The compressed field, both ways: finishing drives, how often a drive gets there at all, the goal line by power success, the turnover profile with its luck sorted from its habit, and the kicking game, for a 2:30 kickoff at the Cotton Bowl the market had at 9.5 on Monday and 7.5 by Wednesday night. The fact the page is built around: Oklahoma's opponents start their drives at their own 33.9 on average, which is 137th of the 138 FBS teams, the cost of ten turnovers and an offense that reaches the opponent's 40 on fewer than half its drives; and then the Sooner defense allows 2.08 points per scoring opportunity, 4th in FBS, and 58% on power runs, 19th. Texas has reached the red zone 19 times in the four games we hold play-by-play for and scored on 17, 13 touchdowns, and its drives start at its own 32.1, 25th in FBS. The other way is the mismatch of the week: a Sooner offense that converts 33% of its power runs, last in the country, with two rushing touchdowns all season, against a Texas defense that has allowed three red-zone touchdowns on 11 trips. Ten rungs, eight to the defenses, and the two the Texas offense wins are getting there and where it starts. The SEC's first availability report of the week is in: Smothers is not on it, Townsend is probable, Terry and Kaliq Lockett doubtful, Jordan Coleman out, Filsaime off it for the first time this season; Oklahoma lists 13, Jacobe Johnson and Xavier Robinson out alongside Harris and Heim, Fasusi doubtful, Heinecke probable, Pierre-Louis questionable. Monday's chips do not move today; today explains them.
Today is about the short field: what each team does once it gets close to scoring, how often it gets close at all, whether it can get two yards when it needs them, who gives the ball away and who takes it, and the kickers, punters and return men, all for a 2:30 kickoff at the Cotton Bowl in a game the betting line had at 9.5 points on Monday and 7.5 by Wednesday night. The fact this page is built around: teams playing Oklahoma start their drives at about their own 34-yard line on average, worse for Oklahoma than every defense in the country but one, because the Sooners have given the ball away ten times and their offense gets past midfield to the other team's 40 on fewer than half its drives; and then Oklahoma's defense digs in, allowing fewer points per close-range drive than all but three defenses in the country and stopping short-yardage runs better than all but 18. Texas has been inside the 20 nineteen times in the four games we have play-by-play for and scored on 17 of them, 13 touchdowns, and it starts its drives at about its own 32, which is 25th-best in the country. The other way is the biggest mismatch of the week: an Oklahoma offense that converts one short-yardage run in three, last in the country, with two rushing touchdowns all season, against a Texas defense that has allowed three touchdowns on 11 trips inside its 20. Of the ten rows on our two charts the defenses win eight, and the two Texas's offense wins are getting close and where its drives start. The conference's first official injury list of the week is out: Smothers is not on it, Townsend is probable, Terry and Kaliq Lockett are doubtful, Jordan Coleman is out, and Filsaime is off it for the first time this season; Oklahoma lists 13 names, with Jacobe Johnson and Xavier Robinson out alongside Harris and Heim, Fasusi doubtful, Heinecke probable and Pierre-Louis a coin flip. Monday's picks do not change today; today explains them.
Read it top to bottom: what a drive is worth once it crosses the opponent's 40 (points per scoring opportunity, the public stand-in for red-zone efficiency; the snapshot we build from carries no red-zone count, so the red-zone numbers on this page come from the play-by-play we hold and from the official statistics where we could read them), how often a drive gets there at all, whether the offense can get two yards when everyone knows it will run (power success, the goal-line proxy), how often a run dies behind the line, and where drives start. Three rungs to the Sooner defense, two to the Texas offense, and the two it wins are the two that come first in the order of a drive. Texas starts at its own 32.1 on average, the 80th percentile, 25th in FBS, and Oklahoma's opponents start at their own 33.9, which for the Sooner defense is the 1st percentile, 137th of 138: only one defense in the country takes the field closer to its own goal line. That is not a defensive number; it is the bill for ten giveaways and a Sooner offense that starts at its own 27.6 and reaches the 40 on fewer than half its drives, and it is why Monday's special-teams chip leaned Texas. Texas then gets a drive inside the 40 on 0.700 of its possessions, the 70th percentile, 39th in FBS, and the Sooner defense lets opponents there on 0.649 of theirs, the 17th, 114th of 138; Michigan and Georgia got there, and so has everybody. Then the field closes. Oklahoma allows 2.08 points per scoring opportunity, the 97th percentile, 4th in FBS, against a Texas finish of 4.25, the 64th, 49th in FBS; it allows 58% on power runs, the 86th, 19th in FBS, against Texas's 78%, the 64th (14 of 15 by our count in the held games, the one failure Wingo's fourth-and-1 loss of 10 against Ohio State); and it stuffs 18.5% of runs, the 46th, against a Texas line that gets a run stuffed on 19.4%, the 27th. The play-by-play says the Texas finish is better than the 64th reads: 19 red-zone trips in four games, 17 scores, 13 touchdowns and four field goals, the two empties Manning's third-and-11 interception at the Texas State 11 with six seconds left in the half and a fourth-and-5 incompletion at the UTSA 14 with 11 seconds left in the third quarter; by game 7 trips and 6 touchdowns, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 3 and 2. Of ten goal-to-go series, seven ended in touchdowns, two in field goals (Spetic from 23 against UTSA, from 22 at Tennessee) and one in the interception. Thirteen of the 15 offensive touchdowns came from the 20 or closer (the exceptions Brown's 21-yarder in the opener and Coleman's 24-yarder against UTSA), and the ones from the 1 were runs: Smothers from the 1 twice against Ohio State, Cooper from the 1 against UTSA, Brown from the 4 at Tennessee, Simon from the 7 in the opener. Against the 4th-best finishing defense in the country, that is the matchup: the chips at the line (w6-e2) and with the backs (w6-e3) are Oklahoma's, by 66 and 58 on Monday's board, and this page's goal-line rung, 64 against 86, is the narrowest version of them. The chips stand.
