moved the ball in short pieces: a 12-play drive late in the first quarter reached the Texas 20 before Ferrie missed from 38. Texas's 13-play answer was a Spetic 45-yarder, 10–0. Niblett's 84-yard punt-return touchdown came back on the illegal block, and the drive that followed started at the Texas 8 and went backward; Chiumento's 36-yard punt was fair-caught at the Texas 46. Four snaps later, on second-and-10, Biles came free, sacked Swann and knocked the ball out, and Watson ran it back 61 yards, 17–0 with 1:13 left in the half. Swann did not return (Burnt Orange Nation, Oct 31); Puckett took the last drive and was sacked twice. The third quarter brought the night's one Bulldog score: four snaps into Texas's first drive of the half Tillman sacked Manning for 8 and Bledsoe sacked him for 7 and knocked the ball loose, Tillman recovering at the Texas 28, and the Bulldogs, helped by Bothwell's 10-yard run and set back by Biles's 15-yard sack of Evans III on a trick-play dropback, kicked a 30-yarder, 17–3 at 8:58. Texas answered at once, Mosley for 37, Brown for 22 on a deep ball and the 4-yard touchdown catch on third-and-4, 24–3. The Bulldogs' next two drives ended in Cryer's sack on third-and-9 and a turnover on downs at the Texas 40. Texas's last touchdown came on the series the run game finally found: Terry III for 8, 3 and 4, Cooper for 5, and on third-and-1 at the Bulldog 42 Manning threw deep to Mosley for the score, 31–3 at 7:56. Manning finished 16 of 20 for 220 and three touchdowns with no interception, and was sacked five times. Five Texas players did not finish the game: Coleman, Wingo, Hollywood Smothers, and the defensive backs Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips; Sarkisian said "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment" (SI Texas, Oct 31).
Texas scored a touchdown on the game's first drive: Cam Coleman caught a short pass and ran 47 yards on third down, then caught a 14-yard touchdown pass. Mississippi State started AJ Swann at quarterback and drove into Texas territory late in the first quarter but missed a field goal. Texas kicked a 45-yard field goal, 10 to 0. Ryan Niblett returned a punt 84 yards for a touchdown, but a Texas penalty wiped it out. Just before halftime Rasheem Biles sacked Swann and knocked the ball loose, and defensive lineman Maraad Watson returned it 61 yards for a touchdown, 17 to 0. Swann did not return. In the third quarter Mississippi State sacked Arch Manning twice in a row, the second time forcing a fumble, and kicked a field goal, 17 to 3; those were its only points. Texas answered right away: Emmett Mosley V caught a 37-yard pass and Raleek Brown caught a 4-yard touchdown pass, 24 to 3. In the fourth quarter Texas ran four straight times for 20 yards and Manning threw a 42-yard touchdown pass to Mosley, 31 to 3. Manning completed 16 of 20 passes for three touchdowns and was sacked five times. Five Texas players left with injuries and did not return: receivers Coleman and Ryan Wingo, running back Hollywood Smothers, and defensive backs Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 187 | 280 |
| Passing / rushing | 119 / 68 | 220 / 60 |
| Completions, attempts (a throw) | 15 of 25 (4.8) | 17 of 21 (10.5; Manning 16 of 20, 11.0) |
| Rushing, carries (a carry) | 41 (1.7; seven sacks counted as runs) | 32 (1.9; five sacks counted as runs) |
| Sacks made · tackles for loss | 5 · 8 | 7 · 9 |
| First downs | 12 | 13 |
| Third downs · fourth downs | 6 of 18 · 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 · none |
| Turnovers | 1 (a fumble returned for a touchdown) | 1 (a fumble on a sack) |
| Penalties | 6 for 50 | 5 for 42 |
| Time of possession | 32:28 | 27:32 |
| The board's decisive gap | The Texas pass rush against the Bulldog protection, which the board gave Texas only slightly: seven sacks, a strip returned for a touchdown, and a quarterback lost before halftime | |
Next is Missouri, on the road. Texas plays at Missouri's Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov 7, kickoff TBD. The Game Plan comes Monday. Two things carry to it: a protection that gave up five sacks to a rush at the 30th percentile, and a list of five players who did not finish Saturday, two of them Coleman and Wingo.
