First and second down, both ways, in full: the run ladder for each offense against the run defense it meets, where the yards come from, how often each side stays on schedule, and the bodies who decide it. Plus the availability news Monday's page held back. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them. The first Early Downs edition the Dispatch has published.
Most running happens on first and second down. Today we look at how well each team runs the ball and stops the run, where on the field the yards come from, and what that sets up. We also catch up on the injury news Monday's page left out. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them. This is the first Tuesday edition we have published.
Read it top to bottom: whether A&M's runs work at all, what each carry is worth, where the yards come from (at the line, at the second level, in open grass), how often a run dies behind the line, whether anything breaks long, and how the early downs go overall. Every rung but one leans A&M, and the gaps are the ones Monday's board read: Arkansas allows line yards at the 12th percentile (3.33 a carry), stuffs only 12.2% of runs (7th percentile), and allows rush success at the 14th and rushing value at the 8th, with 500 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns allowed in four games (the college box counts sacks as runs). By rushing value it is the softest run defense A&M has met this year; the closest was Kentucky's, at the 22nd percentile, and A&M ran for 187 on 35 carries that day. The counter from Saturday: without its starting linebacker, Bradley Shaw, Arkansas held Tulsa, a run game at the 79th percentile in rushing value, to 65 rushing yards on 23 carries (the official box), a reminder that four games is a small sample. The Aggie run game itself is ordinary, not good: success at the 57th percentile, value per carry at the 25th, line yards at the 41st. The one rung Arkansas wins is the one A&M has never owned, the big run: the Aggie attack sits at the 23rd percentile there, and Rueben Owens II's longest carry of the year is 16 yards. So the shape to expect is the grind, four and five yards at a time against a front that does not win at the line, not the break. On early downs overall (CFBD's standard downs: first down, and any second or third down short enough that a run is still a real option), A&M succeeds on 45.6% of plays (28th percentile) against an Arkansas defense that allows 52.0% (12th). Monday's chips, Texas A&M at the line and Texas A&M on the backs against the run defense, stand.
Read it top to bottom: whether A&M's runs work at all, how much each one gains, where the yards come from (at the line, just past it where the linebackers are, and out in open space), how often a runner gets stopped before he gets started, whether anyone breaks a long one, and how first and second down go overall. Almost every row leans A&M. Arkansas's defense is among the worst in the country at stopping runs at the line (worse than 88 of 100 teams), it rarely stops a runner for no gain or a loss, about one run in eight, fewer than all but 10 defenses, and it has given up 500 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in four games. It is the weakest run defense A&M has played this year; the closest was Kentucky's, and A&M ran for 187 yards on 35 carries that day. The other side of it: last Saturday, even without its starting linebacker, Arkansas held Tulsa, a good running team, to 65 rushing yards on 23 carries, a reminder that four games is not many. A&M's own running game is only average: its runs work a little more often than most teams', but they gain less than most, and the blockers are a bit below average. The one row Arkansas wins is the long run, which A&M almost never breaks: Rueben Owens II's longest carry this year is 16 yards. So expect A&M to grind, four and five yards at a time, not to break long ones. On first and second down overall, A&M's plays work 45.6% of the time, worse than most teams, and Arkansas's defense allows 52.0%, worse than 87 of 100 defenses. Monday's picks, an A&M edge at the line and an A&M edge for the running backs, stand.
The mirror, and the ladder the week turns on. On the season's numbers it is the widest mismatch on either side: A&M allows rushing value at the 88th percentile and big runs at the 80th, and Arkansas produces rushing value at the 11th, second-level yards at the 4th, big runs at the 1st and open-field yards at the 0th (0.19 a carry, last of the 138 teams). No Arkansas running back has a carry longer than 12 yards in four games: Braylen Russell is 33 for 96, Sutton Smith 33 for 85, Cam Settles 20 for 70. The one rung Arkansas wins is the stuff: the Aggie front stops runs at or behind the line on 18.1% of carries (38th percentile), and the Arkansas line allows it on 17.6% (43rd). Now the honest counter, and the reason Monday printed the backs' chip as slight: the season bar is built on the first two games. A&M has allowed 502 rushing yards on 126 carries, sacks included; 350 of them came in the last two games, 156 on 36 carries to Kentucky and 194 on 38 at LSU, and 152 on 52 carries came in the two before. Sort the four opponents by their own 2026 run games and the pattern is plain: A&M held the run games that grade poorly (Arizona State at the 12th percentile in rushing value, 115 yards on 29 carries; Missouri State at the 39th) and lost to the two that grade well (Kentucky at the 80th, LSU at the 67th). Arkansas's run game grades at the 11th, the lowest of the five, which is Arizona State's profile, not Kentucky's. So Saturday can answer only half the question: a good night against the weakest run game A&M has seen would not prove the run defense is fixed, and a bad one would say something is badly wrong. Monday's chips stand: Texas A&M, slight, against the Arkansas backs, and Texas A&M at the line.
