The Saturday DispatchTexas · Week 9 · The Scouting Report
Texas · Week 9 · The Scouting Report Game week of Oct 26–31 · published Oct 26

The Scouting Report: Texas Without Trevor Goosby and Colin Simmons, Probably Without Cam Coleman, Meets a Mississippi State Team That May Be Without Kamario Taylor, and the Line Says Three Touchdowns

Texas is 5-2 and No. 11 in both polls after Texas 34, Ole Miss 27, a 24–3 halftime lead, 21 straight Rebel points and Raleek Brown's 157 yards on the way back out. It cost Texas its left tackle: Trevor Goosby is out for the season with a knee injury (Pete Thamel, as relayed by Burnt Orange Nation and SI), Cam Coleman left after the first play of the third quarter with a shoulder injury, and Sarkisian said of the two, "Obviously, neither of them look very good." Colin Simmons and Hollywood Smothers missed the game and are not back yet. Mississippi State is 4-3 with three straight losses, 15 points in its last two games, and a quarterback question: Kamario Taylor, 9.2 an attempt with 17 touchdowns, re-aggravated his right foot against Oklahoma and left before halftime. Both books have Texas at −21 on 50.5 and 51.5. The board gives Texas eight chips, Mississippi State two, with two Even, and both Bulldog chips are on the Texas offense: the protection, already at the 7th percentile in havoc allowed and now without Goosby, and the backs against a run defense at the 68th, which Saturday's 198 yards argue with.

Everything we think about this game. Texas is 5-2 and ranked No. 11 after beating Ole Miss 34 to 27: up 24 to 3 at halftime, tied early in the fourth quarter, and won by running the ball, with 157 yards from Raleek Brown. It cost Texas its best blocker: left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season with a knee injury, receiver Cam Coleman left in the third quarter with a shoulder injury, and Sarkisian said of the two, "Obviously, neither of them look very good." Colin Simmons and running back Hollywood Smothers missed the game and are not back yet. Mississippi State is 4-3, has lost three straight, has scored 15 points in its last two games, and may not have its starting quarterback: Kamario Taylor, who averages over 9 yards a throw with 17 touchdown passes, hurt his right foot again against Oklahoma and left before halftime. The people betting on the game have Texas by 21. We give Texas eight of the twelve matchups, Mississippi State two and call two toss-ups, and both of Mississippi State's are against the Texas offense: the blocking in front of Arch Manning, already among the worst in the country at keeping defenders out of the backfield and now without Goosby, and the running backs against a better-than-average run defense.

Sat, Oct 31 · 6:30 PM CT · ESPN (Texas Athletics lists ABC or ESPN) DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin Line (Monday, Oct 26): Texas −21 at DraftKings and −21 at Bovada, a consensus of 21 (DraftKings opened −20.5, Bovada −21) · over/under 50.5 at DraftKings and 51.5 at Bovada (both opened 50.5) Series: Texas leads 4-2 in our data service's count · Texas has won the last three · last meeting Texas 45, Mississippi State 38 in overtime (Oct 25, 2025, Starkville)
The Call · made Oct 26, on Monday's lines, and left alonegraded Sunday
Texas 36
the call
Mississippi State 15
their side
Texas −21
the betting line, Monday
Texas by 16.5
our computer model

Why this number: The 36–15 call rides the market, frozen on Monday's lines. DraftKings opened Texas at −20.5 and sits at −21; Bovada opened and sits at −21, so the consensus is 21. The totals are 50.5 at DraftKings and 51.5 at Bovada, both opened at 50.5, a consensus of 51, so 21 points of margin on 51 points of scoring splits to 36 and 15 exactly. The moneylines work out to about a 90% chance Texas wins at both books with the books' margin taken out. Our computer model, built on SP+ ratings with 2.5 points for the home field, says Texas 37.0–20.5, Texas by 16.5, four and a half points less Texas than the line on a total six and a half higher; its ratings have Texas at +21.1 (8th) and Mississippi State at +7.3 (47th), and they cannot see a quarterback's foot or a left tackle's knee. We print the model so it can be graded, not so anyone should bet it; on margin the market leads it 9 to 5 this season, and straight up the market is 11-3 to the model's 10-4. The history, from the first five weeks because that is the backtest we hold: since 2023, favorites of 20.5 to 21.5 points are 63-3 straight up, and the median margin across all 66 of those games is 18; 25 won by more than 21, five by exactly 21 and 36 by less, and the 52 played by a home favorite went 50-2. So the call's winner is close to safe and its margin is the honest question. What makes this number wrong in Texas's favor: if Taylor cannot play, Mississippi State's offense is the one that scored 0 at LSU and 15 against Oklahoma with Parker Puckett, and its defense allows success on 44.1% of plays (23rd percentile) and pass success at the 17th. What makes it wrong in Mississippi State's favor: Texas's protection allows havoc at the 7th percentile with Goosby, Andre Cojoe gave up the strip-sack touchdown in his place, Texas is minus 3 in turnover margin, and Texas had 14 penalties for 134 yards on Saturday. A 21-point favorite wins about 19 games in 20; it covers about two in five.