Next Saturday, Texas plays at Missouri. The game is Nov 7, with the kickoff time not yet set; our scouting report comes Monday. Two things carry over: Texas's blockers let Manning get sacked five times by a defense that usually does not get there, and five Texas players, including receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, left the game hurt.
| Line score | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Texas | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Seven points on the first drive, and then nothing for either side. Raleek Brown ran for 3, DJ Reed and Amaree Williams sacked Arch Manning for 2, and on third-and-9 Cam Coleman, back from the shoulder, caught a short throw over the middle and ran 47 yards to the Bulldog 14; two snaps later he caught the 14-yard touchdown, 7–0 at 12:59. Texas's next two drives went 1 and 5 yards and punted. AJ Swann, not Parker Puckett, started for Mississippi State, completing short throws on a 12-play drive that carried into the second quarter. The third tell stood at 2 of 4 after the quarter, Anthony Evans III's 11 on third-and-5 and Fluff Bothwell's 8 on third-and-6 the conversions. The number: 47.
Texas scored on its first drive: after a sack, Cam Coleman caught a short pass and ran 47 yards on third down, then caught a 14-yard touchdown pass, 7 to 0. Texas punted on its next two drives. Mississippi State started AJ Swann at quarterback and drove into Texas territory at the end of the quarter.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 38 at 14:54 | 4 | 62 | TD | 7–0 |
| Mississippi State | own 25 at 12:59 | 4 | 19 | PUNT | 0–7 |
| Texas | own 20 at 10:13 | 3 | 1 | PUNT | 7–0 |
| Mississippi State | own 35 at 8:46 | 6 | 13 | PUNT | 0–7 |
| Texas | own 20 at 4:47 | 3 | 5 | PUNT | 7–0 |
| Mississippi State | own 30 at 3:41 | 12 | 50 | MISSED FG | 0–7 |
Ten more for Texas, and the play that ended the game as a contest. Kyle Ferrie missed from 38 to finish the Bulldogs' 12-play drive. Texas answered with 13 plays and 44 yards, Manning's 10-yard run on third-and-9 and a personal foul on Bralan Womack carrying it into Bulldog territory, and Gianni Spetic made a 45-yarder, 10–0 at 5:41. Ryan Niblett returned the next punt 84 yards for a touchdown that an illegal block in the back on Rett Andersen erased, and Texas started at its own 8 instead and punted from its own 10. Mississippi State took over at the Texas 46, and on second-and-10 Rasheem Biles sacked Swann and knocked the ball loose; Maraad Watson, a defensive lineman, picked it up and ran 61 yards for a touchdown, 17–0 at 1:13. Swann did not return; Puckett played the last drive and was sacked twice. The third tell was at 4 of 9 at the half, Bothwell converting two third-and-1s. The number: 61.
Mississippi State missed a field goal, and Texas kicked one from 45 yards, 10 to 0. Ryan Niblett returned a punt 84 yards for a touchdown, but a Texas penalty took it away. Then Rasheem Biles sacked Swann and knocked the ball out, and defensive lineman Maraad Watson ran it back 61 yards for a touchdown, 17 to 0 at halftime. Swann did not come back; Parker Puckett played quarterback the rest of the way.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 20 at 12:24 | 13 | 44 | FG | 10–0 |
| Mississippi State | own 25 at 5:41 | 6 | 14 | PUNT | 0–10 |
| Texas | own 8 at 2:49 | 3 | -6 | PUNT | 10–0 |
| Mississippi State | Texas 46 at 1:40 | 4 | 7 | FUMBLE TD | 0–17 |
| Mississippi State | own 25 at 1:13 | 5 | 15 | END OF HALF | 0–17 |
Seven for each side, and the first tell's worst stretch. Puckett went three-and-out, and on Texas's first drive Zakari Tillman sacked Manning for 8 and on the next snap Jaray Bledsoe sacked him again and knocked the ball out; Tillman recovered at the Texas 28. The Bulldogs got as far as the Texas 12, Biles sacking Evans III for 15 on a trick-play dropback, and settled for Ferrie's 30-yarder, 17–3 at 8:58: the only points they scored, and the protection chip's whole case in one series. Texas answered in seven plays: Emmett Mosley V for 37 down the left side, Brown for 22 on a catch, and Brown again on third-and-4 from the 4, 24–3 at 5:35. Justin Cryer sacked Puckett twice on the next drive, once erased by his own face-mask flag. Dealyn Evans sacked Manning on third-and-7, Mac Chiumento's punt went 23 yards out of bounds, and the Bulldogs got the ball at the Texas 48 and turned it over on downs at the 40 early in the fourth. Brown's touchdown was Texas's first in a third quarter since the opener (SI Texas, Oct 31). The number: 28, the Texas yard line where the Bulldogs' only scoring drive began.
