The compressed field, both ways: finishing drives, how often a drive gets there at all, the goal line by power success, the turnover profile with its luck sorted from its habit, and the kicking game, for an 11 AM kickoff at Faurot Field the market has at a field goal. The fact the page is built around: Missouri's defense has allowed ten red-zone trips in five games, two a game, and nine of the ten scored; it keeps drives out of its 40 at a rate all but 13 defenses in the country would trade for, and once a drive is inside its 20 it has stopped one. The Aggies have scored on 19 of their 23 trips inside the 20 this season, touchdowns on 16, so the question Saturday is not whether A&M finishes but whether it gets there. The other way, Missouri settles: 13 touchdowns on 24 red-zone trips, a kicker who is 8 of 12 with two of the misses blocked, and a punter and a returner who are the reason its field position is the fourth-best in the country. The SEC's first availability report of the week is in: Craver questionable a second week, Blake Ivy out for the first time, Watkins and Morrow not listed; Missouri lists 16 names, seven starters questionable, among them DaMarion Fowlkes, the returner this page is partly about, and Cayden Green, the left tackle. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them.
Today is about the short field: what each team does once it gets close to scoring, how often it gets close at all, whether it can get two yards when it needs them, who gives the ball away and who takes it, and the kickers, punters and return men, all for an 11 in the morning kickoff at Missouri in a game the betting line has at a field goal. The fact this page is built around: Missouri's defense has let opponents inside its 20 only ten times in five games, two a game, and nine of those ten trips produced points; it keeps drives from getting close better than all but 13 defenses in the country, and once a drive is inside its 20 it has stopped exactly one. A&M has scored on 19 of its 23 trips inside the 20 this season, 16 of them touchdowns, so the question Saturday is not whether A&M can finish but whether it can get there. The other way, Missouri settles for less than it should: 13 touchdowns on 24 trips inside the 20, a kicker who has missed four of 12 field goals, two of them blocked, and a punter and a kick returner who are the reason Missouri starts its drives closer to the other end zone than all but three teams in the country. The conference's first official injury list of the week is out: Mario Craver is a coin flip to play for the second week in a row, lineman Blake Ivy is out for the first time this season, and Watkins and Morrow are not on it; Missouri lists 16 names, seven of them starters who are uncertain, among them DaMarion Fowlkes, the return man this page is partly about, and left tackle Cayden Green. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them.
Read it top to bottom: what a drive is worth once it crosses the opponent's 40 (points per scoring opportunity, the public stand-in for red-zone efficiency; the snapshot we build from carries no red-zone count, so the red-zone numbers on this page come from both schools' official statistics and from the play-by-play we hold), how often a drive gets there at all, whether the offense can get two yards when everyone knows it will run (power success, the goal-line proxy), how often a run dies behind the line, and where drives start. A&M wins the two rungs that are about finishing and Missouri the three that are about getting there, and the play-by-play says the split is real. The Aggies score 4.47 points per scoring opportunity, the 76th percentile, 33rd in FBS, and their official statistics say how: 19 scores on 23 red-zone trips (83%, which Missouri's game notes rank 93rd nationally, because the scoring rate counts the two fourth-down tries against it) and 16 touchdowns (70%), 7 of 8 against Missouri State and then, in the four games we hold play-by-play for, 15 trips, 12 scores, ten touchdowns, two field goals, two turnovers on downs (Owens on fourth and 1 at the Kentucky 11, Baker on fourth and 1 at the Arkansas 1 with 55 seconds left and a 27-point lead) and one trip spent kneeling out the Arizona State game. Of 11 goal-to-go series in those games, eight ended in touchdowns, two in field goals and one at the Arkansas 1; all ten Aggie rushing touchdowns this season came from the 20 or closer, Edwards's 20-yarder the longest. On the goal-line rung A&M converts 84% of its power runs, the 91st percentile, 12th in FBS, 13 of 17 by our count in the held games, against a Missouri front that allows 68%, the 59th. Then the three rungs Missouri owns. A&M gets a drive inside the 40 on 0.68 of its possessions, the 67th percentile; Missouri lets opponents there on 0.41 of theirs, the 90th, 14th in FBS, and its official statistics say what happens next: ten red-zone trips allowed in five games, nine scored, six touchdowns (one rushing, five passing) and three field goals, the one empty trip a turnover on downs, and two rushing touchdowns allowed on 170 carries all season; Missouri's notes rank its red-zone defense tied for 99th nationally by scoring rate and A&M's tied for 10th. Nine of ten is a defense that does not finish; two trips a game is a defense that is rarely asked to. Missouri stuffs 27.5% of runs at or behind the line, the 93rd percentile, tenth in FBS, against an Aggie run game stuffed on 16.9% (52nd), which is Tuesday's chip from the other side. And field position: A&M starts at its own 32.7 on average (86th, 18th in FBS), good, and Missouri's opponents start at their own 24.1 (95th for the Missouri defense, 7th in FBS), better, the punter and the returner below. Elko, Monday, on the Arkansas win: "we did a really good job scoring touchdowns in the red zone" (Texas A&M On SI). So the case runs through Tuesday's page a third time: the Aggies have finished 19 of 23 and the Tigers have allowed nine of ten, and none of it matters unless the run game that found itself against Arkansas gets a drive past a front that stuffs one run in four. Monday's chips stand: Missouri at the line (w6-e2); Missouri, slight, with the backs (w6-e3). The finishing rung and the goal-line rung are the Aggies' answer to them, not a change to them, and the second tell, 60 yards on the first 15 carries, is where the answer starts.