Why we picked this score: The people betting on this game have Texas as a 21-point favorite, and we wrote the score down from Monday's betting lines. One book opened Texas by 20.5 and moved to 21; the other opened and sits at 21. Those same people expect about 51 points in the game, which splits exactly to Texas 36, Mississippi State 15. The betting odds give Texas about a 90% chance to win at both books, once the books' built-in margin is taken out. Our own computer says Texas by about 16, Texas 37, Mississippi State 21, about four points less than the betting line; it rates Texas about the 8th-best team in the country and Mississippi State about 47th, and it cannot see injuries. We print the computer's number so you can see it, but the betting line has been the better guide this season (closer to the final margin nine times to five, and right about the winner 11 times in 14 to the computer's 10), so the line is what we follow. The history: since 2023, in the first five weeks of a season, teams favored by about 21 points have won 63 games and lost 3, and the typical final margin is 18; only about two in five won by more than 21. So we are close to sure about the winner and much less sure about the margin. How this goes better for Texas: if Taylor cannot play, Mississippi State's offense is the one that scored 0 at LSU and 15 against Oklahoma with a backup at quarterback, and its defense lets offenses stay on schedule more than most and gives up useful throws more than most. How it goes better for Mississippi State: Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost any line in the country even with Goosby, his backup gave up the fumble that Ole Miss returned for a touchdown, Texas has given the ball away three more times than it has taken it, and it was flagged 14 times for 134 yards on Saturday.

Three Tells, Measured Early

  1. Sacks and hurries on Manning over his first 20 dropbacks. Texas's protection allows havoc on 18.3% of plays, the 7th percentile, and has given up 19 sacks in seven games, two to Ole Miss, one of them Blake Purchase's strip past Andre Cojoe that Ole Miss recovered in the end zone (Burnt Orange Nation); Cojoe, who finished Saturday there, is the likely left tackle, and Jordan Coleman, OL, is the other name (SI Texas). The Bulldog front seven creates havoc at the 30th percentile with 16 sacks, and only one against Oklahoma (Jaray Bledsoe leads with 2.5; Will Whitson, Tyler Lockhart and Marcus Williams have two each). Two or fewer in 20 says the line without Goosby is fine against an ordinary rush and 36 is there; five or more says Mississippi State's big chip is the game, and 36 is too many.The first sign is how often Mississippi State gets to Arch Manning on his first 20 passing plays, counting sacks and hurries together. Texas's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than almost any line in the country and have allowed 19 sacks in seven games; Ole Miss's touchdown on a fumble came when Blake Purchase ran past Andre Cojoe, who replaced Trevor Goosby and is the likely left tackle now. Mississippi State's defense gets into the backfield less than most and had one sack against Oklahoma. Two or fewer in 20 says the Texas line without Goosby can handle an ordinary pass rush and 36 points is there; five or more says the blocking is the story of the night, and 36 points is too many.
  2. Texas's first 15 carries by a running back. Texas rushing value sits at the 19th percentile and its line yards at the 14th, but against Ole Miss the backs ran 31 times for 198, Brown 23 for 157, his first 100-yard game this season, Michael Terry III 8 for 41; Sarkisian: "you need to get the number of carries to make that happen" (SI Texas). The Bulldog front stuffs 14.6% of runs, the 12th percentile, allows 3.14 line yards (23rd) and 3.7 a carry, but its second level is at the 89th. Five yards a carry or better over 15 says Saturday was the line finding itself and Texas can stay out of passing downs, which is the best protection Cojoe can have; under 3.5 says Saturday was the exception and the first tell gets worse by the series.The second sign is how Texas's running backs do on their first 15 carries. Texas's running game has been in the bottom fifth of the country this season, but against Ole Miss its backs ran 31 times for 198 yards, Raleek Brown 157 of them, his first 100-yard game this year; Sarkisian said afterward that to run like that, "you need to get the number of carries to make that happen." Mississippi State's front rarely stops runs at the line, though its linebackers clean up well. Five yards a carry or better over 15 says last Saturday was real and Texas can avoid obvious passing downs, which protects its new left tackle; under 3.5 says last Saturday was the exception, and the first sign gets worse every series.
  3. Mississippi State's first 10 third downs. The Bulldogs convert 41.6% (37 of 89) on the season, but they were 1 of 11 against Oklahoma with Taylor out before halftime; Texas allows 33.3% (35 of 105) and success on 34.4% of plays, the 94th percentile, and held Ole Miss to 6 of 18. Three or fewer of 10 says the Texas defense without Simmons is still the best unit on the field and 15 points is plenty for the Bulldog side; five or more says whoever is at quarterback can extend drives, and 15 is not enough.The third sign is how many of Mississippi State's first 10 third downs it converts. Mississippi State converts about four in ten on the season, but it converted 1 of 11 against Oklahoma after its starting quarterback left; Texas's defense allows about one in three and is among the best in the country at stopping plays, and it held Ole Miss to 6 of 18. Three or fewer of 10 says the Texas defense is still itself without Simmons and 15 points is plenty for Mississippi State's side; five or more says whoever plays quarterback can keep drives going, and 15 points is not enough.
The words we use
The words we use
The call is the final score we are predicting. We write it down before the game and leave it alone, the way you would write your guess on a napkin before kickoff and not touch it after.
The market is the betting line, which is the number of points the people wagering real money expect the favorite to win by. Those people have been better at this than our computer so far, so our call leans on their number.
The model is our computer's own guess at the score, built from the season's numbers. We print it next to the betting line so you can see when the two agree and when they do not.
Tells are three early signs to watch in the first stretch of the game. If they show up, the game is going the way we said; if they do not, we were probably wrong, and you will know it before we do.
Edges are our answer, one matchup at a time, to the question of which team has the better side of it.
Graded means that on Sunday we go back over everything we said and mark each piece right, partly right, or wrong.

