The money downs, both ways, in full: the pass ladder for each offense against the pass defense it meets, protection against havoc, short yardage and the rush, Tuesday's press conferences in Columbia and College Station, and the bodies who decide it. In the four games we hold play-by-play for, A&M has converted 17 of its 27 third-down runs and 8 of its 33 third-down throws; Missouri's front gets offenses into passing downs, second and long or third and long, more often than all but nine defenses in the country. The other way, the widest rung on either ladder is Austin Simmons on the money downs against the Aggie coverage. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them. The SEC's first availability report of the week comes out this evening; Thursday's edition carries it.
Third down is the play where you either get the yards or, most of the time, punt. Today we look at how well each team throws when it has to, how well each defense stops it, who blocks and who rushes, the short-yardage plays both teams keep in the bag, and what the coaches said on Tuesday. In the four games we have play-by-play for, A&M has picked up the first down on 17 of its 27 third-down runs and on only 8 of its 33 third-down throws; Missouri's defense pushes offenses into second-and-long or third-and-long more often than all but nine defenses in the country. Going the other way, the biggest mismatch on the page is Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons on the must-pass downs, second-and-long and third-and-long, against A&M's pass defense. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them. The conference's official injury list comes out this evening; Thursday's edition carries it.
Read it top to bottom: whether A&M's throws work at all (efficiency, then value per throw), whether they work when everyone in the stadium knows a throw is coming (the money downs: second and long, third and fourth and five or more, three rungs), whether the line keeps the rush off Reed (protection against havoc, all plays), and whether anything goes over the top. Missouri wins six of the seven rungs, and the one it does not win it loses by a point: A&M's money-down success rate sits at the 69th percentile (35.4% of those plays work), Missouri's money-down success allowed at the 68th (26.1%). That rung was the Aggies' one above-average passing number a week ago and it is still the only one clearly above (protection sits at the 52nd); the number on either side of it is the problem. Missouri's defense makes havoc on 22.0% of plays, the 93rd percentile and the tenth-highest share in FBS, against an Aggie protection at the 52nd, and it forces passing downs on 39.5% of opponents' snaps, also the tenth-highest share, so the money downs come up more often against this defense than against any A&M has met but LSU's. The honest split on protection: the havoc A&M allows is not from the front, where it sits at the 80th percentile (front-seven havoc allowed, 7.0% of plays, tied for the 25th-lowest figure in FBS), but from the back end, at the 19th (defensive-back havoc allowed, 7.0%), which is Reed's four interceptions and the passes knocked down; Missouri's secondary makes defensive-back havoc at the 83rd (Chris Graves Jr. six breakups, Sione Laulea five and an interception, Jahlil Florence four and an interception). Then the play-by-play, which is the headline. In the four games we hold, A&M has converted 25 of 60 third downs, 17 of 27 when it ran and 8 of 33 when it threw (sacks counted as throws). Against Arkansas it was 9 of 16, and all nine were runs: 10 third-down runs, nine converted, six throws, none. By distance across the four games: 12 of 17 at one to three yards, 7 of 16 at four to six, 6 of 27 at seven or more, and on those 27 long ones A&M threw 21 times. At LSU, where it threw on 12 of 15 third downs, it converted four. Reed's own value per play is still best on third down (+0.39) and worst on first (−0.08), and both are true at once: he is good on third down when it is short enough to run. The two rungs at the bottom belong to nobody, Aggie money-down explosiveness at the 8th percentile (127th of 138) against a Missouri defense that allows it at the 14th (118th), and big-pass danger 14 against 16, which is why Monday's deep-ball chip is Even. Monday's chips stand: Missouri on Reed's passing game against the secondary (30 against 54 at value, with Missouri at the 80th at pass success allowed), Missouri in the pocket (built from the Tiger rush, below), Even on the deep game.
Read it top to bottom: whether A&M's passes work at all, whether they work on the downs where everyone knows a pass is coming (three rows for those), whether the blockers keep rushers away from quarterback Marcel Reed, and whether A&M ever completes a long one. Missouri wins six of the seven rows, and the one it does not win is a dead heat: on the must-pass downs A&M's plays work more often than about 69 of every 100 teams', its one clearly above-average passing number, and Missouri's defense stops those plays about as well. The trouble is what sits on either side of that row. Missouri's defense gets into the backfield or knocks the ball loose on 22% of plays, one of the ten highest rates in the country, against A&M blockers who are about average, and it forces offenses into long-yardage downs more often than all but nine defenses, so those must-pass downs should come up more often Saturday than in any game A&M has played except LSU. One honest detail about the blocking: A&M's blockers keep the front rushers out better than most teams; the damage A&M allows comes from the secondary, Reed's four interceptions and the passes knocked down, and Missouri's defensive backs are good at exactly that (Chris Graves Jr. has knocked down six passes, Sione Laulea five with an interception, Jahlil Florence four with an interception). Then the play-by-play, which is the story. In the four games we have, A&M converted 25 of 60 third downs: 17 of 27 when it ran, 8 of 33 when it threw (counting sacks as throws). Against Arkansas it went 9 of 16, and all nine were runs; A&M threw six times on third down that night and converted none. By distance over the four games: 12 of 17 with one to three yards to go, 7 of 16 with four to six, 6 of 27 with seven or more, and on those 27 long ones A&M threw 21 times. At LSU, where it threw on 12 of 15 third downs, it converted four. Reed's best down by our numbers is still third and his worst is first, and both things are true: he is good on third down when it is short enough to run. The two rows at the bottom belong to nobody: A&M almost never makes a big play on the must-pass downs, Missouri's defense gives up more of them than most, and long passes on any down sit near the bottom for both, which is why Monday called the deep-ball matchup a toss-up. Monday's picks stand: a Missouri edge for its pass defense against Reed, a Missouri edge on the pass rush against A&M's blockers (built from Missouri's rush, below), and a toss-up on long passes.
