First and second down, both ways, in full: the run ladder for each offense against the run defense it meets, where the yards come from, how often each side stays on schedule, and the bodies who decide it. The Aggie run game that carried Saturday meets a Missouri front that wins every rung of the ladder, and the Aggie run defense meets a Missouri run game that is Jamal Roberts and not much else. Plus Monday's press conferences, Craver first. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them, and corrects one number under them.
Most running happens on first and second down. Today we look at how well each team runs the ball and stops the run, where on the field the yards come from, and what that sets up. A&M's running game, which won Saturday's game, meets a Missouri defensive front that beats it on every row of our chart; and A&M's run defense meets a Missouri running game that is one player, Jamal Roberts, and not much else. We also have Monday's press conferences, starting with Mario Craver. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them, and fixes one number under them.
Read it top to bottom: whether A&M's runs work at all, what each carry is worth, where the yards come from (at the line, at the second level, in open grass), how often a run dies behind the line, whether anything breaks long, and how the early downs go overall. Missouri wins all eight rungs, and six of them by 30 or more. The front is the story: Missouri allows 2.17 line yards a carry (93rd percentile, the ninth-lowest figure in FBS), stuffs 27.5% of runs at or behind the line (93rd), allows rush success at the 86th percentile and rushing value at the 86th, and gives up 0.54 open-field yards a carry (82nd), which says the few runs that get through the front do not get far past it. In five games Missouri has allowed 444 rushing yards on 170 carries, 2.6 a carry with sacks counted: 81 on 36 to Kansas, a run game at the 78th percentile in rushing value, 42 on 25 to Florida, at the 86th, and 139 on 40 to Mississippi State, the one night it bent. Among the fronts A&M has met, only LSU's grades higher (rushing value allowed at the 87th percentile to Missouri's 86th, line yards and stuffs at the 99th), and LSU held the Aggies to 91 yards on 33 carries, 2.8 a carry in the box. The Aggie run game comes in better than it was a week ago: rush success at the 61st percentile, up from the 57th, and value per carry at the 44th, up from the 25th, after 231 yards on 49 carries against Arkansas, whose run defense sits at the 3rd percentile in rushing value. Line yards (39th) and the second level (36th) are still below average, and the big run is still not an Aggie trait (38th; Rueben Owens II's longest carry is 16, KJ Edwards's 20). The narrowest rung is that one, where Missouri's 40th barely tops it. On early downs overall (CFBD's standard downs: first down, and any second or third down short enough that a run is still a real option), A&M succeeds on 46.4% of plays (29th percentile) against a Missouri defense that allows 39.2% (88th). Monday's chips, Missouri at the line and Missouri, slight, on the backs, stand; the slight rests on Mississippi State's 139, the one night this front bent, and the second tell measures which Missouri shows up.
Read it top to bottom: whether A&M's runs work at all, how much each one gains, where the yards come from (at the line, just past it where the linebackers are, and out in open space), how often a runner gets stopped before he gets started, whether anyone breaks a long one, and how first and second down go overall. Missouri wins every row, most of them by a lot. The front is the story: Missouri's defense is among the best in the country at stopping runs right at the line, it stops more than one run in four for no gain or a loss, and the few runs that get past the front do not get far. In five games Missouri has given up 444 rushing yards, about 2.6 a carry: 81 yards to Kansas and 42 to Florida, two good running teams, and 139 to Mississippi State, the one night it bent. Of the defenses A&M has played, only LSU's is better at stopping the run, and LSU held A&M to 91 yards on 33 carries. A&M's running game is better than it was a week ago, after 231 yards against Arkansas, one of the worst run defenses in the country: its runs work a little more often than most teams' now, and each one is worth about an average amount. Its blockers are still a bit below average, and the long run is still not something A&M does: Rueben Owens II's longest carry this year is 16 yards, KJ Edwards's 20. On first and second down overall, A&M's plays work 46.4% of the time, worse than most teams, and Missouri's defense allows 39.2%, better than most. Monday's picks, a Missouri edge at the line and a small Missouri edge against the running backs, stand; the second one is only small because of the Mississippi State game, the one night this front bent, and our second early sign measures which Missouri shows up.
