First and second down, both ways, in full: the run ladder for each offense against the run defense it meets, where the yards come from, how often each side stays on schedule, and the bodies who decide it. The Texas run game the bye week report left an Open question meets a Sooner front that wins every rung of its ladder; the Sooner run game, at or near the bottom of the country on seven of eight rungs, meets a Texas front that wins every rung of the other. Sixteen rungs, sixteen to the defenses, which is what a 40-point total looks like from the ground. Plus Sarkisian's Monday session, the game notes' participation chart, and the Oklahoma line as its coach described it. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them.
Most running happens on first and second down. Today we look at how well each team runs the ball and stops the run, where on the field the yards come from, and what that sets up. Texas's running game, which last week's report called an open question, meets an Oklahoma defensive front that beats it on every row of our chart; and Oklahoma's running game, one of the worst in the country on nearly every row, meets a Texas defensive front that beats it on every row of the other chart. Sixteen rows, and the defenses win all sixteen, which is why the people betting on this game expect so few points. We also have what Sarkisian said Monday, the official list of who has played, and what Oklahoma's coach has said about his blockers. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them.
Read it top to bottom: whether Texas's runs work at all, what each carry is worth, where the yards come from (at the line, at the second level, in open grass), how often a run dies behind the line, whether anything breaks long, and how the early downs go overall. Oklahoma wins all eight rungs, five of them by 30 or more. The first rung is the kindest to Texas and still a loss: the Longhorns' rush success rate sits at the 54th percentile, about average, and Oklahoma allows one at the 95th (29.6%, the seventh-lowest figure in FBS). Everything underneath is the bye week report's regrade restated against a harder opponent. Texas's rushing value is at the 22nd percentile (the report had it 24th on the same four games; the field has played one more), its line yards at the 18th (2.71 a carry; 17th in the report), its open-field yards at the 10th (0.55 a carry, 124th of 138) and its rushing explosiveness at the 11th: by the play-by-play Texas has three runs of 20 or more all season, two of them against Texas State, and nothing longer than 13 at Tennessee. Across the line, Oklahoma allows 2.52 line yards a carry (84th), 0.77 at the second level (84th) and 0.66 in open grass (78th), and on standard downs (first down, and any second or third down short enough that a run is still a real option) allows success on 33.6% of plays, the 99th percentile and the second-lowest figure in the country behind LSU. The one rung where the gap is single digits is the big-run rung, 11 against 19, and it is the one neither side has needed: Oklahoma's four opponents have run for 112, 152, 69 and 129 yards, and Georgia's 129 on 26 is the only line above four a carry. The two rungs Oklahoma does not dominate are stuffs (46th; it kills 18.5% of runs at or behind the line) and the big run (19th), which says the Sooner front wins by holding every carry to little rather than by blowing up many, and Texas's one strong rung all season has been power success, 77.8% (64th), the short-yardage push, which this ladder does not carry. Monday's chips stand: Oklahoma at the line and Oklahoma on the backs, with Hollywood Smothers's return the thing that could narrow the second by Friday, and nothing on this page that narrows it today.
Read it top to bottom: whether Texas's runs work at all, how much each one gains, where the yards come from (at the line, just past it where the linebackers are, and out in open space), how often a runner gets stopped before he gets started, whether anyone breaks a long one, and how first and second down go overall. Oklahoma wins every row, most of them by a lot. The first row is the kindest to Texas and still a loss: Texas's runs work about as often as an average team's, and Oklahoma stops runs more often than almost anyone in the country. Everything underneath is last week's report said again against a harder opponent: each Texas run gains less than most teams', its blockers are in the bottom fifth of the country at opening lanes, and the long run almost never comes. Texas has three runs of 20 yards or more all season, two of them against Texas State, and nothing longer than 13 at Tennessee. Oklahoma's defense is among the best in the country at the line, just past it, and in open space, and on first and second down it stops more plays than every defense in the country but LSU's. The one row where the two teams are close is the long-run row, and neither has needed it: Oklahoma's four opponents ran for 112, 152, 69 and 129 yards, and only Georgia averaged more than four a carry. The two rows Oklahoma does not dominate are stops behind the line and long runs allowed, which tells you its front wins by holding every run to a little rather than by wrecking many. Texas's one real strength on the ground is the short-yardage push, which this chart does not measure. Monday's picks stand: an Oklahoma edge against Texas's blockers and against its running backs, with Hollywood Smothers's return the one thing that could narrow the second by Friday.