Read it top to bottom: how many points a drive produces once it gets inside the other team's 40 (our stand-in for red-zone efficiency, because the data we build from does not count red-zone trips; the red-zone numbers on this page come from both schools' official statistics and from the play-by-play of A&M's games), how often a drive gets that far at all, whether the offense can get two yards when everyone in the stadium knows it will run (the goal-line test), how often a run is stopped behind the line, and where drives start. A&M wins the two rows about finishing and Missouri the three about getting there, and the play-by-play says that split is real. A&M turns a trip inside the 40 into more points than most teams, 33rd of 138, and its official statistics say how: 19 scores on 23 trips inside the 20 (83%, which Missouri's game notes rank only 93rd in the country, because that rate counts the two failed fourth downs against it) and 16 touchdowns (70%), 7 of 8 against Missouri State and then, in the four games we have play-by-play for, 15 trips, 12 scores, ten touchdowns, two field goals, two failed fourth downs (Owens at the Kentucky 11, Baker at the Arkansas 1 with 55 seconds left and a 27-point lead) and one trip spent kneeling out the clock against Arizona State. Of the 11 times A&M had a first down inside the other team's 10 in those games, eight ended in touchdowns, two in field goals and one at the Arkansas 1; all ten A&M rushing touchdowns this season came from the 20 or closer, Edwards's 20-yarder the longest. In short yardage A&M converts 84% of the time, 12th-best in the country, 13 of 17 by our count in the games we hold, against a Missouri front that allows 68%, about average. Then the three rows Missouri owns. A&M gets a drive inside the 40 on about two of every three possessions, better than average; Missouri lets opponents there on about two of every five, better than all but 13 defenses in the country, and its official statistics say what happens next: ten trips inside its 20 allowed in five games, nine of them scored, six touchdowns (one running, five passing) and three field goals, the one empty trip a failed fourth down, and two rushing touchdowns allowed on 170 carries all season; Missouri's own notes rank its red-zone defense tied for 99th in the country by that scoring rate and A&M's tied for 10th. Nine of ten says Missouri's defense does not finish; two trips a game says it is rarely asked to. Missouri stops one run in four at or behind the line, tenth-best in the country, against an A&M running game that gets stopped behind the line about as often as average, which is Tuesday's matchup from the other side. And where drives start: A&M starts at about its own 33 on average, among the best in the country, and Missouri's opponents start at about their own 24, better still for Missouri, because of the punter and the return man below. Elko, on Monday, about the Arkansas win: "we did a really good job scoring touchdowns in the red zone." So the case runs through Tuesday's page a third time: A&M has finished 19 of 23 and Missouri has allowed nine of ten, and none of it matters unless the running game that showed up against Arkansas can get a drive past a front that stops one run in four. Monday's picks stand: Missouri at the line of scrimmage, and a slight Missouri edge against A&M's running backs. The finishing and short-yardage rows are A&M's answer to those picks, not a change to them, and the second early sign, 60 yards on the first 15 running plays, is where the answer starts.
The mirror, and the ladder the Aggie defense wins, three rungs to two, on the rungs that decide points. Missouri gets a drive inside the 40 on 0.78 of its possessions, the 89th percentile, 15th in FBS, and then scores 3.81 points per scoring opportunity, the 49th, 71st in FBS, and its official statistics say where the points go: 24 red-zone trips, 19 scores, 13 touchdowns (seven rushing, six passing), six field goals, and five trips with nothing: two missed field goals, a turnover on downs and two run out by the clock; the notes rank that red-zone offense 105th nationally by scoring rate. Thirteen on 24 is 54%; the Aggies are at 70%. Ten of Missouri's 23 touchdowns came from outside the 20, Roberts's 80-yard run against Florida and Fowlkes's 68-yard punt return against Troy among them, which is the explosive offense the Game Plan's chips w6-e6 and w6-e10 are about, and the other side of it is a red-zone offense that has kicked six field goals from inside the 20 and come away empty five times. The Aggie defense across from it allows 2.83 points per scoring opportunity, the 80th percentile, 28th in FBS, and the play-by-play of the four games we hold says how it earns that: 13 red-zone trips allowed, nine scores, seven touchdowns, two field goals (both Arizona State's), two missed field goals (Kentucky from 39, LSU from 24) and two turnovers on downs, LSU's with 11 seconds left and Arkansas's at the 3 after a 12-play drive, Braylen Russell for a loss of 2 on fourth and 1, Rink and Brooks on the tackle. Its goal line is the rung that has cost it: eight goal-to-go series faced in those games, six touchdowns allowed, Kentucky's three and LSU's three, and the Arkansas stop. On the ladder the Aggie front allows 62% on power runs, the 80th percentile, 27th in FBS, 5 of 8 by our count, against a Missouri offense that converts 79% (70th), and stuffs 18.3% of runs (44th) against a Missouri line stuffed on 18.9% (31st), nearly the same number twice, which is why chip w6-e8 sits at slight. The rung Missouri wins outright is the bottom one, and it is not the offense's doing: Missouri starts at its own 35.8 on average, the 96th percentile and 4th in FBS, because Brunno Reus's punting and DaMarion Fowlkes's returns put it there, while A&M's opponents start at their own 27.9 (51st for the Aggie defense). Monday's chips stand: Texas A&M, slight, against the Tiger backs (w6-e7); Texas A&M, slight, at the Tiger line (w6-e8). The red zone is the Aggies' case for both; the Tigers' answer is the field position, their own 35.8 against the 27.9 the Aggie defense is used to, eight yards a drive.