The mirror, and the one with the asterisk. On the season's numbers A&M wins seven of the eight rungs: the Aggie defense allows rushing value at the 85th percentile and big runs at the 78th, and Missouri's run game produces rushing value at the 25th, rush success at the 14th, second-level yards at the 12th and big runs at the 18th. The two lines meet at the same figure, 2.88 line yards a carry, Missouri's line creating it (30th) and the Aggie front allowing it (51st). The one rung Missouri wins is the last one, early-down success overall, 49.3% to the 46.2% A&M allows, and that is Austin Simmons's doing, not the run game's. Now the asterisk, which is the whole second half of this ladder: Jamal Roberts is 113 carries for 606 yards, 5.4 a carry, six touchdowns and a long of 80, and he has 606 of Missouri's 860 rushing yards. Xai'Shaun Edwards, the second back, is 33 for 133 at 4.0, and Simmons has run 12 times for 10 yards with sacks counted. Roberts's day against Florida was 24 carries for 211 with runs of 77 and 80 (76 in the AP's account); the ladder's 25th percentile and 14th-percentile success rate are what the other carries look like, and Eli Drinkwitz said so after that game: "We better start running the ball better on first and second down, or we're going to be in real trouble versus A&M." The honest counter on the Aggie side is the same one as last week, one game older. A&M has allowed 605 rushing yards on 148 carries, sacks included, and the pattern by opponent holds: it held the run games that grade poorly (Arizona State, at the 9th percentile in rushing value, 115 yards on 29 carries; Missouri State, 37 on 23) and lost to the two that grade well (Kentucky at the 74th, 156 on 36; LSU at the 80th, 194 on 38). Arkansas, at the 12th, is the complication: 103 on 22 in the box, but the backs alone went 18 for 97, 5.4 a carry, nearly double their season rate, and the Week 5 recap graded the backs' chip partly for that reason. Missouri's run game grades at the 25th, in the Arizona State and Arkansas bin, with one back who does not. Monday's chips stand: Texas A&M, slight, against Roberts and the Tiger backs, and Texas A&M, slight, at the line. Both are held to slight by the recap's rule, one week after a partly, and by the asterisk.
The same ladder the other way, and the one with a catch. On the season's numbers A&M wins seven of the eight rows: its run defense has been very good, and Missouri's running game has been poor at nearly every stage of a run. The two blocking fronts meet at the same number, 2.88 yards a carry at the line, Missouri's blockers creating it and A&M's defenders allowing it. The one row Missouri wins is the last one, how often its first- and second-down plays work overall, and that is the quarterback's doing, not the running game's. Now the catch, which is the whole second half of this ladder: Jamal Roberts has run for 606 yards, 5.4 a carry, with six touchdowns and an 80-yard run, and he has 606 of Missouri's 860 rushing yards. The second running back, Xai'Shaun Edwards, averages 4.0, and the quarterback has 10 rushing yards all year. Roberts ran for 211 yards against Florida with runs of 77 and 80; Missouri's poor season numbers are what the other carries look like, and Missouri's coach said after that game that his team had better run the ball better on first and second down "or we're going to be in real trouble versus A&M." The honest part on A&M's side is the same as last week, one game later. A&M has given up 605 rushing yards, and the pattern holds: it held the weak running teams it played, Arizona State and Missouri State, and lost to the two good ones, Kentucky (156 yards) and LSU (194). Arkansas is the complication: a weak running team whose running backs still averaged 5.4 a carry against A&M, nearly double their usual, which is why our Sunday grading called that pick only half right. Missouri's running game, on the numbers, belongs with Arizona State's and Arkansas's, with one running back who does not. Monday's picks stand: a small A&M edge against Roberts and Missouri's backs, and a small A&M edge against Missouri's blockers, both kept small because we were half right on them a week ago and because of Roberts.