The Bottom Line

Texas by three touchdowns, and the shape of it is a Texas defense that is the best unit on the field against a Mississippi State offense that may be on its backup quarterback, and a Texas line without its left tackle against an ordinary Bulldog rush. The Bulldog offense was a real one with Taylor: 104 of 159 for 1,460, 9.2 an attempt, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, Anthony Evans III 53 catches for 647 and five touchdowns, Fluff Bothwell 514 yards at 5.6 a carry, success at the 69th percentile. Without him it has been Puckett's: 16 of 26 for 121 at LSU in a 31–0 loss, 17 of 24 for 158 with a touchdown, an interception and a fumble near the goal line against Oklahoma (SI Mississippi State). Lebby on Saturday: "we'll know a lot more tomorrow, we'll know more Monday." The Bulldog defense is the soft side: success allowed at the 23rd percentile, pass success allowed at the 17th, 3.81 points a scoring chance at the 30th, though it allows few explosive plays (84th). Texas's defense allows success at the 94th percentile and 2.65 points a scoring chance at the 91st, and held Ole Miss to 138 yards in the first half (Texas Athletics). Texas's offense is the question it has been all year, value at the 20th percentile and havoc allowed at the 7th, and now without Goosby and probably Coleman; it ran for 207 on Saturday and threw two interceptions. Texas is No. 11 in both polls; Mississippi State is unranked.

We think Texas wins by about three touchdowns, and the shape of it is Texas's defense, the best unit on the field, against a Mississippi State offense that may be on its backup quarterback, and Texas blockers without their left tackle against an ordinary Mississippi State pass rush. Mississippi State's offense was a good one with Kamario Taylor: he completes about two of every three passes at over 9 yards a throw with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, receiver Anthony Evans III has 647 yards, and running back Fluff Bothwell averages almost 6 yards a carry. Without Taylor it has been Parker Puckett's: 121 passing yards in a 31 to 0 loss at LSU, 158 with a touchdown, an interception and a fumble near the goal line against Oklahoma. Its coach said Saturday they would "know more Monday." Mississippi State's defense is the soft side: it lets offenses stay on schedule more than most and gives up useful throws more than most, though it rarely gives up long plays. Texas's defense is among the best in the country and held Ole Miss to 138 yards in the first half. Texas's offense is still the question: it is in the bottom fifth of the country in what it gets from each play, its blockers let defenders through more than almost anyone, and now it is without Goosby and probably Coleman; it ran for 207 yards on Saturday and threw two interceptions. Texas is ranked No. 11 in both polls; Mississippi State is unranked.

Common opponent: Oklahoma. Oklahoma beat Texas 27–24 in Dallas on Oct 10 and Mississippi State 23–15 in Starkville on Oct 24. Pace: Texas has run 471 offensive plays in seven games, 67.3 a game, Mississippi State 487, 69.6; Texas has held the ball 30:24 a game, Mississippi State 27:50. Last year's game: Mississippi State led 31–14 after three quarters in Starkville, and Texas scored 24 in the fourth and won 45–38 in overtime (the committed 2025 games file). Ratings in the table and the model are SP+ as published in the data leg's Sunday night pull.

What success looks like for Texas

  1. Run it first, the way Saturday ended. Texas's backs ran 31 for 198 against a front that stuffs 24.0% of runs; this front stuffs 14.6%, the 12th percentile, and allows 3.14 line yards, the 23rd. Every carry that keeps Texas out of third-and-long is a dropback Cojoe does not have to block. Sarkisian: "to get there, you need to get the number of carries to make that happen" (SI Texas).Run the ball first, the way Texas won on Saturday. Texas's running backs ran for almost 200 yards against Ole Miss, a front that stops runs at the line more than most; Mississippi State's front rarely does. Every good run keeps Texas out of obvious passing downs, which protects a new left tackle. Sarkisian: "to get there, you need to get the number of carries to make that happen."
  2. Throw at a secondary at the 17th percentile, with Wingo. Mississippi State allows pass success on 45.8% of throws and 15 passing touchdowns in seven games, with two interceptions all season (Jalen Smith and Dre Riley one each). Ryan Wingo had seven catches for 111 and the 50-yard touchdown on Saturday (Texas Athletics) and leads Texas with 33 for 456; Emmett Mosley V has 21 for 321. Without Coleman, the 50 is the template.Throw at a pass defense that gives up useful throws more than most, and throw to Ryan Wingo. Mississippi State has given up 15 touchdown passes in seven games and intercepted two passes all season. Wingo caught seven passes for 111 yards and a 50-yard touchdown on Saturday and leads Texas in catches and yards; Emmett Mosley V is next. With Cam Coleman probably out, Wingo is the long ball.
  3. Win the margins Texas lost on Saturday. Fourteen penalties for 134 yards, two interceptions and a lost fumble against Ole Miss; 43 penalties for 325 yards over the last four games (Burnt Orange Nation). Texas is minus 3 in turnover margin. Mississippi State is minus 4 and has thrown six interceptions to two made, so the turnover column is the Bulldogs' shortest path into the game.Stop giving away yards and the ball. Texas was flagged 14 times for 134 yards against Ole Miss and turned it over three times. On the season Texas has given the ball away three more times than it has taken it; Mississippi State is four behind. A team favored by 21 loses only when it hands the other side the game, and turnovers are how.