Texas fumbled when Manning was sacked, and Mississippi State turned it into a field goal, 17 to 3, its only points of the night. Texas answered with a touchdown drive: Emmett Mosley V caught a 37-yard pass, Raleek Brown caught a 22-yard pass and then a 4-yard touchdown, 24 to 3. Texas's pass rush sacked Puckett once more, with a second sack erased by a Texas penalty, and Mississippi State turned the ball over on downs early in the fourth quarter.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | own 25 at 15:00 | 3 | 0 | PUNT | 0–17 |
| Texas | own 21 at 13:43 | 5 | 7 | FUMBLE | 17–0 |
| Mississippi State | Texas 28 at 11:45 | 7 | 16 | FG | 3–17 |
| Texas | own 25 at 8:58 | 7 | 75 | TD | 24–3 |
| Mississippi State | own 25 at 5:35 | 3 | 7 | PUNT | 3–24 |
| Texas | own 18 at 3:52 | 5 | 7 | PUNT | 24–3 |
| Mississippi State | Texas 48 at 0:40 | 4 | 8 | DOWNS | 3–24 |
Seven more, all on the drive the second tell said Texas needed. After Will Whitson's sack ended a three-and-out and Biles's third sack ended the Bulldogs' answer, Michael Terry III ran for 8, 3 and 4 and Derrek Cooper for 5, and on third-and-1 at the Bulldog 42 Manning threw deep to Mosley for the 42-yard touchdown, 31–3 at 7:56. Colton Vasek's sack on third-and-10 ended the Bulldogs' last real drive at midfield, and Karle Lacey Jr. took a snap at quarterback on the last Texas series. The second tell closed on Terry III's 3 at 9:43, 36 yards on the first 15 back carries. The number: 42.
Texas ran the ball four straight times for 20 yards, then Manning threw a 42-yard touchdown pass to Mosley, 31 to 3. Texas's defense sacked the quarterback twice more, and Mississippi State's last drives went nowhere.
| Offense | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | own 40 at 14:25 | 3 | -2 | PUNT | 24–3 |
| Mississippi State | own 20 at 12:19 | 3 | 0 | PUNT | 3–24 |
| Texas | own 38 at 10:12 | 5 | 62 | TD | 31–3 |
| Mississippi State | own 25 at 7:56 | 9 | 25 | PUNT | 3–31 |
| Texas | own 12 at 3:44 | 3 | 5 | PUNT | 31–3 |
| Mississippi State | own 26 at 1:38 | 3 | 8 | END OF GAME | 3–31 |
Drives and the line score from the committed postgame snapshot (drives.json, games.json); the prose is ours and is graded with everything else. Drives that crossed a quarter break are listed under the quarter they started in. The snapshot counts the fumble-return drive as minus 54 yards; it is 7 yards of offense before the fumble, corrected by hand; and it leaves the result of the last Mississippi State drive, which ran out the clock, uncategorized, printed here as END OF GAME. The score after each drive reads the offense first.
Four in 20 by the play-by-play: Reed and Amaree Williams's sack on the second snap of the game, Tanner Johnson's hurry on a second-down incompletion in the second quarter, and Tillman's and Bledsoe's back-to-back sacks early in the third, the second a strip that became the Bulldogs' field goal. The box credits Mississippi State with a second hurry, Bledsoe's, that the play text does not place; if it came inside the first 20 the count is five. The 20th dropback came at 2:39 of the third quarter. Between the bars by the count we can show, so the tell as written did not fire cleanly, and both halves came partly true: the line without Goosby gave up five sacks in 25 dropbacks, and Texas scored 31, short of 36; but the passing game around the sacks was 16 of 20 for 220. PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We drew two lines: two or fewer sacks and hurries on Manning's first 20 passing plays would mean Texas's line was fine without Trevor Goosby, and five or more would mean Mississippi State's pass rush was the story. We count four, in between, with a fifth possible that the play-by-play does not place. Mississippi State sacked Manning five times in all, and one of them, a fumble, led to its only points; Texas scored 31, short of the 36 we predicted.
Thirty-six yards on the first 15, 2.4 a carry: Brown's 3, 0, 11, 2, 2, 2, 7 and 3, Hollywood Smothers's minus 1, minus 2, minus 3 and 0, and Terry III's 1, 8 and 3; the 15th was Terry III's 3 at 9:43 of the fourth. A Smothers 5 erased by an illegal-formation flag is left out. Under 3.5, and the second half of the sentence came true too: Manning was sacked once on his first 13 dropbacks and four times on his last 12. RIGHT.
RIGHT. We said that if Texas's running backs averaged under 3.5 yards over their first 15 carries, the Ole Miss game was the exception and the pressure on Manning would get worse as the game went on. They averaged 2.4, and Manning was sacked once in his first 13 passing plays and four times in his last 12.