The plan that beat Arkansas meets the defense built to break it. A&M's whole Saturday was staying on schedule: it threw on 26% of its first and second downs against Arkansas, after 43% against Arizona State, 62% against Kentucky and 42% at LSU (sacks counted as throws, quarterback runs as runs, from the play-by-play of the four games we hold). Its early-down numbers are still the weakest part of its profile, success on standard downs at the 29th percentile, value per play at the 25th, explosiveness at the 21st, and it has been in passing downs on 31.9% of its snaps (33rd percentile at staying out of them). Marcel Reed's own numbers, passes and runs together, say why the run game matters so much: he is at −0.01 a play in value on standard downs and +0.26 on passing downs, with first down his worst down at −0.08. KJ Edwards is the Aggie back whose standard-down plays gain the most (+0.34 a play); Owens is at −0.03 and Carsyn Baker at −0.28. Across the line is a defense that gets ahead of the chains better than almost anyone: Missouri forces passing downs on 39.5% of opponents' snaps, the 93rd percentile and the tenth-highest share in FBS, allows early-down success at the 88th and early-down value at the 83rd, and then brings a rush with 15 sacks. That is the second tell, 60 yards on the first 15 carries, in one sentence: if A&M is in second-and-4, it is the Arkansas offense; if it is in second-and-9, it is the one from Baton Rouge.
The plan that beat Arkansas meets the defense built to break it. A&M's whole Saturday was staying out of long-yardage downs: it threw on only 26% of its first and second downs against Arkansas, after 43% against Arizona State, 62% against Kentucky and 42% at LSU. Its first and second downs are still the weakest part of its game: its plays work less often than most teams', gain less, and rarely go for big gains, and it ends up in second-and-long or third-and-long more often than most. Marcel Reed's own numbers show why the running game matters so much: his plays, passes and runs together, roughly break even on first and second down and gain value on the long-yardage downs; first down is his worst down. KJ Edwards is the A&M running back whose first- and second-down plays gain the most; Rueben Owens II is about even and Carsyn Baker loses ground. Across the line is a defense that pushes offenses into long-yardage downs better than almost anyone: 39.5% of the plays run against Missouri come on those downs, one of the ten highest shares in the country, and Missouri's defense is among the best at stopping first- and second-down plays, and then it brings a pass rush with 15 sacks. That is the second early sign, 60 yards on A&M's first 15 running plays, in one sentence: if A&M is in second-and-4, it is the team that beat Arkansas; if it is in second-and-9, it is the team that lost at LSU.
Simmons's arm, and a defense that rarely gets ahead. Missouri's early downs are Austin Simmons's: +0.32 a play on standard downs, passes and runs together, +0.78 on passing downs, +0.36 on first down. Missouri's early-down success rate is 49.3% (51st percentile) and its early-down value sits at the 66th, with a run game beside him at the 25th, so the early-down offense is average by efficiency and above it by value, which is the shape of a passing game that hits long. Missouri has been in passing downs on 30.6% of its snaps (51st). Across from him, A&M's defense allows early-down success at the 47th percentile and early-down value at the 80th, but it puts offenses in passing downs on only 26.9% of their snaps, the 7th percentile, 128th of the 138 teams. That is the Aggie coverage problem showing up a down early, as it did last week: the long second and third downs where this defense wants to live are the ones it reaches least often, and Simmons is +0.78 a play on them anyway. Roberts on early downs is +0.21 a play, +0.18 on first down and +0.24 on second. Play-action: no public play-action split exists in the data we use, so we do not print one; early-down passing value, above, is the nearest honest instrument.