How Mississippi State wins it

  1. Taylor plays, and plays like September. Before the foot, Taylor was 102 of 154 for 1,450 with 17 touchdowns in five games, 360 and three against Missouri, 354 and four against UL Monroe; his passing drove a Bulldog offense with success at the 69th percentile. Texas's coverage allows pass value at the 79th and explosives at the 82nd, and the Texas rush without Simmons had no sacks on Saturday. Lebby: "we'll know more Monday as we move through."Kamario Taylor plays, and plays the way he did in September. Before his foot injury, Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri and 354 and four against UL Monroe. Texas's pass defense is among the better ones in the country, but its pass rush had no sacks on Saturday without Simmons. Mississippi State's coach said they would know more Monday.
  2. Get to Manning past Cojoe. The Texas protection allows havoc at the 7th percentile with Goosby; the Bulldog front seven is at the 30th with 16 sacks. It is the one pairing on the board where both bars are below average and the worse one is Texas's, and the strip-sack touchdown on Saturday came from the left tackle spot.Get to Arch Manning past the new left tackle. Texas's blockers let defenders through more than almost anyone even with Trevor Goosby; Mississippi State's pass rush is below average, with 16 sacks. It is the one matchup on our board where both sides are below average and Texas's is the worse, and Ole Miss's fumble touchdown came from that spot.
  3. Bothwell, and the clock. Fluff Bothwell ran 17 times for 111 against Oklahoma and is at 5.6 a carry with three touchdowns; the Bulldogs ran for 166 against the Sooners and 170 at LSU. Texas allows 3.0 a carry and rush success at the 91st percentile, so the path is narrow: shorten the game, keep the Texas offense on the sideline, and make the 21 a fourth-quarter number.Run with Fluff Bothwell and keep the clock moving. Bothwell ran for 111 yards against Oklahoma and averages almost 6 yards a carry. Texas's run defense allows about 3 yards a carry and is among the best in the country, so the path is narrow: run, shorten the game, keep the Texas offense off the field, and still be close in the fourth quarter.

The Matchup Board

Each bar is that side of the team's rank against every other team in the country, computed from 2026 through seven games for each team with garbage time removed, with last year's bar for the same pairing faint beneath where it tells the trend. The edge label on each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years and at the injuries. Three are built on what the bars cannot see: the Texas protection goes to Mississippi State at full size because Trevor Goosby, the left tackle, is out for the season; the Texas deep game is slight because Cam Coleman is hurt; and the Texas rush against the Bulldog protection is slight because the bar was built with Colin Simmons, who is out.

Each bar shows how good that side of the team is compared with every other team in the country, using this season's seven games, with last year's bar faint beneath where it helps. The longer bar has the edge, and the label next to each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years and at the injuries. Three of our calls are made on what the bars cannot see: Mississippi State gets a full edge against Texas's pass blocking because left tackle Trevor Goosby is out for the season; Texas's long passing game gets only a slight edge because Cam Coleman is hurt; and Texas's pass rush gets only a slight edge because those numbers include Colin Simmons, who is out.

Where it gets decided

Early downs

First and second down, both ways. The Texas line against the Bulldog front is Even, two units in the bottom quarter, and the Texas backs against the Bulldog run defense lean Mississippi State, slight, on a 49-point bar that Saturday's 198 yards from the backs argue with; the other way, the Texas front and run defense take both Bulldog run pairings, 32 and 26 points clear. The faint 2025 bars say the Bulldog front was the worst in the country at the line last year and is merely poor now.

First and second down, both ways. Texas's blocking against Mississippi State's front is a toss-up, two below-average units, and Texas's running backs against Mississippi State's run defense lean Mississippi State slightly on the season's numbers, though Texas's backs ran for almost 200 yards on Saturday; the other way, Texas's front and run defense win both matchups clearly. The faint bars from last year say Mississippi State's front has improved from the bottom of the country to merely below average.

Third down and sub-packages

The money downs, both ways. Texas converts 39.2% (38 of 97) and was 3 of 13 on Saturday; Mississippi State allows 40.6%. The Bulldogs convert 41.6% and were 1 of 11 against Oklahoma; Texas allows 33.3%. The sub-packages: the Bulldog rush against the Texas protection without Goosby is Mississippi State's chip at full size; the Texas rush without Simmons against a Bulldog protection at the 41st percentile is Texas's, slight; the quarterbacks against the coverages are Texas's both ways, slight on Manning without Coleman and full on whoever starts for Mississippi State. The first and third tells live here.