The same ladder the other way, and the one A&M's defense wins, three rows to two, on the rows that decide points. Missouri gets a drive inside the 40 on nearly four of every five possessions, 15th-best in the country, and then scores about average once it is there, and its official statistics say where the points go: 24 trips inside the 20, 19 scores, 13 touchdowns (seven running, six passing), six field goals, and five trips with nothing: two missed field goals, a failed fourth down and two that ran out of clock; Missouri's own notes rank that red-zone offense 105th in the country. Thirteen touchdowns on 24 trips is 54%; A&M is at 70%. Ten of Missouri's 23 touchdowns came from outside the 20, Roberts's 80-yard run against Florida and Fowlkes's 68-yard punt return against Troy among them, which is the big-play offense Monday's page warned about, and the other side of it is a red-zone offense that has kicked six field goals from inside the 20 and come away with nothing five times. A&M's defense across from it gives up fewer points per trip inside its 40 than all but 27 defenses in the country, and the play-by-play of the four games we hold says how: 13 trips inside its 20 allowed, nine scores, seven touchdowns, two field goals (both Arizona State's), two missed field goals (Kentucky from 39 yards, LSU from 24) and two failed fourth downs, LSU's with 11 seconds left and Arkansas's at the 3 after a 12-play drive, when Braylen Russell was tackled for a loss of 2 on fourth-and-1 by Landon Rink and Dalton Brooks. The goal line is where it has been hurt: eight times an opponent had a first down inside A&M's 10 in those games, six ended in touchdowns, three for Kentucky and three for LSU, and the eighth was the Arkansas stop. In short yardage A&M's defense allows 62%, 5 of 8 by our count, 27th-best in the country, against a Missouri offense that converts 79%, and the two teams get stopped behind the line, and stop runs behind the line, at nearly the same rate, which is why Monday's pick on Missouri's blockers is only a slight A&M edge. The row Missouri wins outright is the bottom one, and it is not the offense's doing: Missouri starts its drives at about its own 36 on average, better than all but three teams in the country, because punter Brunno Reus and return man DaMarion Fowlkes put it there, while A&M's opponents start at about their own 28, which is average for a defense. Monday's picks stand: a slight A&M edge against Missouri's running backs, and a slight A&M edge at Missouri's line of scrimmage. The red zone is A&M's case for both; Missouri's answer is where its drives start, about its own 36 against the own 28 A&M's defense is used to, eight yards a drive.
A&M is +3, and all of it is fumbles; Missouri is +4, and all of it is interceptions. The Aggies have given the ball away six times (one fumble, Isaiah Horton's, and five interceptions: four by Reed, one by Brady Hart in Baton Rouge) and taken it away nine (five fumble recoveries and four interceptions: Marco Jones's and Julio Humphrey's, both returned for touchdowns against Arizona State, Marcus Ratcliffe's at LSU, Dalton Brooks's against Arkansas). The fumble margin of +4 is the luckiest number in football and not a habit; the interception margin of −1 is the habit, and game by game it has gone even, plus one, minus two, minus one and plus one. (The standing caveat: A&M's official box scores credit four opponent fumbles lost, not five, which makes the fumble margin +3 and the whole thing +2; the snapshot we build from says +4 and +3, the Game Plan's figures.) The other number cuts the Aggies' way: 41 points off turnovers this season, three allowed, by the official boxes; Missouri's is the same number cutting the other way, 35 scored and none allowed, with five takeaways turned into touchdowns (its official statistics and notes). Missouri's +4 is the opposite shape. It has given the ball away twice, both fumbles (Jamal Roberts's and Donovan Olugbode's), and thrown no interception all season; it has taken it away six times, four interceptions (Robert Woodyard Jr., Jahlil Florence, Sione Laulea, Trajen Greco, one each) and two fumbles (Jason Dowell, Woodyard), and the fumble margin is zero on numbers that, if anything, have run against it: Missouri's opponents have put the ball on the ground eight times and lost two, Missouri five times and lost two. Four interceptions made against none thrown is closer to a habit than a coin, which is Monday's reason for the first Coaching & Luck chip that took a side. Penalties, the other giveaway: A&M 25 for 204 yards, 40.8 a game; Missouri 36 for 342, 68.4, and its opponents 41 for 384, so Missouri's games have been flag-heavy both ways. Monday's chip stands: Missouri, slight, on coaching and luck (w6-e12), with the Aggie fumble margin discounted as unknown, not durable, and the Tiger interception margin counted as the thing it is until Reed, who has thrown four, meets a secondary that has caught four.
A&M has come out three turnovers ahead this season, all of it on fumbles; Missouri is four ahead, all of it on interceptions. A&M has given the ball away six times (one fumble, by Isaiah Horton, and five interceptions: four thrown by Reed, one by Brady Hart at LSU) and taken it away nine times (five fumbles recovered and four interceptions: Marco Jones's and Julio Humphrey's, both returned for touchdowns against Arizona State, Marcus Ratcliffe's at LSU and Dalton Brooks's against Arkansas). Which team recovers a bouncing ball is mostly luck, so the plus-four on fumbles is a coin that has landed heads; the minus-one on interceptions is the pattern, and game by game it has gone even, plus one, minus two, minus one and plus one. (The usual caveat: A&M's official box scores count four opponent fumbles recovered, not five, which would make it plus two overall; the data we build from says plus three, the number Monday's page used.) The other number cuts A&M's way: it has scored 41 points off turnovers this season and allowed three; Missouri has the same thing going for it, 35 scored off turnovers and none allowed, with five takeaways turned into touchdowns. Missouri's plus-four is the opposite shape. It has given the ball away twice, both fumbles (by Jamal Roberts and Donovan Olugbode), and has not thrown an interception all season; it has taken the ball away six times, four interceptions (Robert Woodyard Jr., Jahlil Florence, Sione Laulea and Trajen Greco, one each) and two fumbles (Jason Dowell and Woodyard), and it has had no fumble luck at all: its opponents have put the ball on the ground eight times and lost only two, and Missouri has fumbled five times and lost two. Four interceptions caught and none thrown is closer to a habit than a coin flip, which is why Monday's coaching-and-luck pick took a side for the first time. Penalties are the other way to give something away: A&M has 25 for 204 yards, about 41 a game; Missouri 36 for 342, about 68, and Missouri's opponents have been flagged even more, 41 for 384, so flags fly both ways in Missouri's games. Monday's pick stands: a slight Missouri edge on coaching and luck, with A&M's fumble luck counted as unknown, not as a strength, and Missouri's interception edge counted as real until Reed, who has thrown four, meets a secondary that has caught four.
