The Saturday DispatchTexas · Week 6 · The Scouting Report
Texas · Week 6 · The Scouting Report Install week of Oct 5–10 · published Monday

The Scouting Report: Two Defenses in Dallas, and Only One of Them Has an Offense to Lean On

Texas comes off its bye 4-0, No. 1 in both polls, and a 9-point favorite in the Cotton Bowl over a 2-2 Oklahoma that has lost at Michigan and at Georgia, has turned the ball over ten times in four games, and spent its own bye week with its coach saying out loud that John Mateer is still the starter. Our board is a mirror: when Texas has the ball, four of the five chips are Oklahoma's and the fifth is Even, because the Sooner defense allows value at the 98th percentile and the Texas offense is the open question the bye week report left it; when Oklahoma has the ball, every chip but one is Texas's, because the Sooner run game sits at the 1st percentile and Mateer has been the least careful quarterback on the schedule. The game is about which offense can function at all. The bye report's three October tells carry into this page, one of them narrowed to Oklahoma, and its regraded chips are where every pairing below starts.

Everything we think about this game. Texas comes off its week off at 4-0, ranked No. 1 in both polls, and is expected to beat Oklahoma by about 9 points in Dallas. Oklahoma is 2-2, lost at Michigan and at Georgia, has given the ball away ten times in four games, and spent its own week off with its coach saying publicly that John Mateer is still the quarterback. Our matchup board is a mirror image: when Texas has the ball, four of the five matchups go to Oklahoma and the fifth is a toss-up, because Oklahoma's defense has been one of the two or three best in the country and the Texas offense is still the open question we called it last week; when Oklahoma has the ball, every matchup but one goes to Texas, because Oklahoma's running game has been about the worst in the country and Mateer has turned the ball over more than any quarterback Texas has faced. The game comes down to which offense can function at all. The three early signs we wrote down in last week's bye report carry into this page, one of them narrowed to Oklahoma, and last week's regraded unit ratings are where every matchup below starts.

Sat, Oct 10 · 2:30 PM CT · ABC Cotton Bowl, Dallas · neutral site, the State Fair of Texas Line on Monday: Texas −9.5 at DraftKings (opened −6) and −9 at Bovada (opened −8), a consensus of 9.25 · over/under 41.5 at DraftKings (opened 48.5) and 39 at Bovada (opened 40) Series: Texas leads 62-51-5 in our data service's count (the schools count it 65-51-5) · last meeting Texas 23, Oklahoma 6 (Oct 11, 2025, Cotton Bowl) · Texas has won two straight and three of the last four
The Call · made Mon, Oct 5, and left alonegraded Sunday
Texas 24
the call
Oklahoma 15
their side
Texas −9.5
the betting line, Monday
Texas by 9.6
our computer model

Why this number: The 24–15 call rides the market. DraftKings opened Texas at −6 and sits at −9.5; Bovada opened −8 and sits at −9, so the money has gone to Texas at both books and the consensus is 9.25, which we round to 9. The totals went the other way, DraftKings from 48.5 down to 41.5 and Bovada from 40 to 39, a consensus of about 40, so 9 points of margin on 40 points of scoring splits to 24.5 and 15.5, and we round down on both. The moneylines work out to about a 76% chance Texas wins at DraftKings and 73% at Bovada, roughly 75% between them, with the books' margin taken out. Our computer model, built on SP+ ratings with no home-field term because the Cotton Bowl is a neutral site, says Texas 22.7–13.1, Texas by 9.6, four-tenths of a point more Texas than the line on a lower total; its ratings have Texas at +22.4 (7th) and Oklahoma at +12.8 (27th), and because neither team played Saturday those are the same numbers the service had before the Week 5 games. We print the model so it can be graded, not so anyone should bet it; on margin the market leads it 5 to 4 this season, and on the winner the two have split once, Ohio State at Texas, the market's. The history: since 2023, favorites of 8.5 to 10 points in the first five weeks are 71-19 straight up, and the median margin across all 90 of those games sits at 9.5. On neutral fields the sample is smaller and kinder to the favorite: favorites between 7 and 12 points in those same weeks are 34-10, median margin 9.5. What makes this number wrong in Texas's favor: Oklahoma's offense produces value at the 4th percentile, its run game at the 1st, Mateer has four interceptions and two lost fumbles, and the Texas front has 15 sacks against a line that has allowed 8 with a starting tackle, Michael Fasusi, out since the opener. What makes it wrong in Oklahoma's favor: the Sooner defense allows value at the 98th percentile and a 23% third-down rate, Texas has not converted a third-and-long all season, and the Texas offense has lost value per play every game since the opener. Updated Oct 7: by our count of the play-by-play, Texas is 6 of 26 on third down at seven or more yards to go this season (2 of 13 at ten or more, both in the opener) and 1 of 9 at Tennessee; Burnt Orange Nation's 0 for 9 uses a split of short, medium and long we cannot reproduce from the play-by-play, so this page no longer prints it as a fact of its own. Caught by Wednesday's build. The call does not move.

Why we picked this score: The people betting on this game have Texas as a 9-point favorite, and the number has moved toward Texas all week at both books we follow (one opened at Texas by 6, the other at 8), so we wrote down a 9-point win, Texas 24, Oklahoma 15. Those same people expect a low-scoring game, about 40 points between the two teams, which is why both scores are modest. The betting odds give Texas about a 76% chance to win at one book and 73% at the other, roughly 75% between them, once the books' built-in margin is taken out. Our own computer says Texas by about 10, Texas 23, Oklahoma 13, almost exactly the betting line; it rates Texas as about the 7th-best team in the country and Oklahoma about 27th, with nothing added for a home field because the game is at a neutral site. Neither team played last Saturday, so those ratings are the same ones the service had a week ago. We print the computer's number so you can see it, but the betting line has been the better guide this season, so the line is what we follow. The history: since 2023, teams favored by about 9 points in the first five weeks of a season have won 71 games and lost 19, and the typical final margin is about 10 points. At neutral sites the history is a little kinder to the favorite: favorites of 7 to 12 points have won 34 and lost 10. How this goes better for Texas: Oklahoma's offense has been one of the worst in the country, its running game second to last, Mateer has thrown four interceptions and lost two fumbles, and Texas's pass rush has 15 sacks against blockers who have been missing a starting tackle, Michael Fasusi, since the opener. How it goes better for Oklahoma: its defense has been one of the two or three best in the country and lets opponents convert fewer than one in four third downs, Texas has not converted a single long third down all year, and the Texas offense has gotten a little worse every game since the opener. Updated Oct 7: by our own count of every play, Texas has converted 6 of 26 third downs needing seven yards or more this season (2 of 13 needing ten or more, both in the opener) and 1 of 9 at Tennessee; Burnt Orange Nation's "none of nine" uses a definition of long we cannot reproduce, so this page no longer prints it as a fact of its own. Caught by Wednesday's build. The score does not change.