The mirror, and the wider one. Texas wins all eight rungs, five of them by 60 or more, and the gap is more Oklahoma's doing than Texas's. The Sooner run game is at the 1st percentile in rushing value (−0.34 a carry; only Bowling Green is lower), the 7th in rush success (34.0%), the 7th in line yards (2.50 a carry, 128th of 138), the 5th at the second level (0.79), the 8th in stuffs (25.0% of its runs die at or behind the line) and the 1st in rushing explosiveness (again only Bowling Green is lower). Its one rung above the 10th percentile is open grass, 1.06 a carry (38th), which is Ben McCreary's 24-yarder and a handful of others: when a Sooner run gets to the third level it keeps going, and it almost never gets there. The line of 396 yards on 135 carries, 2.9 a carry with the sacks counted the way the NCAA counts them, is four games of 170, 100, 61 and 65, and Sooners On SI's count on Oct 1 was that 25 of Oklahoma's 134 non-kneel rushing plays had lost yardage, eight of them sacks. On standard downs the Oklahoma offense succeeds on 40.3% of plays (5th percentile) and produces −0.16 a play (4th). The Texas side of the ladder is good without being the story: rushing value allowed at the 77th, rush success allowed at the 75th, 2.56 line yards allowed (82nd), a 20.8% stuff rate (67th) and standard-down success allowed at 39.7% (86th). Its soft rungs are the second level (41st) and open grass (51st), which is where Tennessee's designed runs went for 143 on 34 by the play-by-play before the ten sacks took the box score down to 70 on 44. The honest counter is the schedule, both ways: Texas's run defense has met run games at the 66th, 46th, 69th and 96th percentiles and allowed 161, 94, 72 and 70; Oklahoma's run game has met run defenses at the 23rd, 86th, 83rd and 99th and produced 170 against the soft one and 100, 61 and 65 against the three good ones. Texas's run defense, at the 77th, belongs with the three. Monday's chips stand, both full size: Texas against Lloyd Avant and the Sooner backs, and Texas at the Sooner line, the second built on the bodies as much as the bars, with Michael Fasusi still out.
The same ladder the other way, and the wider gap. Texas wins all eight rows, most by a mile, and the gap is more about Oklahoma than about Texas. Oklahoma's running game is the second-worst in the country at what each carry gains and at breaking long runs (only Bowling Green is worse at both), among the worst at getting runs to work at all, at pushing the line, at getting past the linebackers, and at avoiding runs that lose yardage. Its one decent row is open space: when a Sooner run gets into the open it keeps going, and it almost never gets there. Oklahoma has run for 396 yards all season, under three a carry, in games of 170, 100, 61 and 65, and by one beat writer's count 25 of its 134 running plays lost yardage. On first and second down, Oklahoma's offense is among the worst in the country. Texas's run defense is good without being the story: well above average at every row but two, the two being just past the line and in open space, which is where Tennessee's running backs did their damage before Texas's ten sacks turned the box score into 70 rushing yards. The honest part is the schedules: Texas has stopped two above-average running teams, one average one and one very good one; Oklahoma has run well against the one weak defense it played and poorly against the three good ones, and Texas's run defense belongs with the three. Monday's picks stand, both full-size Texas edges: against Lloyd Avant and the Oklahoma backs, and against Oklahoma's blockers, who are still missing a starting tackle, Michael Fasusi.