Missouri's quarterback carries the load, and A&M's defense rarely gets ahead. On first and second down, Missouri's offense is mostly Austin Simmons throwing the ball: his plays gain value on first and second down, and on long-yardage downs they gain a lot. Missouri's first and second downs work about as often as an average team's, but they gain more than average, which is what a passing game that hits long throws looks like. A&M's defense is about average at stopping first- and second-down plays, and good at limiting what they gain, but it rarely pushes offenses into third-and-long: only 26.9% of opponents' plays against A&M have come on those downs, lower than all but ten teams in the country. That is A&M's pass-defense problem showing up a down early, as it did last week, and Simmons is at his best on exactly those downs anyway. Roberts gains value on first and second down. About fake-handoff passes: the numbers we use do not count them separately, so we do not print a number for them.
Craver first. Mario Craver · WR · No update for Saturday: the leading receiver left the Arkansas game with 8:17 left in the half and did not return (Austin American-Statesman, Oct 3; Elko postgame, via KBTX: "Mario was really banged up and limited tonight"). Elko's only Monday mention came in an answer about TK Norman, and it was about last week: "We knew that Mario was going to be limited so we wanted to get TK some opportunities and the most opportunities for him was going to be at the slot." No reporter question on his status for Missouri appears in the posted Q&A, and the Missouri-week depth chart, released Monday, lists him first at his receiver spot and first at punt returner, which is where it listed him last week too. The SEC's Wednesday report is the first official word. Tamarion Watkins · LB · "He should be fine": Elko's answer when asked about the freshman after Saturday's win, reported Monday (Aggies Wire, Oct 5); Watkins was added to the SEC's report as out on Thursday and missed Arkansas; no word on whether he plays Saturday, and the depth chart lists him third at one linebacker spot. Ashton Bethel-Roman · WR · Available: the game notes' participation chart has him starting at LSU and against Arkansas, and the depth chart lists him first at his spot; Monday's page carried KBTX's "working back to full health," which is not wrong, but he is a starter. Jamarion Morrow · RB · No update: no stat and no snap in the last three games per the participation chart, off the SEC's report, and still listed "-OR-" with Owens at running back on the depth chart; Elko was not asked. Tyree Adams · OL · Available, five starts in five at left tackle. The line is settled on paper now: the depth chart lists Adams, Trovon Baugh "-OR-" Blake Ivy "-OR-" Tyler Thomas at left guard, Mark Nabou Jr., Wilkin Formby at right guard and Lamont Rogers at right tackle, which is the five that started at LSU and against Arkansas (Adams, Baugh, Nabou, Formby, Rogers, per the notes' starting lineups). Elko on the switch: "Lamont Rogers was playing at a really high level and I think he's got more of an ability to move people around and we think Wilkin can play tackle or guard ... It's allowed us to get more mass and physicality across the front line." And on the group: "They are able to establish the run and our run averages and efficiencies are a lot higher." Landon Rink · DT · Available: he started against Arkansas in CJ Mims's spot ("we felt like earned the right to go out there with the first group on Saturday"), though the depth chart still lists him second behind DJ Hicks, "-OR-" with Brandon Davis-Swain. Tawfiq Byard · S · Available, the backup safety, after injuries in the spring, in camp and again as the season began; Elko: "It's just good to see him finally healthy." Bussey, Madden Williams, Riden and Sims remain out for the season; Bussey is not on the depth chart.