The mirror, and the ladder with the widest rung on the page. Missouri's passing game produces value at the 92nd percentile (11th in FBS) and succeeds at the 82nd (25th), and Simmons is 92 of 136 for 1,270, 9.3 an attempt, 13 touchdowns, no interceptions; the Aggie coverage allows passing value at the 27th and success at the 25th. That is Monday's chip w6-e6, built from the quarterback by the Week 5 lesson, and the money-down rungs say why the lesson mattered. On passing downs, Missouri's explosiveness sits at the 93rd percentile (2.40 a play, tenth in FBS) and the Aggie defense allows it at the 6th (2.42, 130th of 138, only eight defenses allow more); that is an 87-point rung, the widest on either ladder this week, and Simmons is the reason: +1.04 a play on third down, his best down, +0.78 on passing downs, with Donovan Olugbode at +1.94 a play on third down (27 catches for 416, six touchdowns, a 65-yarder) and Cayden Lee at +0.94 (33 for 496, 15.0 a catch). Money-down value tells the same story a rung up, 76 against 11 (the Aggie defense allows +0.43 a play on passing downs, 123rd of 138). Now the two rungs A&M wins, and the paradox they carry from last week, one game older. The Aggie defense allows third-down conversions at 26.4%, 14 of 53 for the season, and in the four games we hold it allowed 13 of 43: Arizona State 3 of 12, Kentucky 3 of 9, LSU 4 of 12, Arkansas 3 of 10, with offenses 3 of 19 at seven or more to go. On money-down success it grades at the 62nd (27.1% allowed). Both are true alongside the 6th-percentile explosiveness because the Aggie defense forces passing downs on only 26.9% of snaps (7th percentile, 128th of 138) and because the plays that beat it there are enormous: of the 16 completions of 20 or more yards it has allowed in the four games, six came on passing downs (Arizona State's 58 on third and 7 and 23 on second and 13, Kentucky's 53 on second and 18, 28 on second and 10 and 32 on second and 8, LSU's 35 on third and 7); Arkansas's one, a 26-yarder, came on second and 4. Third down is still not where A&M gives up drives; it is where it gives up the play that decides one, and Simmons is the best quarterback it has met at exactly that play. The other rung A&M wins is the rush, havoc at the 75th percentile against a Missouri protection that allows it at the 22nd (16.4% of plays, 107th of 138), and the counter is the one Monday printed: Missouri has allowed five sacks in five games (one to Arkansas-Pine Bluff, two to Mississippi State, two to Florida, none to Kansas or Troy) because Simmons gets the ball out, and A&M has five all season, four in the games we hold and all four on passing downs (Marco Jones on third and 9 against Arizona State and third and 11 against Arkansas, DJ Hicks and Anto Saka on third and 5 and T.J. Searcy on second and 11 against Kentucky). Simmons said Tuesday night what he wants from third down: "staying out of third and long situations, because Texas A&M's really big on these exotic looks on third down," and "staying in front of the sticks, staying short on third down." Monday's chips stand: Missouri on Simmons against the coverage (w6-e6), Texas A&M, slight, on the rush, held to the third tell (w6-e9), Missouri on Lee, Olugbode and the deep game against the big-play problem (w6-e10, 70 against 17 on the bottom rung).
