Right winner, the shape light: PARTLY. We said Texas 28, Ole Miss 25; Texas won 34–27. The market (Texas by 3) was off by 4 and the model (Texas by 11.2) by 4.2. Texas led 24–3 at the half on Ryan Wingo's 50-yard touchdown, two short touchdown runs and Rasheem Biles's interception at the 2; Ole Miss scored 21 straight, starting with Blake Purchase's strip-sack of Arch Manning that Kam Franklin recovered in the end zone, to tie it early in the fourth. Raleek Brown's 47-yard run broke open the winning drive, he finished with 157, and Jelani McDonald intercepted Trinidad Chambliss in the end zone on the last play. All four WRONG chips went in Texas's favor: the two that gave Ole Miss the Texas run game, the Even on the Rebel backs, and Chambliss against the coverage, 25 of 52 with three interceptions. Every pregame claim is graded in the recap, misses first.
We picked the right winner, but the score was higher and the margin bigger than we said, so our prediction was PARTLY right. We wrote down Texas 28, Ole Miss 25, and Texas won 34 to 27. Texas led 24 to 3 at halftime; Ole Miss scored 21 in a row, starting with a sack that knocked the ball out of Manning's hands for a touchdown, and tied it early in the fourth quarter. Raleek Brown's 47-yard run broke open the winning drive, and Jelani McDonald intercepted the last pass of the game in the end zone. All four of our WRONG calls went in Texas's favor: we expected Ole Miss to stop Texas's running game, and Texas ran for 207 yards; and we expected Ole Miss's backs and quarterback to do better than they did. Every prediction we made is graded in the recap, the misses first.
The words we use: the call was the score we wrote down before the game and left alone · the market is the betting line, the number the people wagering real money expected the favorite to win by · the model is our computer's own guess, printed so you can compare · tells were the three early signs we said to watch; each is graded below on whether the read was right · edges are the pregame matchup calls, left exactly as printed.
The chips below are our pregame calls, left as printed. Six of the twelve board pairings graded RIGHT, two PARTLY, four WRONG, and all four WRONGs went in Texas's favor: the Texas line and the Texas backs against the Rebel front, both Ole Miss's on the board, ran for 240 on 38 without the sacks and kneel-downs; the Rebel backs, Even, ran 23 for 82; Chambliss against the coverage, Ole Miss slight, threw three interceptions. The Rebel rush got its one big play and the Rebel protection kept Texas off Chambliss entirely, both as printed. The full regrade is in the recap.
Before the game we picked a winner for each of 12 matchups, and the list below is exactly what we printed. We got 6 right, 2 half right and 4 WRONG, and all four WRONG calls went in Texas's favor: Texas ran the ball far better than we expected, and Ole Miss's runners and quarterback did far worse.
The upset math applied: the base rate we printed said favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points in the first five weeks were 110-86 since 2023, with a median margin of 3, and the moneylines gave Texas about 59%. Texas was one more home favorite's win, by 7.
What the history said: teams favored by about 3 points this early had won 110 games and lost 86, usually by about 3, and the odds gave Texas about a 59% chance. Texas won, by 7.
Our record so far: on the final score, 2 right, 8 partly, 3 wrong; on tells, 19 right, 17 partly, 3 wrong; on matchup edges, 64 right, 44 partly, 47 wrong. Tells are the shakiest thing we print, so read them as things to watch, not verdicts.
Margin: Texas by 7 · Line was Texas −3 at both books Friday and Saturday · Total 61 against 53.5 and 54 · Season line, model vs. market, all fourteen graded rows: market 9, model 5 on margin; straight up market 11-3, model 10-4
Settled against the box, from the SEC's Friday reports; no 90-minute report could be opened. Texas: EDGE Colin Simmons and EDGE Richard Wesley, out, have no stat, and Texas had no sack; RB Hollywood Smothers, out, has none, and Raleek Brown (23) and Michael Terry III (8) took the carries; WR Kaliq Lockett and OL Jaydon Chatman, out, have none; RB Derrek Cooper, probable, one catch, no carry; OL Jackson Christian, questionable, cannot be settled from the box. Ole Miss: the eight outs have no stat; OL Terez Davis, questionable, cannot be settled from the box; RB Kewan Lacy ran 16 times. No player listed out or doubtful appears in the box score.