The money downs, both ways, in full: the pass ladder for each offense against the pass defense it meets, protection against havoc, short yardage and the rush, Tuesday's sessions in Norman and Austin, and the bodies who decide it. Texas converts 50.0% of its third downs, the best number on Monday's table, and in the four games we hold play-by-play for it is 17 of 18 with three yards or less to go and 6 of 26 with seven or more; Oklahoma allows 23.1%, the best number on the Sooner side of Monday's table, and held Georgia to 3 of 12. Yesterday's sixteen rungs went sixteen to the defenses; today's fourteen go thirteen, and the one the defenses lose is the Sooner deep ball against the Texas secondary. The second tell, sacks allowed over Manning's first 25 dropbacks, is the sub-package story: the Sooner rush sits at the 91st percentile with 13 sacks, and the Texas protection that allowed ten, six at Tennessee, grades at the 6th percentile against the front seven. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them. The SEC's first availability report of the week comes out this evening at 7:10 PM CT; Thursday's edition carries it.
Third down is the play where you either get the yards or, most of the time, punt. Today we look at how well each team throws when it has to, how well each defense stops it, who blocks and who rushes, the short-yardage plays both teams keep in the bag, and what the coaches said on Tuesday. Texas converts half of its third downs, the best number on Monday's table, and in the four games we have play-by-play for it is 17 of 18 with three yards or less to go and 6 of 26 with seven or more; Oklahoma's defense allows fewer than one conversion in four, the best number on its side of Monday's table, and held Georgia to 3 of 12. Yesterday the defenses won all sixteen rows of our charts; today they win thirteen of fourteen, and the one they lose is Oklahoma's long-pass game against Texas's pass defense. Our second early sign, how often Manning is sacked on his first 25 passing plays, is the story of the blockers and rushers: Oklahoma's pass rush is among the best in the country with 13 sacks, and Texas's blockers, who have allowed ten, six of them at Tennessee, let front-line rushers through more often than all but eight teams in the country. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them. The conference's official injury list comes out this evening at 7:10 PM; Thursday's edition carries it.
Read it top to bottom: whether Texas's throws work at all (efficiency, then value per throw), whether they work when everyone in the stadium knows a throw is coming (the money downs: second and long, third and fourth and five or more, three rungs), whether the line keeps the rush off Manning (protection against havoc, all plays), and whether anything goes over the top. Oklahoma wins all seven rungs, four of them by 40 or more, and the closest is the one Texas is best at: money-down success, 72 against 76. Texas converts 36.0% of its passing-down plays (38th of 138), the one rung of its passing game above the 60th percentile, and Oklahoma allows 25.0% (33rd); on the rung just below it, value per play on those downs, the gap opens to 43 against 90, because Oklahoma's defense has allowed negative value on passing downs for the season (−0.04 a play, 14th in FBS). The protection rung is the widest on the page, 15 against 91, and the honest split on it runs the opposite way from the one the Aggie page carried this morning: the havoc Texas allows comes from the front. Texas allows front-seven havoc on 13.0% of plays, the 6th percentile, 130th of 138, and defensive-back havoc on 4.1%, the 77th; Oklahoma's front seven makes havoc on 14.5% of plays (91st, 13th in FBS) and its secondary on 7.0% (69th, Peyton Bowen's four pass breakups the most on the team). The rung at the bottom, big-pass danger, is Monday's Even: Texas at the 49th against a Sooner coverage that allows explosive passes at the 96th, 1.28 a play, sixth-lowest in the country, with the 2025 bar the reason it is not Oklahoma's. Then the play-by-play, which is the headline. In the four games we hold, Texas has converted 30 of 60 third downs, 15 of 23 when it ran and 15 of 37 when it threw (sacks counted as throws). By distance: 17 of 18 at one to three yards (15 of 15 on runs), 7 of 16 at four to six (0 of 2 on runs, 7 of 14 on throws), 6 of 26 at seven or more (0 of 6 on runs, 6 of 20 on throws), and of those 26, 4 of 13 at seven to nine and 2 of 13 at ten or more, both in the opener (Wingo's 45-yard touchdown on third and 15, Smothers for 13 on third and 12). The eight third-down runs at four or more yards to go all failed, and six of the eight were Manning keeping it, four of them at Tennessee at 12, 17, 18 and 20 to go. By game, 11 of 15, 9 of 16, 7 of 17 and 3 of 12 at Neyland, where nine of the 12 came at seven or more and one converted (Wingo for 18 on third and 8). Manning's own value per play is best on third down (+0.54) and worst on first (−0.10), with +0.40 on passing downs; Cam Coleman has been thrown to five times on third down and converted four, Wingo six and three. Four of Texas's nine completions of 20 or more came on passing downs (Wingo's 45 and Coleman's 20 against Texas State, Jermaine Bishop Jr.'s 29 on second and 13 and Coleman's 30 on second and 10 at Tennessee). The other way, Oklahoma's defense has allowed 12 of 52 third downs, 23.1%: UTEP 2 of 13, Michigan 4 of 13, New Mexico 3 of 14, Georgia 3 of 12, so the best offense it has met converted a quarter. Monday's chips stand: Oklahoma on Manning's passing game against the secondary (w6-e1, 51 against 96 at value), Oklahoma in the pocket (w6-e4, built from the Sooner rush, below), Even on the deep game (w6-e5, the first tell the referee).