Read it top to bottom: how many points a drive produces once it gets inside the other team's 40 (our stand-in for red-zone efficiency, because the data we build from does not count red-zone trips; the red-zone numbers on this page come from the play-by-play of Texas's games and from the official statistics where we could read them), how often a drive gets that far at all, whether the offense can get two yards when everyone in the stadium knows it will run (the goal-line test), how often a run is stopped behind the line, and where drives start. Three rows go to Oklahoma's defense and two to Texas's offense, and the two Texas wins are the two that come first in the life of a drive. Texas starts at about its own 32 on average, 25th-best in the country, and the teams that play Oklahoma start at about their own 34, which for a defense is worse than everyone but one: only one defense in the country takes the field closer to its own goal line. That is not a defensive failing; it is the bill for ten giveaways and an offense that starts at about its own 28 and gets to the other team's 40 on fewer than half its drives, and it is why Monday's special-teams pick leaned Texas. Texas then gets a drive inside the 40 on seven of every ten possessions, 39th in the country, and Oklahoma's defense lets opponents there on about two of every three, poor for a defense, 114th of 138; Michigan and Georgia got close, and so has everybody. Then the field closes. Once a drive is inside its 40, Oklahoma allows fewer points per drive than all but three defenses in the country, while Texas scores a little more than average from there, 49th; Oklahoma stops short-yardage runs better than all but 18 defenses, while Texas converts them a little better than average (14 of 15 by our count, the one failure Wingo's fourth-and-1 loss of 10 against Ohio State); and Oklahoma stops runs behind the line about as often as average, while Texas has runs stopped behind the line more often than most. The play-by-play says the Texas finish is better than "about average" reads: 19 trips inside the 20 in four games, 17 scores, 13 touchdowns and four field goals, the two that came up empty being Manning's interception on third-and-11 from the Texas State 11 with six seconds left in the half and an incomplete fourth-down pass from the UTSA 14 with 11 seconds left in the third quarter; by game 7 trips and 6 touchdowns, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 3 and 2. Of the ten times Texas had a first down inside the other team's 10, seven ended in touchdowns, two in field goals (from 23 yards against UTSA, from 22 at Tennessee) and one in the interception. Thirteen of the 15 offensive touchdowns came from the 20 or closer (the exceptions Brown's 21-yarder in the opener and Coleman's 24-yarder against UTSA), and the ones from the 1 were runs: Smothers from the 1 twice against Ohio State, Cooper from the 1 against UTSA, Brown from the 4 at Tennessee, Simon from the 7 in the opener. Against the fourth-best close-range defense in the country, that is the matchup: Monday's picks at the line of scrimmage and with the running backs went to Oklahoma, by a lot, and this page's short-yardage row is the closest version of them. The picks stand.
The mirror, and the side of the page with nothing even on it: five rungs, five to the Texas defense, four of them by 50 or more. Oklahoma gets a drive inside the opponent's 40 on 0.462 of its possessions, the 5th percentile, 130th of 138 (18 scoring opportunities in 39 drives), and finishes at 3.39 points a chance, the 28th, 99th in FBS; the Texas defense lets a drive inside its 40 on 0.512 of possessions, the 67th, 45th in FBS, and allows 2.19 once there, the 95th, 7th in FBS. At the goal line the Sooners convert 33% of their power runs, the 0th percentile, which is to say last of 138, the number Monday's chip w6-e8 was built on, and their runs are stuffed on 25.0%, the 8th, 126th of 138; the Texas front allows 70% on power runs, the 55th (7 of 11 by our count, one of the four stops James Jackson's fourth-and-2 from the Texas 13 against Ohio State, stopped at the 12 by McDonald and Kanu), and stuffs 20.8%, the 67th. The season file puts it plainly: Oklahoma has two rushing touchdowns in four games, Avant's and Newbauer's, against eight passing touchdowns, and has scored 88 points, 51 of them against UTEP and 37 in the three games since (10 at Michigan, 14 against New Mexico, 13 at Georgia). Oklahoma's official statistics (through Sept 26) count nine red-zone trips in four games, eight scores, four touchdowns and four field goals, which its game notes call 89%; its opponents have ten trips, six scores and three touchdowns, and the Sooner red-zone defense ranks 2nd nationally by the notes' count at 60%, Texas's tied 22nd at 72.7%. Nine trips in four games is the getting-there rung in one number: Texas has 19 in four. Across from it, the Texas defense in the four held games: 11 red-zone trips allowed, three touchdowns (D. Jackson from the 4 for Texas State; James Jackson from the 8 and Sayin to Jeremiah Smith from the 19 for Ohio State), five field goals, and three empties (Cunanan's misses from 24 and 35 in the opener, the Ohio State turnover on downs at the 12); by game 3, 5, 2, 1, with Tennessee's one trip ending in Ranvier's 33-yard field goal. Three goal-to-go series allowed all season, one touchdown. Tennessee's touchdown came from the 30, and its other points came from a punt return, which is the kicking-game panel's problem. Field position is the one rung that is close, and it is close because the Sooner offense is the thing that sets its own: Oklahoma starts at its own 27.6, the 30th percentile, 93rd in FBS, and the Texas defense's opponents at their own 27.3, the 59th. Monday's chips stand: Texas against the Sooner backs (w6-e7, 77 against 1) and Texas at the Sooner line (w6-e8, 82 against 7), and the goal line is where the second of them is tested first.