Four of 10: Evans III for 11 on third-and-5 and Bothwell for 8 on third-and-6 in the first quarter, and Bothwell on two third-and-1s in the second. The 10th was Puckett's 5-yard run on third-and-10 to open the third quarter. One over the three-or-fewer bar and one under the five-or-more, so the tell as written did not fire, and the read it stood for held without it: the Texas defense was the best unit on the field, seven sacks and 187 yards, and 15 points was far more than the Bulldogs needed to be held under. Mississippi State finished 6 of 18. PARTLY.
PARTLY right. We said three or fewer conversions in Mississippi State's first 10 third downs would mean Texas's defense was still the best unit on the field without Colin Simmons. Mississippi State converted four, one more than our line. But the defense was clearly the best unit on the field: it allowed 3 points.
All twelve pregame pairings, the edge we printed Monday, and what the game said. Chips are quoted verbatim from the scouting report.
| Pairing | Our call | What happened | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manning's Passing Game vs. the Bulldog Secondary | Edge: Texas, slight | 16 of 20 for 220 (11.0), 3 TD (Coleman 14, Brown 4, Mosley 42), no interception; Mosley 4-98, Coleman 2-61, Brown 2-26 | Right |
| The Texas Line vs. the Bulldog Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Even | 60 on 32 in the box; 93 on 27 without the five sacks (3.4); 5 of 19 back carries stopped at or behind the line (26%, against a front that stuffs 14.6%); 8 Bulldog tackles for loss | Wrong |
| Brown, Terry and the Backs vs. the Bulldog Run Defense | Edge: Mississippi State, slight | Backs 19 for 50 (2.6), no rushing touchdown: Brown 8-30, Terry III 4-16, Smothers 4 for minus 6, Cooper 1-5, Simon 2-5 | Right |
| Texas Pass Protection vs. the Bulldog Pass Rush | Edge: Mississippi State | 5 sacks on 25 dropbacks (Reed and Amaree Williams, Tillman, Bledsoe's strip at the Texas 28, Dealyn Evans, Whitson); 2 hurries in the box; a false start on Cojoe | Right |
| Texas Deep Game vs. Bulldog Coverage | Edge: Texas, slight | Completions of 47 (Coleman), 42 for a touchdown and 37 (Mosley), and 22 (Brown); Wingo 3 for 14, long 8 | Partly |
| Taylor or Puckett vs. Texas Coverage | Edge: Texas | Taylor did not play; Swann started, 12 of 15 for 97, and lost the fumble returned for a touchdown; Puckett 3 of 10 for 22; no touchdown pass, long completion 23 | Right |
| Bothwell and the Bulldog Backs vs. the Texas Run Defense | Edge: Texas | Bulldog backs 26 for 76 (2.9), no touchdown: Bothwell 17-49 (long 11), Hill 5-15, Wilson 4-12 | Right |
| The Bulldog Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking) | Edge: Texas | 41 for 68 in the box (1.7); 34 for 114 without the seven sacks (3.4); 9 Texas tackles for loss; no Bulldog rushing touchdown | Right |
| Bulldog Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass Rush | Edge: Texas, slight | 7 sacks on 32 dropbacks (Biles 3, Vasek, Umeozulu, Cryer, Justus Terry), an eighth erased by Cryer's face-mask flag; Biles's strip of Swann returned for a touchdown | Right |
| Evans, Magee and the Deep Game vs. Texas Coverage | Edge: Texas | Long completion 23 (Marquis Johnson); Evans III 3-19, Magee 1-16; a deep ball to Evans III broken up by Williams Jr. | Right |
| Special Teams & Field Position | Edge: Texas, slight | Spetic 1 of 1 (45); Ferrie 1 of 2 (30; 38 missed); Pulliam 7 at 48.1, 3 inside the 20; Chiumento 6 at 38.2, none inside the 20, one 23-yarder; Niblett's 84-yard return erased by a flag; average start Mississippi State own 33.8, Texas own 23.6 | Wrong |
| Coaching & Luck | Edge: Even | Turnovers 1-1: 7 Texas points off them, 3 Mississippi State; fourth downs Mississippi State 0 of 1; penalties Texas 5 for 42, Mississippi State 6 for 50 | Partly |
Reading the grades honestly: eight of twelve right, two partly, two wrong, and the two WRONGs went Mississippi State's way, the run blocking and the kicking game. Everything the board said about the Texas defense held, and held bigger than printed: the slight edge on the Texas rush became seven sacks and a touchdown, and the Bulldog offense finished with 187 yards. On the Texas offense the board's two Bulldog chips, the protection and the backs, were both RIGHT, and the Even on the line between them should have been a third. The lesson for the template: one big rushing day against a good front (207 against Ole Miss) moved a chip that a season of numbers had right.