The same ladder the other way, and the one this week turns on. On the season's numbers it is the biggest gap on either side: A&M's run defense has been better than 88 of 100 teams, and Arkansas's running game has been among the worst in the country at nearly every stage of a run, and dead last at gaining yards once a runner gets into open space. No Arkansas running back has a run longer than 12 yards in four games: Braylen Russell has 96 yards on 33 carries, Sutton Smith 85 on 33, Cam Settles 70 on 20. The one row Arkansas wins, barely, is stopping runners at the line: A&M's front does that less often than most teams. Now the honest part, and the reason Monday's pick here is only a small A&M edge: A&M's good season numbers come mostly from its first two games. A&M has given up 502 rushing yards this year, and 350 of them came in the last two games, 156 to Kentucky and 194 at LSU. It held the two weak running teams it played, Arizona State (115 yards on 29 carries) and Missouri State, and lost to the two good ones. Arkansas's running game is the weakest of any team A&M has played, closer to Arizona State's than to Kentucky's. So Saturday can only answer half the question: a good night against the weakest running team A&M has seen would not prove the run defense is fixed, and a bad one would mean something is badly wrong. Monday's picks stand: a small A&M edge against Arkansas's running backs, and an A&M edge at the line.
An offense that has been living behind the chains. A&M has been in passing downs on 33.2% of its snaps (20th percentile at staying out of them), and its early-down numbers are the weakest part of its profile: success on standard downs at the 28th percentile, value per play at the 13th, explosiveness at the 7th. Marcel Reed's own numbers, passes and runs together, show the split: on standard downs he is at −0.12 a play in value, on passing downs +0.28, and first down is his worst down at −0.20. An offense that does its best work on long second and third downs is not built to last, and the run game is how it gets out: if the ladder above is right, A&M sees more second-and-4 than second-and-9, and that is where Reed's first-down problem can hide. The Aggie mix from the play-by-play of the three games we hold: A&M threw on 43% of its first and second downs against Arizona State, 62% against Kentucky, 42% at LSU (sacks counted as throws, quarterback runs as runs).
An offense that keeps falling behind. A&M ends up in second-and-long or third-and-long, the downs where everyone knows a pass is coming, more often than most teams, and its first and second downs are the weakest part of its game: its plays work less often than most teams' and rarely go for big gains. Marcel Reed's own numbers show it. His plays, passes and runs together, lose value on first and second down and gain it on second-and-long and third-and-long; first down is his worst down. An offense that does its best work on long second and third downs cannot keep that up, and running the ball well is how it gets out of the hole: if the ladder above is right, A&M should see more second-and-4 than second-and-9. How A&M has mixed it on first and second down, from the three games we have play-by-play for: it threw on 43% of those downs against Arizona State, 62% against Kentucky, and 42% at LSU.
Jackson's arm, and a defense that rarely gets ahead. Arkansas's early downs are KJ Jackson's: he is at +0.20 a play on standard downs, passes and runs together, with a run game beside him near the bottom of the country, so the Razorbacks' early-down success rate (48.1%, 44th percentile) is mostly his arm. Arkansas has been in passing downs on 34.4% of its snaps (14th percentile). Across from him, A&M's defense allows early-down success at the 57th percentile and value per play at the 76th, but it puts offenses in passing downs on only 26.6% of their snaps, the 6th percentile. That is the Aggie coverage problem showing up a down early: the long second and third downs where this defense wants to live are the snaps it has had the fewest of. Play-action: no public play-action split exists in the data we use, so we do not print one; early-down passing value, above, is the nearest honest instrument.
Arkansas's quarterback carries the load, and A&M's defense rarely gets ahead. On first and second down, Arkansas's offense is mostly KJ Jackson throwing the ball: his plays gain value on those downs, and the running game beside him is among the worst in the country. Arkansas's first and second downs work 48.1% of the time, about average, and Arkansas ends up in long-yardage downs more often than most teams. A&M's defense is fine on first and second down on the whole, but it almost never pushes offenses into third-and-long: only 26.6% of opponents' plays against A&M have come on those downs, one of the lowest shares in the country. That is A&M's pass-defense problem showing up a down early. About fake-handoff passes: the numbers we use do not count them separately, so we do not print a number for them.