Monday's chip, Texas A&M, slight, on special teams and field position, was the kicker, the punter and the flags against a field-position bar that leans Missouri, and the sheet says why both are true. The kickers first, because this is a field-goal game. David Olano, PK, the SEC's special teams player of the week, is 7 of 7 with a long of 57, against Arkansas, 50 the same night and 53 at LSU, plus 19 of 19 extra points, and A&M's notes call him the only kicker in the country with seven or more field goals and 19 or more extra points without a miss and three field goals from 50 or more, with 72 straight extra points going back to his Illinois days; Asher Murray, PK, is 1 of 1 from 47. Blake Craig, PK, is 8 of 12 with a long of 52 and 22 of 22 extra points, and the misses, by Missouri's official sequence, came from 27 and 36 at Kansas, 52 at Mississippi State and 50 against Florida, two of the four blocked; he is 6 of 7 from 30 to 39 and 2 of 4 from 50 and beyond, and against Florida he went 3 of 4, from 32, 50 and 52 with the miss from 50. The punters are closer than the averages say. Tyler White, P, averages 49.1 on 17 punts, long 58, eight inside the 20 by the official boxes and two touchbacks, 51.9 on seven at LSU, the fourth-best average in the country and the best in the SEC by A&M's notes, and Missouri's notes rank the Aggies third in net punting; opponents have returned seven of his punts for minus 3 yards in all. Brunno Reus, listed on Missouri's roster as a PK and the Tigers' punter, averages 46.5 on 20 with a 43.5 net, a long of 66, ten inside the 20, ten fair catches, three touchbacks and eight of 50 or more, and nobody has returned one of his punts all season: Missouri's opponents have zero punt returns, and Missouri ranks 19th in net punting. Drinkwitz, Tuesday night: "when Brunno's on and he's kicking, that's a weapon. We're pinning guys inside the 10 consistently; that's huge for us" (Rock M Nation). Kickoffs: Olano has 22 touchbacks on 26 by the official boxes (Colton Chmelar, PK, had four kickoffs and three touchbacks against Missouri State), and A&M has allowed four returns for 79; Reus has 26 touchbacks on 31 and Oliver Robbins, PK, three on three, 29 of 34, with four returns allowed for 71. The returners are where the bar comes from. DaMarion Fowlkes, WR, has six punt returns for 118, 19.7 a return, a 68-yard touchdown against Troy, and five kickoff returns for 144, 28.8, with a long of 54, and he is questionable on Wednesday's report, with Cayden Lee, WR, behind him on punts and Naeshaun Montgomery, WR, or Chris Graves Jr., CB, on kickoffs; Missouri's notes rank its punt returns 9th nationally and its kickoff returns 24th, A&M's 90th and 136th; A&M's own return game is Bussey's injury and Craver's status: Mario Craver, WR, has six punt returns for 27 (a long of 15, a muff he recovered against Kentucky, minus 1 against Arkansas), Rueben Owens II, RB, has taken the kickoffs since Bussey (fair catches at the 2 and the 3, a muff at the 1 at LSU that he recovered), Isaiah Horton, WR, fielded one punt at LSU, and Terry Bussey, WR, out for the year, still has the team's longest punt return (21) and all three kickoff returns with yards. SP+ special teams, as published before the Week 5 games: A&M at 0.0 and Missouri at minus 0.2, a wash the ratings do not settle. Field position, then: Missouri starts at its own 35.8 (4th in FBS) and A&M at its own 32.7 (18th), and the gap is a punter nobody returns and a returner who scores. The chip stands as Texas A&M, slight (w6-e11): 7 of 7 against 8 of 12 with two blocks, 41 penalty yards a game against 68, and the three points that decide this call are the ones Craig has missed from inside 40.