The same ladder the other way, and the side of the page with nothing close on it: five rows, five to Texas's defense, four of them by a wide margin. Oklahoma gets a drive inside the other team's 40 on fewer than half its possessions, 130th of 138 teams (18 such drives out of 39), and scores less from there than all but 39 teams; Texas's defense lets a drive get inside its 40 about half the time, 45th, and once a drive is there allows fewer points than all but six defenses in the country. In short yardage the Sooners convert one run in three, last in the country, the number Monday's pick at Oklahoma's line of scrimmage was built on, and their runs are stopped behind the line a quarter of the time, 126th of 138; Texas's defense allows 70% in short yardage, about average (7 of 11 by our count, one of the four stops being James Jackson's fourth-and-2 from the Texas 13 for Ohio State, stopped at the 12 by McDonald and Kanu), and stops runs behind the line a little more often than most. The season file says it plainly: Oklahoma has two rushing touchdowns in four games, one by Avant and one by backup quarterback Newbauer, against eight touchdown passes, and has scored 88 points, 51 of them against UTEP and 37 in the three games since (10 at Michigan, 14 against New Mexico, 13 at Georgia). Oklahoma's official statistics (through Sept 26) count nine trips inside the 20 in four games, eight of them producing points, four touchdowns and four field goals; opponents have had ten trips and scored on six, three of them touchdowns, and by its own notes' count Oklahoma's red-zone defense ranks second in the country, Texas's tied for 22nd. Nine trips in four games is the getting-there row in one number: Texas has had 19 in four. Across from it, Texas's defense in the four games we hold: 11 trips inside its 20 allowed, three touchdowns (one for Texas State from the 4; for Ohio State, James Jackson from the 8 and a 19-yard pass to Jeremiah Smith), five field goals, and three that came up empty (Texas State's missed kicks from 24 and 35, Ohio State's failed fourth down at the 12); by game 3, 5, 2 and 1, with Tennessee's one trip ending in a 33-yard field goal. Only three times all season has an opponent had a first down inside the Texas 10, and once it scored a touchdown. Tennessee's touchdown came from the 30, and its other points came from a punt return, which is the kicking-game panel's problem. Where drives start is the one row that is close, and it is close because Oklahoma's own offense is what sets it: the Sooners start at about their own 28, 93rd in the country, and the teams playing Texas start at about their own 27, a little better than average for a defense. Monday's picks stand: Texas against Oklahoma's running backs and Texas at Oklahoma's line of scrimmage, and the goal line is where the second of them gets tested first.
Oklahoma is −6, and half of it is a habit. Ten giveaways: six fumbles lost (Mateer two, Beers, Livingstone, Sategna and Bass one each) and Mateer's four interceptions; four takeaways: three fumble recoveries (Bishop Thomas, Taylor Wein, James Nesta) and Omarion Robinson's one interception. By game +1 against UTEP, then −2 at Michigan, −3 against New Mexico and −2 at Georgia, where Chris Cole returned the first of two Mateer fumbles 85 yards. The interception half, −3, is the habit (Mateer threw 11 last year and three in this game); the fumble half, −3, is the luckiest number in football and the one due to shrink, which Monday's Coaching & Luck chip already said. Texas by the play-by-play is +1: four giveaways (Manning's three interceptions, Nolan's at the goal line in the opener, McClain's against Ohio State, Lee's at the Tennessee 4; Brown's lost fumble against Ohio State) and five takeaways (Biles's two interceptions and Littleton's one; the Atkins fumble Biles forced and Littleton returned 59 yards for a touchdown, and the Texas State quarterback's fumble that Maraad Watson, DL, forced with a sack and Simmons recovered, both in the opener). The season file we build from credits Texas with two lost fumbles and a margin of 0, which is what Monday's page printed, and Texas's official statistics say the same; the four game boxes and our count of every play find one, Brown's, so the disagreement is between two official tallies, and the difference does not change the shape of the number, which is three interceptions each way and no fumble luck to speak of. Texas has one takeaway in its last two games, Biles's interception on UTSA's first snap, and none at Tennessee, against a team that has given it away nine times in its last three. Penalties, the other giveaway: Texas 25 for 250 yards, 62.5 a game; Oklahoma 26 for 214, 53.5. Monday's chip w6-e12, Texas, stands.
Oklahoma has come out six turnovers behind this season, and half of that is a pattern. Ten giveaways: six fumbles lost (two by Mateer, one each by Beers, Livingstone, Sategna and Bass) and four interceptions, all Mateer's; four takeaways: three fumbles recovered (by Bishop Thomas, Taylor Wein and James Nesta) and one interception, by Omarion Robinson. By game, one ahead against UTEP, then two behind at Michigan, three behind against New Mexico and two behind at Georgia, where Chris Cole picked up the first of two Mateer fumbles and ran it back 85 yards. The interception half is the pattern (Mateer threw 11 last year, three of them in this game); the fumble half is mostly luck, which bounce goes which way, and that is the part that should even out, as Monday's coaching-and-luck pick already said. Texas, by our count of every play, is one turnover ahead: four giveaways (three Manning interceptions, one at the goal line in the opener, one against Ohio State, one at the Tennessee 4; and Raleek Brown's lost fumble against Ohio State) and five takeaways (two interceptions by Rasheem Biles and one by Graceson Littleton; a fumble Biles knocked loose and Littleton returned 59 yards for a touchdown, and a fumble Maraad Watson forced with a sack that Colin Simmons fell on, both in the opener). The season file we build from counts two Texas fumbles lost and an even margin, which is what Monday's page printed, and Texas's own official statistics agree; the four game box scores and our count of every play find one, Brown's, so two official tallies disagree with each other, and the difference does not change the shape of it: three interceptions each way and no fumble luck to speak of. Texas has one takeaway in its last two games, Biles's interception on UTSA's first play, and none at Tennessee, against a team that has given it away nine times in its last three. Penalties are the other way to give something away: Texas 25 for 250 yards, about 63 a game; Oklahoma 26 for 214, about 54. Monday's pick, Texas on coaching and luck, stands.