The same ladder the other way, and the one with the biggest gap on the page. Missouri's passing game is among the best in the country by both how often its throws work and how much they gain, and Austin Simmons has completed 92 of 136 passes for 1,270 yards, 9.3 a throw, 13 touchdowns and no interceptions; A&M's pass defense has been in the bottom third of the country by both measures. That is Monday's pick on this matchup, built from how good the quarterback is, which was the lesson from last week, and the must-pass rows show why. On those downs, Missouri makes big plays more often than all but nine offenses in the country, and A&M's defense allows them more often than all but eight defenses; that gap, 87 points on our scale, is the widest on the page this week, and Simmons is the reason: third down is his best down by our numbers, and his two main receivers, Donovan Olugbode (27 catches, 416 yards, six touchdowns, a 65-yarder) and Cayden Lee (33 catches, 496 yards), both do their best work there. The row above it, how much each must-pass play gains, says the same thing: each one gains a lot for Missouri and a lot against A&M. Now the two rows A&M wins, and the puzzle they carry over from last week, one game later. A&M's defense allows teams to convert only 26.4% of their third downs, 14 of 53 this season, and in the four games we hold it allowed 13 of 43 (Arizona State 3 of 12, Kentucky 3 of 9, LSU 4 of 12, Arkansas 3 of 10), with offenses converting only 3 of 19 when they needed seven or more. How can a defense that gives up so many big plays on those downs also stop them so often? Because A&M rarely gets offenses into long-yardage downs at all (only 26.9% of opponents' plays, lower than all but ten teams in the country), and because when it does, the plays that beat it are huge: of the 16 completions of 20 yards or more A&M has allowed in those four games, six came on must-pass downs (Arizona State's 58-yarder on third-and-7 and a 23-yarder on second-and-13, Kentucky's 53-yarder on second-and-18 plus a 28 and a 32 on second-and-long, LSU's 35-yarder on third-and-7); Arkansas's one long completion came on second-and-4. Third down is still not where A&M gives up drives; it is where it gives up the one play that decides a drive, and Simmons is the best quarterback it has faced at exactly that play. The other row A&M wins is the pass rush: its front gets into the backfield more often than most, and Missouri's blockers let defenders in more often than most. The catch is the one Monday printed: Missouri has allowed only five sacks all year (once by Arkansas-Pine Bluff, twice by Mississippi State, twice by Florida, never by Kansas or Troy) because he gets rid of the ball, and A&M has only five sacks all season, four of them in the games we hold and all four on must-pass downs (Marco Jones twice, DJ Hicks and Anto Saka sharing one, T.J. Searcy one). Simmons said Tuesday night what he wants from third down: "staying out of third and long situations, because Texas A&M's really big on these exotic looks on third down," and "staying in front of the sticks, staying short on third down." Monday's picks stand: a Missouri edge for Simmons against A&M's pass defense, a slight A&M edge on the pass rush that has to prove itself early, and a Missouri edge for its long-pass game against A&M's big-play problem.
The Aggies' best line on either ladder meets a front that stuffs one run in four. Power success, the share of third- and fourth-and-two-or-less runs that convert, is A&M's best number on the page: 84% (91st percentile, 12th in FBS; 13 of 17 in the four games we hold) against a Missouri front that allows 68% (59th). It is where third down has been going right for A&M, and against Arkansas it went entirely right: six third downs of three or less, six runs, six conversions (KJ Edwards for 2 and for 9, Rueben Owens II for 6, Carsyn Baker for 1, Reed for a 1-yard touchdown and for 17). The catch is the front it meets. Missouri stuffs 27.5% of runs at or behind the line (93rd percentile) and Drinkwitz spent Tuesday on Reed's legs: "I think the biggest thing for us is we've got to try to prevent his superpower, which is his running the ball to affect us negatively as a team," and on Tuesday night's radio show, "He's done a really good job of playing the game the way he needs to play it in order to win." Santana Banner, the Tiger safety: "He's an athletic quarterback, he's very good with his feet and he likes to get vertical scrambling." The other way, Missouri converts 79% of its short-yardage runs (70th percentile) against an Aggie front that allows 62% (80th; 5 of 8 in the games we hold), and Jamal Roberts, +0.21 a play on standard downs, is at −0.04 on third down. Fourth down: A&M is 7 of 13, Missouri 3 of 5; the Aggie defense has allowed 4 of 10, Missouri's 5 of 11. Drinkwitz, asked about Roberts carrying the load, on how the Aggie safeties fit against the run: "They try to trick you into a light box and then fill with the safety," and "I think Marcus Ratcliffe is one of the better safeties in the country."
A&M's best number on the page meets a defense that stops one run in four for no gain. On third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, A&M's runs convert 84% of the time, better than nearly everyone (13 of 17 in the four games we have), and Missouri's defense allows 68% on those plays, a little better than average. It is where third down has been going right for A&M, and against Arkansas it went entirely right: six third downs with three yards or less to go, six runs, six first downs (KJ Edwards for 2 and for 9, Rueben Owens II for 6, Carsyn Baker for 1, Reed for a 1-yard touchdown and for 17). The catch is the defense it meets this week. Missouri stops more than one run in four at or behind the line, and Missouri's coach, Eli Drinkwitz, spent Tuesday on Reed's running: "I think the biggest thing for us is we've got to try to prevent his superpower, which is his running the ball to affect us negatively as a team," and on his radio show that night, "He's done a really good job of playing the game the way he needs to play it in order to win." Missouri safety Santana Banner: "He's an athletic quarterback, he's very good with his feet and he likes to get vertical scrambling." Going the other way, Missouri converts 79% of its own short-yardage runs, a bit better than average, against an A&M defense that allows 62%, better than most (5 of 8 in the games we have), and Jamal Roberts, who gains ground on first and second down, roughly breaks even on third. On fourth down, A&M has converted 7 of 13 tries, Missouri 3 of 5; A&M's defense has allowed 4 of 10, Missouri's 5 of 11. Drinkwitz on how A&M's safeties play the run: "They try to trick you into a light box and then fill with the safety," and "I think Marcus Ratcliffe is one of the better safeties in the country."