Read it top to bottom: whether Texas's passes work at all, whether they work on the downs where everyone knows a pass is coming (three rows for those), whether the blockers keep rushers away from quarterback Arch Manning, and whether Texas ever completes a long one. Oklahoma wins all seven rows, four of them by a wide margin, and the closest is the one Texas is best at: on the must-pass downs, Texas's plays work more often than about 72 of every 100 teams', the one row of its passing game that is clearly above average, and Oklahoma's defense stops those plays about as well. On the row just below it, how much each of those plays gains, the gap opens wide, because Oklahoma's defense has, on average, pushed offenses backward on those downs this season, one of the fourteen best marks in the country. The blocking row is the widest on the page, and the honest detail about it runs the opposite way from the one on this morning's Aggie page: the damage Texas allows comes from the front. Texas's blockers let front-line rushers into the backfield more often than all but eight teams in the country, while the damage from the secondary, Manning's three interceptions and the passes knocked down, has been below average; Oklahoma's front seven gets into the backfield at one of the thirteen highest rates anywhere, and its defensive backs are good too (Peyton Bowen has knocked down four passes, the most on the team). The bottom row, long passes, is Monday's toss-up: Texas is about average at them, Oklahoma's defense has allowed fewer than almost anyone, and last year's numbers are the reason we did not give Oklahoma the edge. Then the play-by-play, which is the story. In the four games we have, Texas converted 30 of 60 third downs: 15 of 23 when it ran, 15 of 37 when it threw (counting sacks as throws). By distance: 17 of 18 with one to three yards to go (15 of 15 on runs), 7 of 16 with four to six (0 of 2 on runs, 7 of 14 on throws), 6 of 26 with seven or more (0 of 6 on runs, 6 of 20 on throws), and of those 26, 4 of 13 with seven to nine to go and 2 of 13 with ten or more, both in the opener (Wingo's 45-yard touchdown on third-and-15, Smothers for 13 on third-and-12). All eight third-down runs with four or more to go failed, and six of the eight were Manning keeping it himself, four of them at Tennessee needing 12, 17, 18 and 20 yards. By game, 11 of 15, 9 of 16, 7 of 17 and 3 of 12 at Tennessee, where nine of the 12 came with seven or more to go and one converted (Wingo for 18 on third-and-8). Third down is Manning's best down by our numbers and first down his worst; Cam Coleman has been thrown to five times on third down and converted four, Wingo six and three. Four of Texas's nine completions of 20 yards or more came on must-pass downs (Wingo's 45 and Coleman's 20 against Texas State, Jermaine Bishop Jr.'s 29 on second-and-13 and Coleman's 30 on second-and-10 at Tennessee). Going the other way, Oklahoma's defense has allowed 12 of 52 third downs, 23.1%: UTEP 2 of 13, Michigan 4 of 13, New Mexico 3 of 14, Georgia 3 of 12, so the best offense it has played converted one in four. Monday's picks stand: an Oklahoma edge for its pass defense against Manning, an Oklahoma edge for its pass rush against Texas's blockers (built from that rush, below), and a toss-up on long passes, which the first early sign settles.
The mirror, and the one rung on the page a defense loses. Texas wins six of seven: the coverage allows pass success at the 91st percentile (32.5%, 13th in FBS) and passing value at the 85th (−0.02 a play, 21st) against a Sooner passing game at the 38th and 56th, and Mateer is 72 of 109 for 883, 8.1 an attempt, eight touchdowns, four interceptions. That is Monday's chip w6-e6, built from the quarterback by the Week 5 lesson, and the money-down rungs say where his day goes wrong: Oklahoma's value per play on passing downs is +0.08, the 17th percentile, 114th of 138, and its explosiveness on them the 15th (117th); Texas allows success on those downs at the 84th (23.3%, 22nd in FBS). Mateer's own figures by down say the same thing from inside the huddle: +0.42 a play on second down, his best, +0.11 on third, +0.08 on first; the team's passing-downs value (+0.08) is lower than his own (+0.23) because the handoffs on those downs lose value. The rung Oklahoma wins is the deep game, 80 against 70: Oklahoma's explosiveness on passing plays sits at the 80th (1.73 a play, 27th in FBS) against a Texas coverage that allows it at the 70th (1.46, 42nd), with Isaiah Sategna III at 20 catches for 267 and a 53-yarder and Rocky Beers at 18 for 255 and a 43, and that ten-point rung is Monday's Even on w6-e10. Now the Texas side of the money downs in the play-by-play. In the four games we hold, the Texas defense has allowed 19 of 55 third downs in the official boxes: Texas State 8 of 14, Ohio State 6 of 14, UTSA 1 of 11, Tennessee 4 of 16 (our count of the play-by-play has one more Volunteer third down than the box, 4 of 17, so the splits below are out of 56). By distance: 7 of 12 at one to three, 7 of 12 at four to six, and 5 of 32 at seven or more, where offenses threw 24 times and converted three, all of them Ohio State's Julian Sayin (19 yards on third and 10, 19 on third and 13, 43 to Jeremiah Smith on third and 10); the other two long conversions were Tennessee's quarterback running for 15 on third and 9 and 16 on third and 12. At seven to nine yards to go, 1 of 11. Of the eight completions of 20 or more the defense has allowed, five came on passing downs (Texas State's 22 on third and 6 and 41 on second and 12; Ohio State's 43 on second and 8, 43 on third and 10 and 24 on second and 10); UTSA had none, and Tennessee's one came on first and 10. The rush rung is 88 against 30, Texas making havoc on 20.6% of plays (16th in FBS; front-seven havoc at the 89th) against a Sooner protection that allows front-seven havoc at the 11th percentile (11.8%, 123rd of 138): Texas has 15 sacks, nine on standard downs and six on passing downs, six of them on third down (2, 2, 1 and 10 by game), Oklahoma has allowed eight (1, 3, 1 and 3), and that is chip w6-e9, with the third tell, Oklahoma's first 12 third downs, counting the downs where it matters. Oklahoma's own third-down record says why the tell is set where it is: 18 of 53 for the season, 34.0%, but 13 of 26 at home against UTEP and New Mexico and 5 of 27 on the road against Michigan (3 of 13) and Georgia (2 of 14), the two defenses on its schedule that resemble this one. Monday's chips stand: Texas on Mateer against the coverage (w6-e6), Texas on the rush against the Sooner protection (w6-e9), Even on Sategna, Beers and the deep game (w6-e10).