Stay out of the down Texas has not converted. Monday's second key was never to see third-and-long, and the early-down numbers say why that is a plan and not a habit. Texas's standard-down value is +0.00 a play (25th percentile) and its standard-down explosiveness 0.90 (12th), and it has been in passing downs on 32.7% of its snaps (26th percentile at staying out of them). Arch Manning's own plays, passes and runs together, are +0.02 a play on standard downs and +0.40 on passing downs, and first down is his worst down at −0.10, which is the opposite shape from the one Oklahoma's quarterback has. The early-down mix (sacks counted as throws, quarterback runs and fumbled snaps as runs, from the play-by-play of the four games, each rounded to the nearest point) has leaned run: 42% throws against Texas State, 47% against Ohio State, 37% against UTSA and 43% at Tennessee. The backs on standard downs: Smothers +0.27 a play (his rushing value +0.20 a carry), Raleek Brown +0.01 (+0.08 a carry), Derrek Cooper +0.08 (−0.03 a carry); of the three main backs, the one whose early-down carries have gained real value is the one who sat Tennessee (James Simon is +1.18 on four carries). Across the line is the hardest early-down defense on the schedule: Oklahoma allows standard-down success at 33.6% (99th), standard-down value at −0.24 a play (96th) and standard-down explosiveness at 0.82 (96th), and it forces passing downs on 33.3% of opponents' snaps (59th), which is to say it does not need to: it wins the early downs outright and then holds a 23.1% third-down rate behind them. For scale, the first 15 Texas carries of each game went for 91 (Texas State), 53 (Ohio State, a figure that includes a kneel-down and a fake-punt loss), 78 (UTSA) and 48 (Tennessee), rushing plays as the play-by-play types them, sacks excluded; none of this week's three tells counts them, and the second tell, sacks over Manning's first 25 dropbacks, is the one that says whether the early downs went wrong.
Stay out of the down Texas has not converted. Monday's second key was to avoid long third downs, and the first- and second-down numbers say why that is a plan and not something Texas already does. On first and second down Texas gains about an average amount per play, almost never gains a lot on one play, and ends up needing a long third down more often than most teams. Arch Manning's own plays break even on first and second down and gain well on the long-yardage downs, and first down is his worst down, which is the opposite of Oklahoma's quarterback. Texas has run more than it has thrown on those downs in every game: it threw on 42%, 47%, 37% and 43% of its first and second downs in the four games. Of the three main running backs, Hollywood Smothers is the one whose early-down carries have gained real value, and he is the one who sat out Tennessee; Raleek Brown and Derrek Cooper are about even. Across the line is the toughest first-and-second-down defense Texas has faced: Oklahoma stops those plays more often than every defense but one, and it does not need to force long third downs because it wins the early downs outright and then stops three of every four third downs. For comparison, Texas's first 15 running plays went for 91 yards against Texas State, 53 against Ohio State (a figure that includes a kneel-down and a fake punt), 78 against UTSA and 48 at Tennessee; none of this week's three early signs counts them, and the second sign, how often Manning gets sacked early, is the one that says whether the early downs went wrong.
Mateer carries the early downs; the handoffs give it back. John Mateer's own plays, passes and runs together, are +0.25 a play on standard downs and +0.23 on passing downs, +0.08 on first down and +0.42 on second; the team's standard-down value is −0.16 a play (4th percentile), and the difference is the run game: Lloyd Avant is −0.05 a play on standard downs, Xavier Robinson −0.14, Jonathan Hatton Jr. −0.49, Tory Blaylock −0.63 on eight carries, with Ben McCreary's +0.43 on six the exception. Oklahoma's early-down success rate is 40.3% (5th) and it has been in passing downs on 32.4% of its snaps (29th), and its passing-downs value sits at the 17th, so the Sooner offense is bad on the downs it can run and worse on the downs it cannot, which is Monday's third tell in one sentence. Across from it, Texas allows standard-down success at 39.7% (86th) and standard-down value at −0.15 a play (89th), but it puts offenses in passing downs on only 32.6% of their snaps, the 50th percentile, average: the Texas defense wins early downs by holding plays short rather than by getting ahead of the chains, and the ten-sack day at Neyland came with Tennessee converting 4 of 16 third downs, not out of a parade of third-and-longs. Oklahoma's best offensive number is explosive passing (80th), and the one Sooner play that has worked on early downs is Mateer throwing to Isaiah Sategna III and Rocky Beers, which Wednesday's edition covers. Play-action: no public play-action split exists in the data we use, so we do not print one; standard-down passing value, above, is the nearest honest instrument.
Mateer carries the early downs; the handoffs give it back. On first and second down, John Mateer's own plays gain value, and second down is his best down; the team as a whole loses value on those downs, among the worst in the country, and the difference is the running game: every Oklahoma running back but Ben McCreary loses value on first and second down. Oklahoma's first- and second-down plays work only 40% of the time, among the worst in the country, and its plays on the long-yardage downs are nearly as bad, which is Monday's third early sign in one sentence: Oklahoma is bad on the downs where it can run and worse on the downs where it cannot. Texas's defense stops first- and second-down plays more often than most and allows little on them, but it pushes offenses into long third downs only as often as an average defense; it wins the early downs by holding plays short rather than by forcing long yardage, and its ten-sack day at Tennessee came without a parade of long third downs. The one thing Oklahoma's offense does well is the long pass, and the one early-down play that has worked for it is Mateer throwing to Isaiah Sategna III and Rocky Beers, which Wednesday's edition covers. About fake-handoff passes: the numbers we use do not count them separately, so we do not print a number for them.