The best rush on the schedule, missing its two starting edges; the Aggie rush, missing its sacks. Missouri's front-seven havoc sits at the 88th percentile (14.0% of plays, 16th in FBS) with 15 sacks in five games: Daeden Hopkins 6.5 with seven tackles for loss and three hurries, Donta Simpson 2.5 and three hurries, Jason Dowell two, Langden Kitchen, Sterling Webb and Nicholas Rodriguez one each, Kamauryn Morgan and Dante McClellan a half; by game, one against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, four at Kansas, three against Troy, four at Mississippi State, three against Florida, the last of those with Kitchen and Darris Smith out. Drinkwitz on Tuesday had both "still questionable" and said "we really won't know on those guys until Thursday or Friday"; on his radio show that night, asked about their timeline, he said "I think the bye week's coming up, and that's probably more realistic for everybody." The Aggie line allows front-seven havoc at the 80th percentile and has allowed eight sacks, six in the games we hold (two by Arizona State, four at LSU, three of those on standard downs) and none against Kentucky or Arkansas; Pro Football Focus, via KBTX, counted three pressured dropbacks on Reed against Arkansas. Elko on Monday: "They have done a better job of protecting Marcel with the exception of the end of the LSU game when we were forced to throw as much as we were." The other side is the third tell. A&M's front-seven havoc sits at the 75th percentile with five sacks all season (Jones two, Searcy and Ryan Henderson one, Hicks and Saka a half), Saka and Hicks three hurries each; PFF, via KBTX, counted 11 pressures against Arkansas, six by Jones and three by Saka. Missouri's offense allows havoc at the 22nd percentile, most of it from the back end (defensive-back havoc allowed at the 12th); against the front seven its line sits at the 48th, it has given up five sacks, and Cayden Green, the left tackle, was the Outland Trophy's player of the week after Florida and "has yet to allow a pressure, quarterback hit or sack this season" (Rock M Nation, Oct 6). Elko, asked Monday about the rush: "We saw improvement. I think game flow allows that; we still got to get better," and "If he doesn't get out of rhythm, we're going to really struggle to control him." Tawfiq Byard on Tuesday: "We got to put pressure on this guy. You know, he's real comfortable back there," and "Make him uncomfortable. Get him off his spot. Move him around." Tell 3 counts pressures on Simmons's first 20 dropbacks, sacks and hurries; this panel is why it counts hurries.
The best pass rush A&M has faced, without its two starting edge rushers; and an A&M rush that gets close without finishing. Missouri's front gets into the backfield more often than most, with 15 sacks in five games: Daeden Hopkins has 6.5 of them, Donta Simpson 2.5, Jason Dowell two, Langden Kitchen, Sterling Webb and Nicholas Rodriguez one each, Kamauryn Morgan and Dante McClellan half each. By game: one, four, three, four and three, the last of those with Kitchen and Darris Smith out. Drinkwitz said Tuesday that both are "still questionable" and that "we really won't know on those guys until Thursday or Friday"; on his radio show that night, asked when they would be back, he said "I think the bye week's coming up, and that's probably more realistic for everybody." A&M's blockers keep the front rushers out better than most teams and have allowed eight sacks, six of them in the games we have (two by Arizona State, four at LSU, three of those before an obvious passing down) and none against Kentucky or Arkansas; by Pro Football Focus's count, reported by KBTX, Reed was pressured on only three drop-backs against Arkansas. Elko on Monday: "They have done a better job of protecting Marcel with the exception of the end of the LSU game when we were forced to throw as much as we were." The other side is our third early sign. A&M's front gets into the backfield more often than most but has only five sacks all season (Marco Jones two, T.J. Searcy and Ryan Henderson one each, DJ Hicks and Anto Saka half each), and Saka and Hicks have hurried the quarterback three times each; by PFF's count, reported by KBTX, A&M pressured Arkansas's quarterback 11 times, six of them by Jones. Missouri's offense gives up disruptive plays more than most, mostly passes knocked down or picked off; its blockers are about average at keeping rushers out, have allowed only five sacks, and left tackle Cayden Green, the Outland Trophy's player of the week after Florida, "has yet to allow a pressure, quarterback hit or sack this season" (Rock M Nation, Oct 6). Elko, asked Monday about the rush: "We saw improvement. I think game flow allows that; we still got to get better," and "If he doesn't get out of rhythm, we're going to really struggle to control him." Safety Tawfiq Byard on Tuesday: "We got to put pressure on this guy. You know, he's real comfortable back there," and "Make him uncomfortable. Get him off his spot. Move him around." Monday's third sign counts how often Simmons is pressured on his first 20 drop-backs, sacks and hurries both; this box is why it counts hurries.