Why this is here. Monday's Game Plan kept off every item dated the night of the games, Saturday, Sept 26, under a reading of our date rule that was too strict: the rule keeps out stale news, not the last game's injuries. Anything dated from the last game day on counts. This is the catch-up, both sides, with the dates; none of it is the SEC's official report, which comes Wednesday evening and which Friday's Walkthrough reads.
Why this is here. On Monday we left out every injury report from last Saturday night, because we read our own rule about old news too strictly. Injuries from the last game count. So here is the catch-up for both teams, with dates. None of this is the conference's official injury list, which comes out Wednesday evening; Friday's update reads that.
Texas A&M. Mario Craver · WR · No update: hurt his left ankle in the first half at LSU (Texas A&M On SI, Sept 26, citing the ESPN broadcast), returned for the second half and was still being targeted in the fourth quarter (LSU's official play-by-play); nothing dated since. Tyree Adams · OL · No update: the starting left tackle was injured on a second-quarter play at LSU (official play-by-play; the Statesman's live blog: he walked to the sideline on his own) and came back to play 59 of 63 snaps (Aggies Wire, Sept 28). Jamarion Morrow · RB · No update: out at LSU per the game-day report, his second straight missed game (KBTX, Sept 26); Aggies Wire, Sept 28: unknown whether he returns. Ashton Bethel-Roman · WR · Available: he started at LSU and played 36 snaps without a catch, which is why he has no line in the box score we pull; Monday's page read the empty box line as a question mark. KJ Edwards · RB · Available: four carries for 21 at LSU. Terry Bussey, Madden Williams, Tiger Riden Jr. and Chace Sims remain out for the season. Elko's Monday session had no injury questions; his words on the offense belong to this page: "We're so choppy right now, it's a good play followed up by a TFL or it's a good play followed up with an incompletion," and the job is to "stay ahead of the chains."
Texas A&M. Mario Craver · WR · No update: A&M's top receiver hurt his left ankle in the first half at LSU, came back for the second half, and was still being thrown to in the fourth quarter; no news since. Tyree Adams · OL · No update: the starting left tackle got hurt in the second quarter, walked off on his own, and came back to play almost the whole game. Jamarion Morrow · RB · No update: the running back has missed the last two games, and nobody has said when he returns. Ashton Bethel-Roman · WR · Available: the receiver started at LSU and played a lot, he just did not catch a pass, which is why Monday we could not tell whether he had played. KJ Edwards · RB · Available: the running back played at LSU. Four players are out for the year: Terry Bussey, Madden Williams, Tiger Riden Jr. and Chace Sims. Elko on Monday, about his offense: "We're so choppy right now, it's a good play followed up by a TFL or it's a good play followed up with an incompletion," meaning a good play keeps getting followed by a lost-yardage play or an incomplete pass, and the job is to "stay ahead of the chains," to stay out of long-yardage downs.
Arkansas. Bradley Shaw · LB · Uncertain and Wyatt Simmons · LB · Uncertain: neither dressed for Tulsa (Times Record, Sept 26); Silverfield on Monday, asked whether either could practice this week: "There really is (a chance)" (Times Record, Sept 28); he did not rule them out for Saturday, and he has said he does not play men who miss most of the week's practice (Whole Hog Sports, Sept 28). Shaw is the starter who wears the green-dot helmet; Ben Bogle took the role against Tulsa, and Silverfield: "If Bradley Shaw's back, he'll have the green dot" (Whole Hog Sports, Sept 28). Charlie Collins · DL · No update: did not dress for Tulsa, and Silverfield gave no update. Kavion Broussard · OL · Available and Gavin Rush · P · Available: both left the Georgia game hurt and both dressed for Tulsa, and Broussard started (the official box; left tackle on the depth chart).
Arkansas. Bradley Shaw · LB · Uncertain and Wyatt Simmons · LB · Uncertain: two linebackers who did not dress for Tulsa; Arkansas's coach, Ryan Silverfield, said Monday there is "really" a chance they practice this week, and he did not rule them out for Saturday; he usually sits players who miss most of the week's practice. Shaw is the starter who calls the defense's signals; Ben Bogle did it against Tulsa. Charlie Collins · DL · No update: also missed Tulsa, no word since. Kavion Broussard · OL · Available and Gavin Rush · P · Available: the left tackle and the punter both got hurt against Georgia and both were back for Tulsa.