The downs that decide drives, both ways. Texas converts about 39% of its third downs and went 3 of 13 on Saturday; Mississippi State's defense allows about 41%. Mississippi State converts about 42% and went 1 of 11 against Oklahoma; Texas's defense allows a third. The matchups within the matchup: Mississippi State's pass rush against Texas's blockers without Goosby is a Mississippi State edge; Texas's pass rush without Simmons against Mississippi State's blockers is a slight Texas edge; the quarterbacks against the pass defenses go Texas both ways. The first and third signs above live here.

Red zone, goal line and special teams

The compressed field and the kicking game. Texas scores 4.50 points per scoring opportunity (83rd percentile) against a Bulldog defense that allows 3.81 (30th); Mississippi State scores 3.73 (48th) against a Texas defense that allows 2.65 (91st), and Puckett's fumble near the goal line against Oklahoma is the Bulldogs' week in one play. The deep game leans Texas both ways, slight on Texas's side without Coleman. Field position leans Texas by 12 (Texas, slight): Spetic's 11 of 12 against Kyle Ferrie's 7 of 8, Chiumento's 43.9 against Ethan Pulliam's 40.4, and Niblett's 18 punt returns to the Bulldogs' one all season, against a Texas cover game that has allowed two punt-return touchdowns. Turnovers: Texas minus 3, Mississippi State minus 4 (Even).

Close to the goal line, and the kicking game. Once a drive crosses the other team's 40, Texas scores an average of 4.5 points, among the better offenses, against a Mississippi State defense that allows about 3.8; Mississippi State scores about 3.7 against a Texas defense that allows 2.65, among the best in the country. Long passes lean Texas both ways, only slightly on Texas's side without Coleman. The kicking game leans Texas a little: its kicker has made 11 of 12 and its punter kicks it farther, though Texas's punt team has given up two return touchdowns this season. Turnovers: Texas is three behind, Mississippi State four, a toss-up.