Monday's chip, Texas, slight, was the field position and the kickers, and the punters and returners were the reason for the slight; all of it holds. The kickers: Gianni Spetic, PK, is 7 of 7 (48, 37, 52, 34, 23, 22, 44 yards, in that order) and 16 of 16 on extra points, with a 36-yard miss against UTSA erased by a roughing-the-kicker penalty; Tate Sandell, PK, is 3 of 5 with a long of 34 and 9 of 9 on extra points, 3 of 3 from 30 to 39 and 0 of 2 from 40 or more (a 41-yarder against New Mexico and a try from 50-plus), and Liam Evans, PK, 1 of 1 from 34, so Oklahoma has not made a field goal longer than 34 yards this season, and the points-per-opportunity rung above is partly that. Kickoffs: Spetic has kicked off 27 times with 18 touchbacks, seven returns for 19.6 a return, one out of bounds at Tennessee (a penalty) and one fair catch at the 2; Sandell has kicked off 16 times with 14 touchbacks and one out of bounds, and Trace Rudd, PK, three times, all touchbacks (Oklahoma's official statistics), and opponents have returned one Sooner kickoff all season, for 24 yards. Sarkisian's one special-teams word in the window, during the bye (the Statesman, Oct 5): "The biggest thing on special teams we need to get is we need more depth. We need other guys taking some of the heat off these guys on punt, punt return, kickoff coverage, and so we need the depth to step up." The Statesman's context: four defensive starters, Phillips, Littleton, Justin Cryer and Biles, had at least 30 special-teams snaps through four games. The punters lean Oklahoma, and the net leans harder: Grayson Miller, listed as a PK on the roster, has punted ten times for 45.0 with a long of 62 and four inside the 20, Jacob Ulrich, P, seven for 47.9 with a long of 56, and Oklahoma has allowed five punt returns for 35 yards, a net of about 43 by our arithmetic (gross minus return yards and touchbacks); Mac Chiumento, P, has punted 13 times for 43.9 with a long of 54, two inside the 20 and a touchback, and Texas has allowed five returns for 74, a net of about 37, because 57 of the 74 were Quavion Moss's touchdown at Neyland, one of Tennessee's two touchdowns in a three-point game and, per the Statesman, the first punt return for a touchdown by a Texas opponent since 2013. Texas's own game notes rank it: net punting Oklahoma 28th at 42.94, Texas 121st at 36.69. The returners lean Oklahoma too: Isaiah Sategna III, WR, has seven punt returns for 130 yards, 18.6 a return, with the 88-yard touchdown against UTEP, and five kickoff returns for 105, 21.0, a long of 28, though the Sooner depth chart lists Avant and Hatton on kickoffs; the game notes rank Oklahoma 13th in punt returns and 55th on kickoffs, Texas tied 46th and 129th. Ryan Niblett, RB, has eight punt returns for 96, 12.0, a long of 21, with a 44-yarder against UTSA wiped out by an illegal block in the back, and five kickoff returns for 74, 14.8; Smothers took one kickoff back 19 yards against Ohio State. Texas's own hands: Niblett muffed a punt at his 11 against Ohio State and Kade Phillips, DB, recovered at the 9; Tennessee's onside kick with 1:22 left, Ross's 14-yarder, was recovered by Tennessee; the SEC later acknowledged Tennessee should have been flagged for how it lined up, and Wingo had a chance at the ball and did not come up with it ("I messed up, (but the defense) came out there and got a stop," he told the Statesman), and the game ended on McDonald's breakup in the end zone. A long Bishop punt return the same day was waved off because Niblett had signaled a fair catch (the Statesman). The one special-teams number that leans Texas hardest, the 80 against 30 on where drives start, is the turnover number wearing a different hat. SP+ special teams: Texas +0.3, Oklahoma +0.2, a wash, in a file the service had not updated past Week 4 when this week's snapshot was taken. The chip stands as Texas, slight, on the kickers and the field position, with the punt team held to slight by the one unit that beat it last time out.
Monday gave Texas a slight special-teams edge because of the kickers and the field position, and called it slight because of the punters and the return men; all of that still holds. The kickers: Texas's Gianni Spetic has made all seven field goals (from 48, 37, 52, 34, 23, 22 and 44 yards, in that order) and all 16 extra points, and a 36-yard miss against UTSA was wiped out when a UTSA player ran into him; Oklahoma's Tate Sandell is 3 of 5 with a long of 34, perfect on nine extra points, with the two misses from 41 against New Mexico and from 50-plus, and Liam Evans made his one try, from 34, so Oklahoma has not made a field goal longer than 34 yards all season, which is part of why it scores so little from close range. Kickoffs: Spetic has kicked off 27 times, 18 of them into the end zone for touchbacks, with seven brought out for about 20 yards each, one out of bounds at Tennessee and one fair-caught at the 2; Sandell has kicked off 16 times with 14 touchbacks and one out of bounds, and Trace Rudd three times, all touchbacks, and opponents have returned only one Oklahoma kickoff all season, for 24 yards. Sarkisian's one comment on special teams this week came during the bye: "The biggest thing on special teams we need to get is we need more depth. We need other guys taking some of the heat off these guys on punt, punt return, kickoff coverage, and so we need the depth to step up." The Statesman's context: four defensive starters, Phillips, Littleton, Justin Cryer and Biles, had at least 30 special-teams snaps through four games. The punters lean Oklahoma, and the net result more so: Grayson Miller averages 45 yards on ten punts with a long of 62 and four dropped inside the 20, Jacob Ulrich about 48 on seven, and Oklahoma has allowed only 35 yards of punt returns all season, so its punts net about 43 yards each by our arithmetic; Texas's Mac Chiumento averages about 44 on 13, with a long of 54, two inside the 20 and one into the end zone, and Texas has allowed 74 yards of punt returns, so its punts net about 37, because 57 of those 74 yards were Quavion Moss's touchdown at Tennessee, one of Tennessee's two touchdowns in a game decided by three points and the first punt returned for a touchdown against Texas since 2013. Texas's own game notes rank it: Oklahoma 28th in the country in net punting, Texas 121st. The return men lean Oklahoma too: receiver Isaiah Sategna III averages about 19 yards on seven punt returns, including an 88-yard touchdown against UTEP, and 21 yards on five kickoff returns, even though Oklahoma's depth chart lists Avant and Hatton as the kickoff returners; Oklahoma ranks 13th in the country on punt returns and 55th on kickoffs, Texas tied for 46th and 129th. Texas's Ryan Niblett averages 12 on eight punt returns, with a 44-yarder against UTSA called back for a block in the back, and about 15 on five kickoff returns, and Smothers brought one kickoff back 19 yards against Ohio State. Texas's own hands: Niblett bobbled a punt at his 11 against Ohio State and Kade Phillips fell on it at the 9, and Tennessee's onside kick with 1:22 left was recovered by Tennessee, after which the conference admitted Tennessee should have been penalized for how it lined up, and Wingo, who had a chance at the ball, did not come up with it ("I messed up, (but the defense) came out there and got a stop"), so the game ended on a pass broken up in the end zone by Jelani McDonald. A long punt return by Jermaine Bishop Jr. the same day was called back because Niblett had signaled for a fair catch. The one special-teams number that leans hardest to Texas, where drives start, is really the turnover number wearing a different hat. The computer rating for special teams calls the two teams even, in a file that had not been updated past the Week 4 games when we took this week's snapshot. Monday's pick stands: Texas, slightly, on the kickers and the field position, held to slightly by the one unit that beat Texas last time out.