The Walkthrough Revision, Friday, kickoff minus 24 hours: not yet run. It fires Friday, Oct 9, at 2:33 PM CT, one day before kickoff, and reads the SEC's Wednesday and Thursday availability reports, the Friday lines from the data leg's morning pull, and the beat. The call is changed for a stated reason or affirmed, here, in this box. Updated Oct 13: the Walkthrough did not run. The laptop that holds the schedule died Friday afternoon, after the A&M Walkthrough, and the Friday slot, the Saturday card and the Sunday recap all went with it; the call was never revisited after Monday. The SEC's Thursday and Friday reports, read after the fact, and the game itself are in the recap, built Tuesday, Oct 13: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24, the call WRONG.

Our Friday check, a day before kickoff: we have not done it yet. It happens Friday, Oct 9, at 2:33 in the afternoon, one day before kickoff. We will read the conference's official injury lists from Wednesday and Thursday, the Friday betting line, and what the beat writers are reporting, and then we will either change our score for a reason we state or keep it. The answer goes right here. Updated Oct 13: our Friday check never happened. The laptop that runs our schedule died Friday afternoon, and the Friday check, the Saturday update and the Sunday recap all went with it, so we never looked at our score again after Monday. The injury lists we missed and the game itself are in the recap, built Tuesday, Oct 13: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24, and our score was WRONG.

Three Tells, Measured Early

  1. Completions of 20 or more yards over Manning's first 25 throws. Carried from the bye week report as written, because the matchup it was written for is this one: Texas has nine such completions in four games, never more than four in a game and one each against Ohio State and UTSA, and Oklahoma's coverage allows explosive passes at the 96th percentile, tied for the best number on this board. Two or more in the first 25 says the Receivers chip is climbing back off the 17th percentile and the Even on the deep game below was too cautious; none again says the fall is the offense, not the schedule, and it would say it against a coverage better than the one the bye report wrote it against (Texas got three such completions at Tennessee, against a coverage at the 99th).The first sign is how many of Arch Manning's first 25 passes go for 20 yards or more. We wrote this one down in last week's bye report and we keep it as written, because this is the game it was written for: Texas has nine such completions all season, never more than four in a game, and only one in each of the Ohio State and UTSA games, and Oklahoma's pass defense has given up fewer long passes than almost anyone in the country. Two or more in the first 25 says the receivers are getting their big plays back; none says the problem is the offense and not the opponents, and it would say so against a pass defense even better than the one the report wrote it against (Texas had three such completions at Tennessee, against a better one).
  2. Sacks allowed over Manning's first 25 dropbacks. Carried from the bye week report as written. Texas has allowed ten, six at Neyland; Oklahoma has 13 sacks (Adepoju Adebawore 2.5, Owen Heinecke 2, Reggie Powers III 2) and front-seven havoc at the 91st percentile against a Texas protection that allows havoc at the 15th. Two or fewer says Knoxville was the Volunteer front and the Open question on the line is a run-blocking problem only; four says protection is the October problem and the board's widest gap on the Texas side, 76 points, is the game.The second sign is how many times Manning is tackled behind the line on his first 25 passing plays. Also carried from last week's report as written. Texas has given up ten sacks this season, six of them at Tennessee; Oklahoma has 13 sacks, led by Adepoju Adebawore, Owen Heinecke and Reggie Powers III, and its defense gets into the backfield more than most teams while Texas's blockers have let defenders through more than most. Two or fewer says Tennessee's pass rush was the exception; four says pass blocking is October's problem and the biggest mismatch on the Texas side of our board decides the game.
  3. Oklahoma's first 12 third downs. The Oklahoma half of the bye week report's third tell, which counted Oklahoma's and Florida's first 12 apiece; Florida's 12 wait for next week. Texas allows 34.5% (19 of 55); Oklahoma converts 34.0% (18 of 53) and its passing-downs value sits at the 17th percentile, which is the number that says third down is where Mateer's day goes wrong, with the Texas rush at the 89th percentile in havoc waiting there. Four or fewer of 12 says the Lean strength on the secondary and the Strength on the front are the defense and not the schedule; six or more says the regrade was a chip too far and the second half is longer than a 9-point line expects.The third sign is how many of Oklahoma's first 12 third downs it converts. This is half of last week's third sign, which counted Oklahoma's and Florida's first 12 each; Florida's wait for next week. Texas's defense has allowed about one in three third downs this season; Oklahoma converts about one in three, and its passing game on the downs where it has to throw has been in the bottom fifth of the country, which is where Texas's pass rush does its work. Four or fewer of 12 says the defense is as good as its numbers; six or more says we moved the secondary up too fast and the second half will be closer than a 9-point line expects.
The words we use
The words we use
The call is the final score we are predicting. We write it down at the start of the week and leave it alone, the way you would write your guess on a napkin before kickoff and not touch it after.
The market is the betting line, which is the number of points the people wagering real money expect the favorite to win by. Those people have been better at this than our computer so far, so our call leans on their number.
The model is our computer's own guess at the score, built from the season's numbers. We print it next to the betting line so you can see when the two agree and when they do not.
Tells are three early signs to watch in the first stretch of the game. If they show up, the game is going the way we said; if they do not, we were probably wrong, and you will know it before we do.
Edges are our answer, one matchup at a time, to the question of which team has the better side of it.
Graded means that on Sunday we go back over everything we said and mark each piece right, partly right, or wrong.