Monday gave A&M a slight special-teams edge because of its kicker, its punter and its penalty count, even though Missouri gets the better starting field position, and the numbers say both things are true. The kickers first, because this is a game the line says a field goal decides. A&M's David Olano, the conference's special teams player of the week, has made all seven of his field goals, including a 57-yarder against Arkansas, a 50-yarder the same night and a 53-yarder at LSU, and all 19 of his extra points; Asher Murray made his one try, from 47. Missouri's Blake Craig is 8 of 12 with a long of 52 and perfect on extra points, and the four misses came from 27 and 36 yards at Kansas, 52 at Mississippi State and 50 against Florida, two of them blocked; he is 6 of 7 from 30 to 39 yards and 2 of 4 from 50 and beyond, and against Florida he made three of four, from 32, 50 and 52 yards, with the miss from 50. The punters are closer than their averages say. A&M's Tyler White averages 49.1 yards on 17 punts, fourth-best in the country and best in the conference by A&M's own notes, with eight dropped inside the 20, and teams have returned seven of his punts for a total of minus 3 yards. Missouri's Brunno Reus (listed as a kicker on the roster; he is the punter) averages 46.5 on 20, with ten inside the 20, ten fair catches, a long of 66, and nobody has returned one of his punts all season. Drinkwitz on Tuesday night: "when Brunno's on and he's kicking, that's a weapon. We're pinning guys inside the 10 consistently; that's huge for us." Kickoffs: Olano has kicked 22 of 26 into the end zone for touchbacks (a second kicker, Colton Chmelar, had three of four against Missouri State), and A&M has allowed four kickoff returns for 79 yards; Reus has 26 touchbacks on 31 and Oliver Robbins three on three, and Missouri has allowed four returns for 71. The return men are where Missouri's field-position edge comes from. Receiver DaMarion Fowlkes averages almost 20 yards a punt return, with a 68-yard touchdown against Troy, and almost 29 yards a kickoff return, with a long of 54, and he is questionable on Wednesday's list, with Cayden Lee behind him on punts and Naeshaun Montgomery or Chris Graves Jr. on kickoffs; Missouri's return game ranks near the top of the country, A&M's near the bottom. A&M's return game is Terry Bussey's injury and Craver's status: Mario Craver has six punt returns for 27 yards (a long of 15, one he bobbled and recovered against Kentucky, and minus 1 against Arkansas), running back Rueben Owens II has handled kickoffs since Bussey was hurt (two fair catches deep in his own end, and one he bobbled at the 1 at LSU and recovered), Isaiah Horton fielded one punt at LSU, and Bussey, out for the year, still has the team's longest punt return (21 yards) and its only kickoff returns with yards. The computer rating for special teams, last updated before Saturday's games, calls the two teams about even. Where drives start, then: Missouri at about its own 36 on average, fourth-best in the country, A&M at about its own 33, 18th, and the gap is a punter nobody returns and a return man who scores. Monday's pick stands: a slight A&M edge, on 7 of 7 against 8 of 12 with two blocks, about 41 penalty yards a game against 68, and the three points that decide this game being the ones Craig has missed from inside 40 yards.
Texas A&M: Mario Craver · WR · Questionable, a second week on the report with the ankle from LSU, which the conference defines as about a 50% chance to play (KBTX); he was a game-time decision last Saturday, played 14 snaps against Arkansas by PFF's count via KBTX and left in the second quarter, and he is listed first at punt returner, "-OR-" Isaiah Horton, on the Missouri-week depth chart. Blake Ivy · OL · Out, on the report for the first time this season; KBTX counts all 209 of his snaps at left guard, 173 of them in the first three games, and since LSU the Aggies have had Trovon Baugh at left guard, Wilkin Formby at right guard and Lamont Rogers at right tackle. Terry Bussey · WR · Out, for the season. Not listed, which the conference's wording calls fully available: Tamarion Watkins · LB, who was out for Arkansas and whom Elko said Monday "should be fine" (TexAgs); Jamarion Morrow · RB, who was active against Arkansas and did not play (Texas A&M On SI via Yahoo); Ashton Bethel-Roman · WR, 39 snaps and three catches against Arkansas, and the "-OR-" kickoff returner behind Owens; Tawfiq Byard · S. Missouri: 16 names. Out: Ahmad Hardy · RB (not yet cleared to begin the two-week ramp-up, no timetable), JaDon Blair · S, Malae Fonoti · RB and Gavin Hoffman · TE (none has played since Week 1, per Missouri On SI), Josh Atkins · OL (has not played this season). Questionable: Darris Smith · EDGE and Langden Kitchen · EDGE, as Drinkwitz said Tuesday they would be, out since the Troy and Mississippi State games; Robert Woodyard Jr. · LB, "in and out" against Florida; and four names Drinkwitz and his players had not mentioned Tuesday (Missouri On SI): Cayden Green · OL, the left tackle and the Outland Trophy's national player of the week, 67 snaps against Florida; DaMarion Fowlkes · WR, the punt and kickoff returner, whose backups on the depth chart are Cayden Lee on punts and Naeshaun Montgomery or Chris Graves Jr. on kickoffs; Santana Banner · S (56 snaps and nine tackles against Florida) and Kensley Louidor-Faustin · S (36 snaps and a team-high 3.5 tackles for loss against Florida). Probable: Jaden Jones · EDGE, Bobby Washington Jr. · LB, Jahlil Florence · CB and Brett Norfleet · TE. Not listed: Simmons, Roberts, Lee, Olugbode, Craig, Reus, Rodriguez, Hopkins. The conference releases again Thursday and Friday at 7:10 PM and 90 minutes before kickoff. Every status is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams.