Craver first. Mario Craver · WR · No update for Saturday: A&M's top receiver limped off in the second quarter against Arkansas and did not come back; after the game Elko said he "was really banged up and limited tonight." On Monday, Elko mentioned him only while answering a question about another receiver, TK Norman, and only about last week: the coaches knew Craver "was going to be limited," so they got Norman ready to fill in. Nobody asked Elko whether Craver plays Saturday, at least in the transcript the school posted, and the team's lineup list for this week still has him first at his spot and first at punt returner, same as last week. The conference's official injury list comes out Wednesday evening. Tamarion Watkins · LB · "He should be fine": that is what Elko said when asked about the freshman linebacker after Saturday's win, as reported Monday; Watkins was ruled out Thursday and missed the Arkansas game; he did not say whether Watkins plays Saturday. Ashton Bethel-Roman · WR · Available: he started the last two games and is first at his spot on the lineup list; Monday's page said he was "working back to full health," which is true but undersells it. Jamarion Morrow · RB · No update: the running back has not played in three games, is not on the injury list, and is still listed alongside Owens on the lineup list; Elko was not asked. Tyree Adams · OL · Available, the left tackle, five starts in five. The blockers are settled now: the five who started the last two games, Adams, Trovon Baugh, Mark Nabou Jr., Wilkin Formby and Lamont Rogers, are the five on this week's list. Elko said Rogers "was playing at a really high level," that Formby can play tackle or guard, and that the change gave the line "more mass and physicality"; of the group as a whole, he said the running game's averages "are a lot higher." Landon Rink · DT · Available: he started in the middle of the defense against Arkansas, and Elko said he "earned the right to go out there with the first group on Saturday," though the lineup list still has him as a backup. Tawfiq Byard · S · Available, a backup safety who was hurt in the spring, in camp and again as the season began; Elko said it is "good to see him finally healthy." Four players remain out for the year: Terry Bussey, Madden Williams, Tiger Riden Jr. and Chace Sims.
Missouri. Eli Drinkwitz's weekly session is Tuesday (Missouri's game notes), so there is no Monday word from him; Wednesday's edition carries it. Darris Smith · EDGE · Missed the Florida game and Langden Kitchen · EDGE · Missed the Florida game, both with lower-body injuries, and both are listed first at their spots on Missouri's depth chart for this week (Smith at the jack, Kitchen at end), which is a depth chart and not a ruling; the Columbia Daily Tribune's Monday guide names them as "the main names to watch" on this week's SEC reports, and notes both began last week as questionable and were ruled out later in the week. Without them against Florida, Daeden Hopkins · EDGE · Available started at one end (49 snaps) and Sterling Webb · DT · Available at the other, with Jaden Jones, Malik Bryant and Kamauryn Morgan rotating (Missouri On SI, Oct 4; Kansas City Star, Oct 4). Ahmad Hardy · RB · Out, and expected to stay out: Drinkwitz has said he needs two full weeks of practice from last year's All-American before he considers playing him, and the Tribune reports no indication Hardy is back practicing; he is not on the depth chart. Jamal Roberts · RB · Available, first at running back, no injury news dated this week. Cayden Green · OL · Available at left tackle, and the notes say the five (Green, Tristan Wilson, Dominick Giudice, Curtis Peagler, Luke Work) have started every game but the opener, when Jack Lange started at left tackle. Nothing dated this week on Simmons, Lee or Olugbode, all listed as starters.
Missouri. Missouri's coach, Eli Drinkwitz, holds his weekly press conference on Tuesdays, so there is nothing from him yet; Wednesday's edition will have it. Darris Smith · EDGE · Missed the Florida game and Langden Kitchen · EDGE · Missed the Florida game: Missouri's two starting edge rushers both sat out with lower-body injuries, and both are listed first at their spots on Missouri's lineup list for this week, which is a list and not a promise. The Columbia Daily Tribune says they are the main names to watch on this week's official injury lists; both started last week as "questionable" and were ruled out later in the week. In their place against Florida, Daeden Hopkins · EDGE · Available started at one end and Sterling Webb · DT · Available at the other. Ahmad Hardy · RB · Out, and expected to stay out: Drinkwitz has said he needs to see two full weeks of practice from last year's star running back before he considers playing him, and there is no sign that has started; he is not on the lineup list. Jamal Roberts · RB · Available, no injury news. Cayden Green · OL · Available at left tackle; Missouri's five blockers have started together in every game but the first. Nothing new on the quarterback or the two top receivers, all listed as starters.