Smothers and Cam Coleman first. Sarkisian held his game-week session Monday and named nobody. Asked about health: "You're really going to go to the injury thing with me, right? I was in a good mood today, too, man. ... I think naturally, any time you come out of a bye week, if we do it right, we should be healthier than we were going into the bye week. And so, I'll leave it at that. We'll see what it looks like Wednesday night, but I'll start with that. I think we're healthier than we were this time a week ago." (Inside Texas transcript, Oct 5.) Hollywood Smothers · RB · Back at practice, no ruling: he and Townsend returned to practice during the bye week, per an Inside Texas report carried by Burnt Orange Nation on Monday; the game notes' participation chart has him starting the first three games and absent at Tennessee, where he went from questionable to probable to off the SEC's list before kickoff and then, in Burnt Orange Nation's words, "suffered an apparent setback during warmups"; Sarkisian's word on that day, as Burnt Orange Nation carried it Monday: "We felt like he could be an emergency for us. He was obviously not 100 percent." Sept 28's "I think he'll be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU" is still the last word with his name in it. Cam Coleman · WR · Probable, no update: four starts in four, not mentioned Monday; Sept 28's "nothing serious" stands. Nick Townsend · TE · Back at practice, no ruling, the same Inside Texas report; he started Texas State, played Ohio State and has not played since. Justus Terry · DL · Out, no update: one game played, the opener; Burnt Orange Nation's Monday read is that his status is "the most important update to watch for on Wednesday's injury report." Jordan Coleman · OL · Out, no update: played the first three games as a reserve, sat Tennessee. Xavier Filsaime · DB · Out, no update, no games played. Cole Hutson · OL · Eligibility pending, no update, no games played. What the chart settles: the Texas line has been the same five in all four games, Trevor Goosby · OL · Available at left tackle, Dylan Sikorski · OL · Available at left guard, Connor Robertson · OL · Available at center, Brandon Baker · OL · Available at right guard and Melvin Siani · OL · Available at right tackle, so Monday's Open question on the line is about these five and not about who they are. Colin Simmons · EDGE · Available, four games played, and Derrek Cooper · RB · Available, three of four, Ohio State the one he missed. The SEC's first report is Wednesday at 7:10 PM CT; Thursday's edition carries it.
Smothers and Cam Coleman first. Sarkisian held his Monday press conference and did not name a single injured player. Asked about his team's health, he said, "You're really going to go to the injury thing with me, right? I was in a good mood today, too, man," and then, "I think we're healthier than we were this time a week ago," adding that the official list comes out Wednesday night. Hollywood Smothers · RB · Back at practice, no ruling: he and tight end Nick Townsend returned to practice during the week off, according to a report from Inside Texas that Burnt Orange Nation carried Monday; the team's official participation chart shows he started the first three games and did not play at Tennessee, where he had been cleared before kickoff and then had what Burnt Orange Nation called "an apparent setback during warmups"; in his coach's words, he "was obviously not 100 percent." The last thing Sarkisian said with Smothers's name in it was Sept 28: "I think he'll be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU." Cam Coleman · WR · Probable, no update: he has started every game, was not mentioned Monday, and "nothing serious" from Sept 28 still stands. Nick Townsend · TE · Back at practice, no ruling, same report; he has not played since the Ohio State game. Justus Terry · DL · Out, no update: he has played only the opener, and Burnt Orange Nation says his status is the biggest thing to watch for on Wednesday's list. Jordan Coleman · OL · Out, no update: a backup who played the first three games and missed Tennessee. Xavier Filsaime · DB · Out, no update, no games played. Cole Hutson · OL · Eligibility pending, no update, no games played. One thing the chart settles: Texas has used the same five blockers in every game, Trevor Goosby · OL · Available, Dylan Sikorski · OL · Available, Connor Robertson · OL · Available, Brandon Baker · OL · Available and Melvin Siani · OL · Available, so the question about Texas's blocking is about how these five play, not who they are. Colin Simmons · EDGE · Available, who has played every game, and Derrek Cooper · RB · Available, who has played three of four, missing only the Ohio State game. The conference's first official injury list comes out Wednesday at 7:10 PM; Thursday's edition carries it.