The Bottom Line

Texas should win by about nine, and the shape of it is two defenses: the one that allows value at the 83rd percentile is playing an offense at the 4th, and the one that allows it at the 98th is playing an offense at the 28th. Oklahoma's problem is the ball. Mateer is 72 of 109 for 883, 8.1 an attempt, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, with two lost fumbles of his own among the Sooners' six, and the three first-half turnovers at Georgia, two of them Chris Cole's fumble recoveries, one an 85-yard return, put that game at 28–0 before Oklahoma had scored; Venables called it "the number one priority" and said "we failed miserably in doing that." Behind Mateer the run game is Lloyd Avant, 42 for 164 and a 3.9 average with a long of 13, on a rushing-value number at the 1st percentile and a line that creates 2.50 yards a carry (7th) without Michael Fasusi, a starting tackle out since the opener. Texas's problem is its own offense: value per play down every week since Texas State, nine completions of 20-plus all season, ten sacks allowed, 0 for 9 on third-and-long by Burnt Orange Nation's count (see the Oct 7 note in the call box; our count is 6 of 26 at seven or more), and now the best defense it has faced, a Sooner unit that allows success at the 97th percentile, explosive passes at the 96th and a 23.1% third-down rate, with 13 sacks. Texas's answer is the one it had at Neyland: the front. Colin Simmons has seven sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss, the front-seven havoc rate is at the 89th percentile, and Oklahoma's protection allows havoc at the 30th. Hollywood Smothers (41 for 198, 4.8) is expected back after sitting Tennessee; Sarkisian's Sept 28 word was "I think he'll be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU," and the SEC's Wednesday report is the first official word. Texas is No. 1 with 61 of 70 first-place votes; Oklahoma is unranked and 0-1 in the conference.

We think Texas wins by about nine, and the shape of it is two very good defenses, one of which is playing a bad offense. Oklahoma's problem is the football itself. John Mateer has completed 66% of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions, has lost two fumbles himself, and his three first-half giveaways at Georgia, one of them returned 85 yards for a touchdown, had that game 28 to 0 before Oklahoma scored; his coach called holding onto the ball "the number one priority" and said "we failed miserably in doing that." Oklahoma's running game is Lloyd Avant, 164 yards on 42 carries with nothing longer than 13, behind blockers who have been among the worst in the country at opening lanes and have been without a starting tackle, Michael Fasusi, since the opener. Texas's problem is its own offense: it has done a little less with each game since the opener, has only nine completions of 20 yards or more all season, has given up ten sacks, has not converted a single long third down by Burnt Orange Nation's count (see the Oct 7 note in the box above; by our count it is 6 of 26 needing seven or more), and now faces the best defense it has seen, one that stops plays, prevents long passes and gets off the field on third down about as well as anyone in the country, with 13 sacks. Texas's answer is the same one it had at Tennessee: its defensive front. Colin Simmons has seven sacks, the front wrecks plays more often than most, and Oklahoma's blockers let defenders through more than most. Running back Hollywood Smothers, who sat out Tennessee, is expected back; his coach said on Sept 28, "I think he'll be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU," and the conference's Wednesday injury list is the first official word. Texas is ranked No. 1 with 61 of 70 first-place votes; Oklahoma is unranked and has lost its only conference game.

Common opponents: none yet this season (both play Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri later). Pace: Texas has run 286 pass attempts and rushes through four games, Oklahoma 247; Texas has held the ball 31:38 a game, Oklahoma 29:39. Ratings in the table and the model are SP+ as published before the Week 5 games; neither team played in Week 5, so their own ratings would not have moved.

What success looks like for Texas

  1. Make Mateer hold it. Oklahoma's protection allows havoc at the 30th percentile, has given up eight sacks, and has played the last three games without Fasusi, a starting tackle; the Texas front has 15 sacks (Simmons 7, Maraad Watson 2) and 18 hurries. Mateer's passing-downs value is at the 17th percentile: when the down and distance make him throw, he has been bad, and the third tell counts those downs.Make Mateer hold the ball. Oklahoma's blockers let defenders into the backfield more than most, have given up eight sacks, and have been missing a starting tackle for three games; Texas's defensive front has 15 sacks, seven of them by Colin Simmons. On the downs where Oklahoma has to throw, Mateer has been among the worst quarterbacks in the country, and the third sign above counts those downs.
  2. Keep the game short, and keep it on schedule. Texas is 18 of 25 on third downs shorter than five yards and 0 for 9 on third-and-long (Burnt Orange Nation, Oct 4; by our play-by-play count 6 of 26 at seven or more, the Oct 7 note in the call box), and its power success is at the 64th percentile, the one run-blocking rung that holds. Oklahoma allows 23.1% on third down. The way through is to never see third-and-long: Brown and Smothers on first down, the quick game, and a 40-point total that suits a team whose defense allows 2.19 points per scoring chance (95th).Keep the game short, and stay out of long third downs. Texas converts 18 of 25 third downs when it needs fewer than five yards and none of nine when it needs a lot by Burnt Orange Nation's count (by ours, 6 of 26 needing seven or more; see the Oct 7 note in the call box), and short-yardage pushes are the one thing its blocking does well. Oklahoma's defense allows fewer than one in four third-down conversions. The way through is to never face a long third down: run Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers on first down, throw short and quick, and settle for a low-scoring game, which suits a defense that gives up almost nothing once an opponent gets close.
  3. Win the kicking game this time. Gianni Spetic is 7 of 7 with a 52-yarder; Tate Sandell is 3 of 5 with a long of 34. The catch is the return game: Isaiah Sategna III has an 88-yard punt return touchdown and 18.6 a return, and Texas just allowed a 57-yard punt-return touchdown at Neyland, the first against it since 2013. In a 40-point game, the kicker is a chip and the punt team is the risk.Win the kicking game this time. Texas kicker Gianni Spetic has made all seven of his field goals, one from 52 yards; Oklahoma's Tate Sandell has missed two of five and has not made one longer than 34. The catch is punt returns: Oklahoma's Isaiah Sategna III has returned one 88 yards for a touchdown, and Texas just gave up a 57-yard punt-return touchdown at Tennessee, the first against Texas since 2013. In a low-scoring game, the kicker is an edge and the punt team is the risk.