The honest summary: 8 of our 12 matchup calls were right, 2 half right and 2 WRONG, and both WRONG calls went Mississippi State's way. Everything we said about Texas's defense held, and by more than we said. On Texas's offense, we were right that Mississippi State would pressure Manning and slow down the running backs, and we should have said the same about the blocking up front.
Our model said Texas by 16.5 (37.0–20.5); the market said Texas by 21 on Monday and 20.5 by Friday. Actual: Texas by 28. Model error 11.5, market error 7 on Monday's number; both had the winner, and the market takes the week. The model's SP+ ratings could not see Taylor's foot, as the Game Plan said, and its 20.5 for the Bulldogs missed by 17.5. The total was 34 against 50.5 at both books and the call's 51; the model's 57.6 was further off. Across all fifteen graded rows the market is closer on margin 10 to 5, and 12-3 straight up to the model's 11-4.
Our computer said Texas by about 16, the betting line said Texas by 21, and Texas won by 28. Both had the right winner; the betting line was closer, by four and a half points. Over the season the betting line has been closer in ten games and our computer in five, and the betting line has picked the right winner 12 times in 15 to the computer's 11.
The base rate we printed Monday: favorites of 20.5 to 21.5 points in the first five weeks were 63-3 straight up since 2023, with a median margin of 18 across all 66, and 25 won by more than 21. Saturday was one of the 25. Raw rows: predictions.csv.
The last reports we read before kickoff were the SEC's Wednesday to Friday reports as Burnt Orange Nation relayed them (Oct 29 and 30); no 90-minute report could be opened. Against the box, for Texas: Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley, both edge rushers and both out, have no stat, and Texas had seven sacks without them; Trevor Goosby, the left tackle, out for the season, cannot be settled from the box, and Andre Cojoe's false start is the one line it shows; Cam Coleman, off the report Thursday, caught two for 61 and the first touchdown and did not finish; Hollywood Smothers, off the report Thursday, ran four times for minus 6 and did not finish (the box spells him Daylan; the roster says Hollywood); Derrek Cooper, our questionable, ran once for 5; Kaliq Lockett, off the report Friday, has no stat. For Mississippi State: Kamario Taylor, out for the season, has no stat; AJ Swann started and Parker Puckett finished. No player we listed out or doubtful has a meaningful line in the box (tools/availability.py --check), so there is no contradiction to name. In-game: Sarkisian named five Texas players who "didn't finish the game," Graceson Littleton, Coleman, Kade Phillips, Smothers and Ryan Wingo, and said "The severity of all those guys is unknown at the moment" (SI Texas, Oct 31); Burnt Orange Nation (Oct 31) has Swann hurt on Biles's strip-sack and Fluff Bothwell hurt in the fourth quarter.
The last injury reports we read before the game were the conference's lists from Wednesday to Friday. What happened: Texas played without edge rushers Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley and still sacked the quarterback seven times; receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers, both off the injury report by Thursday, played and then left hurt; Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor, out for the season, did not play. Nobody listed as out or doubtful showed up in the statistics, so nothing on the injury lists turned out to be wrong. Five Texas players left the game and did not return: Graceson Littleton, Cam Coleman, Kade Phillips, Hollywood Smothers and Ryan Wingo. Sarkisian said how badly they are hurt is not yet known.
Postgame pieces we opened and dated, all from Texas's beat: Burnt Orange Nation's final-score story and its three takeaways (both Oct 31, final score and injuries, three things we learned), and SI's Texas coverage (Oct 31, immediate takeaways, the injury updates, Coleman's night). The official Texas recap, the postgame press conference and the highlight video were not yet readable from here, and Mississippi State's postgame words live on sites outside this page's reach; we link nothing we did not open. Where the beat and the play-by-play differ on a number (Watson's return is 57 yards in one account and 61 in another), the play-by-play is printed.
The pregame chatter note said Longhorn spaces were on Goosby's injury and the jump to No. 11, with the special teams and the penalties the complaint, and that nothing in it moved a number on the page. Half of the complaint held on the field: Chiumento averaged 38.2 a punt and Niblett's return touchdown came back on a flag, while the penalties fell to five for 42. Burnt Orange Nation's postgame takeaways (Oct 31) went to the run game and the sacks on Manning, and SI (Oct 31) to Mosley, Biles's three sacks and the injury list.