What it changes. No chip and not the call. It sharpens two things. Shaw is Arkansas's starting linebacker, with 15 tackles this season, and the run defense on the ladder above played Tulsa without him and still held the Golden Hurricane, a run game at the 79th percentile in rushing value, to 65 rushing yards on 23 carries (the official box); his status is Wednesday's first question. And Monday's availability block now carries a dated correction for the Bethel-Roman line and the items it held back.
What it changes. None of Monday's picks, and not the score. Two things get sharper. Shaw is Arkansas's starting linebacker, with 15 tackles this season, and Arkansas played Tulsa without him and still held Tulsa, a good running team, to 65 rushing yards; whether he plays is the first thing to watch on Wednesday's official list. And Monday's page now carries a dated correction about Bethel-Roman and the injury news it left out.
Texas A&M: Rueben Owens II, RB (56 carries for 248, 4.4 a carry, long 16; six catches for 50), the volume back; Carsyn Baker, RB (17 for 75, two touchdowns); KJ Edwards, RB (17 for 115, 6.8 a carry, by far the best value per carry of the Aggie backs); Jamarion Morrow, RB (16 for 56 and a touchdown, all in the first two games; he has missed Kentucky and LSU). Marcel Reed, QB, is the second-busiest runner (34 carries for 104 with sacks counted, long 40). The line A&M started at LSU (The Eagle, Sept 26): Tyree Adams, OL, at left tackle, Trovon Baugh, OL, at left guard, Mark Nabou Jr., OL, at center, Wilkin Formby, OL, moved in from right tackle to right guard, and Lamont Rogers, OL, at right tackle. Monday's depth chart did not follow it: it still lists Blake Ivy, OL, at left guard, Baugh at right guard, Formby at right tackle and Rogers behind Adams (Aggies Wire and Whole Hog Sports, Sept 28), so which five start Saturday is open. Elko on the change after the game: "We were able to run the ball a little bit better, but we just weren't able to keep it going." The tight ends who block on early downs: Houston Thomas, TE (three catches) and Micah Riley, TE (listed as Micah Riley-Ducker in the stats file; three catches and a touchdown). The run fits: Noah Mikhail, LB (23 tackles, the team lead), Ray Coney, LB (22, 1.5 for loss), Tamarion Watkins, LB (seven, two for loss), DJ Hicks, DT (1.5 for loss, three hurries), T.J. Searcy, DE (17 tackles, 2.5 for loss), and behind them the safeties Marcus Ratcliffe, S (18) and Dalton Brooks, S (17). Arkansas: Braylen Russell, RB (33 for 96, a touchdown), Sutton Smith, RB (33 for 85 and a touchdown, plus six catches for 81), Cam Settles, RB (20 for 70, ten catches); KJ Jackson, QB (35 carries for 79 with sacks counted, two touchdowns, long 20, the longest Arkansas run of the year). Tight ends Jaden Platt, TE (seven for 69, a score) and Ty Lockwood, TE (ten for 78, a score). The front: Ja'Quavion Smith, LB (23 tackles, two for loss), Ben Bogle, LB (20, two for loss, a sack), Khmori House, DB (22 tackles, 3.5 for loss, two sacks), Quincy Rhodes Jr., DL (three for loss, two sacks), and Christian Harrison, DB, tied for the team lead with 23 tackles, which on a run defense this soft says where the tackles are being made.