Craver first. Mario Craver · WR · No update for Saturday: nothing dated Tuesday. A&M's Tuesday player availability was Byard and Lamont Rogers, and neither was asked about him; the Missouri-week depth chart still lists him first at receiver and punt returner, which is a list and not a ruling, and Pro Football Focus, via KBTX's Monday grades, has him at 14 snaps against Arkansas before he left in the second quarter. Elko's last word is Monday's, in the past tense about Arkansas week ("We knew that Mario was going to be limited"). The SEC's Wednesday evening report is the first official word, and Thursday's edition carries it. Tamarion Watkins · LB · No update for Saturday: nothing dated Tuesday; Elko's "He should be fine," said after the Arkansas game and reported Monday, stands. Lamont Rogers · OL · Available, the starting right tackle since LSU, 51 snaps against Arkansas per PFF via KBTX; Tuesday: "I feel like the games I've started, the football just became so much simpler. Things are not as fast. Everything is just my pace." Blake Ivy · OL · Available: he played against Arkansas after sitting LSU (22 snaps per PFF via KBTX) and is listed "-OR-" at left guard with Trovon Baugh and Tyler Thomas. Tawfiq Byard · S · Available, Elko's defensive player of the game against Arkansas with a team-high six tackles, and Tuesday's voice on the rush, above. Bethel-Roman, Morrow, Rink and the rest are where Tuesday's edition left them; Bussey, Madden Williams, Riden and Sims remain out for the season.
Craver first. Mario Craver · WR · No update for Saturday: nothing new dated Tuesday. The two A&M players who spoke Tuesday, Byard and Lamont Rogers, were not asked about him; the team's lineup list for this week still has him first at receiver and punt returner, which is a list and not a promise, and by Pro Football Focus's count, reported by KBTX, he played 14 snaps against Arkansas before he left in the second quarter. Elko's last word was Monday's, about Arkansas week in the past tense ("We knew that Mario was going to be limited"). The conference's official injury list comes out Wednesday evening, and Thursday's edition carries it. Tamarion Watkins · LB · No update for Saturday: nothing new Tuesday; Elko's "He should be fine," said after the Arkansas game, stands. Lamont Rogers · OL · Available, the right tackle, who said Tuesday: "I feel like the games I've started, the football just became so much simpler. Things are not as fast. Everything is just my pace." Blake Ivy · OL · Available: he played against Arkansas after missing the LSU game and shares the left guard spot on the lineup list with Trovon Baugh and Tyler Thomas. Tawfiq Byard · S · Available, Elko's defensive player of the game against Arkansas, with a team-high six tackles, and Tuesday's voice on the pass rush, above. Everyone else is where Tuesday's edition left them; four players remain out for the year: Terry Bussey, Madden Williams, Tiger Riden Jr. and Chace Sims.
Missouri. Drinkwitz held his weekly session Tuesday and the radio show Tuesday night. Darris Smith · EDGE · Questionable and Langden Kitchen · EDGE · Questionable: "Langden and Darris are still questionable. It's all about can they go out and effectively affect the game in a positive way without putting themselves in jeopardy or setting them back," and "As a coach, you have to have a long-term approach. If you put them out in that game and they can't help you and they re-injure it, are you sacrificing the long-term success that you might have? So, we really won't know on those guys until Thursday or Friday" (Missouri On SI, Oct 6). That night, asked about their timeline: "We talked about it today. The reality of it is, you've got to be smart. It's a long season, and if you try to bring them back too early, you're just going to set them back and you're gonna hurt your team worse. So, you know, we'll see. I think the bye week's coming up, and that's probably more realistic for everybody" (Rock M Nation's Tiger Talk notes, Oct 6). Missouri's bye is the week of Oct 24, after Ole Miss. Both missed Florida with lower-body injuries and both are listed first at their spots on the Oct 5 depth chart. Jaden Jones · EDGE · Available, one of those who have filled in on the edge; Drinkwitz: "he's improving. I know we can count on him. He played an excellent game." Robert Woodyard Jr. · LB · Questionable, new this week: he was hurt against Florida and came back in. "Rob was able to battle his way back in. I think a little bit of that was adrenaline. So we'll have to be smart with him this week and see. We were beat up after that game. That was a physical SEC game. I would say right now he's going to be questionable." Woodyard is third on the team with 32 tackles and has an interception. Ahmad Hardy · RB · Out, no timetable: "he's not able to participate in a two-week ramp up, yet," the ramp-up the program requires before he plays, and "when he's ready, he's ready. Our job as a team is to do the very best we can until he's ready to go. If that's in a couple of weeks, great. And if it's not, it's not" (ABC17, Oct 6). Roberts, Hopkins, Webb and the line are where Tuesday's edition left them; nothing dated this week on Simmons, Lee or Olugbode.
Missouri. Drinkwitz held his weekly press conference Tuesday and his radio show Tuesday night. Darris Smith · EDGE · Questionable and Langden Kitchen · EDGE · Questionable: Missouri's two starting edge rushers are "still questionable," he said, and "we really won't know on those guys until Thursday or Friday"; the question, in his words, is whether they can "effectively affect the game in a positive way without putting themselves in jeopardy or setting them back." That night, asked when they would be back, he said "if you try to bring them back too early, you're just going to set them back and you're gonna hurt your team worse," and "I think the bye week's coming up, and that's probably more realistic for everybody." Missouri's week off is two weeks away, after the Ole Miss game. Both missed the Florida game and both are still listed first at their spots on the team's lineup list. Jaden Jones · EDGE · Available, one of those who have filled in on the edge; Drinkwitz: "he's improving. I know we can count on him. He played an excellent game." Robert Woodyard Jr. · LB · Questionable, new this week: the linebacker was hurt against Florida and came back into the game. "Rob was able to battle his way back in. I think a little bit of that was adrenaline. So we'll have to be smart with him this week and see," and "I would say right now he's going to be questionable." Woodyard is third on the team in tackles. Ahmad Hardy · RB · Out, no timetable: Missouri's star running back from last year is "not able to participate in a two-week ramp up, yet," the practice period the team requires before he plays, and Drinkwitz said "when he's ready, he's ready. Our job as a team is to do the very best we can until he's ready to go. If that's in a couple of weeks, great. And if it's not, it's not." Everyone else on the Missouri side is where Tuesday's edition left them.