Texas A&M: receiver Mario Craver is questionable, a second week on the list with the ankle he hurt at LSU, which the conference defines as about a 50% chance to play; he was a game-time call last Saturday, played 14 snaps against Arkansas by one count and left in the second quarter, and he is still listed as the first punt returner, sharing the spot with Isaiah Horton. Lineman Blake Ivy is out, his first time on the list this season; he had played every one of his snaps at left guard, most of them in the first three games, and since the LSU game A&M has used Trovon Baugh at left guard, Wilkin Formby at right guard and Lamont Rogers at right tackle. Receiver Terry Bussey is out for the season. Not on the list, which under the conference's rules means fully available: linebacker Tamarion Watkins, who missed the Arkansas game and whom Elko said Monday "should be fine"; running back Jamarion Morrow, who dressed against Arkansas and did not play; receiver Ashton Bethel-Roman, who played 39 snaps and caught three passes against Arkansas and is the backup kickoff returner; safety Tawfiq Byard. Missouri: 16 names. Out: running back Ahmad Hardy (not yet cleared to start the two-week practice period the team requires, no timetable), safety JaDon Blair, running back Malae Fonoti and tight end Gavin Hoffman (none has played since the opener), and lineman Josh Atkins (has not played this season). Questionable: edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen, as Drinkwitz said Tuesday they would be, out since the Troy and Mississippi State games; linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr., who was in and out of the Florida game; and four names nobody at Missouri had mentioned Tuesday: left tackle Cayden Green, the national lineman of the week, who played 67 snaps against Florida; receiver DaMarion Fowlkes, the punt and kickoff returner, whose backups are Cayden Lee on punts and Naeshaun Montgomery or Chris Graves Jr. on kickoffs; safeties Santana Banner (56 snaps and nine tackles against Florida) and Kensley Louidor-Faustin (36 snaps and a team-high 3.5 tackles behind the line against Florida). Probable: edge rusher Jaden Jones, linebacker Bobby Washington Jr., cornerback Jahlil Florence and tight end Brett Norfleet. Not on the list: Simmons, Roberts, Lee, Olugbode, the kicker Craig, the punter Reus, Rodriguez, Hopkins. The conference puts out new lists Thursday and Friday evening and 90 minutes before kickoff. Every status is in our injury ledger for the week, both teams.
What it changes. No chip and not the call; a slice does not move either, and nothing here would. It is material to Monday's availability block, which had Craver at no update, Watkins out with no update, nothing on Ivy, Smith and Kitchen at "the SEC's Wednesday report is the first word" and no Green, Fowlkes, Banner or Louidor-Faustin, so the Game Plan carries a dated "Updated Oct 8" correction in place pointing here. Two of today's rungs have names on them now. Fowlkes is half the reason, with Reus, that Missouri's field position sits at the 96th percentile; if he sits, Lee returns punts and Montgomery or Graves kickoffs, and the one Missouri bar on the special-teams chip gets weaker, which only firms a chip already Texas A&M's. Green is the left tackle who has not allowed a pressure, hit or sack all season (Rock M Nation, Oct 6), and Banner and Louidor-Faustin are the two safeties who played 92 snaps between them against Florida, on a run defense whose stuff rate is Tuesday's whole case; three questionable starters there is the first crack in it, and the Walkthrough weighs it with Thursday's report. For A&M, Ivy's loss is the left-guard rotation Wednesday's page named, now Baugh and Tyler Thomas without him, and Craver at 50% is the volume target and the first-listed punt returner again. No one on the A&M side who matters to the goal line or the kicking game is listed. Nothing dated Wednesday from either coach's SEC teleconference could be read; Elko's Wednesday radio show is audio only.
What it changes. None of Monday's picks and not the score; a daily edition does not change those, and nothing here would. It does change Monday's injury block, which had no news on Craver, Watkins out with no news, nothing on Ivy, no official word yet on Smith and Kitchen, and no Green, Fowlkes, Banner or Louidor-Faustin, so Monday's page now carries a dated "Updated Oct 8" correction pointing here. Two of today's rows have names on them now. Fowlkes is half the reason, with Reus, that Missouri starts its drives so close to the other end; if he sits, Lee returns punts and Montgomery or Graves returns kickoffs, and the one thing Missouri had going for it on special teams gets weaker, which only firms a pick that was already A&M's. Green is the left tackle who has not let a rusher near his quarterback all season, and Banner and Louidor-Faustin are the two safeties who played 92 snaps between them against Florida, on a run defense that was Tuesday's whole argument for Missouri; three starters uncertain there is the first crack in it, and Friday's update weighs it with Thursday's list. For A&M, losing Ivy means the left guard spot is Baugh and Tyler Thomas without him, and Craver at 50% is the receiver A&M throws to most and its first-choice punt returner again. Nobody on the A&M side who matters at the goal line or in the kicking game is listed. Nothing either coach said on Wednesday's conference call could be read; Elko's Wednesday radio show is audio only.