The same ladder the other way, and the one row on the page a defense loses. Texas wins six of seven: its pass defense has been among the best in the country at stopping passes from working and at keeping them from gaining much, Oklahoma's passing game has been below average at the first and a little above average at the second, and John Mateer has completed 72 of 109 passes for 883 yards, 8.1 a throw, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. That is Monday's pick on this matchup, built from how good the quarterback is, which was the lesson from last week, and the must-pass rows show where his day goes wrong: on those downs Oklahoma gains less per play than all but 24 teams in the country and almost never makes a big play, and Texas's defense stops those plays more often than all but 21 teams. Mateer's own numbers by down say the same thing from inside the huddle: second down is his best, third and first are his worst, and Oklahoma's team number on the must-pass downs is lower than his own because the handoffs on those downs lose ground. The row Oklahoma wins is the long pass: Oklahoma completes big passes more often than most teams, Texas's defense allows them a little less often than most, and Isaiah Sategna III (20 catches, 267 yards, a 53-yarder) and Rocky Beers (18 catches, 255 yards, a 43-yarder) are the reasons; that narrow row is Monday's toss-up. Now Texas's defense on third down in the play-by-play. In the four games we have, it has allowed 19 of 55 third downs in the official box scores: Texas State 8 of 14, Ohio State 6 of 14, UTSA 1 of 11, Tennessee 4 of 16 (our count of the play-by-play has one more Tennessee third down than the box, 4 of 17, so the splits below are out of 56). By distance: 7 of 12 with one to three to go, 7 of 12 with four to six, and 5 of 32 with seven or more, where offenses threw 24 times and converted three, all of them Ohio State's Julian Sayin (19 yards on third-and-10, 19 on third-and-13, 43 to Jeremiah Smith on third-and-10); the other two long conversions were Tennessee's quarterback running for 15 on third-and-9 and 16 on third-and-12. With seven to nine to go, offenses are 1 of 11. Of the eight completions of 20 yards or more the defense has allowed, five came on must-pass downs (Texas State's 22 on third-and-6 and 41 on second-and-12; Ohio State's 43 on second-and-8, 43 on third-and-10 and 24 on second-and-10); UTSA had none, and Tennessee's one came on first-and-10. The pass-rush row is a big Texas edge: its defense gets into the backfield at one of the sixteen highest rates in the country, and Oklahoma's blockers let front-line rushers through more often than all but fifteen teams. Texas has 15 sacks, nine on first or second down with ordinary distances and six on must-pass downs, six of them on third down (2, 2, 1 and 10 by game); Oklahoma has allowed eight (1, 3, 1 and 3); that is Monday's pick on the rush, and our third early sign, how many of Oklahoma's first 12 third downs it converts, counts the downs where it matters most. Oklahoma's own third-down record says why we set the sign where we did: it has converted 18 of 53 for the season, about one in three, but 13 of 26 at home against UTEP and New Mexico and only 5 of 27 on the road against Michigan (3 of 13) and Georgia (2 of 14), the two defenses on its schedule most like this one. Monday's picks stand: a Texas edge for its pass defense against Mateer, a Texas edge for its pass rush against Oklahoma's blockers, and a toss-up on Oklahoma's long-pass game against Texas's secondary.
Texas's one rung on the ground meets a front at the 86th percentile in short yardage, 19th in FBS; Oklahoma's own short yardage is last in the country. Power success, the share of third- and fourth-and-two-or-less runs that convert, is the one running number Texas holds: 77.8% (64th percentile), and by our count of the play-by-play 14 of 15 such runs have converted, with every one of the 15 third-down runs at three yards or less converting, ten of them Smothers's, three Brown's, two Cooper's, and two of them touchdowns (Brown's 13-yarder on third and 2 against Texas State, Smothers's 1-yarder on third and 1 against Ohio State); the one short-yardage run that failed was Wingo's on fourth and 1 against Ohio State, a 10-yard loss. The front it meets allows 58.3% (86th, 19th in FBS; better than Ohio State's, UTSA's and Tennessee's, with Texas State's 55.0% the one lower figure Texas has met), a Sooner defense that stuffs runs at only the 46th percentile (18.5%) but closes the short ones. The other way is the strangest line on Monday's board: Oklahoma converts 33.3% of its own short-yardage runs, the 0th percentile, last of 138, and is stuffed at or behind the line on 25.0% of its carries (8th), against a Texas front that allows 70.0% in power situations (55th; 7 of 11 by our count, Tennessee 3 of 4). Fourth down: Texas is 4 of 7 for the season, Oklahoma 1 of 4; the Texas defense has allowed 3 of 8, Oklahoma's 4 of 6. The third-and-short that matters most for the second tell is the one Texas does not run: at four to six yards to go, Texas has run twice and failed both, and has thrown 14 times and converted seven, with three of the four third-down sacks (Ohio State on third and 4, UTSA and Tennessee on third and 5) coming in that band. At three or less, nobody has to protect; at four or more, somebody does.
Texas's one good running number meets a defense that stops short-yardage runs better than all but 18 teams in the country; Oklahoma's own short-yardage running is last in the country. On third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, Texas's runs convert about 78% of the time, a little better than average, and by our count of the play-by-play 14 of 15 such runs have picked up the first down, with every one of its 15 third-down runs needing three yards or less converting, ten of them by Hollywood Smothers, three by Raleek Brown, two by Derrek Cooper, and two of them touchdowns (Brown's 13-yarder on third-and-2 against Texas State, Smothers's 1-yarder on third-and-1 against Ohio State); the one short-yardage run that failed was Ryan Wingo's on fourth-and-1 against Ohio State, a 10-yard loss. The defense it meets allows 58% on those plays, better than all but 18 teams in the country (better than Ohio State, UTSA and Tennessee; Texas State, at 55%, is the one defense Texas has met that was stingier), even though it is only average at stopping runs behind the line generally. Going the other way is the strangest line on Monday's board: Oklahoma converts only a third of its own short-yardage runs, last of 138 teams, and gets stopped at or behind the line on one carry in four, against a Texas defense that is about average at those plays (it has allowed 7 of 11 by our count, Tennessee 3 of 4). On fourth down, Texas has converted 4 of 7 tries this season, Oklahoma 1 of 4; Texas's defense has allowed 3 of 8, Oklahoma's 4 of 6. The short third down that matters most for our second early sign is the one Texas does not run: with four to six yards to go, Texas has run twice and failed both, and has thrown 14 times and converted seven, with three of its four third-down sacks (against Ohio State on third-and-4, against UTSA and Tennessee on third-and-5) coming there. Needing three or less, nobody has to block for long; needing four or more, somebody does.