Oklahoma. Brent Venables's weekly session is Tuesday, so there is no Monday word from him; Wednesday's edition carries it. Players spoke Monday: John Mateer · QB · Available, the starter, to Sooners On SI, "I'm more excited. It's the game. It's what everybody says it is, and I've always wanted to play in it," and on the criticism, "The fact that I haven't performed is disappointing, but I'm blessed to play ball today and get better." Michael Fasusi · OL · Out, no update: 17 plays all season, none since he left the opener; Venables on Sept 30, per Sooners On SI (Oct 1), was not sure whether the line's communication would go through another transition when Fasusi returns: "Obviously you get a new guy coming back into it, but he's done it and done it for a whole season." The line as Sooners On SI charted it that day: three different starting pairings in four games, seven linemen used at Georgia, Eddy Pierre-Louis · OL · Available playing 64 of 72 snaps after replacing Noah Best · OL · Available early, Heath Ozaeta · OL · Available rotating with Best at right guard, Peyton Joseph · OL · Available 14 snaps off the bench and, per Venables, due "more opportunity" (Sooners On SI, Oct 3), Jake Maikkula · OL · Available at center. Owen Heinecke · LB · Questionable, no update: the team's leading tackler left Georgia with what Venables called a hamstring strain (247Sports), and nothing dated this week changes it. Jacobe Johnson · DB · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown and Mackenzie Alleyne · WR · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown, no update. Trell Harris · WR · Out, no update, Cole Sullivan · LB · Out, no update, Taylor Heim · LB · Out, no update, Michael Boganowski · DB · Out, no update and Jer'Michael Carter · WR · Out, no update, all from the SEC's Sept 26 90-minute report, nothing dated since. David Stone · DL · Available, and in his own words after Monday's practice (Sooners On SI, published Oct 6, 6:00 AM CT, after this page's build slot opened): "I feel good, man. The bye week did justice for me, so I'm ready," and "literally two weeks ago I didn't know if I was going to play this sport again." Kip Lewis · LB · Available, played at Georgia. The backs: Lloyd Avant · RB · Available, the lead back; Tory Blaylock · RB · Available, eight carries this season after a hamstring injury in the first week of fall camp cost him the opener (Sooners On SI, Oct 4: "Blaylock is now healthy"; Oct 5: "another week should have" him "firing closer to 100%"); Xavier Robinson · RB · Available, four games played, and Jonathan Hatton Jr. · RB · Available, three, per Oklahoma's official cumulative stats.
Oklahoma. Oklahoma's coach, Brent Venables, holds his weekly press conference on Tuesdays, so there is nothing from him yet; Wednesday's edition will have it. Players spoke Monday: John Mateer · QB · Available, the starter, told Sooners On SI, "I'm more excited. It's the game. It's what everybody says it is, and I've always wanted to play in it," and about the criticism of his play, "The fact that I haven't performed is disappointing, but I'm blessed to play ball today and get better." Michael Fasusi · OL · Out, no update: the starting left tackle has played 17 snaps all season, none since the opener, and Venables said last week he was not sure whether the blockers would need to adjust again when he returns. The blockers as the Oklahoma beat charted them last week: three different starting groups in four games, seven linemen used at Georgia, Eddy Pierre-Louis · OL · Available playing most of that game after replacing Noah Best · OL · Available early, Heath Ozaeta · OL · Available sharing right guard with Best, Peyton Joseph · OL · Available getting 14 snaps and, per Venables, due more, and Jake Maikkula · OL · Available at center. Owen Heinecke · LB · Questionable, no update: Oklahoma's leading tackler left the Georgia game with what Venables called a hamstring strain, and there is no new word. Jacobe Johnson · DB · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown and Mackenzie Alleyne · WR · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown, no update. Trell Harris · WR · Out, no update, Cole Sullivan · LB · Out, no update, Taylor Heim · LB · Out, no update, Michael Boganowski · DB · Out, no update and Jer'Michael Carter · WR · Out, no update, all ruled out before the Georgia game with nothing new since. David Stone · DL · Available, and in his own words after Monday's practice: "I feel good, man. The bye week did justice for me, so I'm ready," and "literally two weeks ago I didn't know if I was going to play this sport again." Kip Lewis · LB · Available, played at Georgia. The running backs: Lloyd Avant · RB · Available, the main one; Tory Blaylock · RB · Available, who has carried only eight times after a hamstring injury in training camp kept him out of the opener, and whom the Oklahoma beat calls healthy now and expects to be closer to full strength after the week off; Xavier Robinson · RB · Available, who has played every game, and Jonathan Hatton Jr. · RB · Available, who has played three of four.