How Oklahoma wins it

  1. Make Texas throw on third-and-long, then get there. Oklahoma's defense allows success at the 97th percentile and rush success at the 95th; Texas's line yards sit at the 18th and its passing-downs value at the 43rd. Stop Brown and Smothers on first down, which Oklahoma has done to everyone (2.52 line yards allowed, 84th), and Texas is in the down it has converted 6 of 26 times at seven or more by our count (the Oct 7 note in the call box), against 13 sacks.Make Texas throw on long third downs, then get to Manning. Oklahoma's defense stops plays and stops runs about as well as any in the country, and Texas's blocking on running plays has been in the bottom fifth of the country. Stop Brown and Smothers on first down, which Oklahoma has done to everyone it has played, and Texas is in the situation it has converted only 6 of 26 times needing seven or more by our count (the Oct 7 note in the call box), against a defense with 13 sacks.
  2. Sategna and Beers on the Texas safeties. Oklahoma's explosive passing is at the 80th percentile, its best offensive number: Sategna is 20 for 267 with a 53-yard catch, Rocky Beers 18 for 255 at 14.2 with a 43-yarder, and Mateer is at 8.1 an attempt. Texas allows explosive passes at the 70th percentile, the one bar on its side of the board that does not lead, and the secondary's Lean strength was the regrade the bye report was least sure of.Get Isaiah Sategna III and Rocky Beers behind the Texas safeties. Long passes are the one thing Oklahoma's offense does well: Sategna has a 53-yard catch, tight end Beers averages 14 yards a catch with a 43-yarder, and Mateer averages 8.1 yards a throw. Texas's pass defense is good but not elite at preventing long passes, and last week's report said moving the secondary up was the regrade we were least sure of.
  3. Zero turnovers, and a return. Oklahoma is −6 in turnover margin, and the number is a habit as much as luck: its interception margin is −3 on Mateer's four, its fumble margin −3 on six lost. Texas is at 0 in both. The Sooners' one play of the year for the margins is Sategna's 88-yard punt return; the Texas punt team just gave one up. A clean game and one return is how a 9-point favorite loses in Dallas, and it has happened to Texas here before.No giveaways, and one big return. Oklahoma has given the ball away six more times than it has taken it, and that is a habit as much as bad luck: half of it is interceptions (Mateer's four against one taken) and half is fumbles (six lost against three recovered). Texas is dead even. Oklahoma's one special-teams weapon is Sategna's 88-yard punt return, and Texas's punt coverage just gave one up. A clean game and one big return is how a 9-point favorite loses in Dallas, and it has happened to Texas here before.

The Matchup Board

Each bar is that side of the team's rank against every other team in the country, computed from 2026 through four games with garbage time removed, or, where it tells the truer story, from the full 2025 season; the note says which. Both teams had Week 5 off, so these are the same four games the bye week report regraded, against a field that has played one more. Mateer started 12 of Oklahoma's 13 games in 2025 (he missed Kent State hurt), so Oklahoma's 2025 bars describe the same quarterback behind a different line. The edge label on each matchup is our judgment after looking at both years. The chips start from the bye week report's regrade (Strength on the front, Lean strength on the secondary, Open question on the passing game, the run game, the line, the receivers and special teams) and apply two lessons from the Aggies' grading on Sunday: the chips on the Texas coverage and the Texas protection are built from the opponent's quarterback and the opponent's rush, not from what Texas did last time out; and Coaching & Luck takes a side and says why.

Each bar shows how good that side of the team is compared with every other team in the country, using either the four games so far this year or all of last season, whichever tells the truer story; the note says which. Both teams had last week off, so these are the same four games we regraded in the bye week report, compared against teams that have now played one more. Oklahoma's quarterback, John Mateer, started all but one game last year too, so Oklahoma's numbers from last season describe the same quarterback behind different blockers. The longer bar has the edge, and the label next to each matchup is our judgment after looking at both. Our calls start from last week's regraded unit ratings and apply two lessons from the Aggies' grading on Sunday: our calls on Texas's pass defense and Texas's pass blocking are built from how good the other team's quarterback and pass rush are, not from how Texas did last time out; and our coaching-and-luck matchup picks a side and says why.