The second tell, in full: a front-seven rush at the 91st percentile against a protection at the 6th. Oklahoma's front-seven havoc sits at the 91st percentile (14.5% of plays, 13th in FBS) with 13 sacks in four games: Adepoju Adebawore 2.5, Owen Heinecke 2 (questionable), Reggie Powers III 2 with four tackles for loss, Dane Bathurst, Jacobe Johnson, Peyton Bowen and Kip Lewis one each, David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Bishop Thomas, Jake Kreul and James Carrington a half; by game, four against UTEP, two at Michigan, six against New Mexico, one at Georgia; five hurries in the boxes. The 13 are spread across 12 players, and four of them belong to defensive backs, which is a blitzing defense by its stat line. Texas allows front-seven havoc at the 6th percentile (13.0%, 130th of 138) and has allowed ten sacks, one against Texas State, two against Ohio State, one against UTSA and six at Tennessee; six of the ten came on standard downs, where the rush is not supposed to be coming, and four on third down (third and 4, third and 5, third and 5, third and 9). The line that allowed them is the same five that will start Saturday, per the game notes: Goosby, Sikorski, Robertson, Baker, Siani. The second tell counts sacks over Manning's first 25 dropbacks, two or fewer saying Knoxville was the Volunteer front, four saying protection is the October problem. The other side is the Texas rush against a shuffled Sooner line, and it is the strength the bye report named: front-seven havoc at the 89th percentile (14.1%, 15th in FBS), 15 sacks (Colin Simmons 7 with 8.5 tackles for loss, Maraad Watson 2, Rasheem Biles, Zina Umeozulu, Hero Kanu, Lance Jackson and Alex January one each, Samari Matthews and Smith Orogbo a half), 18 hurries in the boxes (Kanu and Justin Cryer three each), ten sacks at Tennessee, five of them Simmons's. Oklahoma allows front-seven havoc at the 11th percentile (123rd of 138) and has given up eight sacks with three starting pairings in four games and Fasusi out since the opener; Oklahoma has lost six fumbles, two of them Mateer's at Georgia, one on a strip-sack. The third tell counts Oklahoma's first 12 third downs, and this panel is why five of them matter more than the other seven.
Our second early sign, in full: one of the best front-line pass rushes in the country against blockers who let it through more than almost anyone. Oklahoma's front seven gets into the backfield at one of the thirteen highest rates in the country, with 13 sacks in four games: Adepoju Adebawore has 2.5, Owen Heinecke 2 (questionable), Reggie Powers III 2, Dane Bathurst, Jacobe Johnson, Peyton Bowen and Kip Lewis one each, and David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Bishop Thomas, Jake Kreul and James Carrington half each; by game, four, two, six and one; five hurries in the box scores. The 13 sacks are spread across 12 players, and four of them belong to defensive backs, which tells you this is a defense that sends extra rushers. Texas's blockers let front-line rushers through more often than all but eight teams in the country and have allowed ten sacks: one against Texas State, two against Ohio State, one against UTSA and six at Tennessee; six of the ten came on standard downs, first and second down with ordinary distances and third-and-4, where the rush is not supposed to be coming, and four on third down. The five blockers who allowed them are the five who will start Saturday, per the team's game notes: Trevor Goosby, Dylan Sikorski, Connor Robertson, Brandon Baker and Melvin Siani. The second sign counts how many times Manning is sacked on his first 25 passing plays: two or fewer says Tennessee's rush was the exception, four says pass blocking is October's problem. The other side is Texas's rush against an Oklahoma line that keeps changing, and it is the strength last week's report named: Texas's front gets into the backfield at one of the fifteen highest rates in the country, with 15 sacks (Colin Simmons 7, Maraad Watson 2, Rasheem Biles, Zina Umeozulu, Hero Kanu, Lance Jackson and Alex January one each, Samari Matthews and Smith Orogbo half each) and 18 hurries, ten of the sacks at Tennessee, five of them Simmons's. Oklahoma's blockers let front-line rushers through more often than all but fifteen teams and have allowed eight sacks with three different starting groups in four games and left tackle Michael Fasusi out since the opener; Mateer lost two fumbles at Georgia, one of them on a sack. Our third early sign counts how many of Oklahoma's first 12 third downs it converts, and this box is why the long ones matter more than the short ones.
Smothers, Townsend and Terry first. Nothing dated Tuesday changed a Texas status. The only Tuesday lines with a Texas player's name in them were a reporter's phrase at CBS Sports (Smothers and Townsend "are hopeful to return") and the two Oklahoma coaches' praise of Manning and Simmons: On Texas Football posted a Tuesday practice health note at 11:50 AM that sits behind its paywall and was not read, and the Texas player sessions that the beat usually carries by Tuesday night did not surface in a source the sweep could open (Burnt Orange Nation, Inside Texas and the Statesman all refused the fetch). Hollywood Smothers · RB · Back at practice, no ruling: Hook'em Headlines (Oct 6, 5:00 AM CT) restated Monday, with Sarkisian "continuing his refusal to share injury updates beyond what he puts in the SEC-mandated availability reports," and had him "nursing a reported lower-leg injury suffered in practice"; Sept 28's "fine in a couple weeks when we play OU" is still the last word with his name in it. Nick Townsend · TE · Back at practice, no ruling, "healing up from a knee injury" in the same piece. Justus Terry · DL · Out, no update, "recovering from a toe injury"; one game played. Cam Coleman · WR · Probable, no update: four starts in four, not mentioned; Sept 28's "nothing serious" stands. Jordan Coleman · OL · Out, no update, Xavier Filsaime · DB · Out, no update and Cole Hutson · OL · Eligibility pending, no update, as Tuesday's edition left them. Colin Simmons · EDGE · Available, and the Texas name Oklahoma's offensive coordinator kept coming back to Tuesday was his. Ben Arbuckle, to The Oklahoman: "Everybody knows No. 1, Colin Simmons, right," "Unreal talent, plays his butt off, extremely twitchy, can definitely be a game changer, right?" and "You gotta be aware of where he's at," and on the unit, to Sooners On SI: "The Texas pass rush, they're special, they're awesome. They do an unreal job. They are so talented." The five linemen, Cooper and the rest are where Tuesday's edition left them. The SEC's first report is tonight at 7:10 PM CT; Thursday's edition carries it.