What it changes. No chip, no tell and not the call. Two things get sharper. Monday's Game Plan built the protection chip from Missouri's rush with Smith and Kitchen out; if the SEC's Wednesday report returns one or both, the rush that already has 15 sacks gets its starters back, and the chip was Missouri's either way. And the Aggie line is now the five that ran for 231, on paper and in Elko's words, which is what the second tell needs. Craver's status is the question Wednesday's report answers first; Monday's availability block now carries a dated pointer to this page.
What it changes. None of Monday's picks, and not the score. Two things get sharper. Monday's pick on A&M's pass blocking was made with Missouri's two edge rushers out; if Wednesday's injury list brings one or both back, a pass rush that already has 15 sacks gets its starters back, and that pick was Missouri's either way. And A&M's blockers are now the same five who ran for 231 yards, on paper and in Elko's words, which is what our second early sign needs. Whether Craver plays is the first thing Wednesday's list answers; Monday's page now points here.
Texas A&M: Rueben Owens II, RB (70 carries for 291, 4.2 a carry, long 16, a touchdown; seven catches for 56), the volume back, 14 for 43 against Arkansas; KJ Edwards, RB (28 for 181, 6.5 a carry, two touchdowns, long 20, the longest by an Aggie back this year; 11 for 66 and both scores Saturday), the Aggie back whose early-down plays gain the most value; Carsyn Baker, RB (29 for 101, three touchdowns; 12 for 26 Saturday); Jamarion Morrow, RB (16 for 56 and a touchdown, all in the first two games; no stat in the last three). Marcel Reed, QB, is the second-busiest runner (43 carries for 170 with sacks counted, two touchdowns, long 40; 9 for 66 and a 23 against Arkansas). The tight ends who block on early downs: Houston Thomas, TE (five catches), Micah Riley, TE (listed as Micah Riley-Ducker in the stats file; three catches and a touchdown) and Kiotti Armstrong, TE (two catches for 62, the 54-yarder Saturday). The line: Tyree Adams, OL, played against Arkansas (a false start in the second quarter), and Lamont Rogers, OL, was flagged for holding; which five start in Columbia is Monday's depth chart's question, below. The run fits: Noah Mikhail, LB (26 tackles, the team lead), Ray Coney, LB (23, 1.5 for loss), Daymion Sanford, LB (13, one for loss), T.J. Searcy, DE (18, 2.5 for loss, a sack), Landon Rink, DT (12, 2.5 for loss; with Brooks, the fourth-and-goal stop on Russell at the 1), DJ Hicks, DT (10, 1.5 for loss, three hurries), CJ Mims, DT and Anto Saka, DE (two for loss each), and behind them Marcus Ratcliffe, S (21) and Dalton Brooks, S (20). Missouri: Jamal Roberts, RB (113 for 606, 5.4 a carry, six touchdowns, long 80; eight catches for 76); Xai'Shaun Edwards, RB (33 for 133, 4.0, a touchdown, long 17); Anthony Favrow, RB (8 for 30); Ahmad Hardy, RB, last year's All-American, is out. Austin Simmons, QB, has 12 carries for 10 yards with sacks counted, which is to say Missouri's quarterback does not run. Brett Norfleet, TE (eight catches for 66, a touchdown), the tight end who blocks. The front: Daeden Hopkins, EDGE (14 tackles, seven for loss, 6.5 sacks), Jason Dowell, DT (2.5 for loss, two sacks), Marquis Gracial, DT (2.5 for loss), Sterling Webb, DT (a sack; started at end against Florida with Darris Smith, EDGE, and Langden Kitchen, EDGE, out), Nicholas Rodriguez, LB (46 tackles, the team lead, 2.5 for loss, a sack), Robert Woodyard Jr., LB (32, two for loss), and the safeties Santana Banner, S (42 tackles, second on the team) and Kensley Louidor-Faustin, S (23 tackles, five for loss, the most on the team after Hopkins), which on a front this good says the safeties are in the run fit by design, not by default.