Texas: four names on the SEC's Wednesday report (posted 7:10 PM CT; we read the conference's own feed, and Hook'em Headlines, Texas Longhorns On SI, Burnt Orange Nation, Inside Texas and the Statesman carried it the same way). Jordan Coleman · OL · Out (he has been in a boot, per Inside Texas; out since the week of Tennessee). Kaliq Lockett · WR · Doubtful, a new name, not on the Tennessee-week report (Texas Longhorns On SI calls him "a surprising addition"; Inside Texas says he "was not seen in the traveling party" at Tennessee). Justus Terry · DL · Doubtful (a toe, hurt "warming up before the win over the Buckeyes," per Burnt Orange Nation; the opener is his only game). Nick Townsend · TE · Probable ("bone bruise in his knee," Burnt Orange Nation; out since Ohio State). Not listed, which the conference's feed carries as available: Hollywood Smothers · RB · Available ("nowhere to be found," Hook'em Headlines; "completely off the injury report," Texas Longhorns On SI); Cam Coleman · WR · Available; Xavier Filsaime · DB · Available, off the report for the first time this season and, per Texas Longhorns On SI, "set to make his season debut"; Cole Hutson · OL · Available on the feed, with the eligibility question the bye week report carried not addressed in anything dated this week. The Statesman: those four "were the only four names." Oklahoma: 13 names. Out: Taylor Heim · LB · Out; Trell Harris · WR · Out (hurt at Michigan; Inside Texas reports "an internal organ issue as a result of a hit in that game"); Xavier Robinson · RB · Out (three snaps at Georgia; Sooners Wire: "Why Robinson isn't available is anyone's guess"); Jacobe Johnson · DB · Out (left the Georgia game "on crutches," Inside Texas). Doubtful: Trynae Washington · TE · Doubtful (Sooners Wire: "a piece of Oklahoma's short-yardage formations, lining up in the backfield as a fullback"); Michael Fasusi · OL · Doubtful (17 snaps this season, none since the opener, a shoulder; Sooner Scoop's George Stoia calls him "50/50" via Inside Texas); Fred Hinton · OL · Doubtful. Questionable, the conference's 50% category: Jer'Michael Carter · WR · Questionable; Cole Sullivan · LB · Questionable and Michael Boganowski · DB · Questionable, who have each missed the last two games (Sooners On SI); Eddy Pierre-Louis · OL · Questionable, who played 64 of 72 snaps at Georgia; Jack Van Dorselaer · TE · Questionable. Probable: Owen Heinecke · LB · Probable, the hamstring strain from Georgia; he leads the Sooners with 28 tackles (The Oklahoman). Not listed: Mackenzie Alleyne · WR · Available, David Stone · DL · Available, and every specialist on this page, Sandell, Evans, Miller, Ulrich and Sategna. Every status is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams.
Texas: four names on the conference's official Wednesday injury list (posted at 7:10 in the evening; we read the conference's own feed, and five Texas outlets reported it the same way). Lineman Jordan Coleman is out; he has been wearing a boot. Receiver Kaliq Lockett is doubtful, a new name that was not on the list before the Tennessee game. Defensive lineman Justus Terry is doubtful with a toe injury he suffered warming up before the Ohio State game; he has played only the opener. Tight end Nick Townsend is probable, with a bone bruise in his knee, after missing the last two games. Not on the list, which means available: running back Hollywood Smothers (one outlet: "nowhere to be found" on it), receiver Cam Coleman, defensive back Xavier Filsaime, who is off the list for the first time this season and is expected to play his first game, and lineman Cole Hutson, listed as available on the feed, with the question of whether he is eligible to play, which our bye week report raised, not addressed in anything written this week. Oklahoma: 13 names. Out: linebacker Taylor Heim; receiver Trell Harris, hurt at Michigan with what one report calls an internal organ injury; running back Xavier Robinson, who played three snaps at Georgia and whose absence the Oklahoma beat cannot explain; and defensive back Jacobe Johnson, who left the Georgia game on crutches. Doubtful: tight end Trynae Washington, who has lined up as a fullback in Oklahoma's short-yardage sets; lineman Michael Fasusi, who has played 17 snaps all season and none since the opener because of a shoulder, and whom one Oklahoma reporter calls a 50-50 proposition; and lineman Fred Hinton. Questionable, which the conference defines as about a 50% chance to play: receiver Jer'Michael Carter; linebacker Cole Sullivan and defensive back Michael Boganowski, who have each missed the last two games; lineman Eddy Pierre-Louis, who played 64 of 72 snaps at Georgia; and tight end Jack Van Dorselaer. Probable: linebacker Owen Heinecke, with the hamstring he strained at Georgia; he leads Oklahoma in tackles with 28. Not on the list: receiver Mackenzie Alleyne, defensive lineman David Stone, and every kicker, punter and return man named on this page. Every status is in our injury ledger for the week, both teams.