When Texas has the ball
Manning's Passing Game vs. the Sooner SecondaryEdge: Oklahoma
51%
96%
The 2026 bar leans Oklahoma by 45 (Texas passing value at the 51st percentile, Oklahoma at the 96th at value allowed and the 88th at pass success allowed); the 2025 bar leaned Oklahoma too (64 vs. 85). Manning is 74 of 116 for 865, 7.5 an attempt, seven touchdowns and three interceptions; the Sooner secondary has allowed one touchdown pass and made one interception in four games (Omarion Robinson's), with Peyton Bowen's four passes defended. Updated Oct 7: as first published this said the Sooner secondary had made four interceptions; four is the number Mateer has thrown, and Oklahoma's defense has one, per the committed player file, ESPN's team page and cfbstats. Caught by Wednesday's build. The chip rests on the percentiles and does not move. The schedule caveat cuts both ways (Oklahoma's four opponents include UTEP and New Mexico; Texas's include Ohio State and Tennessee) and does not close a 45-point gap. Oklahoma, on both years. This year's numbers lean Oklahoma by a lot: Texas's passing game has been about average, and Oklahoma's pass defense among the best in the country. Last year leaned Oklahoma too. Manning has completed 64% of his passes at 7.5 yards a throw with seven touchdowns and three interceptions; Oklahoma's pass defense has allowed one touchdown pass and intercepted one in four games. Updated Oct 7: as first published this said Oklahoma's pass defense had intercepted four passes; four is how many Mateer has thrown, and Oklahoma's defense has one. Caught by Wednesday's build. The pick does not change. Oklahoma played two weak opponents and Texas played two strong ones, but that does not close a gap this size. An Oklahoma edge, on both years' numbers.
The Texas Line vs. the Sooner Front (Run Blocking)Edge: Oklahoma
18%
84%
Texas line yards at the 18th percentile (2.71 a carry) against a Sooner front that allows 2.52, the 84th; the 2025 bar was worse (36 vs. 99). The bye report left the line an Open question and said it was "the first thing Oklahoma's front will test"; this is the test. Jordan Coleman is out with no dated update. The one rung Texas holds is power success at the 64th percentile, against an Oklahoma stuff rate at the 46th, which is why the short-yardage touchdowns keep landing. Oklahoma. Texas's blockers have been in the bottom fifth of the country at opening running lanes, and Oklahoma's front has been among the best at closing them; last year's gap was even wider. Last week's report said this line was the first thing Oklahoma's front would test, and it is. Lineman Jordan Coleman is out with no new word. The one thing Texas's line does well is short-yardage pushes, which is why Raleek Brown's short touchdown runs keep working. An Oklahoma edge.
Smothers, Brown and the Backs vs. the Sooner Run DefenseEdge: Oklahoma
22%
80%
Texas rushing value at the 22nd percentile against Oklahoma at the 80th at value allowed and the 95th at rush success allowed; the 2025 bar leaned Oklahoma by 45 (50 vs. 95). Smothers is 41 for 198 at 4.8 with the team's long run of 45; Brown 48 for 196 and four touchdowns; Cooper 20 for 57. Texas's open-field yards sit at the 10th percentile: the long run has not existed. Oklahoma has allowed 3.2 a carry and five rushing touchdowns, three of them to Georgia. Oklahoma, with Smothers's return the thing that could make it slight by Friday. Texas's running game has been below average and Oklahoma's run defense among the best; last year leaned Oklahoma too. Hollywood Smothers averages 4.8 a carry with the team's longest run (45 yards), Raleek Brown has four touchdowns, Derrek Cooper 57 yards. Texas almost never breaks a long run. Oklahoma allows 3.2 yards a carry. An Oklahoma edge, and Smothers coming back is the thing that could narrow it by Friday.
Texas Pass Protection vs. the Sooner Pass RushEdge: Oklahoma
15%
91%
Tied for the widest gap on the board, 76 points, with the Sooner run game against the Texas run defense, and built from the rush per the lesson: Oklahoma's front-seven havoc is at the 91st percentile with 13 sacks in four games (Adebawore 2.5, Heinecke 2 with 28 tackles, Powers 2 with four tackles for loss). Texas allows havoc at the 15th and has allowed ten sacks, six at Neyland; last year's bar was Oklahoma's too (42 vs. 99). The second tell counts it. Oklahoma. One of the two biggest gaps on our board, and built from how good Oklahoma's pass rush is, which is the lesson from last week: Oklahoma gets into the backfield more than most teams, with 13 sacks in four games. Texas's blockers let defenders through more than most teams and have allowed ten sacks, six at Tennessee; last year favored Oklahoma too. The second early sign above counts it. An Oklahoma edge.
Texas Deep Game vs. Sooner CoverageEdge: Even
49%
96%
The bar leans Oklahoma by 47: Texas pass explosiveness at the 49th percentile, Sooner coverage at the 96th at explosives allowed (1.28 a play). The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 27 (92 vs. 65), and that is the reason this is Even and not Oklahoma: the Texas deep game was the 92nd percentile a year ago with the same quarterback and two of the same receivers (Wingo, 19 for 239 with a 45-yard catch; Mosley, 12 for 173 with a 43), plus Cam Coleman at 17.6 a catch, and Oklahoma's coverage number was built against UTEP, Michigan, New Mexico and Georgia, three of whom do not throw deep. Even, on the two years disagreeing; the first tell is the referee. This year's numbers lean Oklahoma: Texas's long passing game has been about average, and Oklahoma's pass defense has allowed fewer long passes than almost anyone. Last year leaned Texas by a lot, and that is why we call this a toss-up instead of giving it to Oklahoma: Texas's deep passing was among the best in the country a year ago with the same quarterback and two of the same receivers, Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V, plus Cam Coleman at 17.6 yards a catch, and Oklahoma's number was built against four opponents, three of whom rarely throw deep. A toss-up, and the first early sign above settles it.
When Oklahoma has the ball
Mateer's Passing Game vs. Texas CoverageEdge: Texas
85%
56%
Built from the quarterback, per the lesson: Oklahoma's passing value is at the 56th percentile and its passing success rate at the 38th; Mateer is 72 of 109 for 883, 8.1 an attempt, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, and was 25 of 34 for 231 at Georgia with an interception and two lost fumbles. Texas allows passing value at the 85th and pass success at the 91st, and Biles has two interceptions. The 2025 bar leaned Texas too (69 vs. 36), and the last meeting was a three-interception day for Mateer, 20 of 38 for 202. Texas, full size. This one is built from how good the other quarterback is, which is the lesson from last week: Oklahoma's passing game has been a little above average on yards and below average on consistency. Mateer has completed 66% of his passes at 8.1 yards a throw with eight touchdowns and four interceptions, and at Georgia he threw an interception and lost two fumbles. Texas's pass defense has been among the best in the country, and linebacker Rasheem Biles has two interceptions. Last year leaned Texas too, and in last year's game Mateer threw three interceptions. A full Texas edge.
Avant and the Sooner Backs vs. the Texas Run DefenseEdge: Texas
77%
1%