Texas A&M: the running backs are Rueben Owens II, who carries it most (291 yards on 70 carries, about 4.2 a carry), KJ Edwards, who has gained the most per carry (6.5) and scored twice Saturday, Carsyn Baker (three touchdowns), and Jamarion Morrow, who has not played in the last three games. Quarterback Marcel Reed runs too, and had a 23-yard run Saturday. Tight ends Houston Thomas, Micah Riley and Kiotti Armstrong help block. The blockers: Tyree Adams and Lamont Rogers both played against Arkansas; which five start Saturday is a question for the team's official lineup list, below. The defenders who stop the run: linebackers Noah Mikhail (a team-high 26 tackles), Ray Coney and Daymion Sanford, end T.J. Searcy, the big men in the middle Landon Rink, DJ Hicks and CJ Mims, end Anto Saka, and safeties Marcus Ratcliffe and Dalton Brooks behind them. Missouri: running back Jamal Roberts (606 yards, 5.4 a carry, six touchdowns, an 80-yard run), Xai'Shaun Edwards (4.0 a carry) and Anthony Favrow; last year's star back, Ahmad Hardy, is out. Quarterback Austin Simmons does not run: 10 rushing yards all year. Tight end Brett Norfleet blocks and has a touchdown catch. On defense, edge rusher Daeden Hopkins (6.5 sacks), linemen Jason Dowell, Marquis Gracial and Sterling Webb, who started on the edge against Florida with the two regular starters, Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen, out; linebackers Nicholas Rodriguez (a team-high 46 tackles) and Robert Woodyard Jr.; and safeties Santana Banner, second on the team in tackles, and Kensley Louidor-Faustin, who has five tackles behind the line, which for a front this good means the safeties are part of the plan against the run, not the last resort.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. A&M's run game is an improved but ordinary unit, value per carry at the 44th percentile, that meets the best front on its schedule outside Baton Rouge; it grinds better than it breaks, and against a front that stuffs 27.5% of runs, a grind is the thing most at risk. Missouri's run game sits at the bottom of the second ladder on the season's numbers and in the middle of the country in one man: Roberts is 70% of the rushing yards, and the chip is slight because of him. The Aggie run defense's season bar is, again, the number on this page we trust least: built on Arizona State and Missouri State, beaten by Kentucky and LSU, and tested last by Arkansas backs who went 18 for 97. The structural mismatch the game tests first is the second tell: 60 yards on A&M's first 15 carries, Reed's included, sacks excluded. For scale, from the play-by-play, those first 15 went for 47 against Arizona State, 71 against Kentucky, 74 at LSU and 86 against Arkansas; LSU is the warning, because A&M cleared the number there and finished at 2.8 a carry in the box, so the tell measures the opening, not the day. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Missouri at the line (w6-e2), Missouri, slight, on the backs against the Tiger run defense (w6-e3), Texas A&M, slight, against Roberts and the Tiger backs (w6-e7), Texas A&M, slight, at the Tiger line (w6-e8). The call stays Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23. One correction, applied to the Game Plan this morning: Monday's page said the Aggie front held Arkansas's backs to 3.8 a carry. That figure was A&M's own backs (39 for 149); Arkansas's went 18 for 97, 5.4, as the Week 5 recap had it. The chip it sat under, w6-e7, was already slight and already carried the recap's partly; it does not move, and the Game Plan now says so in place.