What it changes. No chip, no tell and not the call. Two things get sharper. Monday's availability block said neither coach had held his game-week session; Sarkisian has now, without a name, and the beat has Smothers and Townsend practicing, so the block carries a dated pointer to this page. And the Texas line is the same five that produced the 18th-percentile line yards, on the participation chart and in the absence of any change, so the Open question Monday put on it has no new bodies to answer it: it will be answered by these five against Adepoju Adebawore, David Stone, Jayden Jackson and Taylor Wein, or it will not. Terry's status is the question Wednesday's report answers first on the Texas side; Heinecke's on the Oklahoma side.
What it changes. None of Monday's picks, and not the score. Two things get sharper. Monday's page said neither coach had held his weekly press conference yet; Sarkisian has now, without naming anyone, and the beat reports Smothers and Townsend are practicing, so Monday's page now points here. And Texas's blockers are the same five who have struggled all season, so the open question Monday put on them will be answered by how those five play against Oklahoma's front, not by anyone new. Whether Justus Terry plays is the first thing Wednesday's list answers on the Texas side; whether Owen Heinecke plays is the first thing on Oklahoma's.
Texas: Raleek Brown, RB (48 carries for 196, 4.1 a carry, four touchdowns, long 21; 17 for 67 and two touchdowns at Tennessee as the starter with Smothers out), the volume back; Hollywood Smothers, RB (41 for 198, 4.8, two touchdowns, the team's long run of 45; listed as Daylan Smothers in the stats file), the one back with a real workload whose standard-down plays gain real value; Derrek Cooper, RB (20 for 57, 2.9, a touchdown; 7 for 7 at Tennessee); Michael Terry III, RB (10 for 47; the game notes list him at receiver), and James Simon, RB (4 for 19 and a touchdown). Arch Manning, QB, is 31 for 79 in the official count, which charges the ten sacks to him; by our count of the play-by-play his designed runs are about 20 for 141 with a long of 20. The tight ends who block on early downs: Emaree Winston, TE (started the last two games; six catches for 70), Spencer Shannon, TE (two starts), with Nick Townsend, TE, out since Ohio State. The line, the same five in all four games per the game notes: Trevor Goosby, OL, Dylan Sikorski, OL, Connor Robertson, OL, Brandon Baker, OL, and Melvin Siani, OL, with Jaydon Chatman, OL, Jackson Christian, OL, and Andre Cojoe, OL, in every game behind them and Jordan Coleman, OL, out. The run fits: Rasheem Biles, LB (30 tackles, the team lead, 2.5 for loss, a sack), Jelani McDonald, DB (26), Justin Cryer, LB (23, three hurries), Kade Phillips, DB (19), Hero Kanu, DL (10 tackles, 3.5 for loss, three hurries), Maraad Watson, DL (two sacks), Colin Simmons, EDGE (8.5 for loss, seven sacks), Zina Umeozulu, EDGE (two for loss), Lance Jackson, EDGE (three starts, a sack), and the interior rotation of Alex January, DL, and Ian Geffrard, DL, both in every game. Oklahoma: Lloyd Avant, RB (42 for 164, 3.9, a touchdown, long 13), the lead back; Xavier Robinson, RB (13 for 50, 3.8); Jonathan Hatton Jr., RB (14 for 43, long 21); Tory Blaylock, RB (8 for 15); Ben McCreary, RB (6 for 40, the team's long run of 24). John Mateer, QB, is 41 for 76 with the eight sacks counted against him, long 22, and his legs were a weapon a year ago; Sooners On SI's Monday case for Oklahoma was that they need to be one again. Rocky Beers, TE (18 catches for 255), and Hayden Hansen, TE, the tight ends who block. The line: Jake Maikkula, OL, at center, the one Sooner starter Sooners On SI reports with a PFF grade above 60; Eddy Pierre-Louis, OL; Noah Best, OL; Heath Ozaeta, OL; Ryan Fodje, OL; Peyton Joseph, OL; Michael Fasusi, OL, out. The front: Adepoju Adebawore, DL (2.5 sacks), David Stone, DL (15 tackles, 2.5 for loss), Jayden Jackson, DL (15, 1.5 for loss), Taylor Wein, DL (14, three for loss), Wyatt Gilmore, DL (1.5 for loss), Bishop Thomas, DL; Owen Heinecke, LB (28 tackles, the team lead, three for loss, two sacks; questionable), Kip Lewis, LB (eight tackles in his three games), James Nesta, LB (16); and the defensive backs who live in the run fit, Reggie Powers III, DB (17 tackles, four for loss, two sacks, the most tackles for loss on the team), Peyton Bowen, DB (17 tackles, 2.5 for loss) and Omarion Robinson, DB (17), which on a front this good says the secondary is in the fit by design.