Oklahoma's rushing value is at the 1st percentile and its rush success rate at the 7th: 396 yards on 135 carries, 2.9 a carry, two rushing touchdowns, and nothing longer than Ben McCreary's 24. Avant is 42 for 164; Mateer, 41 for 76 with the sacks counted against him, the way the NCAA counts them. Texas allows rushing value at the 77th and rush success at the 75th, held Tennessee to 70 on the ground, and the 2025 bar leaned Texas as well (85 vs. 20). Texas, and the only question is whether the 1st percentile is the line or the backs; the next pairing says mostly the line. Oklahoma's running game has been the second-worst in the country by our main measure: 396 yards on 135 carries, 2.9 a carry, two rushing touchdowns, and no run longer than 24 yards. Lloyd Avant has 164 yards; Mateer's own runs net 76 once sacks are subtracted. Texas's run defense has been good, held Tennessee to 70 rushing yards, and last year's numbers leaned Texas too. A Texas edge, and the only question is whether the fault is the blockers or the backs; the next matchup says mostly the blockers.
The Sooner Line vs. the Texas Front (Run Blocking)Edge: Texas
82%
7%
Oklahoma's line creates 2.50 line yards a carry (7th percentile), is stuffed on 25.0% of runs (8th) and converts 33.3% in power situations, the 0th percentile, which is to say last; Fasusi, a starting tackle, has not played since the opener. The Texas front allows 2.56 line yards (82nd) and stuffs 20.8% (67th), and the 2025 bar leaned Texas too (78 vs. 18). Texas, full size, on the bars and the bodies. Oklahoma's blockers have been among the worst in the country at the line of scrimmage, get their runners stopped at the line more than almost anyone, and are last in the country at converting short-yardage runs; a starting tackle, Michael Fasusi, has not played since the opener. Texas's defensive front has been very good at the line, and last year leaned Texas too. A full Texas edge.
Sooner Pass Protection vs. the Texas Pass RushEdge: Texas
89%
30%
Built from the Texas rush: front-seven havoc at the 89th percentile, 15 sacks (Simmons 7 with 8.5 tackles for loss, Watson 2, Biles, Umeozulu, Kanu, Lance Jackson and January one each, Matthews and Orogbo a half), 18 hurries, and the Strength chip the bye report put on the front. Oklahoma's protection allows havoc at the 30th and has allowed eight sacks with a shuffled line. The 2025 bar leaned Texas too (82 vs. 28), and one of Mateer's two lost fumbles at Georgia was a strip-sack, the other came out on a scramble at the goal line. Texas, full size; the third tell counts the downs where it matters most. Built from how good Texas's pass rush is: it wrecks plays more often than most, has 15 sacks, seven by Colin Simmons, and last week's report rated the front a Strength. Oklahoma's blockers let defenders through more than most and have allowed eight sacks with a lineup that keeps changing. Last year leaned Texas too, and one of Mateer's two lost fumbles at Georgia came on a sack, the other on a scramble at the goal line. A full Texas edge; the third early sign above counts the downs where it matters most.
Sategna, Beers and the Deep Game vs. Texas CoverageEdge: Even
70%
80%
The one bar on this side Texas does not lead: Oklahoma's explosive passing is at the 80th percentile, Texas allows explosives at the 70th. Sategna is 20 for 267 with a 53-yard catch, Beers 18 for 255 at 14.2 with a 43, and Trell Harris (6 for 104, 17.3) is out. The 2025 bar leaned Texas by 34 (71 vs. 37), with Mateer throwing to a different group. Even: ten points apart this year, the other way last year, and the secondary's Lean strength was the regrade the bye report was least sure of. The one matchup on this side Texas does not lead: Oklahoma completes long passes more often than most, and Texas's defense allows them a little less often than most. Isaiah Sategna III has a 53-yard catch, tight end Rocky Beers a 43-yarder, and Trell Harris, their third deep threat, is out. Last year leaned Texas, with Mateer throwing to different receivers. A toss-up: the two numbers are close this year, leaned the other way last year, and the secondary's rating was the one last week's report was least sure of.
The margins
Special Teams & Field PositionEdge: Texas, slight
80%
30%
The bar leans Texas by 50 (average starting spot at the 80th percentile to Oklahoma's 30th; last year 85 vs. 82). The kickers lean Texas: Spetic 7 of 7 with a 52-yarder and 16 of 16 on extra points, Sandell 3 of 5 with a long of 34. The punters lean Oklahoma (Jacob Ulrich 47.9 on seven, Grayson Miller 45.0 on ten, Mac Chiumento 43.9 on 13) and so does the return game: Sategna has a punt-return touchdown of 88 yards and 18.6 a return, Ryan Niblett 12.0, and the Texas punt team allowed the 57-yard touchdown at Neyland. Texas, slight, held to slight by the one unit on the field that beat it last time out. Texas has started its drives in much better field position than Oklahoma this year. The kickers lean Texas: Gianni Spetic has made all seven field goals and all 16 extra points, Tate Sandell has missed two of five. The punters lean Oklahoma, and so do the returners: Sategna has an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown, and Texas's punt coverage gave up a 57-yard touchdown at Tennessee. A slight Texas edge, held to slight by the one unit that beat Texas last time out.
Coaching & LuckEdge: Texas
No computed bar, and no Even: Even has graded wrong on every A&M board this season and right on every Texas board, and this page takes a side anyway, because a 136–43 history and a −6 turnover margin are not a coin flip. Texas. The luck half: Texas's turnover margin is 0, fumbles 0 and interceptions 0, with nothing in it to regress; Oklahoma's −6 is interceptions −3 and fumbles −3, and the interception half is a habit (Mateer's four, after 11 last year) while the fumble half is the luckiest stat there is and due to shrink. The coaching half: Sarkisian is 3-1 against Venables with the four games at 136–43, and Oklahoma has not scored a touchdown in any of the three losses; Venables spent the bye week saying "John's our starting quarterback" with the backups, Whitt Newbauer and Bowe Bentley, listed behind him with an "OR," and said the offense has felt "like we're going upstream." Texas's own discipline note: 62.5 penalty yards a game to Oklahoma's 53.5, and two celebrations at Neyland, one of them flagged, that the athletic director called "embarrassing." No bar here, and no toss-up: calling this a toss-up has been wrong every week on the A&M pages and right every week on the Texas pages; this page picks a side anyway, and says why. Texas. The luck half: Texas has given the ball away exactly as often as it has taken it, so there is nothing in its number waiting to even out; Oklahoma is six behind, half on interceptions, which is a habit (Mateer threw 11 last year), and half on fumbles, which are mostly luck and should even out. The coaching half: Sarkisian has beaten Venables three times in four tries, by a combined 136 to 43, and Oklahoma did not score a touchdown in any of the three losses; Venables spent the week off saying Mateer is his starter, with the backups, Whitt Newbauer and Bowe Bentley, listed as co-No. 2s behind him, and admitted the offense has felt like it is going upstream. Texas's own weak spot is discipline: about 63 penalty yards a game to Oklahoma's 54, and two celebrations at Tennessee, one of them penalized, that its athletic director called "embarrassing."