What it changes. No chip, no tell and not the call. Monday built the protection chip from Missouri's season rush, noting it got home against Florida with Smith and Kitchen out, and the chip was Missouri's that way; Drinkwitz's Tuesday night answer points toward the same rush on Saturday, and Thursday or Friday says for sure. Woodyard is a new name on the list and is not on the Game Plan's availability block, which now carries a dated Oct 7 pointer to this page. Craver's status is still the question the SEC's report answers first.
What it changes. None of Monday's picks, and not the score. Monday's pick on A&M's pass blocking was made with Missouri's two edge rushers out, and it was Missouri's that way; Drinkwitz's Tuesday night answer points toward the same Missouri rush on Saturday, and Thursday or Friday will say for sure. Woodyard is a new name on the list; Monday's page now points here. Whether Craver plays is still the first thing the conference's list will answer.
Texas A&M: Marcel Reed, QB (85 of 149 for 908, 6.1 an attempt, six touchdowns, four interceptions; 13 of 19 for 170 against Arkansas; third down is his best down at +0.39 a play and first his worst at −0.08, passes and runs together). Mario Craver, WR (23 catches for 235, two scores, the volume target, +0.84 a play on third down; no ruling); Isaiah Horton, WR (17 for 248, three touchdowns, +0.92 a play on third down and +0.67 on passing downs, the money-down target, and the only Aggie with a 20-yard completion on a passing down in the games we hold, 27 yards on third and 10 at LSU); Rueben Owens II, RB (seven catches for 56 as the outlet); KJ Edwards, RB (+0.92 a play on third down, +1.13 on passing downs, on a handful of plays each); Kelshaun Johnson, WR (four catches, +1.20 on passing downs), Aaron Gregory, WR (four for 41 and a score), TK Norman, WR (three for 36), Ashton Bethel-Roman, WR (five for 32); Houston Thomas, TE (five catches), Kiotti Armstrong, TE (two for 62, the 54-yarder). The line: Tyree Adams, OL, Trovon Baugh, OL, Mark Nabou Jr., OL, Wilkin Formby, OL, Lamont Rogers, OL, the five that started at LSU and against Arkansas, with Blake Ivy, OL, and Tyler Thomas, OL, in the left guard rotation. The rush: Marco Jones, DE (two sacks, two hurries, an interception returned 55 yards for a score), T.J. Searcy, DE (a sack, 2.5 for loss, two hurries, 18 tackles), Ryan Henderson, DE (a sack), DJ Hicks, DT (half a sack, three hurries), Anto Saka, DE (half a sack, three hurries), Landon Rink, DT (2.5 for loss), CJ Mims, DT (two for loss). In coverage: Bravion Rogers, DB (four pass breakups, the team lead), Jordan Shaw, CB (three), Julio Humphrey, CB (two, and an interception returned 45 yards for a touchdown; the stats file spells him Julian), Marcus Ratcliffe, S (21 tackles, an interception), Dalton Brooks, S (20, an interception), Tawfiq Byard, S, Dezz Ricks, CB, Rickey Gibson III, CB; Noah Mikhail, LB (26 tackles, the team lead) and Ray Coney, LB (23) underneath. Missouri: Austin Simmons, QB (92 of 136 for 1,270, 9.3 an attempt, 13 touchdowns, no interceptions; +1.04 a play on third down, his best down, +0.78 on passing downs); Matt Zollers, QB (8 of 13 for 87 in relief). Donovan Olugbode, WR (27 for 416, 15.4 a catch, six touchdowns, a long of 65; +1.94 a play on third down, the highest third-down figure of anyone on either roster with ten or more plays there); Cayden Lee, WR (33 for 496, 15.0, four scores, a long of 47; +0.94 on third down); Shaun Terry II, WR (nine for 96 and a score; +1.83 on third down on a handful of plays); Caleb Goodie Sr., WR (three for 72, 24.0 a catch); Naeshaun Montgomery, WR (seven for 82); Brett Norfleet, TE (eight for 66, a score; +1.34 on passing downs); Jamal Roberts, RB (eight catches for 76; −0.04 a play on third down). The line: Cayden Green, OL, Tristan Wilson, OL, Dominick Giudice, OL, Curtis Peagler, OL, Luke Work, OL, the five that have started every game but the opener. The rush: Daeden Hopkins, EDGE (6.5 sacks, seven for loss, three hurries), Donta Simpson, DT (2.5 sacks, three hurries), Jason Dowell, DT (two sacks), Sterling Webb, DT (a sack, three hurries), Langden Kitchen, EDGE (a sack, three for loss; questionable), Darris Smith, EDGE (two for loss, two hurries; questionable), Jaden Jones, EDGE (four tackles, a fill-in), Nicholas Rodriguez, LB (46 tackles, the team lead, a sack), Kamauryn Morgan, EDGE, and Dante McClellan, LB (half a sack each). In coverage: Chris Graves Jr., CB (six breakups, the team lead), Sione Laulea, CB (five breakups, an interception), Jahlil Florence, CB (four breakups, an interception), Santana Banner, S (42 tackles, three breakups), Trajen Greco, S (an interception), Robert Woodyard Jr., LB (32 tackles, an interception; questionable), Kensley Louidor-Faustin, S (23 tackles, five for loss).