Smothers, Townsend and Terry first. Nothing dated Tuesday changed a Texas player's status. The only Tuesday lines with a Texas player's name in them were a reporter's phrase at CBS Sports (Smothers and Townsend "are hopeful to return") and the two Oklahoma coaches' praise of Manning and Simmons: On Texas Football posted a Tuesday practice health note at 11:50 AM that sits behind its paywall and was not read, and the Texas player interviews the beat usually carries by Tuesday night did not appear in any source we could open (Burnt Orange Nation, Inside Texas and the Statesman all refused the fetch). Hollywood Smothers · RB · Back at practice, no ruling: Hook'em Headlines (Oct 6, 5:00 AM CT) restated Monday, with Sarkisian "continuing his refusal to share injury updates beyond what he puts in the SEC-mandated availability reports," and described Smothers as "nursing a reported lower-leg injury suffered in practice"; the last thing Sarkisian said with his name in it was Sept 28, "fine in a couple weeks when we play OU." Nick Townsend · TE · Back at practice, no ruling, "healing up from a knee injury" in the same piece. Justus Terry · DL · Out, no update, "recovering from a toe injury"; he has played only the opener. Cam Coleman · WR · Probable, no update: he has started every game and was not mentioned; "nothing serious" from Sept 28 still stands. Jordan Coleman · OL · Out, no update, Xavier Filsaime · DB · Out, no update and Cole Hutson · OL · Eligibility pending, no update, as Tuesday's edition left them. Colin Simmons · EDGE · Available, and the Texas name Oklahoma's offensive coordinator kept coming back to Tuesday was his. Ben Arbuckle told The Oklahoman, "Everybody knows No. 1, Colin Simmons, right," "Unreal talent, plays his butt off, extremely twitchy, can definitely be a game changer, right?" and "You gotta be aware of where he's at," and on the unit as a whole, to Sooners On SI: "The Texas pass rush, they're special, they're awesome. They do an unreal job. They are so talented." The five blockers, Derrek Cooper and everyone else are where Tuesday's edition left them. The conference's first official injury list comes out tonight at 7:10 PM; Thursday's edition carries it.
Oklahoma. Venables held his coach's show Monday night and his weekly session Tuesday morning, and no injury word from either reached a source the sweep could read beyond one sentence. Monday night, after practice, per AtoZ Sports: "We might have several guys available that we didn't have last game, but you won't know until Wednesday"; The Oklahoman has him declining injuries on that coach's show, "referring to Wednesday's first availability report." Tuesday's press conference, as OU Daily, The Oklahoman and Sooners Wire carried it, was the line, Mateer and Manning, with no player's status in it. Six Sooners were ruled out before Georgia, and every one of them is where the Sept 26 report left him: Michael Fasusi · OL · Out, no update (The Oklahoman's Tuesday line piece: "It'd certainly help Bedenbaugh's group Saturday against No. 1 Texas if Fasusi could return from injury this week," the reporter's words, with no answer from Venables; CBS Sports, also Tuesday, had him "suited up against Georgia but status unclear for Saturday"), Trell Harris · WR · Out, no update, out "for the foreseeable future" per Venables as Sooners On SI paraphrased him, Cole Sullivan · LB · Out, no update, Taylor Heim · LB · Out, no update, Michael Boganowski · DB · Out, no update and Jer'Michael Carter · WR · Out, no update. Owen Heinecke · LB · Questionable, no update (a hamstring strain, per Venables after the Georgia game), Jacobe Johnson · DB · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown and Mackenzie Alleyne · WR · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown: nothing dated this week with a name on it; "several guys" is the only word. David Stone · DL · Available, questionable before Georgia and played, and after Monday's practice: "I feel good, man. The bye week did justice for me, so I'm ready," and "literally two weeks ago I didn't know if I was going to play this sport again." Kip Lewis · LB · Available, probable before Georgia and played. John Mateer · QB · Available, the starter, Monday night: "We're ready to go. ... Last year, it was what it was. It's taught me a lot, but I'm standing here and ready to play this week"; Venables Tuesday: "his best football has been really good, and we've got to help him play a little more consistently." The line, which is the panel above: Venables on Tuesday, "Way too many guys are coming and going at that position group. We need continuity and consistency in order to develop that group into what we want," and, asked for the unit's specific problems, "It's a long list"; no starting five named. The last charted lineup detail is the Georgia game's right-guard rotation, Heath Ozaeta · OL · Available 42 snaps, Noah Best · OL · Available 16, Peyton Joseph · OL · Available 14 (247Sports), with Ryan Fodje · OL · Available three games at left tackle in Fasusi's place and E'Marion Harris · OL · Available at right tackle, where Sooners On SI's Tuesday piece says he has "struggled." Fodje, Monday: "We have the best defensive line in the country and I feel like these guys, like we are not going to see anybody better than (our guys)." Pierre-Louis, Maikkula, the backs and the receivers are where Tuesday's edition left them.
Oklahoma. Oklahoma's coach, Brent Venables, held his radio show Monday night and his weekly press conference Tuesday morning, and only one sentence about injuries reached a source we could read. Monday night, after practice, he said: "We might have several guys available that we didn't have last game, but you won't know until Wednesday"; The Oklahoman reports he declined to discuss injuries on that show and pointed to Wednesday's official list. Tuesday's press conference, as the Oklahoma papers carried it, was about the blockers, Mateer and Manning, with no player's status in it. Six Oklahoma players were ruled out before the Georgia game, and every one of them is still where that list left him: Michael Fasusi · OL · Out, no update (The Oklahoman's Tuesday story on the blockers said it would certainly help if he could return this week, the reporter's words, with no answer from Venables; CBS Sports, also Tuesday, said he dressed for the Georgia game but his status for Saturday is unclear), Trell Harris · WR · Out, no update, out "for the foreseeable future" according to Venables as the Oklahoma beat reported it, Cole Sullivan · LB · Out, no update, Taylor Heim · LB · Out, no update, Michael Boganowski · DB · Out, no update and Jer'Michael Carter · WR · Out, no update. Owen Heinecke · LB · Questionable, no update (a hamstring strain, Venables said after the Georgia game), Jacobe Johnson · DB · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown and Mackenzie Alleyne · WR · Hurt at Georgia, severity unknown: nothing this week with a name on it; "several guys" is the only word. David Stone · DL · Available, who was questionable before Georgia and played, said after Monday's practice: "I feel good, man. The bye week did justice for me, so I'm ready," and "literally two weeks ago I didn't know if I was going to play this sport again." Kip Lewis · LB · Available, probable before Georgia and played. John Mateer · QB · Available, the starter, Monday night: "We're ready to go. ... Last year, it was what it was. It's taught me a lot, but I'm standing here and ready to play this week"; Venables Tuesday: "his best football has been really good, and we've got to help him play a little more consistently." The blockers, who are the box above: Venables said Tuesday, "Way too many guys are coming and going at that position group. We need continuity and consistency in order to develop that group into what we want," and, asked for the unit's specific problems, "It's a long list"; he did not name a starting five. The last detail anyone charted is who played right guard against Georgia: Heath Ozaeta · OL · Available 42 plays, Noah Best · OL · Available 16, Peyton Joseph · OL · Available 14, with Ryan Fodje · OL · Available three games at left tackle in Fasusi's place and E'Marion Harris · OL · Available at right tackle, where the Oklahoma beat says he has "struggled." Fodje, Monday: "We have the best defensive line in the country and I feel like these guys, like we are not going to see anybody better than (our guys)." Everyone else on the Oklahoma side is where Tuesday's edition left them.