Texas A&M: the running backs are Rueben Owens II, who carries it most (248 yards on 56 carries, about 4.4 a carry), Carsyn Baker (two touchdowns), KJ Edwards, who has gained the most per carry (6.8), and Jamarion Morrow, who has missed the last two games. Quarterback Marcel Reed runs too. The blockers, reshuffled for the LSU game: Tyree Adams, Trovon Baugh, Mark Nabou Jr., Wilkin Formby and Lamont Rogers, with Rogers new at right tackle and Formby moved inside. The team's official lineup list released Monday still shows the old arrangement, so we do not know yet which five will start. Elko after the game: "We were able to run the ball a little bit better, but we just weren't able to keep it going." Tight ends Houston Thomas and Micah Riley help block. The defenders who stop the run: linebackers Noah Mikhail (a team-high 23 tackles), Ray Coney and Tamarion Watkins, the big men in the middle led by DJ Hicks, end T.J. Searcy, and safeties Marcus Ratcliffe and Dalton Brooks behind them. Arkansas: running backs Braylen Russell, Sutton Smith and Cam Settles, none with a run longer than 12 yards; quarterback KJ Jackson, whose 20-yard run is Arkansas's longest of the year; tight ends Jaden Platt and Ty Lockwood, a touchdown each. On defense, linebackers Ja'Quavion Smith and Ben Bogle, defensive back Khmori House (two sacks), lineman Quincy Rhodes Jr. (two sacks), and defensive back Christian Harrison, tied for the team lead in tackles, which for a run defense usually means runners are getting past the front.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. A&M's run game is an ordinary unit, value per carry at the 25th percentile, that meets the softest run defense on its schedule; it grinds better than it breaks, so the ladder argues for volume, not highlights. Arkansas's run game sits beside its run defense at the bottom of both ladders (value per carry at the 11th percentile, open-field yards last in the country): the offense runs through KJ Jackson's arm on early downs, and the backs have not produced a run longer than 12 yards. The Aggie run defense's season bar is the one number on this page we trust least, because it was built on Missouri State and Arizona State and then gave up 350 yards in two weeks. The structural mismatch the game tests first is the third tell: 75 yards on the Aggie backs' first 15 carries. For scale, from the play-by-play, the backs' first 15 carries went for 53 yards against Arizona State, 75 against Kentucky and 63 at LSU; Kentucky is the warning that the tell measures the run game, not the result, because A&M hit the number that day and lost. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Texas A&M at the line (w5-e2), Texas A&M on the backs against the Arkansas run defense (w5-e3), Texas A&M, slight, against the Arkansas backs (w5-e7), Texas A&M at the Arkansas line (w5-e8). The call stays Texas A&M 33, Arkansas 19.
Our bottom line for today. A&M's running game is only average, but it faces the weakest run defense on its schedule, and it gains its yards a few at a time rather than in big chunks, so the plan is to keep running, not to hope for a long one. Arkansas's running game is, with its run defense, the weakest part of its team: the offense is really its quarterback's arm on first and second down, and its running backs have not had a run longer than 12 yards all year. The number on this page we trust least is A&M's good run-defense record, because it came against Missouri State and Arizona State, and then A&M gave up 350 rushing yards in two weeks. The first thing the game will answer is our third early sign: 75 yards on the first 15 carries by A&M's running backs. For comparison, those first 15 carries went for 53 yards against Arizona State, 75 against Kentucky and 63 at LSU. Kentucky is the warning: A&M hit 75 that day and still lost, so the sign tells you about the running game, not the final score. Monday's picks do not change: an A&M edge at the line and for its running backs, a small A&M edge against Arkansas's running backs, and an A&M edge against Arkansas's blockers. The score we picked stays Texas A&M 33, Arkansas 19.
Updated Sept 29, before publication on the site, after the Layer 2 fact-check: Silverfield's "There really is (a chance)" answered whether Shaw and Simmons could practice this week, not whether they play; his line about finding the running backs was about check-down throws and is gone; A&M's Monday depth chart still lists the pre-LSU line; Morrow has missed two games, not one; Reed is the second-busiest runner.Updated Sept 29, after our fact-check and before this page went on the site: Arkansas's coach was asked whether two injured linebackers could practice this week, not whether they would play; a quote of his about the running backs was about short passes to them, so we took it out; A&M's official lineup list still shows its old offensive line; Morrow has missed two games, not one; Reed has the second-most carries on the team. Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week5: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware; season, player and player-value stats for both teams; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file spells a name differently the roster wins), the play-by-play and box scores of A&M's games against Arizona State, Kentucky and LSU (data/2026/week2 to week4, postgame files: the early-down mix, the backs' first 15 carries, the rushing lines allowed; Missouri State's line is the season total minus the other three). Availability: Texas A&M On SI via Yahoo (Sept 26, Craver), LSU's official box and play-by-play (Sept 26, Craver targeted in the fourth quarter, Adams injured on the play, the Aggie rushing lines), the Statesman's live blog via Yahoo (Sept 26, Adams), Aggies Wire via Yahoo (Sept 28, snap counts), The Eagle (Sept 26, the line and Elko on it), Aggies Wire via Yahoo (Sept 28, the depth chart), Whole Hog Sports (Sept 28, both depth charts), KBTX (Sept 26, the game-day report), Texas A&M Athletics (Sept 28, Elko's Monday transcript), Times Record via Yahoo (Sept 26, who dressed for Tulsa) and again (Sept 28, Silverfield on Shaw and Simmons), Whole Hog Sports (Sept 28, Silverfield's Monday and his practice rule), the official Tulsa box (Sept 26: Tulsa 65 rushing yards on 23 carries, Broussard among the starters). Every status on this page is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams. Definitions in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's first availability report is Wednesday evening; Friday's Walkthrough reads it.