Texas A&M: quarterback Marcel Reed, who has completed 85 of 149 passes for 908 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, was 13 of 19 for 170 against Arkansas; third down is his best down by our numbers and first down his worst. His receivers: Mario Craver, the one he throws to most (23 catches, 235 yards; no ruling for Saturday), Isaiah Horton, the one he finds on third down (three touchdowns, and the only A&M receiver with a long catch on a must-pass down in the games we have, 27 yards on third-and-10 at LSU), running backs Rueben Owens II as the safety valve and KJ Edwards, whose few third-down plays have gone well, Kelshaun Johnson, Aaron Gregory, TK Norman and Ashton Bethel-Roman, and tight ends Houston Thomas and Kiotti Armstrong, who had the 54-yarder. The blockers: Tyree Adams, Trovon Baugh, Mark Nabou Jr., Wilkin Formby and Lamont Rogers, the five who started the last two games, with Blake Ivy and Tyler Thomas sharing time at left guard. The pass rushers: Marco Jones, with two sacks and an interception he returned for a touchdown, T.J. Searcy and Ryan Henderson with a sack each, DJ Hicks and Anto Saka with a half each and three hurries each, and Landon Rink and CJ Mims inside. The pass defenders: Bravion Rogers, with four knocked-down passes, Jordan Shaw with three, Julio Humphrey with two and an interception he returned for a touchdown, safeties Marcus Ratcliffe and Dalton Brooks, an interception each, Tawfiq Byard, Dezz Ricks and Rickey Gibson III, with linebackers Noah Mikhail and Ray Coney underneath. Missouri: quarterback Austin Simmons (1,270 yards, 13 touchdowns, no interceptions), who is at his best on third down; backup Matt Zollers. His receivers: Donovan Olugbode (six touchdowns, a 65-yard catch, and the best third-down numbers of anyone on either team who has played there regularly), Cayden Lee (496 yards, four touchdowns), Shaun Terry II, Caleb Goodie Sr. (24 yards a catch on three), Naeshaun Montgomery, tight end Brett Norfleet, and running back Jamal Roberts out of the backfield. The blockers: Cayden Green, Tristan Wilson, Dominick Giudice, Curtis Peagler and Luke Work, the five who have started every game but the first. The pass rushers: Daeden Hopkins (6.5 sacks), Donta Simpson (2.5), Jason Dowell (two), Sterling Webb, Langden Kitchen (questionable) and Darris Smith (questionable), Jaden Jones, one of the fill-ins, linebacker Nicholas Rodriguez, who leads the team in tackles, and Kamauryn Morgan and Dante McClellan with half a sack each. The pass defenders: Chris Graves Jr., who has knocked down six passes, Sione Laulea and Jahlil Florence, an interception each, safeties Santana Banner, Trajen Greco and Kensley Louidor-Faustin, and linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr., who has an interception and is questionable.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. A&M's passing game sits below its SP+ offense (31.4, 38th of 139, a shade above Missouri's 31.2) on every rung, money-down success the only one close, and the play-by-play says how it earns that rung: with its legs, 17 of 27 third-down runs converted against 8 of 33 throws, and six for six on the ground against Arkansas. Missouri's defense is the first since LSU's built to take that away, a front that stuffs one run in four, forces passing downs more often than all but nine defenses in the country and brings havoc at the tenth-highest rate in FBS, with or without Smith and Kitchen. So the case for A&M on this page is Tuesday's case again: stay out of third and seven or more, where the Aggies are 6 of 27. The other way, the widest rung on either ladder is Simmons on the money downs against a coverage that allows the biggest plays in those spots of all but eight defenses, and the two things the Aggie defense does well, third-down conversions at 26.4% and the rush at the 75th percentile, meet an offense that converts 43.9% on third down and an offense that has allowed five sacks. The structural mismatch the game tests first is the third tell: five pressures on Simmons's first 20 dropbacks and the slight Texas A&M chip on the rush is real; one or none and it comes off. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Missouri on Reed's passing game against the secondary (w6-e1), Missouri in the pocket (w6-e4), Even on the deep game (w6-e5), Missouri on Simmons against the coverage (w6-e6), Texas A&M, slight, on the rush, held to the tell (w6-e9), Missouri on Lee, Olugbode and the deep game against the big-play problem (w6-e10). The call stays Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23.