What it changes. Monday's availability block, which had Smothers expected back, Townsend, Terry and Filsaime out with no update, the six Sooners out before Georgia still out with no update, Heinecke questionable, Johnson and Alleyne hurt with severity unknown, and which Tuesday's ledger followed with Pierre-Louis and Robinson available, is stale on more than a dozen names and carries a dated Oct 8 correction in place, the third of the week; no chip, no tell and not the call. What it sharpens: Smothers available is what Monday's chip w6-e3 and this page's goal-line rung were written for (ten of the 15 converted short third-down runs are his, and both of his touchdowns came from the 1); Washington doubtful takes a fullback out of a short-yardage package that converts 33%, last in FBS; Fasusi doubtful and Pierre-Louis questionable are the Sooner line chip, w6-e8, with two more bodies in doubt; Filsaime's debut adds a defensive back to a secondary Monday graded Lean strength. The coaches, Wednesday, said nothing about a name: Sarkisian on the SEC teleconference talked about the Cotton Bowl ("the better we can have the right mental intensity and focus to play clear-minded, the better chance we have to play good football"); Venables, asked whether the rivalry adds pressure, "No. You put pressure on yourself all the time," and on the short field this week, as The Oklahoman carried it: "We scored the first couple of times last year; we just had to settle for field goals. So we need to be a little cleaner, a little more precise when we get down into the red zone. Obviously, the windows are tight, the timing's fast. It's always tough, but the formula for winning is scoring touchdowns and not having to settle for field goals." The line: Texas −9.5 at DraftKings in Monday's committed pull; by Wednesday night VegasInsider's grid had DraftKings and FanDuel at Texas by 7.5 on a total of 39.5 (7:50 PM CT), having touched 8.5 on the way; the Walkthrough reads Thursday's report, tonight at 7:10, and Friday's lines, and affirms the call or changes it for a stated reason.
What it changes. Monday's injury block is now out of date on a dozen names, so it carries a dated correction, the third this week; none of Monday's picks, none of our three early signs, and not the score. What gets sharper: Smothers being available is what Monday's pick with the running backs and this page's short-yardage row were written for (ten of the 15 short third-down runs Texas has converted were his, and both of his touchdowns came from the 1); Washington being doubtful takes a fullback out of a short-yardage package that already converts one try in three, last in the country; Fasusi doubtful and Pierre-Louis questionable put two more bodies on Oklahoma's line in doubt, which is Monday's pick at that line of scrimmage with more reasons; and Filsaime's first game adds a defensive back to a secondary we rated well last week. Neither coach said a word about a specific player on Wednesday: Sarkisian, on the conference's weekly call, talked about the Cotton Bowl and keeping his team's "mental intensity and focus"; Venables, asked whether the rivalry adds pressure, said "No. You put pressure on yourself all the time," and on close-range scoring this week: "We scored the first couple of times last year; we just had to settle for field goals. So we need to be a little cleaner, a little more precise when we get down into the red zone. Obviously, the windows are tight, the timing's fast. It's always tough, but the formula for winning is scoring touchdowns and not having to settle for field goals." The betting line by Wednesday night had Texas by 7.5 at two major books, with about 39.5 total points expected, in from Texas by 9.5 on Monday after touching 8.5; Friday's update reads tonight's second injury list and Friday's line, and either keeps our score or changes it for a reason we state.
Texas: Arch Manning, QB (74 of 116 for 865, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, all three caught in scoring range, at the Texas State goal line, the Ohio State 12 and the Tennessee 4; 31 carries for 79, no rushing touchdown); Raleek Brown, RB (48 for 196, four rushing touchdowns, the most on the team, from the 13, 21, 9 and 4); Hollywood Smothers, RB (41 for 198, two touchdowns, both from the 1 against Ohio State, and the 13-yard touchdown catch in the opener; the stats file spells him Daylan; not on Wednesday's report, available); Derrek Cooper, RB (20 for 57, the 1-yard touchdown against UTSA); James Simon, RB (the 7-yard touchdown in the opener); Ryan Wingo, WR (19 for 239, two touchdowns, from the 8 and, on third and 1, the 3); Cam Coleman, WR (11 for 194, four touchdowns, from the 6, 20, 24 and 3; not on the report, available); Emmett Mosley V, WR (12 for 173; the target on the fourth down at the UTSA 14); Gianni Spetic, PK; Mac Chiumento, P (the holder too); Trey Dubuc, LS; Ryan Niblett, RB (punts and kickoffs); Kade Phillips, DB (the muff recovery). The defense inside its 40: Rasheem Biles, LB (two interceptions, the forced fumble in the opener); Graceson Littleton, DB (an interception, the 59-yard fumble return for a touchdown); Colin Simmons, EDGE (the fumble recovery off Watson's sack, seven sacks); Jelani McDonald, DB (the fourth-down stop at the 12 with Hero Kanu, DL; the breakup that ended the Tennessee game); Rasheem Biles's sack on Tennessee's last drive, and Zina Umeozulu, EDGE (the strip of Brandon on the drive before it, recovered by Tennessee); Nick Townsend, TE (probable), Justus Terry, DL (doubtful), Kaliq Lockett, WR (doubtful), Jordan Coleman, OL (out), Xavier Filsaime, DB (off the report, his first game). Oklahoma: John Mateer, QB (72 of 109 for 883, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, two lost fumbles; 41 carries for 76, no rushing touchdown); Lloyd Avant, RB (42 for 164, the one rushing touchdown by a back); Xavier Robinson, RB (13 for 50), Jonathan Hatton Jr., RB (14 for 43), Tory Blaylock, RB (8 for 15), Ben McCreary, RB (6 for 40); Whitt Newbauer, QB (the other rushing touchdown); Rocky Beers, TE (18 for 255, two touchdowns), Isaiah Sategna III, WR (20 for 267, two touchdowns; the punt and kickoff returner), Hayden Hansen, TE, Manny Choice, WR, and Mackenzie Alleyne, WR (a touchdown catch each; not on the report, available), Trell Harris, WR (a touchdown catch; out); Tate Sandell, PK, Liam Evans, PK, Grayson Miller, PK (the main punter), Jacob Ulrich, P. The defense inside its 20: Omarion Robinson, DB (the interception); Bishop Thomas, DL, Taylor Wein, DL, and James Nesta, LB (the fumble recoveries); Adepoju Adebawore, DL (2.5 sacks), Reggie Powers III, DB (two), Kip Lewis, LB; Owen Heinecke, LB (28 tackles, probable); Trynae Washington, TE (the short-yardage fullback, doubtful), Michael Fasusi, OL (doubtful), Fred Hinton, OL (doubtful), Eddy Pierre-Louis, OL (questionable), Cole Sullivan, LB, Michael Boganowski, DB, Jer'Michael Carter, WR, and Jack Van Dorselaer, TE (questionable), Taylor Heim, LB, Jacobe Johnson, DB, and Xavier Robinson, RB (out).