What it changes. No chip, no tell and not the call. Two corrections to Monday's page. The first, caught by this build while sourcing the key bodies: chip w6-e1 said the Sooner secondary had "made four interceptions in four games." Four is the number Mateer has thrown; Oklahoma's defense has one (Omarion Robinson's), and has allowed one touchdown pass, per the committed player file, ESPN's team page and cfbstats. Corrected in place, in both voices, with a dated note. The chip rests on the percentiles (51 against 96) and does not move. The second, caught by the fact-check pass on this page: Monday's call box said Texas "has not converted a third-and-long all season," on Burnt Orange Nation's 0 for 9; by our count of the play-by-play Texas is 6 of 26 at seven or more (2 of 13 at ten or more, both in the opener, and 1 of 9 at Tennessee), and Burnt Orange Nation's split cannot be reproduced from the play-by-play. Corrected in place with dated notes in the call box, the bottom line, the keys and the week map; the call does not move. The Game Plan's availability block was not wrong anywhere; it now carries a dated Oct 7 pointer to this page. Terry's status is still the question tonight's report answers first on the Texas side, and Venables's "several guys" is the one on the Oklahoma side.
What it changes. None of Monday's picks, and not the score. Two corrections to Monday's page. The first, caught by this build while checking the players: Monday's note on Oklahoma's pass defense said it had intercepted four passes this season. Four is how many Mateer has thrown; Oklahoma's defense has one (Omarion Robinson's), and has allowed one touchdown pass. Fixed in place, in both voices, with a dated note; the pick does not change. The second, caught by the fact-check pass on this page: Monday's page said Texas had not converted a single long third down all season, on Burnt Orange Nation's count of none in nine; by our count of every play, Texas has converted 6 of 26 needing seven or more yards (2 of 13 needing ten or more, both in the opener, and 1 of 9 at Tennessee), and Burnt Orange Nation's split cannot be reproduced from the play-by-play. Fixed in place with dated notes; the score does not change. Nothing in Monday's injury list was wrong; it now points here. Whether Justus Terry plays is still the first thing tonight's list answers on the Texas side, and which of Venables's "several guys" come back is the first thing on Oklahoma's.
Texas: Arch Manning, QB (74 of 116 for 865, 7.5 an attempt, seven touchdowns, three interceptions; third down his best down at +0.54 a play and first his worst at −0.10, passes and runs together; +0.40 on passing downs). Ryan Wingo, WR (19 catches for 239, two scores, a long of 45; +1.52 a play on third down and +1.06 on passing downs; six third-down targets, three converted); Cam Coleman, WR (11 for 194, 17.6 a catch, four touchdowns, a long of 44; +2.10 on third down and +1.60 on passing downs, the best money-down figures on the roster among players with five or more such plays; five third-down targets, four converted; probable); Emmett Mosley V, WR (12 for 173, a long of 43; +1.10 on third down); Jermaine Bishop Jr., WR (six for 81, the 29-yarder on second and 13 at Tennessee); Sterling Berkhalter, WR (three for 34, two third-down conversions on two targets, both from Karle Lacey Jr.); Hollywood Smothers, RB (nine catches for 71; +0.89 on third down over 15 plays, the most third-down work of any back, and ten of the 15 short third-down runs that all converted are his; listed as Daylan Smothers in the stats file; back at practice, no ruling); Raleek Brown, RB (nine catches for 30; +0.87 on third down; three of the 15 short third-down runs are his); Derrek Cooper, RB; Emaree Winston, TE (six for 70, a long of 22; two third-down targets, both incomplete) and Spencer Shannon, TE, with Nick Townsend, TE, back at practice. The line, the same five in all four games per the game notes: Trevor Goosby, OL, Dylan Sikorski, OL, Connor Robertson, OL, Brandon Baker, OL, Melvin Siani, OL. The rush: Colin Simmons, EDGE (seven sacks, 8.5 for loss, two hurries), Maraad Watson, DL (two sacks), Hero Kanu, DL (a sack, 3.5 for loss, three hurries), Rasheem Biles, LB (a sack, 2.5 for loss, two hurries, 30 tackles, the team lead, two interceptions), Zina Umeozulu, EDGE (a sack, two for loss, two hurries), Lance Jackson, EDGE (a sack), Alex January, DL (a sack, two breakups), Justin Cryer, LB (three hurries, 23 tackles), Ian Geffrard, DL (two hurries), Samari Matthews, DB, and Smith Orogbo, EDGE (half a sack each). In coverage: Graceson Littleton, DB (three breakups, the team lead, an interception), Jelani McDonald, DB (26 tackles), Kade Phillips, DB (19), Derek Williams Jr., DB (two breakups), Bo Mascoe, DB, Kobe Black, DB. Oklahoma: John Mateer, QB (72 of 109 for 883, 8.1 an attempt, eight touchdowns, four interceptions; +0.42 a play on second down, +0.11 on third, +0.08 on first; +0.23 on passing downs). Isaiah Sategna III, WR (20 for 267, 13.4 a catch, two scores, a long of 53; +1.13 on passing downs, +0.18 on third down); Rocky Beers, TE (18 for 255, 14.2, two scores, a long of 43; +1.19 on third down, +0.92 on passing downs, the money-down target); Hayden Hansen, TE (four for 64, a score); Parker Livingstone, WR (six for 51); Elijah Thomas, WR (four for 38); Mackenzie Alleyne, WR (four for 40, a score; hurt at Georgia); Trell Harris, WR (six for 104, 17.3; out); Lloyd Avant, RB (six catches for 31; +0.80 on third down on a handful of plays). The line: Jake Maikkula, OL, at center, Eddy Pierre-Louis, OL, Noah Best, OL, Heath Ozaeta, OL, Ryan Fodje, OL, Peyton Joseph, OL, with Michael Fasusi, OL, out. The rush: Adepoju Adebawore, DL (2.5 sacks), Owen Heinecke, LB (two sacks, three for loss, 28 tackles, the team lead; questionable), Reggie Powers III, DB (two sacks, four for loss, two breakups), Dane Bathurst, LB (a sack, 1.5 for loss), Jacobe Johnson, DB (a sack; hurt at Georgia), Peyton Bowen, DB (a sack, 2.5 for loss, four breakups, the team lead), Kip Lewis, LB (a sack), David Stone, DL (half a sack, 2.5 for loss, 15 tackles), Jayden Jackson, DL (half a sack, 15 tackles), Taylor Wein, DL (three for loss), Danny Okoye, DL (two hurries), Bishop Thomas, DL, Jake Kreul, DL, and James Carrington, DL (half a sack each). In coverage: Peyton Bowen, DB, and Reggie Powers III, DB, again, Courtland Guillory, DB (two breakups), Eli Bowen, DB (two breakups, 12 tackles), Omarion Robinson, DB (the defense's one interception, per the committed player file), James Nesta, LB (16 tackles).