Game-Week Intel

Texas Storylines

Oklahoma Storylines

Chatter check: Longhorn spaces spent the bye on the celebrations, the Cam Coleman contract, Manning's third downs and whether a 9-point win keeps the No. 1 vote (Hook'em Headlines, Oct 4: Texas lost one first-place vote while idle, 62 to 61); Sooner spaces are on Mateer's job, Ben Arbuckle's play-calling and Kevin Wilson's name (Roundtable Sports via Yahoo, Oct 3, an opinion piece, not reporting), with Venables's only word on it the family line from after Georgia: "you don't have to have an alignment in the moment for your team to still stay strong" (Sooners On SI, Sept 27). Nothing in it moves a number on this page.

Availability & Injury Report · from the week's dated reporting; neither coach had held his game-week Monday session when this page was built, and the SEC's official report (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday evening and 90 minutes before kickoff) is the word that counts. The Walkthrough carries it. Texas: Hollywood Smothers · RB · Expected back, lower leg, sat Tennessee as "an emergency for us"; Sarkisian, Sept 28: "I think he'll be fine in a couple weeks when we play OU" (Burnt Orange Nation). Cam Coleman · WR · Probable, a bone bruise from the Neyland grass, "nothing serious" (Sarkisian, Sept 28, Burnt Orange Nation). Colin Simmons · EDGE · Available, played Tennessee in a large brace on his left arm (Burnt Orange Nation, Sept 26). Derrek Cooper · RB · Available, played Tennessee, "got rolled up there as well" (Sarkisian, Sept 26). Justus Terry · DL · Out, no update (toe; out three straight games; out on the SEC's Sept 25 report; not addressed Sept 28). Nick Townsend · TE · Out, no update (knee; out since Ohio State; out on the Sept 25 report; not addressed Sept 28). Jordan Coleman · OL · Out, no update (joined the list the week of Tennessee; out on the Sept 25 report). Xavier Filsaime · DB · Out, no update (has not played this season; out on the Sept 25 report). Cole Hutson · OL · Eligibility pending, no update, as the bye week report carried him; nothing dated since. Oklahoma: John Mateer · QB · Available, the starter (Venables, Sept 30: "John's our starting quarterback"). David Stone · DL · Available, dislocated his kneecap in practice Sept 21, was cleared Saturday and played at Georgia with two tackles (Orangebloods, Sept 28). Michael Fasusi · OL · Out, no update, right shoulder, has not played since the opener; out on the SEC's final report before Georgia, Saturday Sept 26, 90 minutes before kickoff; Venables after the Georgia game, Sept 26 (The Oklahoman; carried by Orangebloods Sept 28): "All the most recent scans (say) he's made some improvement from where he was." Trell Harris · WR · Out, no update, hurt at Michigan, missed New Mexico and Georgia, out on the Saturday Sept 26 report (The Norman Transcript via Yahoo). Cole Sullivan · LB · Out, no update, Taylor Heim · LB · Out, no update, Michael Boganowski · DB · Out, no update and Jer'Michael Carter · WR · Out, no update, all out on the SEC's final report before Georgia, Saturday Sept 26, 90 minutes before kickoff (The Norman Transcript via Yahoo); nothing dated since. Owen Heinecke · LB · Questionable, no update, favored his right leg and went to the injury tent in the second quarter at Georgia (The Oklahoman, Sept 26); Venables deferred to the SEC's report when asked Wednesday (Sooners On SI, Oct 1). Jacobe Johnson · DB · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown and Mackenzie Alleyne · WR · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown (Sooners On SI, Oct 1). Kip Lewis · LB · Available, came off the Saturday report and played at Georgia. Updated Oct 6: Sarkisian held his Monday session and named nobody ("I think we're healthier than we were this time a week ago"); Smothers and Townsend returned to practice during the bye week per Inside Texas (both now "Back at practice, no ruling" in the ledger), Terry is the status to watch Wednesday, and the Texas line has been the same five in all four games per the game notes; Venables's weekly session is Tuesday, and Mateer spoke Monday. All of it, with the ledger, is in Tuesday's Early Downs edition. Nothing moves a chip, a tell or the call. Updated Oct 7: Venables's Tuesday session and Monday night's coach's show are in Wednesday's Third Down edition: he named nobody and deferred to Wednesday's report ("We might have several guys available that we didn't have last game, but you won't know until Wednesday"); Harris is out "for the foreseeable future" per Sooners On SI's paraphrase of Venables; Stone says he is ready; the Georgia-game right-guard rotation was Ozaeta 42 snaps, Best 16, Joseph 14 per 247Sports; nothing dated Tuesday on Heinecke, Johnson, Alleyne or Fasusi, and nothing dated Tuesday on any Texas status (the SEC's first report is tonight at 7:10 PM CT). No status here was wrong; no chip, no tell and not the call changed. Updated Oct 8: the SEC's Wednesday report, the first official word of the week, is in Thursday's Red Zone, Goal Line & Special Teams edition, and it moves more than a dozen of the statuses above. Texas: Smothers is not on it (available); Townsend is probable; Terry is doubtful; Jordan Coleman is out; Filsaime is off it for the first time this season; Kaliq Lockett, WR, is doubtful, a name this block did not carry; Hutson is available on the conference's feed, the eligibility question unaddressed. Oklahoma, 13 names: Heim, Harris, Jacobe Johnson and Xavier Robinson out; Fasusi, Fred Hinton and Trynae Washington doubtful; Sullivan, Boganowski, Carter, Pierre-Louis and Jack Van Dorselaer questionable; Heinecke probable; Alleyne and Stone not listed. No chip, no tell and not the call moves: Smothers available is what chip w6-e3 assumed, and the Sooner line chip gains two more bodies in doubt. The Thursday report comes this evening; the Walkthrough reads both. Checked Monday, Oct 5, about 6 AM CT. Statuses from before Saturday, Sept 26, the last game day for both teams, are carried only where they are the last official word; the Oklahoma statuses are from that Saturday's 90-minute report.