Our bottom line for today. A&M's running game is better than it was but still only average, and it faces the best run-stopping front on its schedule other than LSU's; it gains its yards a few at a time rather than in big chunks, and a front that stops one run in four for no gain is the kind that breaks that plan. Missouri's running game is, on the season's numbers, among the weakest in the country, and in one player it is not: Roberts has 70% of Missouri's rushing yards, and he is why our pick here is only a small A&M edge. The number on this page we trust least is, again, A&M's good run-defense record: it came against Arizona State and Missouri State, Kentucky and LSU ran through it, and Arkansas's running backs averaged 5.4 a carry against it on Saturday. The first thing the game will answer is our second early sign: 60 yards on A&M's first 15 running plays, counting Reed's runs and leaving out sacks. For comparison, those first 15 went for 47 yards against Arizona State, 71 against Kentucky, 74 at LSU and 86 against Arkansas. LSU is the warning: A&M beat 60 there and still finished under 3 yards a carry, so the sign tells you about the start, not the whole game. Monday's picks do not change: a Missouri edge at the line and a small Missouri edge against A&M's running backs, a small A&M edge against Roberts and Missouri's backs, and a small A&M edge against Missouri's blockers. The score we picked stays Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23. One fix, made to Monday's page this morning: it said A&M's defense held Arkansas's running backs to 3.8 yards a carry. That number was A&M's own running backs; Arkansas's averaged 5.4, as our Sunday grading said. The pick it sat under was already a small edge, and it does not change; Monday's page now says so.
Updated Oct 6, before publication on the site, after the Layer 2 fact-check: Elko's "He should be fine" on Watkins came after Saturday's game, not in Monday's session; Arizona State's early-down throw share is 43%, not 42%; Drinkwitz's session is Tuesday, with no time sourced; Rink started against Arkansas but is listed second on the depth chart; the down of Roberts's two long runs is not in our data and is gone; Byard added.Updated Oct 6, after our fact-check and before this page went on the site: Elko's "He should be fine" about Watkins was said after Saturday's game, not Monday; A&M threw on 43% of its early downs against Arizona State, not 42%; we had no source for the time of Missouri's Tuesday press conference, so it is gone; Rink started last week but is still listed as a backup; we took out a claim about which down Roberts's long runs came on; Byard added. Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week6: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware, through the Week 5 games; season, player and player-value stats for both teams; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file spells a name differently the roster wins), Missouri's five game boxes (data/2026/week6/missouri__game_boxes.json, one call to our data service this morning, for the rushing lines both ways by game), and the play-by-play and box scores of A&M's games against Arizona State, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas (data/2026/week2 to week5, postgame files: the early-down mix, the first 15 carries, the rushing lines allowed; Missouri State's line is the season total minus the other four). No number on this page rests on SP+, which our data service had not updated past the Week 4 games at the Monday build. Availability and Monday's words: Texas A&M Athletics (Oct 5: Elko's Monday Q&A as posted, the game notes with the depth chart, starting lineups and participation chart), the Austin American-Statesman (Oct 3, 7:51 PM CT: Craver off at 8:17, Elko's postgame line via KBTX), KBTX (Oct 4: Craver limited), Aggies Wire via Yahoo (Oct 5, 5:10 PM CT: Watkins), the Columbia Daily Tribune via Yahoo (Oct 5, 12:24 PM CT: Smith, Kitchen, Hardy), Missouri's game notes (Oct 5: the depth chart, starting lineups, games played, Drinkwitz's Tuesday session), Missouri On SI (Oct 4: the edge snap counts against Florida), the Kansas City Star via Yahoo (Oct 4: Webb at end), Missouri On SI (Oct 3: Drinkwitz's "first and second down" line, Roberts's 211 and the 77- and 80-yard runs). Drinkwitz's Tuesday session had not happened at build time; Wednesday's edition carries it. The sweep ran on search plus fetch from the laptop; TexAgs and GigEm247 live notes, the Houston Chronicle's body text and the Columbia Daily Tribune's and Kansas City Star's own sites were paywalled or blocked, and the last two were read via Yahoo. Everything dated Saturday, Oct 3, or later counts; every status on this page is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams. The correction to Monday's 3.8 figure rests on the Week 5 recap, which took the backs' 18 for 97 from the official box; A&M's own backs were 39 for 149. Definitions in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's first availability report is Wednesday evening; Thursday's edition carries it.