Texas: the running backs are Raleek Brown, who carries it most (196 yards on 48 carries, about 4.1 a carry, four touchdowns, and the starter at Tennessee with Smothers out), Hollywood Smothers, who has gained the most per carry (4.8) of the backs who carry it regularly and has the team's longest run (45 yards), Derrek Cooper (57 yards), Michael Terry III and James Simon. Quarterback Arch Manning runs too, about 20 times for 141 yards by our count once sacks are taken out. Tight ends Emaree Winston and Spencer Shannon help block; Nick Townsend has been out since the Ohio State game. The blockers have been the same five in every game: Trevor Goosby, Dylan Sikorski, Connor Robertson, Brandon Baker and Melvin Siani, with Jaydon Chatman, Jackson Christian and Andre Cojoe behind them and Jordan Coleman out. The defenders who stop the run: linebackers Rasheem Biles (a team-high 30 tackles) and Justin Cryer, safeties Jelani McDonald and Kade Phillips, the big men in the middle Hero Kanu, Maraad Watson, Alex January and Ian Geffrard, and the edge rushers Colin Simmons (seven sacks), Zina Umeozulu and Lance Jackson. Oklahoma: running back Lloyd Avant (164 yards, 3.9 a carry, nothing longer than 13), Xavier Robinson, Jonathan Hatton Jr., Tory Blaylock and Ben McCreary, who has the team's longest run, 24 yards. Quarterback John Mateer is credited with 76 rushing yards, a number that has his eight sacks subtracted from it the way college football counts them, and his running was a weapon last year; the Oklahoma beat thinks it needs to be again. Tight ends Rocky Beers and Hayden Hansen block. The blockers: center Jake Maikkula, the one starter the beat grades as solid, Eddy Pierre-Louis, Noah Best, Heath Ozaeta, Ryan Fodje and Peyton Joseph, with the starting left tackle, Michael Fasusi, out. The defensive front: linemen Adepoju Adebawore (2.5 sacks), David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Taylor Wein, Wyatt Gilmore and Bishop Thomas; linebackers Owen Heinecke (a team-high 28 tackles, questionable), Kip Lewis and James Nesta; and the defensive backs who come up to stop the run, Reggie Powers III (the most tackles behind the line on the team), Peyton Bowen and Omarion Robinson, which for a front this good means the secondary is part of the plan against the run, not the last resort.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. Texas's run game is the unit the bye week report said it was, an ordinary one that grinds (rush success 54th, power success 64th) and does not break (explosiveness 11th, open field 10th), and it meets the best run defense on its schedule by rushing value allowed: Oklahoma's 80th against Texas State's 68th, Ohio State's 62nd, Tennessee's 49th and UTSA's 48th. A grind against a front that allows 2.52 line yards and 33.6% success on standard downs is a short-field offense's plan, which is what Monday's 40-point total already said. Oklahoma's run game is at the bottom of the second ladder on the season's numbers and in no single man is it otherwise: Avant is 41% of the rushing yards at 3.9 a carry with a long of 13, and the asterisk this ladder would need, a Jamal Roberts, does not exist on the Sooner roster this year. The number on this page we trust least is the Texas run defense's second level and open grass (41st and 51st), where Tennessee's designed runs went 34 for 143 before the sacks; the Oklahoma run game has not reached either level often enough to test it. Nothing on this page is on a tell this week; the second tell, sacks over Manning's first 25 dropbacks, is the early-down tell by proxy, because the sack is where a lost first down goes. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Oklahoma at the line (w6-e2), Oklahoma on the backs against the Sooner run defense (w6-e3), Texas against Avant and the Sooner backs (w6-e7), Texas at the Sooner line (w6-e8). The call stays Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.