Texas A&M: Marcel Reed, QB (43 carries for 170, two rushing touchdowns, from the 5 against Kentucky and the 1 against Arkansas, both on third down); Rueben Owens II, RB (70 for 291, the 2-yard touchdown against Arizona State; the kickoff returner since Bussey); Carsyn Baker, RB (29 for 101, three touchdowns, the two in the games we hold from the 2 against Kentucky and the 2 against Arkansas, and the stop at the Arkansas 1); KJ Edwards, RB (28 for 181, 6.5 a carry, the 20- and 3-yard touchdowns against Arkansas, 2 of 2 on third and short that night); Jamarion Morrow, RB (16 for 56, a touchdown); Isaiah Horton, WR (three touchdowns, the two in the games we hold from the 4 and the 13; one punt return); Mario Craver, WR (the punt returner); Micah Riley, TE (the 5-yard touchdown against Kentucky; the stats file lists him as Riley-Ducker); Tyler White, P; David Olano, PK; Asher Murray, PK; Colton Chmelar, PK; Shea Freibaum, LS. The defense inside its 20: Landon Rink, DT, and Dalton Brooks, S (the fourth-and-1 stop at the 3 against Arkansas; Brooks also has an interception); Marco Jones, DE, Julio Humphrey, CB, and Marcus Ratcliffe, S (the other three interceptions); Anto Saka, DE, DJ Sanders, DT, and TK Norman, WR (fumble recoveries the stats credit; Norman's was a muffed punt); Noah Mikhail, LB, and Ray Coney, LB; Tawfiq Byard, S. Missouri: Jamal Roberts, RB (113 for 606, six rushing touchdowns, runs of 77 and 80 against Florida); Xai'Shaun Edwards, RB (33 for 133, a touchdown); Austin Simmons, QB (13 touchdown passes, no interceptions); Donovan Olugbode, WR (six touchdowns), Cayden Lee, WR (four), Caleb Goodie Sr., WR, Shaun Terry II, WR, and Brett Norfleet, TE (one each); DaMarion Fowlkes, WR (the punt and kickoff returner, the 68-yard return touchdown; questionable); Cayden Lee, WR, Naeshaun Montgomery, WR (one kickoff return), and Chris Graves Jr., CB (the listed backups on returns); Blake Craig, PK; Brunno Reus, PK (the punter and the kickoff man); Oliver Robbins, PK (three kickoffs); Brett Le Blanc, LS. The defense inside its 20: Nicholas Rodriguez, LB (46 tackles, the team lead), Santana Banner, S (42; questionable), Kensley Louidor-Faustin, S (questionable), Robert Woodyard Jr., LB (32, an interception and a fumble recovery; questionable); Jahlil Florence, CB, Sione Laulea, CB, and Trajen Greco, S (the other interceptions); Jason Dowell, DT (the other fumble recovery); Daeden Hopkins, EDGE, Sterling Webb, DT, Donta Simpson, DT, and Jalen Marshall, DT, on the front that stuffs one run in four; Darris Smith, EDGE, and Langden Kitchen, EDGE, questionable, and Cayden Green, OL, the left tackle, questionable, per Wednesday's report above.
Texas A&M: quarterback Marcel Reed, with two rushing touchdowns, from the 5 against Kentucky and the 1 against Arkansas, both on third down; running back Rueben Owens II, who scored from the 2 against Arizona State and has returned kickoffs since Bussey was hurt; running back Carsyn Baker, with three touchdowns, two of them from the 2, and the one who was stopped at the Arkansas 1; running back KJ Edwards, who scored from 20 and 3 yards out against Arkansas and converted both of his third-and-short runs that night; running back Jamarion Morrow; receiver Isaiah Horton, with three touchdown catches and one punt return; Mario Craver, the punt returner; tight end Micah Riley, who caught a 5-yard touchdown against Kentucky; punter Tyler White; kickers David Olano, Asher Murray and Colton Chmelar; long snapper Shea Freibaum. On defense near its own goal: Landon Rink and Dalton Brooks, who made the fourth-down stop at the 3 against Arkansas (Brooks also has an interception); Marco Jones, Julio Humphrey and Marcus Ratcliffe, who have the other three interceptions; Anto Saka, DJ Sanders and TK Norman, who recovered fumbles (Norman's a muffed punt); linebackers Noah Mikhail and Ray Coney; safety Tawfiq Byard. Missouri: running back Jamal Roberts, with six rushing touchdowns and runs of 77 and 80 yards against Florida; running back Xai'Shaun Edwards, with one; quarterback Austin Simmons, with 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions; receivers Donovan Olugbode (six touchdown catches), Cayden Lee (four), Caleb Goodie Sr. and Shaun Terry II, and tight end Brett Norfleet (one each); DaMarion Fowlkes, the punt and kickoff returner with the 68-yard return touchdown, who is questionable; Cayden Lee, Naeshaun Montgomery and Chris Graves Jr., the listed backups on returns; kicker Blake Craig; Brunno Reus, the punter, who also kicks off; Oliver Robbins, who has kicked off three times; long snapper Brett Le Blanc. On defense near its own goal: linebacker Nicholas Rodriguez, who leads the team in tackles, safeties Santana Banner and Kensley Louidor-Faustin, both questionable, linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr., questionable, who has an interception and a fumble recovery; Jahlil Florence, Sione Laulea and Trajen Greco, who have the other interceptions; Jason Dowell, who recovered the other fumble; Daeden Hopkins, Sterling Webb, Donta Simpson and Jalen Marshall on the front that stops one run in four; and Darris Smith, Langden Kitchen and left tackle Cayden Green, all questionable on Wednesday's report above.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. A&M's offense outperforms its SP+ rating in the short field: 19 of 23 red-zone trips scored and 16 touchdowns, the 91st percentile at the goal line, eight touchdowns on 11 goal-to-go series in the games we hold. Its problem is the rung above, getting there, against a defense that lets drives inside its 40 less often than all but 13 in the country and stuffs one run in four, and the play-by-play says what a Missouri defense that has allowed two red-zone trips a game looks like once a drive arrives: nine of ten scored. Missouri's offense gets inside the 40 more often than almost anyone and then kicks: 13 touchdowns on 24 red-zone trips, six field goals, five empties, and a kicker at 8 of 12 with two blocked; the Aggie defense's best rungs are the finish, 28th in FBS at points per opportunity, and the goal-line proxy, 27th, and its worst, in the games we hold, is still the goal line itself, six touchdowns on eight series. The one structural mismatch the compressed field tests first is Missouri's field position against Aggie coverage: a punter nobody has returned, a returner who has scored, and a 96th-percentile starting spot, which is why the special-teams chip is slight and not full. Wednesday's report is above, with Fowlkes, Green and both starting safeties questionable and Craver at 50%; the Walkthrough reads tonight's. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Missouri at the line (w6-e2); Missouri, slight, with the backs (w6-e3); Texas A&M, slight, against the Tiger backs (w6-e7); Texas A&M, slight, at the Tiger line (w6-e8); Texas A&M, slight, on special teams and field position (w6-e11); Missouri, slight, on coaching and luck (w6-e12). The call stays Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23.