Texas: quarterback Arch Manning, 74 of 116 for 865 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions, all three caught in scoring range, at the Texas State goal line, the Ohio State 12 and the Tennessee 4, with no rushing touchdown; running back Raleek Brown, four rushing touchdowns, the most on the team, from the 13, 21, 9 and 4; running back Hollywood Smothers, two rushing touchdowns, both from the 1 against Ohio State, plus a 13-yard touchdown catch in the opener (not on Wednesday's list, available); running back Derrek Cooper, the 1-yard touchdown against UTSA; running back James Simon, the 7-yard touchdown in the opener; receiver Ryan Wingo, two touchdown catches, from the 8 and, on third-and-1, the 3; receiver Cam Coleman, four touchdown catches, from the 6, 20, 24 and 3 (not on the list, available); receiver Emmett Mosley V, the target on the failed fourth down at the UTSA 14; kicker Gianni Spetic; punter Mac Chiumento, who also holds; long snapper Trey Dubuc; Ryan Niblett, who returns punts and kickoffs; Kade Phillips, who fell on the bobbled punt. On defense near its own goal: linebacker Rasheem Biles, two interceptions and a forced fumble; Graceson Littleton, an interception and the 59-yard fumble return for a touchdown; Colin Simmons, who recovered the fumble Watson forced and has seven sacks; Jelani McDonald, who stopped the fourth down at the 12 with Hero Kanu and broke up the last pass at Tennessee; Biles again, with the sack on Tennessee's last drive, and Zina Umeozulu, who knocked the ball loose from Brandon on the drive before it, Tennessee recovering; tight end Nick Townsend (probable), defensive lineman Justus Terry (doubtful), receiver Kaliq Lockett (doubtful), lineman Jordan Coleman (out) and defensive back Xavier Filsaime (off the list, his first game). Oklahoma: quarterback John Mateer, 72 of 109 for 883 yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions and two lost fumbles, with no rushing touchdown; running back Lloyd Avant, the only running back with a rushing touchdown; running backs Xavier Robinson, Jonathan Hatton Jr., Tory Blaylock and Ben McCreary; backup quarterback Whitt Newbauer, the other rushing touchdown; tight end Rocky Beers and receiver Isaiah Sategna III, two touchdown catches each, Sategna also the punt and kickoff returner; tight end Hayden Hansen and receivers Manny Choice and Mackenzie Alleyne, a touchdown catch each (not on the list, available); receiver Trell Harris, a touchdown catch (out); kickers Tate Sandell and Liam Evans; Grayson Miller, the main punter, listed as a kicker on the roster; punter Jacob Ulrich. On defense near its own goal: Omarion Robinson, the interception; Bishop Thomas, Taylor Wein and James Nesta, the fumble recoveries; Adepoju Adebawore, 2.5 sacks, Reggie Powers III, two, and linebacker Kip Lewis; linebacker Owen Heinecke, 28 tackles, probable; tight end Trynae Washington, the short-yardage fullback, doubtful, with linemen Michael Fasusi and Fred Hinton; lineman Eddy Pierre-Louis, linebacker Cole Sullivan, defensive back Michael Boganowski, receiver Jer'Michael Carter and tight end Jack Van Dorselaer, all questionable; linebacker Taylor Heim, defensive back Jacobe Johnson and running back Xavier Robinson, out.
Where each side beats its number, and where it does not. Texas's offense is better in the red zone than its finishing percentile reads: 17 of 19, 13 touchdowns, by our count and by the official statistics alike, seven of the 13 touchdowns runs, and the misses were one interception and one fourth down. What it meets is the 4th-best finishing defense in the country, a front that allows 58% on power runs, and a red-zone defense Oklahoma's own notes rank 2nd nationally at 60%, which is 6 of 10 scoring and 3 of 10 touchdowns. The honest read of the first ladder is that Texas will get there (the 70th against the 17th, and the field-position rung, 80 against 1, is the Sooner offense's doing) and then play the Sooners' best unit at its best job, and Monday's board already priced that: the chips at the line and with the backs are Oklahoma's. The other side has no argument on it: a Sooner offense that reaches the 40 on fewer than half its drives, nine red-zone trips in four games, 33% at the goal line, two rushing touchdowns, four field goals made with none longer than 34, and a fullback doubtful, against a defense allowing 2.19 a chance, 7th in FBS, three red-zone touchdowns on 11 trips and one on three goal-to-go series. Venables's own phrase this week is "settle for field goals," and last year in Dallas Oklahoma settled twice and scored six. The kicking game is Monday's slight, intact: Spetic over Sandell, the field position over everything, and the Sooner punters and Sategna the reason it stays slight, with the 57-yard return at Neyland still the last special-teams play Texas gave up. Ten rungs today, eight to the defenses; with Tuesday's sixteen of sixteen and Wednesday's thirteen of fourteen, that is 37 of 40 this week, and the three the offenses won are Texas's getting there and starting spot and the Sooner deep ball. Wednesday's report: Smothers available, Townsend probable, Terry and Lockett doubtful, Jordan Coleman out, Filsaime back; Oklahoma 13 names, Fasusi doubtful, Pierre-Louis questionable, Heinecke probable. Monday's chips, restated unchanged: Oklahoma at the line (w6-e2); Oklahoma with the backs (w6-e3); Texas against the Sooner backs (w6-e7); Texas at the Sooner line (w6-e8); Texas, slight, on special teams and field position (w6-e11); Texas on coaching and luck (w6-e12). The call stays Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.