When Texas has the ball
Manning's Passing Game vs. the Bulldog SecondaryThird downEdge: Texas, slight
42%
25%
202565%
40%
The 2026 bar leans Texas by 17 (Texas passing value at the 42nd percentile, Mississippi State at the 25th at value allowed and the 17th at pass success allowed, 45.8%); the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 25 (65 vs. 40). Manning is 125 of 197 for 1,510, 7.7 an attempt, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, two of them Saturday, when he was 18 of 30 for 212 and 2 of 6 for 12 on third down (Burnt Orange Nation). The Bulldogs allow 15 touchdown passes and have two interceptions in seven games. Texas, slight: the secondary is the softest unit on the page, and Coleman, six touchdown catches, is the one Texas may not have. This year's numbers lean Texas: Texas's passing game has been a little below average, and Mississippi State's pass defense has been in the bottom fifth at stopping useful throws; last year leaned Texas too. Manning has completed 63% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, two of them on Saturday. Mississippi State has given up 15 touchdown passes and intercepted only two all season. A slight Texas edge, slight because Cam Coleman, with six touchdown catches, is probably out.
The Texas Line vs. the Bulldog Front (Run Blocking)Early downsEdge: Even
14%
23%
202535%
1%
The bar leans Mississippi State by 9 (Texas line yards at the 14th percentile, 2.72 a carry, against a Bulldog front that allows 3.14, the 23rd), and the stuff rates lean the other way: the Bulldog front stuffs 14.6% of runs (12th), Texas is stuffed on 20.3% (24th). The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 34 (35 vs. 1). Saturday Texas ran 42 times for 207 against a front at the 89th in stuffs, and lost Goosby in the first quarter doing it. Even: two units in the bottom quarter, and the Texas one just had its best day. Two below-average units: Texas's blockers have been in the bottom sixth of the country at opening running lanes, and Mississippi State's front in the bottom quarter at stopping runs, and it rarely stops a run behind the line. Last year leaned Texas by a lot. On Saturday Texas ran for 207 yards against a much better front, and lost its left tackle early in the game. A toss-up.
Brown, Terry and the Backs vs. the Bulldog Run DefenseEarly downsEdge: Mississippi State, slight
19%
68%
202549%
26%
Texas rushing value at the 19th percentile against Mississippi State at the 68th at value allowed, the widest bar on Texas's side, 49 points; rush success allowed is at the 50th (42.2%) and the Bulldogs allow 3.7 a carry with five rushing touchdowns in seven games. The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 23 (49 vs. 26). Raleek Brown is 84 for 422, 5.0 a carry, with five touchdowns and the 47-yard run that broke open Saturday's winning drive; Michael Terry III had 8 for 41 and his first touchdown; Smothers is out and Derrek Cooper was "banged up and sick" (Sarkisian, Burnt Orange Nation). Mississippi State, slight: the season says it, and one Saturday is why it is not more. The season's numbers lean Mississippi State by a lot: Texas's running game has been in the bottom fifth of the country, and Mississippi State's run defense better than average at limiting what runs are worth; last year leaned Texas. Raleek Brown averages 5 yards a carry with five touchdowns and ran for 157 on Saturday, and Michael Terry III scored his first touchdown; Hollywood Smothers is out. A slight Mississippi State edge on the season, kept slight because of last Saturday.
Texas Pass Protection vs. the Bulldog Pass RushThird downEdge: Mississippi State
7%
30%
202543%
10%
Built from the rush: the Bulldog front seven creates havoc at the 30th percentile (8.6% of plays) with 16 sacks (Jaray Bledsoe 2.5; Will Whitson, Lockhart and Marcus Williams two each), and one against Oklahoma, a below-average rush; Texas allows havoc at the 7th (18.3%) with 19 sacks allowed. Both bars are below average and the worse one is Texas's, and that was with Goosby. He is out for the season (Pete Thamel, via Burnt Orange Nation and SI); Andre Cojoe, who finished the game there, allowed one sack, one hurry and two pressures on 28 pass-block attempts (SI Texas), and the sack was the strip Ole Miss returned for a touchdown. The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 33 (43 vs. 10). Mississippi State, at full size: a 23-point bar, made bigger by the injury. This one is built from how good the other team's pass rush is: Mississippi State's gets into the backfield less than most, with 16 sacks. Texas's blockers let defenders through more than almost anyone in the country and have allowed 19 sacks, and that was with left tackle Trevor Goosby, who is out for the season. His backup, Andre Cojoe, gave up the sack that Ole Miss turned into a touchdown. Last year leaned Texas. A full Mississippi State edge, the biggest worry on Texas's side of the ball; the first sign above counts what it costs.
Texas Deep Game vs. Bulldog CoverageRed zoneEdge: Texas, slight
63%
61%
202592%
9%
Two points apart (Texas pass explosiveness at the 63rd percentile, Bulldog coverage at the 61st at explosives allowed, 1.51 a play); the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 83 (92 vs. 9). Wingo is 33 for 456 with the 50-yard touchdown on Saturday, Mosley 21 for 321 with a 62, and Coleman 20 for 334 at 16.7 with six touchdowns, one catch for 12 on Saturday before the shoulder. The Bulldog defense as a whole allows explosives at only the 84th, its best number. Texas, slight: the bar is a coin, and the coin has Wingo on it. This year's two sides are almost even: Texas's long passing game has been a bit better than average, and so has Mississippi State's defense against long passes; last year leaned Texas by a mile. Ryan Wingo caught a 50-yard touchdown on Saturday, Emmett Mosley V has a 62-yarder this season, and Cam Coleman, who averages almost 17 yards a catch, is probably out. A slight Texas edge.
When Mississippi State has the ball
Taylor or Puckett vs. Texas CoverageThird downEdge: Texas
79%
55%
202573%
45%
The bar leans Texas by 24 (Texas pass value allowed at the 79th percentile, pass success allowed at the 90th, 34.9%; Mississippi State's passing value at the 55th, success at the 72nd, passing-downs value at the 36th), and it is built mostly from Taylor: 104 of 159, 9.2 an attempt, 17 touchdowns, four interceptions. Puckett is 41 of 64 for 368, 5.8 an attempt, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Texas allows six touchdown passes in seven games and has six interceptions, three on Saturday (Biles, Cryer, McDonald). The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 28 (73 vs. 45). Texas, on both years, and wider than the bar if Puckett starts. This year's numbers lean Texas: Texas's pass defense is among the better ones in the country, and Mississippi State's passing game about average, mostly on Kamario Taylor, who averages over 9 yards a throw. His backup, Parker Puckett, averages under 6. Texas has given up six touchdown passes in seven games and intercepted Ole Miss three times on Saturday. Last year leaned Texas too. A Texas edge, and a bigger one if Puckett starts.