Our bottom line for today. Texas's running game is what last week's report said it was: an ordinary unit that gains a few yards at a time and almost never breaks a long run, and it faces the best run defense it has seen this year. Grinding out short gains against a front that stops first- and second-down plays better than every defense but one is a plan for a low-scoring game, which is what Monday's score already said. Oklahoma's running game is at the bottom of the country, and unlike some poor running teams it has no one player who makes the numbers lie: Lloyd Avant has 41% of the yards at under four a carry with nothing longer than 13. The number on this page we trust least is how Texas's run defense does once a runner gets past the line, where Tennessee's backs did their damage; Oklahoma's runners have not gotten there often enough to test it. None of this week's three early signs is about the running game; the second sign, how often Manning is sacked early, is the closest thing, because a sack is where a wasted first down ends up. Monday's picks do not change: an Oklahoma edge against Texas's blockers and against its running backs, and a Texas edge against Avant and the Oklahoma backs and against Oklahoma's blockers. The score we picked stays Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.
Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week6: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware, through the Week 5 games, with Texas and Oklahoma on four games apiece; season, player and player-value stats for both teams; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file or the game notes spell a name or a position differently the roster wins), Oklahoma's four game boxes (data/2026/week6/oklahoma__game_boxes.json, one call to our data service this morning, for the rushing lines both ways by game), and the play-by-play and box scores of Texas's four games (data/2026/week1 to week4, postgame files: the early-down mix, the first 15 carries, the designed-run lines both ways, the runs of 20 or more). No number on this page rests on SP+, which our data service had not updated past the Week 4 games at the Monday build. Sarkisian's Monday session: Inside Texas, via On3 (Oct 5, 2:58 PM CT, the transcript), Burnt Orange Nation (Oct 5, 12:30 PM CT: the health answer, the Inside Texas report that Smothers and Townsend returned to practice, Terry as the one to watch, Sarkisian's postgame "not 100 percent" on Smothers), Hook'em Headlines (Oct 6, 5:00 AM CT: the 7:10 PM Wednesday report time), the Texas game notes for Oklahoma (posted Oct 5: the game-by-game starters and the participation chart, "as of Oct 01"). Oklahoma: Sooners On SI (Oct 5, 8:31 PM CT: Mateer's Monday quotes), Sooners On SI (Oct 5, 9:00 AM CT: the Monday preview on the run game, Blaylock, Mateer's legs), Sooners On SI (Oct 6, 6:00 AM CT: Stone after Monday's practice; added after the Layer 2 omission check), Sooners On SI (Oct 4: Blaylock's camp hamstring, "now healthy"), Sooners On SI (Oct 1: Venables on the line, three pairings, seven linemen at Georgia, Pierre-Louis, Best, Ozaeta, Joseph, Fasusi's 17 plays, the 25 of 134 count), Sooners On SI (Oct 3: Joseph, Maikkula's grade, Fodje), Sooners On SI (Oct 1: Venables deferring to the SEC's report; Heinecke, Johnson and Alleyne), 247Sports (late September, paywalled past the preview: Venables describing Heinecke's injury as a hamstring strain). Venables's weekly session is Tuesday and had not happened at build time; Wednesday's edition carries it. The sweep ran on search plus fetch from the laptop; Inside Texas's own forum, Orangebloods' boards, 247Sports past its preview and the Oklahoma boards were not read. Everything dated Saturday, Sept 26, or later counts, the last game day for both teams; every status on this page is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams. Definitions in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's first availability report is Wednesday evening; Thursday's edition carries it. Checked before publication by a separate fact-check pass (Oct 6, about 6:30 AM CT): no material finding; six non-material fixes applied before this page went out (Cooper's and Hatton's games played, Mateer's rushing total in the plain voice, a reporter's paraphrase that had been printed as Venables's words, Brown's and Cooper's Tennessee lines moved to the official box, the plain-voice labels on Texas's four opposing run games), plus Stone's Monday words and Blaylock's camp injury added from the omission check.