What the Data Says

Two sets of numbers: the full 2025 season, and 2026 through four games, which is a watch and not a verdict. The SP+ rows are as the data service published them before the Week 5 games; neither team played in Week 5. Definitions for every metric live in the Data Dictionary.

Two sets of numbers: all of last season, and the four games so far this year, which is still early to trust. The ratings rows were last updated before last Saturday's games, which neither team played in. Every number is defined in the Data Dictionary.

Schedule-adjusted view (SP+)TexasOklahoma
SP+ overall, 2025 (rank)+16.2 (No. 17)+18.3 (No. 14)
SP+ overall, 2026 (rank), pre-Week 5+22.4 (No. 7)+12.8 (No. 27)
SP+ offense, 2026+35.7+26.1
SP+ defense, 2026 (lower is better)+13.6+13.6
Off. success rate, 2026 (pctl)44.9% (59th)37.6% (10th)
Off. explosiveness, 2026 (pctl)1.13 (17th)1.15 (22nd)
Def. success rate, 2026 (pctl)34.4% (87th)30.7% (97th)
Def. points per scoring opportunity, 2026 (pctl)2.19 (95th)2.08 (97th)
Third down, 2026 (offense / defense)50.0% / 34.5%34.0% / 23.1%
Turnover margin, 2025 / 2026+14 / 0−3 / −6
Sacks made / allowed, 202615 / 1013 / 8
Penalty yards a game, 202662.553.5
2025 record10-310-3
2026 results59-7 Texas State, 24-23 Ohio State, 30-6 UTSA, 20-17 at Tennessee51-0 UTEP, 10-17 at Michigan, 14-6 New Mexico, 13-41 at Georgia

What the table says: the two defenses rate identically in SP+ (13.6 and 13.6) and the Texas offense rates 9.6 points better, which with no home field is the model's 9.6 exactly. The rows underneath say the same thing in different words: the two defenses are 87th and 97th at stopping plays and 95th and 97th at keeping opponents out once they get close, while the Texas offense is 59th at staying on schedule and Oklahoma's is 10th. Neither offense is explosive (17th and 22nd). The third-down row is the game: Texas converts half of its own and Oklahoma allows fewer than a quarter. Last year's rows describe two 10-3 teams, Oklahoma rated higher, and a Texas turnover margin that this page has said all season was due to shrink; it has, to 0.

The install · Week 6 · every edition on its slot

Each edition below names the matchup it installs. Texas A&M plays at Missouri the same day, at 11 AM; its own install runs beside this one.

Tue · Early DownsThe run ladder, both sides. Smothers and Brown against a front that allows 2.52 line yards a carry and rush success at the 95th percentile, and Avant and the Sooner line, 2.50 line yards and a 25.0% stuff rate, against the front that held Tennessee to 70. Done Tuesday, Oct 6: the Early Downs edition, sixteen rungs, all sixteen to the defenses.
Wed · Third DownManning on third down against 13 sacks, and Mateer on third down against the Texas rush. Texas converts 50.0% and, by our play-by-play count, 6 of 26 at seven or more (corrected Oct 7 from Burnt Orange Nation's 0 for 9; see the call box); Oklahoma converts 34.0% on a passing-downs number at the 17th percentile. The Texas defense allows 34.5%, Oklahoma's 23.1%. The pass ladder, protection both ways (ten sacks allowed against eight), and the coverage against Sategna and Beers. Done Wednesday, Oct 7: the Third Down edition, fourteen rungs, thirteen to the defenses.
Thu · Red Zone & STFinishing drives. Texas scores 4.25 points per scoring opportunity (64th percentile), Oklahoma 3.39 (28th); the Texas defense allows 2.19 (95th), Oklahoma's 2.08 (97th). Goal line (Texas 64th in power success, Oklahoma 0th), the kickers (7 of 7 against 3 of 5), the punters, Sategna's returns and the Texas punt team. Done Thursday, Oct 8: the Red Zone, Goal Line & Special Teams edition, ten rungs, eight to the defenses; Texas 17 of 19 in the red zone by the play-by-play and the official statistics, Oklahoma nine trips in four games; the SEC's Wednesday report, both sides.
Fri · WalkthroughThe digest, the availability sweep, and the Walkthrough Revision at 2:33 PM CT, kickoff minus 24 hours: the SEC's Wednesday and Thursday reports, the Friday lines, and the call changed for a stated reason or affirmed. The answer lands in the call box.

Sources & Method

Our call follows the betting line, and our computer model is printed beside it for comparison, because the line has been the better guide: the one time they disagreed on a winner this season, Ohio State at Texas, the line was right; on margin the market leads 5 to 4. This week the two agree to within half a point. Oklahoma's crimson fails our color check in both modes (too dark for a bar) and its cream never passes, so Oklahoma appears on this page in a lifted shade of its own crimson, rung 3 of our clash ladder, validated against burnt orange in both modes, with the team named on every label. Not betting advice. Every claim on this page is graded Sunday, misses first.