Our bottom line for today. Texas's offense is better close to the goal line than its overall close-range number says: 17 scores on 19 trips inside the 20, 13 touchdowns, by our count and the official statistics alike, seven of those touchdowns on runs, and the two misses were one interception and one failed fourth down. What it runs into is the fourth-best close-range defense in the country, a front that stops short-yardage runs better than all but 18, and a red-zone defense Oklahoma's own notes rank second in the country, having allowed scores on 6 of 10 trips and touchdowns on 3. The honest reading of the first chart is that Texas will get close (it gets there far more often than Oklahoma's opponents usually do, and the field-position row is Oklahoma's own offense handing over the ball) and then meet Oklahoma's best unit doing its best job, and Monday's board already allowed for that: the picks at the line of scrimmage and with the running backs went to Oklahoma. The other side has no argument on it: an Oklahoma offense that gets to the 40 on fewer than half its drives, has been inside the 20 nine times in four games, converts one short-yardage run in three, has two rushing touchdowns all season, has made four field goals with none longer than 34 yards, and has its fullback doubtful, against a Texas defense that allows fewer points from close range than all but six in the country, three touchdowns on 11 trips inside its 20 and one on three first downs inside its 10. Venables's own phrase this week is "settle for field goals," and last year in Dallas Oklahoma settled twice and scored six points. The kicking game is Monday's slight edge, intact: Spetic over Sandell, the field position over everything, and Oklahoma's punters and Sategna the reason it stays slight, with the 57-yard return at Tennessee still the last special-teams play Texas gave up. Ten rows today, eight to the defenses; with Tuesday's sixteen of sixteen and Wednesday's thirteen of fourteen, that is 37 of 40 this week, and the three the offenses won are Texas getting close, Texas's starting spot, and Oklahoma's long-pass game. Wednesday's injury list: Smothers available, Townsend probable, Terry and Lockett doubtful, Jordan Coleman out, Filsaime back; Oklahoma 13 names, Fasusi doubtful, Pierre-Louis a coin flip, Heinecke probable. Monday's picks do not change: Oklahoma at the line of scrimmage, Oklahoma with the running backs, Texas against Oklahoma's running backs, Texas at Oklahoma's line, a slight Texas edge on special teams and field position, Texas on coaching and luck. The score we picked stays Texas 24, Oklahoma 15.
Updated Oct 8, before publication on the site, after the Layer 2 fact-check: the Texas State strip-sack in the opener was Maraad Watson's, with Simmons the recovery, not Simmons's; the one sack that stood on Tennessee's last drive was Biles's, and Umeozulu's strip came on the drive before it; the Texas defense wins four of its five rungs by 50 or more, not three; Townsend has missed two games, not three; Pierre-Louis and Robinson were available on Tuesday's ledger, not Monday's block; Filsaime at the roster's DB; the 2013 note, the SEC's word on the onside kick and Wingo's miss, the waved-off Bishop return and the special-teams snap counts added from the Statesman; the fumbles-lost disagreement stated as two official tallies against each other. Every status is in our availability ledger for the week, both teams.Updated Oct 8, after our fact-check and before this page went on the site: the fumble in the opener was forced by Maraad Watson, with Simmons recovering, not by Simmons; the one sack that counted on Tennessee's last drive was Biles's, with Umeozulu's coming on the drive before; Texas's defense wins four of its five rows by a wide margin, not three; Townsend has missed two games, not three; Pierre-Louis and Robinson were listed available on Tuesday, not Monday; Filsaime is listed as a defensive back; the conference's admission on the onside kick, Wingo's miss, the called-back Bishop return and the special-teams snap counts were added; and the disagreement over Texas's lost fumbles is between two official counts. Every status is in our injury ledger for the week, both teams. Sources: the committed 2026 snapshots (data/2026/week6: advanced stats for all 138 FBS teams, every percentile computed against them, direction-aware, Texas and Oklahoma four games in against a field that has played five; season, player and special-teams stats for both teams; Oklahoma's four game boxes; positions from the committed rosters, and where the stats file spells a name differently the roster wins), the play-by-play of Texas's games against Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA and Tennessee (data/2026/week1 to week4, postgame files: red-zone trips, goal-to-go series, power runs, kickoffs, punts, returns and turnovers), Texas's official season statistics (through Sept 28: red-zone results both ways, kickoffs, punting, returns) and Texas's Oklahoma game notes (Oct 6: the red-zone tables, the net-punting and return rankings, Spetic), Oklahoma's official season statistics (through Sept 26: red-zone results, Sandell's and Rudd's kickoffs, the punters, Sategna) and Oklahoma's Texas game notes (Oct 5: eight of nine in the red zone, the rankings box, the specialists and the depth chart; its line crediting Sandell with 42- and 41-yarders at Georgia is contradicted by the cumulative statistics and the Georgia box, which show no field goal in that game, and is not used), the SEC's Wednesday availability report read from the conference's own feed (posted Oct 7, 7:10 PM CT) and as carried by Hook'em Headlines (Oct 7, 8:35 PM), Texas Longhorns On SI (Oct 7, 7:28 PM), Burnt Orange Nation (Oct 7, 8:22 PM), Inside Texas (Oct 7, 7:13 PM), the Statesman (Oct 7, 8:36 PM), Sooners On SI (Oct 7, 7:32 PM), The Oklahoman via Yahoo (Oct 7, 7:36 PM: Heinecke's hamstring and 28 tackles, Fasusi's shoulder) and Sooners Wire via Yahoo (Oct 7, 8:58 PM: Robinson, Washington's role); the Wednesday teleconferences via Inside Texas (Sarkisian, Oct 7, 1:44 PM), The Oklahoman via Yahoo (Venables, Oct 7, 2:14 PM: the pressure answer and the red-zone passage, which the piece does not tie to a day; we date it to the week) and Sooners On SI (Oct 7, 11:22 AM); the Statesman (Oct 5: Sarkisian on special-teams depth, the 2013 note); VegasInsider (the Wednesday 7:50 PM CT grid) and ScoresAndOdds (the spread's path through −8.5). The SP+ special-teams ratings are from the committed pre-Week-5 file; nothing else on this page rests on it. Definitions, including points per scoring opportunity as the red-zone stand-in and power success as the goal-line proxy, in the Data Dictionary. The SEC's Thursday report is this evening; Friday's Walkthrough reads it.