Bothwell and the Bulldog Backs vs. the Texas Run DefenseEarly downsEdge: Texas
83%
57%
202586%
43%
The bar leans Texas by 26 (Texas run value allowed at the 83rd percentile, rush success allowed at the 91st, 33.8%, 3.0 a carry and four rushing touchdowns allowed in seven games; the Bulldog rushing value at the 57th and success at the 67th). Bothwell is 91 for 514, 5.6 a carry, three touchdowns, 17 for 111 against Oklahoma; Kolin Wilson 54 for 218; J.J. Hill 15 for 147 with a 57. Saturday the Ole Miss backs ran 23 times for 82 against this defense. The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 43 (86 vs. 43). Texas. This year's numbers lean Texas: Texas's run defense is among the best in the country, allowing about 3 yards a carry and four rushing touchdowns in seven games, and Mississippi State's running game is a bit better than average. Fluff Bothwell averages almost 6 yards a carry and ran for 111 against Oklahoma. On Saturday Ole Miss's running backs ran 23 times for 82 yards against Texas. Last year leaned Texas too. A Texas edge.
The Bulldog Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking)Early downsEdge: Texas
94%
62%
202578%
29%
The bar leans Texas by 32 (the Texas front allows 2.49 line yards, the 94th percentile, and stuffs 23.5% of runs, the 86th; the Bulldog line creates 3.11, the 62nd, and is stuffed on 20.1%, the 28th), and the 2025 bar leaned Texas by 49 (78 vs. 29). The front has played without Simmons since he left the Florida game, and Alex January blocked a field goal on Saturday (Texas Athletics). Texas. This year's numbers lean Texas, and last year's by more: Texas's front has been among the best in the country at the line, and Mississippi State's blockers a little better than average, though runs get stopped behind the line against them more than most. Texas's front has played without Simmons since the Florida game and still blocked a field goal on Saturday. A Texas edge.
Bulldog Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass RushThird downEdge: Texas, slight
83%
41%
202581%
15%
The bar leans Texas by 42 (Texas front-seven havoc at the 83rd percentile, 12.1% of plays; the Bulldog protection allows havoc at the 41st, 15.5%, and 20 sacks in seven games, four to Oklahoma), and the chip is slight, said so: the bar was built with Simmons, who has 10 of Texas's 19 sacks, and Texas had no sacks without him against Ole Miss. Rasheem Biles has seven hurries and Hero Kanu four. The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 66 (81 vs. 15). Texas, slight. This year's numbers lean Texas by a lot: Texas's defense gets into the backfield more than most, and Mississippi State's blockers have allowed 20 sacks, four to Oklahoma. We keep it to a slight Texas edge, and say so, because those Texas numbers were built with Colin Simmons, who has 10 of Texas's 19 sacks and is out, and Texas had no sacks on Saturday without him. Last year leaned Texas by more. A slight Texas edge.
Evans, Magee and the Deep Game vs. Texas CoverageRed zoneEdge: Texas
82%
47%
202571%
86%
The bar leans Texas by 35 (Texas allows explosive passes at the 82nd percentile, 1.44 a play; the Bulldog pass explosiveness is at the 47th). Anthony Evans III is 53 for 647 with five touchdowns and a 48, Sanfrisco Magee 22 for 360 at 16.4 with six touchdowns, Marquis Johnson 18 for 259 with a 70, Zion Ragins 14 for 209 and four. The 2025 bar leaned Mississippi State by 15 (71 vs. 86), the one pairing on the board that flipped. Texas, on this year and on who throws it. This year's numbers lean Texas: Texas's defense allows long passes less than most, and Mississippi State's long passing game is about average. Anthony Evans III has 647 yards, and Sanfrisco Magee has six touchdowns at over 16 yards a catch. Last year leaned Mississippi State, the one matchup that has flipped. A Texas edge, on this year and on who is throwing.
The margins
Special Teams & Field PositionSpecial teamsEdge: Texas, slight
58%
46%
202585%
46%
The bar leans Texas by 12 (average starting spot at the 58th percentile, 70.6 yards from the goal, to Mississippi State's 46th, 71.3; last year 85 vs. 46). The kickers: Gianni Spetic 11 of 12 with a 52, 26 of 26 on extra points; Kyle Ferrie 7 of 8 with a 52, 25 of 25. The punters lean Texas (Mac Chiumento 43.9 on 29 with eight inside the 20; Ethan Pulliam 40.4 on 22). The returners lean Texas: Ryan Niblett has 18 punt returns for 217 and a touchdown; the Bulldogs have one punt return all season. Texas's cover units have allowed two punt-return touchdowns in the data service's count and 20.4 a kickoff return, and Burnt Orange Nation wrote Sunday that "There needs to be a change in the special teams department"; slight. Texas has started its drives in a little better field position than Mississippi State this season. Texas's kicker, Gianni Spetic, has made 11 of 12; Mississippi State's, Kyle Ferrie, 7 of 8. Texas's punter kicks it farther, and its punt returner, Ryan Niblett, has a touchdown, while Mississippi State has returned one punt all year. But Texas's own punt team has given up two return touchdowns this season, which is why the edge is only slight.
Coaching & LuckEdge: Even
No computed bar, and Even. The luck half: Texas sits at minus 3 in turnover margin (fumbles minus 2, interceptions minus 1), Mississippi State at minus 4 (interceptions minus 4, fumbles even); neither has luck in the bank. The coaching half: Jeff Lebby, asked about a longer Taylor absence, "Yeah, we've got to get out of our own way," and on the quarterback, "whoever really at the end of the day, I feel like puts us in the best position to go win, take great care of the football" (SI Mississippi State); Sarkisian, "this is the ultimate team sport" (SI Texas). Discipline: Texas 65.7 penalty yards a game and 14 for 134 on Saturday, Mississippi State 73.4. Even. No bar here, and a toss-up. On turnovers, Texas has given the ball away three more times than it has taken it, and Mississippi State four; neither is sitting on a lucky streak. On coaching: Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby, asked Saturday about a longer Taylor absence, said, "Yeah, we've got to get out of our own way"; Sarkisian, "this is the ultimate team sport." Both teams are penalized a lot, Texas about 66 yards a game and 134 on Saturday, Mississippi State about 73. A toss-up.