Texas: quarterback Arch Manning, who has completed 74 of 116 passes for 865 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions; third down is his best down by our numbers and first down his worst. His receivers: Ryan Wingo (19 catches, 239 yards, a 45-yarder; thrown to six times on third down, three conversions), Cam Coleman (11 catches, 194 yards, four touchdowns; the best money-down numbers on the team, thrown to five times on third down with four conversions; probable), Emmett Mosley V (12 catches, 173 yards), Jermaine Bishop Jr. (the 29-yarder on second-and-13 at Tennessee), Sterling Berkhalter (two third-down conversions on two throws, both from backup Karle Lacey Jr.), running backs Hollywood Smothers (the most third-down work of any back, and ten of the 15 short third-down runs that all converted are his; back at practice, no ruling), Raleek Brown and Derrek Cooper, and tight ends Emaree Winston (two third-down throws, both incomplete) and Spencer Shannon, with Nick Townsend back at practice. The blockers, the same five in every game: Trevor Goosby, Dylan Sikorski, Connor Robertson, Brandon Baker and Melvin Siani. The pass rushers: Colin Simmons (seven sacks), Maraad Watson (two), Hero Kanu, Rasheem Biles (who also leads the team in tackles and has two interceptions), Zina Umeozulu, Lance Jackson and Alex January (one each), Justin Cryer and Ian Geffrard (hurries), and Samari Matthews and Smith Orogbo (half a sack each). The pass defenders: Graceson Littleton (three knocked-down passes, the most on the team, and an interception), Jelani McDonald, Kade Phillips, Derek Williams Jr., Bo Mascoe and Kobe Black. Oklahoma: quarterback John Mateer (72 of 109 for 883 yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions), whose best down is second and whose worst are third and first. His receivers: Isaiah Sategna III (20 catches, 267 yards, a 53-yarder), tight end Rocky Beers (18 catches, 255 yards, a 43-yarder, and the one he looks for on third down), tight end Hayden Hansen, Parker Livingstone, Elijah Thomas, Mackenzie Alleyne (hurt at Georgia), Trell Harris (out), and running back Lloyd Avant out of the backfield. The blockers: center Jake Maikkula, Eddy Pierre-Louis, Noah Best, Heath Ozaeta, Ryan Fodje and Peyton Joseph, with left tackle Michael Fasusi out. The pass rushers: Adepoju Adebawore (2.5 sacks), linebacker Owen Heinecke (two sacks, and the team's leading tackler; questionable), defensive back Reggie Powers III (two sacks), Dane Bathurst, Jacobe Johnson (hurt at Georgia), Peyton Bowen and Kip Lewis (one each), David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Taylor Wein and Danny Okoye up front, and Bishop Thomas, Jake Kreul and James Carrington (half a sack each). The pass defenders: Peyton Bowen (four knocked-down passes, the most on the team), Reggie Powers III, Courtland Guillory, Eli Bowen, Omarion Robinson (the defense's one interception) and linebacker James Nesta.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. Texas's third-down rate, 50.0%, is the best number its offense owns, and the play-by-play says how it is built: 17 of 18 at three yards or less, where the runs are 15 for 15, ten of them Smothers's with no ruling on him yet, and nobody has to block for long, against 6 of 26 at seven or more, where the eight runs all failed and the throws are 6 of 20. Oklahoma's 23.1% allowed is the best number its defense owns, and it was built against Georgia (3 of 12) as much as UTEP. The two numbers cannot both hold, and which one does is the second tell by another name: Texas's 36.0% on passing downs, its one above-average passing rung, sits one rung above a protection that allows front-seven havoc at the 6th percentile, and Oklahoma's rush sits at the 91st with 13 sacks from 12 players. Ten sacks allowed, six at Tennessee, is either the Volunteer front or the Texas line, and Saturday's first 25 dropbacks say which. The other way, the Sooner passing game loses six of seven rungs to a coverage at the 91st percentile in pass success allowed and a rush at the 89th, and the one it wins is the deep ball, 80 against 70, Sategna and Beers against a secondary whose Lean strength the bye report was least sure of; Oklahoma's third-down record on the road, 5 of 27 at Michigan and Georgia, is the number the third tell is built on. The Texas defense's 5 of 32 allowed at seven or more is the best play-by-play line on the page, and Ohio State's Sayin owns three of the five. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Oklahoma on Manning's passing game against the secondary (w6-e1), Oklahoma in the pocket (w6-e4), Even on the deep game (w6-e5), Texas on Mateer against the coverage (w6-e6), Texas on the rush against the Sooner protection (w6-e9), Even on Sategna, Beers and the deep game (w6-e10). The call stays Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.