Our bottom line for today. A&M's passing game is worse than its overall numbers say it should be on every row, and only one comes close, how often its must-pass plays work; the play-by-play says how it earns that row: by running, 17 of 27 third-down runs converted against 8 of 33 throws, and six for six on the ground against Arkansas. Missouri's defense is the first on A&M's schedule since LSU's built to take that away: it stops one run in four for no gain, pushes offenses into long-yardage downs more often than all but nine defenses in the country, and gets into the backfield at one of the ten highest rates anywhere, with or without Smith and Kitchen. So the case for A&M on this page is Tuesday's case again: stay out of third-and-7 or longer, where A&M has converted 6 of 27. Going the other way, the biggest gap on the page is Simmons on the must-pass downs against a pass defense that allows the biggest plays on those downs of all but eight defenses in the country, and the two things A&M's defense does well, holding teams to 26.4% on third down and getting after the quarterback, meet an offense that converts 43.9% of its third downs and an offense that has allowed five sacks all year. The first thing the game will answer is our third early sign: pressure Simmons five times in his first 20 drop-backs and the small A&M edge on the pass rush is real; once or never and it comes off. Monday's picks do not change: a Missouri edge for its pass defense against Reed, a Missouri edge for its pass rush against A&M's blockers, a toss-up on long passes, a Missouri edge for Simmons against A&M's pass defense, a small A&M edge on the pass rush that has to prove itself early, and a Missouri edge for its long-pass game against A&M's big-play problem. The score we picked stays Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23.
Updated Oct 7, before publication on the site, after the Layer 2 fact-check: the plain voice had Missouri's defense "almost never" allowing a big play on the money downs, when it allows more of them than most (the chart had it right); LSU added to two superlatives (its defense forces passing downs, stuffs runs and makes havoc at higher rates than Missouri's); Missouri's havoc allowed is mostly from the back end, not the line; the two Drinkwitz lines on the safeties answered a question about the run game; Cayden Green's clean sheet added. Availability, Wednesday morning: Drinkwitz's Tuesday session and radio show are above (Smith and Kitchen questionable, the bye week "probably more realistic"; Woodyard questionable; Hardy out with no timetable); nothing dated Tuesday changed a status on the A&M side, and Craver has no ruling. The SEC's Wednesday report is the first official word, and Thursday's edition carries it. Every status is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams.Updated Oct 7, after our fact-check and before this page went on the site: this voice said Missouri's defense "almost never" allows a big play on the must-pass downs, when it allows more of them than most (the chart had it right); we added LSU to two sentences that called Missouri's defense the toughest A&M has faced at this; the disruption Missouri's offense allows is mostly in the secondary, not from its blockers; the two Drinkwitz lines on the safeties answered a question about the run game; left tackle Cayden Green's clean season added. Injury news as of Wednesday morning: Drinkwitz's Tuesday comments are above (Smith and Kitchen questionable, with the week off "probably more realistic"; Woodyard questionable; Hardy out with no timetable); nothing dated Tuesday changed anyone's status on the A&M side, and there is still no ruling on Craver. The conference's official Wednesday list is the first real word, and Thursday's edition carries it. Every status is in our injury ledger for the week, both teams. Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week6: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware, through the Week 5 games; season, player and player-value stats for both teams; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file spells a name differently the roster wins), Missouri's five game boxes (data/2026/week6/missouri__game_boxes.json: third downs and sacks by game, both ways), and the play-by-play of A&M's games against Arizona State, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas (data/2026/week2 to week5, postgame files: third downs by distance and by run or throw, passing downs, the 20-yard completions, the sacks, the short-yardage runs; the CFBD definition of a passing down is second and eight or more, or third or fourth and five or more; a sack counts as a throw). No number on this page rests on SP+ beyond the offense ratings named in the verdict, which are as the data service published them before the Week 5 games. Tuesday's words: Missouri On SI, via Yahoo (Oct 6, 2:07 PM CT: Drinkwitz on Smith, Kitchen and Woodyard), Rock M Nation (Oct 6, 3:38 PM CT: the midweek notes; Green's Outland player of the week and the pressures line), Rock M Nation (Oct 6, 8:38 PM CT: the Tiger Talk radio show; the bye-week answer, Jaden Jones, Reed, the 11 AM kick, and Simmons on third down, quoted here around a dash in the original), ABC17 (Oct 6, 3:47 PM CT: Drinkwitz on Reed and the Aggie safeties, Banner on Reed, the questionable statuses), ABC17 (Oct 6, 2:37 PM CT: Hardy), Texas A&M Athletics (Oct 6, 1:30 PM CT: Byard and Rogers), KBTX (Oct 6, 6:53 PM CT: Byard on Simmons, the defensive player of the game), KBTX (Oct 5, 6:26 PM CT: the PFF counts, 11 pressures made and three pressured dropbacks on Reed, the snap counts), Texas A&M Athletics (Oct 5: Elko's Monday Q&A, the depth chart). The sweep ran on search plus fetch from the laptop; Rock M Nation was read by direct fetch, Missouri On SI via Yahoo; the Columbia Daily Tribune, the Kansas City Star, PowerMizzou, TexAgs, GigEm247 and The Eagle were not reached this morning. Everything dated Saturday, Oct 3, or later counts; every status on this page is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams. Definitions in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's first availability report is Wednesday evening; Thursday's edition and Friday's Walkthrough read it.