Game-Week Intel

Texas Storylines

Mississippi State Storylines

Chatter check: Longhorn spaces on Sunday were on Goosby's injury and the jump to No. 11 (the r/LonghornNation front page, Oct 26); Burnt Orange Nation's read was relief more than joy ("Ugliness in the margins nearly cost Texas vs. Ole Miss," Oct 25), with the special teams and the penalties the complaint, and the observation that Texas "still probably need[s] to win out" for the playoff. Nothing in it moves a number on this page.

Availability & Injury Report · no SEC report yet this week (the conference posts Wednesday to Friday); what follows is the coaches' and the beat's word since Saturday's games, and this block is rechecked on game day. Texas: Trevor Goosby · OL · Out for the season, knee, injured against Ole Miss (Pete Thamel, as relayed by Burnt Orange Nation and SI Texas, Oct 25). Cam Coleman · WR · Doubtful (our read), left shoulder, did not return Saturday; no official status, and Sarkisian said "neither of them look very good." Colin Simmons · EDGE · Out, ankle, missed Week 8, and the injury reportedly costs "multiple weeks" (Burnt Orange Nation). Hollywood Smothers · RB · Out, missed Week 8, no timeline. Derrek Cooper · RB · Questionable (our read), "banged up and sick"; the SEC listed him probable Friday and he played a handful of snaps. Andre Cojoe · OL · Available, finished Saturday at left tackle and the likely starter; Jordan Coleman · OL · Candidate, the other name SI Texas gives (Oct 25). Kobe Black · DB · Not listed, a game-time decision Saturday who dressed and did not play (SI Texas). Arch Manning · QB · Available, the starter. Not mentioned since Saturday and last listed out or questionable: Richard Wesley, EDGE; Kaliq Lockett, WR; Jaydon Chatman, OL; Jackson Christian, OL. Mississippi State: Kamario Taylor · QB · Questionable (our read), right foot re-aggravated against Oklahoma; Lebby: "we'll know more Monday." Parker Puckett · QB · Available and AJ Swann · QB · Available, competing to start if Taylor cannot. Statuses marked "our read" are ours from the coaches' words, not an official designation; the SEC's Wednesday, Thursday and Friday reports replace them. Rechecked on game day.

What the Data Says

Two sets of numbers: the full 2025 season, and 2026 through seven games for each team, which is a read and not yet a verdict. The SP+ rows are as the data service published them in Sunday night's pull. Definitions for every metric live in the Data Dictionary.

Two sets of numbers: all of last season, and the seven games so far this year for each team, which is still early to trust fully. The ratings rows are as the data service published them on Sunday night. Every number is defined in the Data Dictionary.

Schedule-adjusted view (SP+)TexasMississippi State
SP+ overall, 2025 (rank)+16.2 (No. 17)+4.1 (No. 58)
SP+ overall, 2026 (rank), Sunday's pull+21.1 (No. 8)+7.3 (No. 47)
SP+ offense, 2026+34.4+33.7
SP+ defense, 2026 (lower is better)+13.5+26.8
Off. success rate, 2026 (pctl)42.0% (43rd)45.5% (69th)
Off. explosiveness, 2026 (pctl)1.19 (29th)1.25 (51st)
Def. success rate, 2026 (pctl)34.4% (94th)44.1% (23rd)
Def. points per scoring opportunity, 2026 (pctl)2.65 (91st)3.81 (30th)
Third down, 2026 (offense / defense)39.2% / 33.3%41.6% / 40.6%
Turnover margin, 2025 / 2026+14 / −3+3 / −4
Sacks made / allowed, 202619 / 1916 / 20
Penalty yards a game, 202665.773.4
2025 record10-35-8
2026 results59-7 Texas State, 24-23 Ohio State, 30-6 UTSA, 20-17 at Tennessee, 24-27 Oklahoma (Dallas), 24-27 Florida, 34-27 Ole Miss62-13 UL Monroe, 38-13 at Minnesota, 41-34 at South Carolina, 31-24 Missouri, 23-56 Alabama, 0-31 at LSU, 15-23 Oklahoma

What the table says: the two offenses rate seven tenths of a point apart in SP+, and the two defenses 13.3 apart, Texas's the better, which is the whole of the model's number: the Texas offense plus the Mississippi State defense adds to 61.2, the Mississippi State offense plus the Texas defense to 47.2, and 2.5 for the home field makes it Texas by 16.5. The rows underneath say why the market is at 21 and not 16: the Mississippi State offense rates near Texas's on the season, but most of that season was Kamario Taylor's, and in the two games since he last started a game it has scored 15 points. The Texas defense's rows are the best on the page (94th at stopping plays, 91st once opponents get close); the Mississippi State defense is a 23rd-percentile unit at stopping plays and a 30th at finishing. Last year's rows describe a 10-3 team and a 5-8 one, and a Texas turnover margin that was +14 and is now minus 3.

Sources & Method

Our call follows the betting line, and our computer model is printed beside it for comparison, because the line has been the better guide this season. This week the two disagree by four and a half points, the model less Texas, and the call stays with the line. Mississippi State's maroon is too dark to read as a bar on the dark page and the lighter maroons in between cannot be told from burnt orange, and its secondary color is white, so Mississippi State appears on this page in a derived shade of its own maroon, rung 3 of our clash ladder, validated against burnt orange in both modes, with the team named on every label. Not betting advice. Every claim on this page is graded Sunday, misses first.