Our bottom line for today. Texas's third-down rate, half, is the best number its offense has, and the play-by-play says how it is built: 17 of 18 needing three yards or less, where the runs are 15 for 15, ten of them by Smothers, who has no ruling yet, and nobody has to block for long, against 6 of 26 needing seven or more, where all eight runs failed and the throws went 6 of 20. Oklahoma's defense allowing fewer than one third down in four is the best number it has, and it was built against Georgia (3 of 12) as much as against UTEP. The two numbers cannot both hold, and which one does is our second early sign by another name: Texas's must-pass plays work more often than most teams', its one clearly above-average passing row, and that row sits right above blockers who let front-line rushers through more often than all but eight teams, against a rush that is among the best in the country with 13 sacks from 12 different players. Ten sacks allowed, six at Tennessee, is either Tennessee's pass rush or Texas's blockers, and Manning's first 25 passing plays on Saturday say which. Going the other way, Oklahoma's passing game loses six of seven rows to a Texas pass defense and pass rush that are both among the best in the country, and the one row it wins is the long pass, Sategna and Beers against a secondary whose rating was the one last week's report was least sure of; Oklahoma's third-down record on the road, 5 of 27 at Michigan and Georgia, is what our third early sign is built on. Texas's defense allowing 5 of 32 third downs needing seven or more is the best play-by-play line on the page, and Ohio State's quarterback owns three of the five. Monday's picks do not change: an Oklahoma edge for its pass defense against Manning, an Oklahoma edge for its pass rush against Texas's blockers, a toss-up on Texas's long passes, a Texas edge for its pass defense against Mateer, a Texas edge for its pass rush against Oklahoma's blockers, and a toss-up on Oklahoma's long-pass game. The score we picked stays Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.
Availability, Wednesday morning: Venables's Monday night and Tuesday sessions are above (nobody named, "several guys" possible, Wednesday the word; Harris "foreseeable future"; the right-guard rotation; Stone ready); nothing dated Tuesday changed a status on the Texas side, and the one Tuesday practice note that exists is behind On Texas Football's paywall. The SEC's Wednesday report is the first official word, and Thursday's edition carries it. Every status is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams.Injury news as of Wednesday morning: Venables's Monday night and Tuesday comments are above (nobody named, "several guys" possible, Wednesday the word; Harris out "for the foreseeable future"; who played right guard at Georgia; Stone ready); nothing dated Tuesday changed anyone's status on the Texas side, and the one Tuesday practice note that exists is behind On Texas Football's paywall. The conference's official Wednesday list is the first real word, and Thursday's edition carries it. Every status is in our injury ledger for the week, both teams. Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week6: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware, through the Week 5 games, with Texas and Oklahoma on four games apiece; season, player and player-value stats for both teams; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file spells a name differently the roster wins), Oklahoma's four game boxes (data/2026/week6/oklahoma__game_boxes.json: third downs, fourth downs and sacks by game, both ways), the four Texas postgame boxes and the play-by-play of Texas's games against Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA and Tennessee (data/2026/week1 to week4, postgame files: third downs by distance and by run or throw, the sacks by down, the completions of 20 or more, the short-yardage runs; the CFBD definition of a passing down is second and eight or more, or third or fourth and five or more; a sack counts as a throw; a play nullified by penalty is not counted). No number on this page rests on SP+, which our data service had not updated past the Week 4 games at the Monday build. Oklahoma's one interception and one touchdown pass allowed were cross-checked Wednesday morning against ESPN's team page and cfbstats. Tuesday's words: AtoZ Sports, via Yahoo (Oct 6, 9:49 AM CT: Venables Monday night, "several guys"; the six ruled out before Georgia; Stone and Lewis before Georgia), The Oklahoman, via Yahoo (Oct 6, 2:02 PM CT: Venables declining injuries Monday and on the line Tuesday, "It's a long list"; the Fasusi line), OU Daily (Oct 6, Tuesday's press conference: "Way too many guys are coming and going," Venables on Mateer, Arbuckle), Sooners Wire, via Yahoo (Oct 6, 6:30 PM CT: Venables on the line), Sooners On SI (Oct 7, early: Arbuckle on the Texas rush) and The Oklahoman via Yahoo (Arbuckle on Simmons, quoted above), Sooners On SI (Oct 6: Harris "for the foreseeable future," the reporter's paraphrase of Venables), 247Sports (Venables after the Georgia game: the right-guard snap counts, "co-starters"), Sooners On SI (Oct 6: the line's transfers in and out, E'Marion Harris at right tackle), Sooners On SI (Oct 6: Fodje's Monday words, three games at left tackle), Sooners On SI (Oct 6: Stone after Monday's practice), Sooners Wire, via Yahoo (Oct 6, 1:39 PM CT: Mateer Monday night), Hook'em Headlines (Oct 6, 5:00 AM CT: the Texas non-update, the injuries by name, the 7:10 PM Wednesday report), Hook'em Headlines (Oct 6, 2:00 PM CT: Venables on Manning, "no weaknesses"). The sweep ran on fetch from the laptop (search was unavailable this morning); Burnt Orange Nation, On3 and Inside Texas, KXAN, the Statesman, The Oklahoman's own site, Reddit and soonersports.com's stats and depth chart could not be read, and On Texas Football's Tuesday practice note is member-gated. Everything dated Saturday, Sept 26, or later counts, the last game day for both teams; every status on this page is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams. Definitions in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's first availability report is Wednesday evening; Thursday's edition carries it. Checked before publication by a separate fact-check pass (Oct 7, about 6:30 AM CT): four material fixes applied before this page went out (Oklahoma's hurries are five in the boxes, not seven; three of Texas's four third-down sacks came at four to six yards to go, not two; The Oklahoman's line on Venables declining injuries was about Monday's coach's show, not Tuesday's press conference; the Sooner front's short-yardage number is the 86th percentile, not the stingiest on either schedule), six non-material and a handful of wording fixes, and four additions from the omission check (CBS's "hopeful to return," Arbuckle on the Texas rush as a unit, Stone's second sentence, Heinecke's hamstring); the second Game Plan correction above came from the same pass.