Our bottom line for today. A&M's offense is better than its overall numbers say once it gets close: 19 of 23 trips inside the 20 have produced points, 16 of them touchdowns, it is among the best in the country in short yardage, and it scored touchdowns on eight of the 11 times it had a first down inside the 10 in the games we hold. Its problem is the row above that, getting there, against a defense that keeps drives out of its 40 better than all but 13 in the country and stops one run in four, and the play-by-play says what that Missouri defense looks like once a drive does arrive: nine of ten trips scored. Missouri's offense gets inside the 40 more often than almost anyone and then kicks: 13 touchdowns on 24 trips inside the 20, six field goals, five empty trips, and a kicker who has missed four of 12, two of them blocked; A&M's defense is at its best at the finish, 28th in the country at points allowed per trip inside its 40, and in short yardage, 27th, and at its worst, in the games we hold, at the goal line itself, six touchdowns on eight series. The matchup this part of the game tests first is Missouri's field position against A&M's kick coverage: a punter nobody has returned, a return man who has scored, and a starting spot better than all but three teams in the country, which is why our special-teams pick for A&M is a slight edge and not a full one. Wednesday's injury list is above, with Fowlkes, Green and both starting safeties uncertain and Craver a coin flip; Friday's update reads tonight's. Monday's picks do not change: Missouri at the line of scrimmage, a slight Missouri edge against A&M's running backs, a slight A&M edge against Missouri's running backs, a slight A&M edge at Missouri's line, a slight A&M edge on special teams and field position, and a slight Missouri edge on coaching and luck. The score we picked stays Missouri 26, Texas A&M 23.
Updated Oct 8, before publication on the site, after the Layer 2 fact-check: two rank credits moved to Missouri's game notes (the Aggies' 93rd in red-zone scoring rate and third in net punting); White has eight punts inside the 20 by the official boxes, not the snapshot's seven; Louidor-Faustin's team-high 3.5 tackles for loss were against Florida; Missouri's flags have flown everywhere it has played, not just at Faurot Field; Olano's uniqueness line carries all three of the notes' conditions and his 72 straight extra points; the Aggie defense's short-yardage rung ties its finishing rung; Reus shares the credit for Missouri's field position with Fowlkes; two source credits added. Added from the check: Missouri's 35 points off turnovers and none allowed. Every status is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams.Updated Oct 8, after our fact-check and before this page went on the site: two rankings are Missouri's game notes', not A&M's; White has eight punts inside the 20 by the official box scores, not seven; Louidor-Faustin's 3.5 tackles behind the line were in the Florida game; Missouri's penalties have piled up everywhere it has played, not just at home; Olano's one-of-a-kind line now carries all three conditions and his 72 straight extra points; A&M's defense is as good in short yardage as it is at the finish; Reus shares the credit for Missouri's field position with Fowlkes; two source credits added. Added from the check: Missouri's 35 points off turnovers and none allowed. Every status is in our injury ledger for the week, both teams. Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week6: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware, through the Week 5 games; season, player and special-teams stats for both teams, with SP+ as published before the Week 5 games; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file spells a name differently the roster wins), the play-by-play of A&M's games against Arizona State, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas (data/2026/week2 to week5, postgame files: red-zone trips, goal-to-go series, short-yardage runs, kickoffs, punts, returns and turnovers), Missouri's five game boxes (data/2026/week6/missouri__game_boxes.json: turnovers and returns by game), Missouri's official season statistics as of Oct 6 (red-zone results both ways, the field-goal sequence and the two blocks, punting, kickoffs, returns, fumbles, the defensive chart), Texas A&M's official box scores for all five games (red-zone results both ways, kickoffs, punting, fumbles, points off turnovers), Missouri's Texas A&M week game notes (the specialists depth chart, the red-zone breakdowns, Reus's and Craig's lines, the national ranks) and Texas A&M's Missouri week game notes (Oct 5: the specialists depth chart, the red-zone totals, White's national rank, Olano's streaks), the SEC's Wednesday availability report via KBTX (Oct 7, 7:52 PM: both tables, Ivy's snaps, the 50% definition), TexAgs (Oct 7: Watkins not listed, Elko's "He should be fine," the conference's definitions), Missouri On SI (Oct 7, 7:41 PM: the Missouri names, the Florida snap counts, "in and out," the four names not mentioned Tuesday; Green's 67 snaps and Louidor-Faustin's 3.5 tackles for loss from its Florida snap-count piece, Oct 4), Aggies Wire via Yahoo (Oct 7, 8:23 PM) and Aggies Wire via Yahoo (Oct 8, 4:16 AM: Morrow and Watkins not listed), Texas A&M On SI via Yahoo (Oct 7, 5:29 PM: Morrow active and unused against Arkansas), KBTX's Monday grades (Oct 5: the PFF snap counts), Rock M Nation's Tiger Talk notes (Oct 6, 8:38 PM: Drinkwitz on Reus and the 11 AM kick; its midweek presser notes, Oct 6, 3:38 PM, for Green's pressure-free season and Hardy's ramp-up) and Texas A&M On SI via Yahoo (Oct 7: Elko's Monday line on the red zone). The sweep ran on fetch only (search was unavailable this morning); the SEC's own report page could not be rendered, so the list rests on five outlets that agree name for name; The Eagle, KOMU, ABC17, the Columbia Daily Tribune, the Kansas City Star's own site and 247Sports past its front page could not be read. Definitions, including points per scoring opportunity as the red-zone stand-in and power success as the goal-line proxy, in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's Thursday report is this evening; Friday's Walkthrough reads it.